Baker Mayfield Trade value and the QBOTF

[bruceb]

12 minutes ago, Empire Lies said:

It would be interesting to see where a QB like Derek Carr would take the Stefanski offense. He has some goldilocks QB traits to him where his game falls off a cliff under pressure.

So does Mayfield's and most every other QB's.

[Kiwibrown]

If we want to keep Baker, he have to come up with some ways to deal with his lack of ability to see over the pocket, they need to consult with Drew Brees or something baout protections and pocket movement.

drew is nearly an inch shorter than Baker, but he didn't have problems with the pocket the way Baker does. 

If the pocket collapses, Baker cant throw in it like Brady or whoever can, he just shrinks and takes the sack if he cant escape. 

[cortes02]

I am one of Bakers biggest detractors but people bringing up Daniel Jones as a viable option.........

 

Peace!!!

[Empire Lies]

38 minutes ago, bruceb said:

So does Mayfield's and most every other QB's.

Your response misses what's implicit to the point that I was making about Derek Carr.

That is, there are generally 3 types of QBs when it comes to pressure:

1.) QBs whose play quality falls off a bit on average under pressure relative to their peers.

2.) QBs whose play quality falls off substantially on average under pressure relative to their peers

3.) QBs whose play quality falls off a cliff under pressure relative to their peers.

 

Therefore, while all QBs play quality regresses to certain extent under pressure not all play under pressure is equal.

For Derek Carr, analytically he's been in that 3rd group. His play under pressure paired with his inability to make big plays outside of structure has left many with the perception of him as not having many paths to elite play. His elite play path then all rest upon his decision making, critical down and distance plays, accuracy, and ability to make explosive plays.

That limited pathway to elite or high quality play is the same narrow pathway that Baker Mayfield has to walk. It's tough not to fall off that narrow path as there isn't much margin for failure as it's tough to always be accurate, make explosive plays, make great decisions, and thrive on critical downs.

To be fair to Carr though, he's walked that path well this year and has been playing a really high level in a sustainable way.

[Empire Lies]

34 minutes ago, cortes02 said:

I am one of Bakers biggest detractors but people bringing up Daniel Jones as a viable option........

Peace!!!

In time .. 

[NateDawg]

Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are obvious upgrades where basically every team in the league would and should be interested. So you would be foolish not to want those guys. Probably not realistic though.

Outside of that, I don’t see anyone that I would be willing to go hard after to replace a guy who has had more success here than anyone else in a long time. He has shown enough that giving up on him when he is playing with an injury would be pretty rash. Especially when there is no urgency and you can see what he can do when healthy, with year five control.

I don’t get the fascination here with the Deshaun Watson. Sure he’s a good QB. If by “exonerated” we are talking about things being disproven, sure. Good luck disproving the number of girls we are talking about though. If exonerated means “not enough evidence for charges/settlements made”, that’s not exonerated and only proves that he has money. We don’t need that dark cloud over Lake Erie. We aren’t desperate enough to go that route. 

The rest of those options are just not clear upgrades and most are apparent downgrades. I don’t even know what to say about the Daniel Jones name other than that’s some serious Alice in Wonderland type of **** right there. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 hour ago, NateDawg said:

Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are obvious upgrades where basically every team in the league would and should be interested. So you would be foolish not to want those guys. Probably not realistic though.

Yep.  If we can get one of those two, sure, let’s talk.

1 hour ago, NateDawg said:

Outside of that, I don’t see anyone that I would be willing to go hard after to replace a guy who has had more success here than anyone else in a long time. He has shown enough that giving up on him when he is playing with an injury would be pretty rash. Especially when there is no urgency and you can see what he can do when healthy, with year five control.

Agreed.  Let’s just cut to the chase.  He’s here and our starter next season unless it’s one of the two guys above. His nearly 20 million dollar salary is guaranteed.

1 hour ago, NateDawg said:

I don’t get the fascination here with the Deshaun Watson. Sure he’s a good QB. If by “exonerated” we are talking about things being disproven, sure. Good luck disproving the number of girls we are talking about though. If exonerated means “not enough evidence for charges/settlements made”, that’s not exonerated and only proves that he has money. We don’t need that dark cloud over Lake Erie. We aren’t desperate enough to go that route. 

Yeah this is what I was getting at earlier but didn’t wanna delve into then.  There’s no getting “exonerated” from 20 something women from all over the country who are all unknown to one another making the same claim. When 20 something people claim you did something over a period of years, you did it.

He’s a great football player, but I don’t care to root for the guy personally.

1 hour ago, NateDawg said:

The rest of those options are just not clear upgrades and most are apparent downgrades. I don’t even know what to say about the Daniel Jones name other than that’s some serious Alice in Wonderland type of **** right there. 

100%.

[Empire Lies]

3 hours ago, NateDawg said:

I don’t get the fascination here with the Deshaun Watson. Sure he’s a good QB. If by “exonerated” we are talking about things being disproven, sure. Good luck disproving the number of girls we are talking about though.

