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A Thought Experiment On Changes To Make


Thaiphoon

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On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

Ok - @Doc Draper wrote an excellent post with which I agree 100%.

He didn't want to get into the nitty gritty (leaving it to professionals).  = 

And since the drugs (prescription) have me a bit loopy, allow me to delve into that nitty gritty a bit with an implausible scenario (admittedly I'm not looking at contracts so bear with me). 

This is a thought experiment on possible ways to improve the team. 

And yes, it DOES involve a bit of blowing the team up in spots.

Front Office

Bruce = Fired. Run out on a rail...etc... along with any of his suck ups

Coaches

Jay = Bye Bye. Poor situational awareness. Poor discipline from his teams. Teams are never prepared to play.

Manusky = I generally like the guy but a new coach may want his own DC. Either way, I want a guy who will change us back to the 4-3.

 

Players

So let's go through defense first:

CBs 

Norman, Breeland, Moreau, Dunny, Fuller, Holsey => KEEP (one of our strengths on defense)

S

DJ, Nicholson, Everett, McClure = KEEP (I can work with this guys and they don't cost much)

OLB

Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson, Carter = KEEP (the first 2 are no brainers - the others are for upside)

Gallette = Bye Bye. Let him walk. 

MLB

Foster, JHC, Spaight = KEEP

Brown = SIGN (but not for too much given his inability to cover a table)

Compton = Bye Bye. (I generally like hard working guys who are cerebral. But his physical limitations kill me)

DL

JAllen, Ioaniddis, Hood, Murphy, Lanier, Francis = KEEP (the first two are no brainers. Hood is a solid guy and the last three have upside)

McClain, McGee = Bye ByeThese guys stink on ice. I know we just signed them, but we need to move them. Like yesterday. So either trade them or cut them.

 

Now here's where I tick off some of the Redskins faithful = the offense.

OL

NSekhe, Long, Moses, Scherff, Roullier, Catalina = KEEP (the first 4 because they can play - the latter 2 because they have upside).

Lavauo = Bye Bye  (are you kidding me???)

Trent Williams = TRADE/KEEP @lavar703 had a good idea that I'm still toying with. I'm vacillating between the two. On one hand I want to keep him to protect the QBs blindspot. On the other hand, he is aging and is probably worth a 1st to some LT-needy team. Lavar brought up the Pats. That might be a good spot to trade him for a 2019 - 1st.

WR

Crowder = KEEP 

Doctson = TRADE (he's a bust but someone else might overpay for him)

Grant = Bye Bye

Pryor = TRADE (or let him walk in the offseason)

Quick = ???? (Is he on the team??)

TE

Davis, Sprinkle = KEEP

Paul = Bye Bye

Reed = TRADE (he's never healthy and availability beats ability in this league. Yes, he's a beast. But he's enough of one to get serious trade offers).

RB

CT, *Brown = KEEP (*bring back Brown)

Perine = HOLD  (Watch him for one more year. If he doesn't improve in camp, cut him)

Kelley = Bye Bye

 

Which brings me to... 

QB

Colt = KEEP (he's a decent backup who can win you a game here or there)

Kirk = He's gonna walk (this organization has pooped the bed in terms of how they have handled the contract negotiations. This relationship is irreparably damaged and he's going to walk. And if he doesn't walk, he continues to play on the tag - which is not a good long-term strategy. At least this way, along with other players, he can help us by signing a big contract elsewhere and getting us a 3rd round comp pick. Your argument is that he would get us a 2nd at least or maybe a 1st? Yeah? On what planet? I think he's worth it. But other teams are going to be negotiating from a position of strength. Because in order for us to trade him we have to sign him to the tag and it will cost us $30+M. So other teams will know we need to get rid of the contract. And will underbid or simply wait yet another year - or draft their own QB).

 

----

So assuming we get a 1st and 2nd for Trent and Reed and maybe a 4th for Doctson, we have enough to move around in the 1st in 2018. Or it allows us to move back and build up 1st rounders in 2019 and get our QB then. We still would need the following (besides QB)

WR

RB

OL

TE

DL

LB 

--------

^^^ Admittedly this would never happen. I'm just brainstorming on how best we can help the team long-term by selling guys high before they drop off and we get nothing from them. 

 

I love this Thai! Well done. For those on the fence on the Trent and Reed recommendations, consider this:

Trent is a very good player, but he is getting older and his injuries will only get worse. Its like a stock- sell it while it is high rather than the Danskins front office usually does- trash a guy to badly driving his value down to less than zero and then try to trade him. Trade him now for a 2 if we can. 

