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Week 10 Thread: The one with THAT AP Poll


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GOOD NEWS: MACTION IS BACK!

Saturday, Nov. 6

Army at Air Force | 11:30 a.m. | CBS
Liberty at No. 15 Ole Miss | 12 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 6 Ohio State at Nebraska | 12 p.m. | FOX
Kansas State at Kansas | 12 p.m. | FS1
No. 10 Wake Forest at North Carolina | 12 p.m. | ABC
Pitt at Duke | 12 p.m. | ACC Network
No. 23 SMU at Memphis | 12 p.m. | ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at UAB | 12 p.m. | CBSSN
Illinois at Minnesota | 12 p.m. | ESPN2
Missouri at No. 1 Georgia | 12:30 p.m. | ESPN
Georgia Tech at Miami | 12:30 p.m. | ESPN3
Appalachian State at Arkansas State | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
Idaho State at No. 17 BYU | 3 p.m. | ESPN3
North Texas at Southern Miss | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
Temple at East Carolina | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
UL Monroe at Texas State | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
Cal at Arizona | 3 p.m. | Pac-12 Network
Tulsa at No. 2 Cincinnati | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN2
Navy at No. 8 Notre Dame | 3:30 p.m. | NBC
Rice at Charlotte | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | 3:30 p.m. | Stadium
South Alabama at Troy | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
Rhode Island at UMass | 3:30 p.m. | FloSports
No. 22 Penn State at Maryland | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
No. 11 Oklahoma State at West Virginia | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 5 Michigan State at Purdue | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 14 Baylor at TCU | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
No. 12 Auburn at No. 13 Texas A&M | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
Wisconsin at Rutgers | 3:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
Colorado State at Wyoming | 3:30 p.m. | CBSSN
Mississippi State at Arkansas | 4 p.m. | SEC Network
Utah State at New Mexico State | 4 p.m. | FloSports
NC State at Florida State | 4 p.m. | ACC Network
Tulane at UCF | 4 p.m. | ESPNU
No. 21 Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern | 6 p.m. | ESPN+
Marshall at FAU | 6 p.m. | CBSSN Facebook
Tennessee at No. 18 Kentucky | 7 p.m. | ESPN2
Oregon State at Colorado | 7 p.m. | Pac-12 Network
Old Dominion at Florida International | 7 p.m. | ESPN3
Boise State at Fresno State | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
LSU at No. 3 Alabama | 7 p.m. | ESPN or CBS
Iowa at Northwestern | 7 p.m. | Big Ten Network 
UNLV at New Mexico | 7 p.m. | Stadium
No. 7 Oregon at Washington | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
Texas at Iowa State | 7:30 p.m. | FS1
Florida at South Carolina | 7:30 p.m. | SEC Network
Indiana at No. 9 Michigan | 7:30 p.m. | FOX
Clemson at Louisville | 7:30 p.m. | ACC Network
Houston at South Florida | 7:30 p.m. | ESPNU
USC at Arizona State | 9:30 p.m. | ESPN
San Jose State at Nevada | 10 p.m. | FS2
No. 16 UTSA at UTEP | 10:15 p.m. | ESPN2
San Diego State at Hawai'i | 11 p.m. | FS1

 

AP Top 25 College Football Poll

First-place points in parentheses.

TEAM RECORD
1. Georgia (63) 8-0
2. Cincinnati 8-0
3. Alabama 7-1
4. Oklahoma 9-0
5. Michigan State 8-0
6. Ohio State 7-1
7. Oregon 7-1
8. Notre Dame 7-1
9. Michigan 7-1
10. Wake Forest 8-0
11. Oklahoma State 7-1
12. Auburn 6-2
13. Texas A&M 6-2
14. Baylor 7-1
15. Mississippi 6-2
16. UTSA 8-0
17. BYU 7-2
18. Kentucky 6-2
19. Iowa 6-2
20. Houston 7-1
21. Coastal Carolina 7-1
22. Penn State 5-3
23. SMU 7-1
24. Louisiana-Lafayette 7-1
25. Fresno State 7-2
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We are getting the first College Football Playoff rankings tonight as we head into the home stretch with just over a handful of weeks left in the season, and by my count we have (by the most realistic reaches) 14 Teams with a chance left for the playoffs. One Team is as near a lock as their could be. Then 4/5/6 more who could control their own destiny (they all dont actually, its just depending on what the committee will do) and then a decent group left with a prayer, needing some outside help. This is just alittle personal exercise for myself as we go into the stretch run, Ill break all these down by Conference;

SEC - 4 Team

Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) vMizzou, @Tennessee, v Charleston Southern, @Gerogia Tech

