Which QB would you draft in the 2nd?

[Karnage84]

• BTT% = Big Time Throw %
• TWP% = Turnover Worthy Play %
• ADOT = Average Depth of Target
• DRP% = Drops by receiver %

Pulling in some PFF stats for the 2022 class. Going to add some other guys periodically. Maybe our Joe Burrow is out there (probably not) but worth digging into the class. I'm going to cheer for Sam Hartman after watching him on QB1. He just seems like a good dude and apparently a heck of a football player. His size is definitely going to play a factor in how high he goes. 

Kenny Pickett - 6'3, 220 LBS

• BTT%: 6.4%
• TWP%: 2.1
• ADOT: 10.0
• DRP%: 10.7%

Sam Hartman - 6'1, 208 LBS

• BTT: 6.3%
• TWP%: 1.6%
• ADOT: 13.0
• DRP%: 7.1%

 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

• BTT% = Big Time Throw %
• TWP% = Turnover Worthy Play %
• ADOT = Average Depth of Target
• DRP% = Drops by receiver %

Pulling in some PFF stats for the 2022 class. Going to add some other guys periodically. Maybe our Joe Burrow is out there (probably not) but worth digging into the class. I'm going to cheer for Sam Hartman after watching him on QB1. He just seems like a good dude and apparently a heck of a football player. His size is definitely going to play a factor in how high he goes. 

Kenny Pickett - 6'3, 220 LBS

• BTT%: 6.4%
• TWP%: 2.1
• ADOT: 10.0
• DRP%: 10.7%

Sam Hartman - 6'1, 208 LBS

• BTT: 6.3%
• TWP%: 1.6%
• ADOT: 13.0
• DRP%: 7.1%

 

 

I feel like comp % is a stat that carries over to the NFL, at least if its a negative.  With that I struggle to want anyone under 60% comp and Hartman has never been above 59%, which this year is his best year. It says a lot about decision making.  Throw in Picket is at 67% and has been over 60 all but his freshman year.  Hartman does throw more deep balls it seems based on your numbers but still makes me nervous.  Maybe in the 4th/5th but not early. 

[Karnage84]

29 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I feel like comp % is a stat that carries over to the NFL, at least if its a negative.  With that I struggle to want anyone under 60% comp and Hartman has never been above 59%, which this year is his best year. It says a lot about decision making.  Throw in Picket is at 67% and has been over 60 all but his freshman year.  Hartman does throw more deep balls it seems based on your numbers but still makes me nervous.  Maybe in the 4th/5th but not early. 

I feel like the turnover worthy plays (which may or may not have resulted in a turnover) is indicative of decision making. Forcing a bad throw (which either results in a turnover or doesn't) says a lot more to me about decision making than just completion percentage. Completion percentage also doesn't factor in drop rate, which can be something plaguing a QB/offense if he's surrounded by poor WR talent. 

All of these things are just small windows into what could be and it's an extremely limited sample size (2 guys) but what I do like about Hartman is - fewer TWP's, equivalent BTT's and much better ADOT. However, this will get rounded out by his size and drop %(combined with completion percentage). 

From what I've read, there are questions on Pickett's arm strength. 

I haven't done a comparison of PFF college rankings and how that compares to their success in the NFL. Busy time of year (business + baby) but maybe I'll be able to cut out some time to satisfy my own curiousity between now and April. 

[diehardlionfan]

As I’ve mentioned previously I’m not a fan of any of these guys early.

Completion% is a stat I look at. In Hartmann case if you look at every stat line by year, he has improved every category, each year.

For me, that lessens concern of his sub 60% completion percentage.