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Week 10 Thread: The one with THAT AP Poll


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16 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Blows it out of the water? I don’t think so at all. Michigan and Michigan St are currently ranked so high due to the inflated false narrative of being Undefeated. If you’re assuming they are both losing to Ohio St, and they had done it in week 3 or 6 instead of Week 11 or 13, they wouldn’t even be Top 10. They have hollow resumes themselves. I don’t think they are that much better than your suggested Utah wins would be, maybe one rung higher. And when it comes down to it, Ohio St could NEVER have as good of a win as over themselves in this situation. 

lol if you don't think having 4 legitimate B1G wins blows whatever the hell Oregon will have has isn't blowing it out of the water, I don't know what to tell you.

And, yes, Ohio State still plays a team ranked as high as they got so they indeed CAN get a win as good as themselves.

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10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm completely on board with Oklahoma being on the outside looking in going into the first rankings.  But if you're going to ding Oklahoma for a weak schedule and not playing well, shouldn't Cincinnati be in that group too?  But going back to Oregon, I think you're putting too much weight on a singular win and not enough on the Stanford loss or California win.

I will fully admit that I put more weight on best wins. Because those are the hardest to get. Yes, surprising close wins are dings, but only small ones because you did get the win. And to me even a bad loss, doesn’t cancel out a great win.

And to answer your Cincinnati question at the same time, they have the second best win of all these teams. That is what is boosting them. Compared to Oklahoma, Cincinnati only has 2 close wins, both on the road. That Indiana win, which I said didn’t boost them at all, and the other week at Navy. Which I fee like any time you get out of Navy with a win, that’s all that matters. It’s just a different sport. While OU on the other hand, it is a clear pattern of play. They have been playing this high wire act since week one at home vs Tulane, then again vs Nebraska, again vs WVU, at KState, vs Texas, and at Kansas. The only convincing wins that Oklahoma has are at home vs Western Carolina and TCU. That’s it. If that was the resume that Cincinnati was putting together, escaping nearly every game, most of them at home, your best win being against a 5-3 Kansas State? They wouldn’t even be considered a Top 10 team yet. 

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4 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

And, yes, Ohio State still plays a team ranked as high as they got so they indeed CAN get a win as good as themselves.

Youre clearly just talking about where teams are ranked when they win. That’s just lazy. Thanks for telling me all I need to know. 

But as you’re calling out in your scenario  (which you are clearly having a BigTen bias compared to the PAC-12 atleast), Oregon will still have the Best BigTen win among the two of them. The best win. The same amount of losses. Both a Conference Championship. And oh yea the HEAD TO HEAD WIN. 

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2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Youre clearly just talking about where teams are ranked when they win. That’s just lazy. Thanks for telling me all I need to know. 

But as you’re calling out in your scenario  (which you are clearly having a BigTen bias compared to the PAC-12 atleast), Oregon will still have the Best BigTen win among the two of them. The best win. The same amount of losses. Both a Conference Championship. And oh yea the HEAD TO HEAD WIN. 

And, again, a vastly weaker resume but thanks for playing.

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3 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

And, again, a vastly weaker resume but thanks for playing.

You keep saying this, when it just isn’t true. The best case scenario for OSU in a Big Ten Title game is Minnesota again, but according to your own logic, that’s not impressive because a double win for Oregon Vs Utah wouldn’t be good enough. And if it’s Wisconsin, they aren’t any better than who Oregon plays in their title game 

So now we’re down to 3 “legitimate” Big Ten wins, one of those I’m guessing you’re counting Penn St? Who already has 3 losses (Utah says hi) and if that’s the worst they are, they will eat into the other wins you are counting on (MSU and UM). 

I’ll give you Michigan St, let’s say Ohio St is their only loss (knocks down PSU more). Call that a marquee win if you’d like. But theN You are counting on Michigan holding their stance as a top win. Which with another loss to OSU at the very least, starts to drop.

So at best you are talking 2 top tier wins (if Michigan holds on to that level) to Oregon’s 1 by your measure. And again, that 1 win is against Ohio St.