  • Were starting here because Georgia is the sole lock to make the playoffs at this point. Its College Football so obviously anything can happen. But with that defense, I dont think anyone left on their schedule is coming close to them until they get to the SEC Championship game (and maybe not even then). So if they get there at 12-0, they will be in the playoffs no matter the outcome of that game. They feel head and shoulders better than the rest of college football right now, and thats even with a backup QB

Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) vLSU, vNew Mexico St, vArkansas, @Auburn

  • While they have been underwhelming this year, they are still sitting pretty if they can get to the SEC Championship Game and beat Georgia. That win, along with another nice one over Auburn) would get them into the playoff. They arent out of the clear yet though, LSU is playing with nothing to lose anymore, but even fending off them and scrappy Arky, having to go on the road for the Iron Bowl this year could easily end their season. And I guess even losing that SEC Title game in an epic showdown with Georgia could sneak them in as well, but a whole lot would have to happen for them to get in as a 2 loss team.

Auburn Tigers (6-2) @Texas A&M, vMississippi St, @South Carolina, vAlabama

  • Ok, you might already be looking at me sideways, but many have tried to invoke the '07 season and if that might happen, all of these scenarios need to be explored, especially for teams sitting around/just outside the Top 10. In that case, the showdown in College Station this week is very important, as the winner will still have a glimmer of hope not only for the SEC Title game, but the Playoff as well. If Auburn can win out, that would leave them with two of the best losses in the country (at a full strength Penn St and to the undefeated Georgia) with a chance to avenge one of them for an SEC Championship. They would still likely need alittle help, with UGA locking up one of the Playoff spots, plus plenty of other Undefeateds and 1 loss teams ahead of them right now.

Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) vAuburn, @Ole Miss, vPraire View A&M, @LSU 

  • While they are an even longer shot than Auburn, if they win this week and win out, plus Auburn takes down the Iron Bowl, they will find themselves falling into the SEC Title game. And while they would have 2 worse losses than Auburn would (Arkansas & Mississippi St) plus a rough win at Colorado, it will all have been with a backup QB. And of course they would have the opportunity to have 2 of the best wins in all of college football, over Georgia and (all be it a 2 loss) Alabama. They would need just about everyone else to fall apart, as they are probably one of the last teams (if not the last) on this list.

BigTen - 3 Teams

Michigan St Spartans (8-0) @Purdue, vMaryland, @Ohio St, vPenn St

  • Well, not one person would have had them here, not after 2020, not with all the transfers in, but give Mel Tucker credit, hes got them taking care of every opponent in front of them thus far. And no matter how you slice it, an undefeated Big Ten Champion is an automatic in for the Playoff. But they aren’t quite there yet, with big bad Ohio St staring them down, on the road. Also cant look past Penn St to end the season, especially if Sean Clifford is healthy. But in the end, if they win, they are in.

Ohio St Buckeyes (7-1) @Nebraska, vPurdue, vMichigan St, @Michigan

  • Some are calling them the most dangerous team in college football right now. And that may be true, but after shooting themselves in the foot in week 2, they aren’t in the playoffs as of right now. But the path is still clear for them, keep winning and they will be in. With both MSU and Michigan still in front of them, they can set themselves up as a 1 loss conference champion, knocking off one of the few remaining undefeateds along the way. Although, that Oregon issue is still sitting there.

Michigan Wolverines (7-1) vIndiana, @Penn St, @Maryland, v Ohio St

  • Even after a deflating loss, the Wolverines still have a path to the Playoff. They would need to take care of business, and get alittle bit of help along the way, but its still possible. If they show up in the final week with only one loss, and can finally take down OSU for the first time under Harbaugh, they could sneak their way into the Big Ten Championship. They would need OSU to take out State, and then also hope Sparty drops another one (possibly that final week vs Penn St) because they no longer have the tiebreaker. But, if that all were to happen and they take it home in Indy, a one loss Big Ten Champion would have a strong case for getting a bid.

Big XII - 3 Teams

Oklahoma Sooners (9-0) @Baylor, v Iowa St, @Oklahoma St

  • Its been unconventional, and ugly, and in spite of one of the pre-season Heisman favorites, but here they are, undefeated with only 3 regular season games left. But, those also might be some of the toughest tests they will face this year. And when they’ve already struggled with WVU, Kansas St, Nebraska, Texas, Tulane and KANSAS, nothing is assured here. Although, if they do win out, and end up undefeated, they will be in the Playoff. And honestly, even if they do drop one of these games,, if they are able to avenge that loss in the BigXII Title game, they would still have a chance to make it, but that would really require some help at that point.

