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A Thought Experiment On Changes To Make


Thaiphoon

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Ok - @Doc Draper wrote an excellent post with which I agree 100%.

He didn't want to get into the nitty gritty (leaving it to professionals).  = 

And since the drugs (prescription) have me a bit loopy, allow me to delve into that nitty gritty a bit with an implausible scenario (admittedly I'm not looking at contracts so bear with me). 

This is a thought experiment on possible ways to improve the team. 

And yes, it DOES involve a bit of blowing the team up in spots.

Front Office

Bruce = Fired. Run out on a rail...etc... along with any of his suck ups

Coaches

Jay = Bye Bye. Poor situational awareness. Poor discipline from his teams. Teams are never prepared to play.

Manusky = I generally like the guy but a new coach may want his own DC. Either way, I want a guy who will change us back to the 4-3.

 

Players

So let's go through defense first:

CBs 

Norman, Breeland, Moreau, Dunny, Fuller, Holsey => KEEP (one of our strengths on defense)

S

DJ, Nicholson, Everett, McClure = KEEP (I can work with this guys and they don't cost much)

OLB

Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson, Carter = KEEP (the first 2 are no brainers - the others are for upside)

Gallette = Bye Bye. Let him walk. 

MLB

Foster, JHC, Spaight = KEEP

Brown = SIGN (but not for too much given his inability to cover a table)

Compton = Bye Bye. (I generally like hard working guys who are cerebral. But his physical limitations kill me)

DL

JAllen, Ioaniddis, Hood, Murphy, Lanier, Francis = KEEP (the first two are no brainers. Hood is a solid guy and the last three have upside)

McClain, McGee = Bye ByeThese guys stink on ice. I know we just signed them, but we need to move them. Like yesterday. So either trade them or cut them.

 

Now here's where I tick off some of the Redskins faithful = the offense.

OL

NSekhe, Long, Moses, Scherff, Roullier, Catalina = KEEP (the first 4 because they can play - the latter 2 because they have upside).

Lavauo = Bye Bye  (are you kidding me???)

Trent Williams = TRADE/KEEP @lavar703 had a good idea that I'm still toying with. I'm vacillating between the two. On one hand I want to keep him to protect the QBs blindspot. On the other hand, he is aging and is probably worth a 1st to some LT-needy team. Lavar brought up the Pats. That might be a good spot to trade him for a 2019 - 1st.

WR

Crowder = KEEP 

Doctson = TRADE (he's a bust but someone else might overpay for him)

Grant = Bye Bye

Pryor = TRADE (or let him walk in the offseason)

Quick = ???? (Is he on the team??)

TE

Davis, Sprinkle = KEEP

Paul = Bye Bye

Reed = TRADE (he's never healthy and availability beats ability in this league. Yes, he's a beast. But he's enough of one to get serious trade offers).

RB

CT, *Brown = KEEP (*bring back Brown)

Perine = HOLD  (Watch him for one more year. If he doesn't improve in camp, cut him)

Kelley = Bye Bye

 

Which brings me to... 

QB

Colt = KEEP (he's a decent backup who can win you a game here or there)

Kirk = He's gonna walk (this organization has pooped the bed in terms of how they have handled the contract negotiations. This relationship is irreparably damaged and he's going to walk. And if he doesn't walk, he continues to play on the tag - which is not a good long-term strategy. At least this way, along with other players, he can help us by signing a big contract elsewhere and getting us a 3rd round comp pick. Your argument is that he would get us a 2nd at least or maybe a 1st? Yeah? On what planet? I think he's worth it. But other teams are going to be negotiating from a position of strength. Because in order for us to trade him we have to sign him to the tag and it will cost us $30+M. So other teams will know we need to get rid of the contract. And will underbid or simply wait yet another year - or draft their own QB).

 

----

So assuming we get a 1st and 2nd for Trent and Reed and maybe a 4th for Doctson, we have enough to move around in the 1st in 2018. Or it allows us to move back and build up 1st rounders in 2019 and get our QB then. We still would need the following (besides QB)

WR

RB

OL

TE

DL

LB 

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^^^ Admittedly this would never happen. I'm just brainstorming on how best we can help the team long-term by selling guys high before they drop off and we get nothing from them. 

 

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I pretty much agree with you on everything, give or take a couple of players (still not ready to give up Doctson for a 4th rounder). But I’m not in the Fire Jay camp just yet. If we’re not going to continue with Kirk Cousins, I want to give Gruden a chance at his own QB. Gruden has turned Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins into Pro Bowl QBs. If we’re going to start out with a new QB to lead this team, Gruden is still the coach you want. I know he’s not perfect but believe me, we could do A LOT worse.

Otherwise, I’m completely on board with your moves.

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Good post.  Only things I don't really agree with are:

- I wouldn't trade Trent Williams.  I just don't agree with trading guys that might be the best in the NFL in what they do.  

- I don't agree with trading Jordan Reed, see Trent Williams.  

- I wouldn't resign Breeland.  He's too inconsistent and we spent 3rds on Fuller and Moreau.  