If exonerated means “not enough evidence for charges/settlements made”, that’s not exonerated and only proves that he has money. We don’t need that dark cloud over Lake Erie. We aren’t desperate enough to go that route. 

I've made the point that "exonerated" in my mind would be the 1st option not the 2nd as indeed that's not truly exonerated in my mind. Also, I've mentioned that I see that as a remote possibility at this point.

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If you were forced to choose out of these are your options, which one do you go with:

1.) 4-5, 1st Rounders + Players + other valuable draft capital for Russell Wilson

2.) 3, 1st Rounders for Aaron Rodgers

3.) Meet Baker's demands of a Josh Allen type of contract (assuming his agents demand that security after the season)

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3 hours ago, NateDawg said:

The rest of those options are just not clear upgrades and most are apparent downgrades. I don’t even know what to say about the Daniel Jones name other than that’s some serious Alice in Wonderland type of **** right there. 

Yeah, none are clear upgrades outside of Wilson and Rodgers.

With Jones, I agree to disagree.

If you've been down the rabbit hole on his All22 over the years like I have, you'd see that in time ....

[MWil23]

The eye test athletic and not SPARQ athletic Top 5 draft pick and copious potential charlatan Daniel Jones shall lead us with his more turnovers than games played roller coaster of mediocrity and replace the small Ric Flair "hee hee-ing" small handed leader of men and fit like a glove on O.J. Simpson into Stefanski's offense. IT IS NIGH!

[buno67]

11 hours ago, Empire Lies said:

Article was actually written after the 2nd game of the season.

So the season started in June? I click on the article and it states 

By Sam Monson
Jul 6, 2021

(is their a summer season I’m not aware of)

Also when I read the article until it cuts me off cause I don’t pay for PFF it doesn’t talk about anything from this season. You either are completely wrong or you’re linking the wrong article 

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, buno67 said:

o the season started in June? I click on the article and it states 

By Sam Monson
Jul 6, 2021

Empire Lies is a charlatan derp confirmed

[Empire Lies]

1 hour ago, buno67 said:

So the season started in June? I click on the article and it states 

By Sam Monson
Jul 6, 2021

(is their a summer season I’m not aware of)

Also when I read the article until it cuts me off cause I don’t pay for PFF it doesn’t talk about anything from this season. You either are completely wrong or you’re linking the wrong article 

Oops. My mistake. That's on me. My bad.

Linked the wrong one: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-daniel-jones-taylor-heinicke-thursday-night-football-future-franchise-quarterback-2021

The article I linked in the prior post was alluded to and discussed in the article I meant to link.

No Premium PFF, not supporting the analytical sports industrial complex, and frequently rejecting the truthful wonders of All22 Baker Analysis; you have shamed the good name of Paul DePodesta. Shame! Shame upon thee!

-------

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

Empire Lies is a charlatan derp confirmed

 

With tonight's game nigh and the Mullens prophecy fulfillment upon thee, so much is on the mind of we that have taken the Nick Mullensian cloth. Less important matters can be confused easily.

Our new king and hero shall step in after Keenum leaves the game due to bad gas and King Mullens will nay miss a start for the next 8 years of ebullient bliss.

Prepare thineselves.

[MWil23]

According to PFF:

Baker Mayfield is a 70.4

Daniel Jones is a 74.2

Let's look at the stats:

Baker: 6 TD, 3 INT, 67.1% completion, 97.8 passer rating

Jones: 4 TD, 4 INT, 62.5% completion, 83.1 passer rating

Those extra 13 rushing attempts for an extra 126 yards and 1 extra TD really close that gap though...and those PPG that he's helping put up in NY really show how valuable he is.

[MWil23]

Poor Empire Lies really decided to come back join the forum at the wrong time and apparently just discovered PFF this year:

I wonder what he thought of last year...

[Empire Lies]

46 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

According to PFF:

Baker Mayfield is a 70.4

Daniel Jones is a 74.2

Let's look at the stats:

Baker: 6 TD, 3 INT, 67.1% completion, 97.8 passer rating

Jones: 4 TD, 4 INT, 62.5% completion, 83.1 passer rating

Those extra 13 rushing attempts for an extra 126 yards and 1 extra TD really close that gap though...and those PPG that he's helping put up in NY really show how valuable he is.

The derpian boxscore scout in you is remarkable. "Let's look at the boxscore stats," stop it. 

The stats in aggregate don't tell the story of each game for Baker nor do they for Jones; that is, is why analytical grades in aggregate which incorporate traditional football scouting analysis as well as analytical metrics (i.e., big time throws, under pressure) exists.

Furthermore, it's the context of play that matters as well: a 75 grade as a QB on the Buccaneers isn't the same as a 75 grade on the Cowboys ... or the Browns... and so on and so on. Also, in a 6 game sample size, there is outlier data that skews grades as Daniel Jones post-concussion game is the outlier that heavily skews his grade negatively based on this year's sample whereas Baker data has a less skewed and more evenly distributed distribution (which means he's mostly played the same all year and that's despite certain games being great boxscore wise and others not).