Oklahoma St Cowboys (7-1) @West Virginia, vTCU, @Texas Tech, vOklahoma

  • With only a road loss on some questionable officiating, I think OK State is much more in this conversation than most do. They would still need to be the one to take down OU (not Baylor next week) not once but twice, in a row actually, but that would put them squarely in the playoff in my mind. The Committee probably wouldn’t do it, as they will chicken out and not call out bad officiating, but the Cowboys would deserve it in my mind. Although, if they beat a 1 loss Oklahoma, and a 1 loss Baylor in the Big XII title game, that could get them in too. If the BigXII winner is anyone other than undefeated Oklahoma though, they will probably need outside help to make the Playoff.

Baylor Bears (7-1) @TCU, vOklahoma, @Kansas St, vTexas Tech

  • It could be easy to not realize that Baylor is lurking around in this conversation, and while they are probably somewhere between Michigan and Texas A&M in likelihood to make the Playoffs, there is still a path if they end up as the One loss BigXII Champ. Especially if they get to avenge their one loss to OK State in the Title game, after knocking off the undefeated Oklahoma. Absolutely a long shot, but you cant shut the door on them just yet

AAC - 1 Team

Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0) vTulsa, @South Florida, vSMU, @East Carolina

  • I mean if there is going to be a year a G5 finally breaks it, its gotta be this year right? Although you could still see the committee pulling some shady stuff to keep them out. While the IU win doesn’t do anything, a road win at Notre Dame (possibly NDs only loss this year) is probably as good of a win as anyone else in the country. And now they are probably in the best shape that they will likely get the chance to beat a one loss SMU and a one loss Houston in the championship game. Both of those would be as good of secondary wins as most of the rest of the contenders. I think they should be in as long as they go undefeated, not sure they will let them though. But one slip up and nothing matters.

PAC-12 - 1 Team

Oregon Ducks (7-1) @Washington, vWashington St, @Utah, vOregon St

  • Of the teams in this conversation this team that might have the best win, also may have the worst loss. Its baffling, but its reality. But if there is any integrity in this process, as long as they have the same number of losses (or less) they have to be ahead of Ohio St in the rankings. They continue to skate by, but that doesn’t hurt them because everyone else (other than UGA) is doing the same thing. Im not sure they make it out of Utah in a few weeks, but if they do, I think they continue to box out Ohio St if it comes down to one final spot available.

ACC - 1 Team

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-0) @UNC, vNorth Carolina Sr, @Clemson, @Boston College

  • This feels weird, but Wake is in control of their own destiny. Sure they haven’t really beaten anyone all that good, but they have beaten them all. And if we have been giving Clemson the respect and reward for beating up on an underwhelming ACC for the past half decade, Wake deserves the same. Now, they have a pretty tough road ahead to finish the season, but if they do rattle off these wins, and end up undefeated ACC Champion, Id have no hesitation putting Wake Forest into the playoffs.

Independent - 1 Team

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) vNavy, @Virgina, vGeorgia Tech, @Stanford

  • The last team I feel has the most outside of outside chances (like in the outhouse) to make the Playoff is Notre Dame. If we are going to use them as the good win to help propel Cincinnati to the playoffs, means they are a pretty good team, and they have beaten everyone else on their schedule. Not one major win to hold up, but a collection of pretty solid wins that’s for sure. Not only would they need to win out, but they would need almost everyone else to lose. With the SEC locking up at least one spot, they need that to be it, leaving 3 spots for everyone else. They would then need Wake and Cinci to get their first losses, and Oregon to drop another one. Then either Oklahoma to stay undefeated, or the Big XII to cannibalize itself down the stretch. Even then, it would still need the BigTen to have a definitive winner (either undefeated Michigan St or a powerhouse Ohio St) But they could for sure end up as just the last one standing for the #4 seed in the playoffs, having one of the earliest losses of the group. They could still even get in if Cincinnati does, but that is DEFCON 1 Level of madness happening, even worse than ‘07

 

With so much still up in the air, every week will still be exciting, and Im calling for week 14 to be the madness week that will shake everything up, and make tonight’s rankings completely useless. While the SEC & BigXII should be relatively quiet that week (their focus is on the final week of the season) who is alive in the BigTen will be decided with MSU@OSU, Cincinnati will be tested at SMU, Oregon goes to Utah, and WF has to overcome Clemson. But with how College football goes, it will all blow up next week in the last “quiet week” left this year.