- You have Trent Murphy listed as a Dlineman, I would only bring him back if the price was right.  He's coming off a major injury and has only produced when juiced.  

- I don't see the point in trading Doctson, he's probably worth more to us that anyone will pay. 

- I'm pretty sure Mack Brown is gone.  I'm cool with bringing back Chris Thompson and cleaning house at the RB position.

- I see no reason whatsoever to bring Colt McCoy back.  Especially if Gruden is gone.

 

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To start off we need a new GM. Give me Nick Caserio or Louis Riddick. With the odds of Caserio working here extremely remote that leaves me with Riddick. He's one of my favorite talent evaluators and he just seems like an incredibly intelligent, hardworking guy. 

As far as headcoaching candidates I've got two. Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels. Yes McDaniels had his failures before but he was simply thrust into the job way to early. Ideally it would be Patricia though even with the pats defensive struggles this year I think the knowledge he's gained from Belichick is invaluable. 

The only thing I disagree with you on Thai is Doctson. I still think his best days are yet to come. 

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3 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

To start off we need a new GM. Give me Nick Caserio or Louis Riddick. With the odds of Caserio working here extremely remote that leaves me with Riddick. He's one of my favorite talent evaluators and he just seems like an incredibly intelligent, hardworking guy. 

As far as headcoaching candidates I've got two. Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels. Yes McDaniels had his failures before but he was simply thrust into the job way to early. Ideally it would be Patricia though even with the pats defensive struggles this year I think the knowledge he's gained from Belichick is invaluable. 

The only thing I disagree with you on Thai is Doctson. I still think his best days are yet to come. 

If the Redskins hired Josh McDaniels I would kill myself. 

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Just now, MKnight82 said:

If the Redskins hired Josh McDaniels I would kill myself. 

I think he'd be a different coach now. We wouldn't be getting the same guy that took over Denver and for inexplicable reason and full control of the roster. Like I said though, my first option is Patricia. I think he's going to be an outstanding headcoach. 

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32 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

Ok - @Doc Draper wrote an excellent post with which I agree 100%.

He didn't want to get into the nitty gritty (leaving it to professionals).  = 

And since the drugs (prescription) have me a bit loopy, allow me to delve into that nitty gritty a bit with an implausible scenario (admittedly I'm not looking at contracts so bear with me). 

This is a thought experiment on possible ways to improve the team. 

And yes, it DOES involve a bit of blowing the team up in spots.

Front Office

Bruce = Fired. Run out on a rail...etc... along with any of his suck ups

Coaches

Jay = Bye Bye. Poor situational awareness. Poor discipline from his teams. Teams are never prepared to play.

Manusky = I generally like the guy but a new coach may want his own DC. Either way, I want a guy who will change us back to the 4-3.

 

Players

So let's go through defense first:

CBs 

Norman, Breeland, Moreau, Dunny, Fuller, Holsey => KEEP (one of our strengths on defense)

S

DJ, Nicholson, Everett, McClure = KEEP (I can work with this guys and they don't cost much)

OLB

Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson, Carter = KEEP (the first 2 are no brainers - the others are for upside)

Gallette = Bye Bye. Let him walk. 

MLB

Foster, JHC, Spaight = KEEP

Brown = SIGN (but not for too much given his inability to cover a table)

Compton = Bye Bye. (I generally like hard working guys who are cerebral. But his physical limitations kill me)

DL

JAllen, Ioaniddis, Hood, Murphy, Lanier, Francis = KEEP (the first two are no brainers. Hood is a solid guy and the last three have upside)

McClain, McGee = Bye ByeThese guys stink on ice. I know we just signed them, but we need to move them. Like yesterday. So either trade them or cut them.

 

Now here's where I tick off some of the Redskins faithful = the offense.

OL

NSekhe, Long, Moses, Scherff, Roullier, Catalina = KEEP (the first 4 because they can play - the latter 2 because they have upside).

Lavauo = Bye Bye  (are you kidding me???)

Trent Williams = TRADE/KEEP @lavar703 had a good idea that I'm still toying with. I'm vacillating between the two. On one hand I want to keep him to protect the QBs blindspot. On the other hand, he is aging and is probably worth a 1st to some LT-needy team. Lavar brought up the Pats. That might be a good spot to trade him for a 2019 - 1st.

WR

Crowder = KEEP 

Doctson = TRADE (he's a bust but someone else might overpay for him)

Grant = Bye Bye

Pryor = TRADE (or let him walk in the offseason)

Quick = ???? (Is he on the team??)

TE

Davis, Sprinkle = KEEP

Paul = Bye Bye

Reed = TRADE (he's never healthy and availability beats ability in this league. Yes, he's a beast. But he's enough of one to get serious trade offers).

RB

CT, *Brown = KEEP (*bring back Brown)

Perine = HOLD  (Watch him for one more year. If he doesn't improve in camp, cut him)

Kelley = Bye Bye

 

Which brings me to... 