The question when discerning between players in a projection based analysis is simple: Replace one with the other and project who would perform better given the same contextual and environmental factors. Such an analysis takes into account a wide-variety of variables including past performance, traits analysis, trait-offensive scheme fit, analytical metrics, etc.

I've made my points about Daniel Jones and why his high variance play ability (i.e., big time throw metrics, 3rd down conversion metrics, out of structure metrics) as indicated through analytical metrics and traditional football scouting analysis, his running and scramble prowess, intangibles, trait-scheme fit with Stefanski's offense, and more give me reasons to think that he could thrive in this Browns context more so relative to Baker Mayfield.

It's not a certainty, but it's certainly plausible. 

I've stated my reasons prior in previous posts.

Your charlatan nature will not allow you to grasp the wonders of its truth. 

Sad.

How dare you not accept the light of truth. How dare ye not give your heart to king Daniel Jones. He will extend his hand but once; he shant offer it again.

One day in the future  .. ner nigh the Truth of things shall reveal itself to you ...

 

-----------------------

  

15 hours ago, Empire Lies said:

According to Jones PFF and analytical profile, he's one of the highest variance QBs in the league meaning his big time throw and high level of play is elite of the elite an his low level play is bottom tier. In contrast, Baker Mayfield's play historically is relatively low variance. It's about going beyond the boxscore.

Jones thrived to a great extent year 1 despite rookie year mistakes and has been surrounded by some of the worst talent in the league then and thereafter.

Year 2 on he's played with literally the worst OLine rated group in the league the majority of the time.

He played through high ankle sprains, partially torn hamstring, and throwing shoulder injuries last year

His WRs the majority of the time: Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepherd

His RBs the majority of the time: Wayne Gallman, UFA type talents, and some time with Saquon Barkley before injury (he's injured again)

TEs: Evan Engram (who was out more than half the prior years)

Before his concussion this year and the Giants string of injuries, he had the 2nd highest analytical passing grade behind Tom Brady and was great against pressure.

The low-end of Daniel Jones play is driven by holding onto the ball too long trying to make a play, too many turnover worthy plays, and sack fumbles. Stefanski's offense and schemed low degree of difficulty throws for QBs would help mitigate that low end play. Then, Jones has the requisite running ability that threatens the edges and keeps defenders in the box to open up passing lanes in the play action and boot game.

I'm not saying it's a certainty that Jones is better than Baker in this offense, I'm saying that if I had to gamble on Daniel Jones versus Baker over the next 3 years with Stefanski and this surrounding talent, I'd bet that Jones will be better and if Baker was on the Giants they'd be worse.

If the string of young talented QBs in the league has taught us anything it is that when a QB works hard and is committed to the game, has Big time throw prowess, and running prowess you bet on that talent because of the high end play especially when one can build the team around them in winning ways. Their inaccuracies, turnover worthy plays, and more are often offset by their high end play.

 

18 hours ago, Empire Lies said:

Beyond boxscore scouting and/or ugly moments with the lack of pocket awareness, Daniel Jones has almost all the tools.

 

17 hours ago, Empire Lies said:

In the Stefanski Offense with these pieces and Daniel Jones' running prowess and big time throw ability, I honestly think Daniel Jones would be better than Baker Mayfield as Jones' deficiencies and limitations that are manifest when surrounded by bad football talent would be minimized in this Offense.

And that's just from me watching the Giants and family convos discussing Jones' play given family used to work for that organization.

If we switched Jones on the Browns and Baker on the Giants, would the play be of equal quality or lean towards someone performing better?

I'm of the opinion that Baker would've struggled more than Jones given the Giants worst OLine in the league and lack of playmakers and Daniel Jones would've at least played as well as Baker on the Browns if not better. Thus, I think Jones is slightly better though I know most would disagree.

 

14 hours ago, Empire Lies said:

Article was actually written after the 2nd game of the season.

This season, as I said Jones was top 2 in passing grade, pressure performance then and top 3 in big time throws. Including the 2 games after Washington he was still top 6 in this metrics until his concussion at Dallas the week after this year and the rash of injuries the Giants experienced. So, that contextualizes this year thus far. 

Linked the article just as a representative example of more nuanced thought regarding Jones' play prior to this season that is a sentiment out there in the analytics communities, especially those that are categorizing QBs in the High Variance (Great to Really Bad) Versus Low Variance (Average to Good) where Jones by a host of metrics is one of those high variance QBs.

This harkens back to the scouting axiom of "when the player is young and works hard at the game, give more value to the high level flashes b/c that means the player can do it."

I've looked at the advanced metrics and analytics and I've made the nuanced points about Jones' issues relative to his strengths and how I believe that would play out in this offense.