Doesnt separate them enough to over come that game

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29 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

You keep saying this, when it just isn’t true. The best case scenario for OSU in a Big Ten Title game is Minnesota again, but according to your own logic, that’s not impressive because a double win for Oregon Vs Utah wouldn’t be good enough. And if it’s Wisconsin, they aren’t any better than who Oregon plays in their title game 

So now we’re down to 3 “legitimate” Big Ten wins, one of those I’m guessing you’re counting Penn St? Who already has 3 losses (Utah says hi) and if that’s the worst they are, they will eat into the other wins you are counting on (MSU and UM). 

I’ll give you Michigan St, let’s say Ohio St is their only loss (knocks down PSU more). Call that a marquee win if you’d like. But theN You are counting on Michigan holding their stance as a top win. Which with another loss to OSU at the very least, starts to drop.

So at best you are talking 2 top tier wins (if Michigan holds on to that level) to Oregon’s 1 by your measure. And again, that 1 win is against Ohio St.

Doesnt separate them enough to over come that game

I think you're having a hard time grasping that wins and losses aren't always equal. Utah's losses are BYU, San Diego State and Oregon State. Wisconsin's are Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan. Also, Utah would end up with 5 losses in this scenario so, no, no hello Utah lmao. 

Yes, beating Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with a loss to a 1-loss Oregon is considerably better than beating Ohio State, Utah (x2) and Fresno State while losing to a hapless Stanford team. That loss, and their on field performance vs Cal, carries far more weight than you're letting on. 

It doesn't really matter though, Oregon will drop another game.

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18 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I will fully admit that I put more weight on best wins. Because those are the hardest to get. Yes, surprising close wins are dings, but only small ones because you did get the win. And to me even a bad loss, doesn’t cancel out a great win.

And to answer your Cincinnati question at the same time, they have the second best win of all these teams. That is what is boosting them. Compared to Oklahoma, Cincinnati only has 2 close wins, both on the road. That Indiana win, which I said didn’t boost them at all, and the other week at Navy. Which I fee like any time you get out of Navy with a win, that’s all that matters. It’s just a different sport. While OU on the other hand, it is a clear pattern of play. They have been playing this high wire act since week one at home vs Tulane, then again vs Nebraska, again vs WVU, at KState, vs Texas, and at Kansas. The only convincing wins that Oklahoma has are at home vs Western Carolina and TCU. That’s it. If that was the resume that Cincinnati was putting together, escaping nearly every game, most of them at home, your best win being against a 5-3 Kansas State? They wouldn’t even be considered a Top 10 team yet. 

The problem is a loss is still a loss.  You can't just throw it out the window.  If Oklahoma would have lost to any of the teams they narrowly lost to, how far would they be down the rankings?  They'd probably in the teens somewhere.  But they managed to win even on a bad day.  Oregon has one marquee win, a bad loss against Stanford, and them dragging their feet against Cal and UCLA.  Aside from their win over Ohio State, what is Oregon's calling card?  IF you're gonna ignore their loss against Stanford, you need to be able to make an argument without citing the Ohio State matchup.

Cincinnati's biggest issue is SOS.  There's no way you can argue SOS in favor of them.  They're ranked 43rd according to Team Rankings.  Oklahoma at 30 and Oregon at 32 are the only one who is close.  But the problem is that Cincinnati doesn't have anything remaining on it's schedule to drastically change that appearance.  SMU is the only team with a winning record left on their schedule.  Oklahoma has Baylor and Oklahoma State.  Cincinnati being at 6 is probably a pretty strong indicator that they're not getting in without some help.  You've got Georgia/Alabama as a shoe-in.  And if Alabama narrowly beats Georgia, you're probably going to see 2 SEC teams again.  Oklahoma wins out, they'll make it in.  And at that point, you've probably got Ohio State/Michigan State decide who represents the Big 10 in the playoffs.  Even if Oregon doesn't lose another game, they're going to have to get a ton of style points to make it in the playoffs IMO.  Plus, they probably prefer Ohio State beat Michigan State.

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On 11/3/2021 at 2:39 PM, CWood21 said:

The problem is a loss is still a loss.  You can't just throw it out the window. 

 

True to a certain point. An early season non-conference loss has a lot less sting than a mid to late season conference loss. It is easier to make up ground and put together convincing "We got better" wins. Also being undefeated in your conference has a chance to give you that extra Championship game against a (normally) ranked opponent for a bit more CFP juice. 

MC

 

 

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