QB

Colt = KEEP (he's a decent backup who can win you a game here or there)

Kirk = He's gonna walk (this organization has pooped the bed in terms of how they have handled the contract negotiations. This relationship is irreparably damaged and he's going to walk. And if he doesn't walk, he continues to play on the tag - which is not a good long-term strategy. At least this way, along with other players, he can help us by signing a big contract elsewhere and getting us a 3rd round comp pick. Your argument is that he would get us a 2nd at least or maybe a 1st? Yeah? On what planet? I think he's worth it. But other teams are going to be negotiating from a position of strength. Because in order for us to trade him we have to sign him to the tag and it will cost us $30+M. So other teams will know we need to get rid of the contract. And will underbid or simply wait yet another year - or draft their own QB).

 

----

So assuming we get a 1st and 2nd for Trent and Reed and maybe a 4th for Doctson, we have enough to move around in the 1st in 2018. Or it allows us to move back and build up 1st rounders in 2019 and get our QB then. We still would need the following (besides QB)

WR

RB

OL

TE

DL

LB 

--------

^^^ Admittedly this would never happen. I'm just brainstorming on how best we can help the team long-term by selling guys high before they drop off and we get nothing from them. 

 

is your goal to make us the Cleveland browns?

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56 minutes ago, mar29020 said:

is your goal to make us the Cleveland browns?

Nope. But limping along the mediocrity of 6-10 to 9-7 seasons the rest of my life holds no value to me. In this experiment, I looked to keep solid players who can perform while letting go guys who dont and trading guys who we can get a lot of value for before we lose that value.

Kinda what the Pats just did with Garoppolo in trading him for a 2nd.

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I'm going to assume this is fantasy land and Bruce Allen can actually be fired. There's still a major problem, and that is that Synder still owns the team. Whoever he brings in will be worse. Just like Allen was worse than Cerrato.

 

Coaches

Sure, fine, get rid of the coaching staff. I don't think much of it is really their fault. But whatever. And fine with the 4-3. I don't think it really matters at the end of the day.

Defensive Backs

Trade Breeland. He's gone when he's a free agent. I don't feel like signing Fred Smoot without the Sex Boat party stuff.

You're stuck with Norman for a while. The rest of the group has actually played pretty well and I like some of the upside. If Cravens wants to come back, let him. But if you're going to convert to a 4-3, then Cravens needs to be playing linebacker.

Linebackers

The problem with converting to a 4-3 is you don't have any true OLBs. Smith, Kerrigan, Anderson .... they're all edge rushers. Maybe Kerrigan can covert, but judging by his play, I don't think you want him reading a play. Smith would be lost as a true linebacker. In a 4-3, ideally, you tell Cravens to put on 10lbs and play weakside linebacker. You can try Kerrigan at strong side, but ultimately, you're going to have to draft someone to play here.

I would like to keep Brown, but I have a feeling he will be pricey. Are we willing to invest that kind of money, knowing we're going to be bad for a couple of seasons? Foster and Spaight are useful role players, but neither is an adequate backup for Brown in a 4-3. You'd need to find someone.

Defensive Line

Allen and Ioannidis are great, but I wonder how much moving to a 4-3 would mess them up. Allen in particular is a little small to be playing interior line in a 4-3. You may end up moving him to end quite a bit. Which isn't a bad thing, per say, it's just something you have to plan for.

Offensive Line

You can't trade Williams. At least, no one is going to give up a first rounder for an expensive 30 year old LT coming off knee surgery who is on the league's substance abuse list. If you're lucky, you get a late second rounder. So, honestly, why bother trading him at that point?

Get a real Center. I am amazed at this point that no one understands the value of the Center position. I'd even argue that a great Center is worth more than a great LT. They're responsible for all the protection calls and, oh yea, they get the ball to your quarterback.

I think Moses is somewhat overpaid, but it's really no that big a deal. Scherff is fine. Outside of Center, I'd look at getting a young, raw, athletically gifted LT and give them a season or two with Trent. Then move Williams inside to Guard.

 

Receivers/Tight Ends

Good bye to everyone not named Crowder, Doctson, or Davis. Reed is never healthy and, honestly, I don't notice a difference when Davis replaces him. I realize Davis is a freak, but finding a big, slow wide receiver to convert shouldn't be hard. Allen Lazard will be a 4th or later rounder. Just draft him.

Pryor isn't a bust, but he needs multiple years to develop. And I'm not willing to pay what it will take to keep him.

I like Doctson when he's on the field. He's a solid number 2 receiver. Crowder is a solid slot guy. The team still needs a number 1. Or a speedster. Or both.

 

Running Back

Keep em all for all I care. You still need a quality RB who can run the ball 20 times a game. That doesn't exist on this team. You also need an offensive line that can consistently open holes.

Quarterback

Cousins is gone. Trade him now while you still can. You have some leverage in that you will get a 3rd rounder for him. Someone will go all in and give up a second rounder for him.

McCoy has no value after the season if you get rid of Gruden.

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8 hours ago, lavar703 said:

Duane Brown just fetched a second round pick. He's nowhere near as good as Williams and he has knee and quadricep injuries in his history. I think we could get more than what the Texans got. 

Has this year and next year left, and is only 14 million against the cap. Trent is 42 million against the cap the next three years. Huge difference.

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