My Playoff Rankins for this week;

  1. Georgia Bulldogs
  2. Cincinnati Bearcats
  3. Michigan St Spartans
  4. Oregon Ducks
  5. Oklahoma Sooners
  6. Ohio St Buckeys
  7. Oklahoma St Cowboys
  8. Alabama Crimson Tide
  9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
  10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Just Missed: Michigan, Texas A&M, Auburn, Baylor, UTSA

 

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56 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

My Playoff Rankins for this week;

  1. Georgia Bulldogs
  2. Cincinnati Bearcats
  3. Michigan St Spartans
  4. Oregon Ducks
  5. Oklahoma Sooners
  6. Ohio St Buckeys
  7. Oklahoma St Cowboys
  8. Alabama Crimson Tide
  9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
  10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Just Missed: Michigan, Texas A&M, Auburn, Baylor, UTSA

Oregon over Ohio State makes sense given the H2H win.  But putting them over an undefeated Oklahoma because of that win over Ohio State seems a bit spotty given how bad their loss to Stanford was.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Oregon over Ohio State makes sense given the H2H win.  But putting them over an undefeated Oklahoma because of that win over Ohio State seems a bit spotty given how bad their loss to Stanford was.

I definitely understand that. But Oklahoma has not impressed me one single time this season. They have gotten lucky multiple times to get away with a win against below average teams. And while it may be a bit of recency bias, being that close to Kansas is never excusable.

Oklahoma has more impressive wins in front of them, if they do in-fact win those, which would catapult them ahead of Oregon who only has one above average potential win left before the PAC-12 Championship. 

When it comes down to it, being undefeated doesn’t mean you have to be ranked highest right now. The polls always follow that like a bunch of sheep, so I suspect that’s what will happen with the committee. But when actually looking at the value of each win (and losses) I still think the Ohio St win, on the road is wildly more impressive than anything Oklahoma has done, and even still outweighs the Stanford loss. 

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1 hour ago, beekay414 said:

No...no they don't.

They why do we play games? 

It’s one thing to debate completely different resumes with no crossover even. But an actual head to head game? That the road team won? Without the best Prospect from either roster on the field

So even if for some reason you think it doesn’t matter, what Ohio St win are you putting up against Oregon’s? Penn St? That isn’t on the same level. Wasn’t won as impressively. And was a home game. 

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4 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

They why do we play games? 

It’s one thing to debate completely different resumes with no crossover even. But an actual head to head game? That the road team won? Without the best Prospect from either roster on the field

So even if for some reason you think it doesn’t matter, what Ohio St win are you putting up against Oregon’s? Penn St? That isn’t on the same level. Wasn’t won as impressively. And was a home game. 

I'd put their entire resume up for debate. What's better? One win over Ohio State with a loss to a subpar team and your best non-Ohio State win is twice vs Utah or losing to Oregon and beating Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and the B1G West representative? 

If Ohio State wins out, their resume blows Oregon's out of the water. I'm not putting all the weight on an early September matchup as if it matters so much more than the entire body of work. 

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21 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I definitely understand that. But Oklahoma has not impressed me one single time this season. They have gotten lucky multiple times to get away with a win against below average teams. And while it may be a bit of recency bias, being that close to Kansas is never excusable.

Oklahoma has more impressive wins in front of them, if they do in-fact win those, which would catapult them ahead of Oregon who only has one above average potential win left before the PAC-12 Championship. 

When it comes down to it, being undefeated doesn’t mean you have to be ranked highest right now. The polls always follow that like a bunch of sheep, so I suspect that’s what will happen with the committee. But when actually looking at the value of each win (and losses) I still think the Ohio St win, on the road is wildly more impressive than anything Oklahoma has done, and even still outweighs the Stanford loss. 

I'm completely on board with Oklahoma being on the outside looking in going into the first rankings.  But if you're going to ding Oklahoma for a weak schedule and not playing well, shouldn't Cincinnati be in that group too?  But going back to Oregon, I think you're putting too much weight on a singular win and not enough on the Stanford loss or California win.

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8 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

If Ohio State wins out, their resume blows Oregon's out of the water. I'm not putting all the weight on an early September matchup as if it matters so much more than the entire body of work. 

Blows it out of the water? I don’t think so at all. Michigan and Michigan St are currently ranked so high due to the inflated false narrative of being Undefeated. If you’re assuming they are both losing to Ohio St, and they had done it in week 3 or 6 instead of Week 11 or 13, they wouldn’t even be Top 10. They have hollow resumes themselves. I don’t think they are that much better than your suggested Utah wins would be, maybe one rung higher. And when it comes down to it, Ohio St could NEVER have as good of a win as over themselves in this situation. 

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