Reed- he is such a gifted pass threat as a player! But is always injured and misses way too many games. I think @Woz used the Jaguar metaphor. Its right and I will use another one MG Midget in the 60's. I had one of these. Its a beauty, sleek, fast, a little on the smaller size but made up for that with unique performance. When I think of Reed I think the same things: a beauty, sleek, fast, a little on the smaller size but made up for that with  unique performance. But Reed like my MG was always broken down. When you own one you quickly come to the conclusion it is better to have a car that's has 80% of the chick magnet and performance capabilities than to have a broken down beauty car in the garage. The great news is -somebody is always willing to take it off your hands and pay more than it is worth. If we could get a 3 for Reed I would have done it long ago.  

The market for Cousins got a lot more interesting, but I have to agree, he is gone. He doesn't want to be here and somebody will overpay him.  

980 today had a segment- "Why is our Stadium full of the other teams fans?" I was laughing so hard because the answer is just so easy. Its not the traffic, the crappy location of the stadium, the overpriced seats and poor game experience- its because even us diehard fans eventually realize Danny has been selling us fools gold for 20+ years and we instead end up with "horse apples" a little Red and Shawshank reference here. The problem can be solved:

Hire Thai as consultant and do everything he says above. and then build a smaller domed stadium (max 65K) that is so close to the field that you can see a guys teeth get knocked out with some Zach Brown hits. Danny can learn from "Gladiator" Fans are the Mob, give us victory and we will love him. 

 

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I just can't get behind the trashing of Jay Gruden. He has been a good sport with all the craziness he's dealt with when it comes to the RG3 situation, the Kirk situation, the roster turnover, the front office debacles, etc. He isn't the best coach and he has his flaws, but the team has been in almost every game we've played, which is saying something for an organization with our recent history. The team plays hard and with passion/pride and outside of the devastating injuries this year, we've been able to move the ball with the best of em. I think continuity is very important in this league, so its hard to see a better situation where a new guy comes in.

Nevertheless, nothing matters if you don't trust that the guys making decisions are competent. 

 

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1 hour ago, A TRAIN 89 said:

I just can't get behind the trashing of Jay Gruden. He has been a good sport with all the craziness he's dealt with when it comes to the RG3 situation, the Kirk situation, the roster turnover, the front office debacles, etc. He isn't the best coach and he has his flaws, but the team has been in almost every game we've played, which is saying something for an organization with our recent history. The team plays hard and with passion/pride and outside of the devastating injuries this year, we've been able to move the ball with the best of em. I think continuity is very important in this league, so its hard to see a better situation where a new guy comes in.

Nevertheless, nothing matters if you don't trust that the guys making decisions are competent. 

 

Doc's Life Wisdom Rule number 2

4b225f2340877ef9a36a8b89ce3a6beb--dont-s

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On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

Front Office

Bruce = Fired. Run out on a rail...etc... along with any of his suck ups

Coaches

Jay = Bye Bye. Poor situational awareness. Poor discipline from his teams. Teams are never prepared to play.

Manusky = I generally like the guy but a new coach may want his own DC. Either way, I want a guy who will change us back to the 4-3.

You know me. I'm totally on board with this. The front office probably needs more of a purge.

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

CBs 

Norman, Breeland, Moreau, Dunny, Fuller, Holsey => KEEP (one of our strengths on defense)

You would try to re-sign Breeland? Is this a "must have" or a "if the price is right" kind of deal? What's your draw line on that one?

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

S

DJ, Nicholson, Everett, McClure = KEEP (I can work with this guys and they don't cost much)

I assume Hall is an oversight but a "bye bye?" McClure is replaceable (and probably should be (he's also now on IR)). Can we just replace him with Fish Smithson? :D

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

OLB

Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson, Carter = KEEP (the first 2 are no brainers - the others are for upside)

Gallette = Bye Bye. Let him walk. 

Like Hall, what do you do with Murphy? Let him walk? Priority free agent? Only if the deal is favorable to us?

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

MLB

Foster, JHC, Spaight = KEEP

Brown = SIGN (but not for too much given his inability to cover a table)

Compton = Bye Bye. (I generally like hard working guys who are cerebral. But his physical limitations kill me)

Works for me.

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

DL

JAllen, Ioaniddis, Hood, Murphy, Lanier, Francis = KEEP (the first two are no brainers. Hood is a solid guy and the last three have upside)

McClain, McGee = Bye ByeThese guys stink on ice. I know we just signed them, but we need to move them. Like yesterday. So either trade them or cut them.

Oh ... you list Murphy as a DL. Is that because you're thinking of moving to a 4-3 and thus putting him in at end? Still the question of what his price tag would be?

And I am not sure how much upside Francis has. Hood is also of questionable value in my mind. But dumping McClain and McGee would my day.

Do you try to keep Phil Taylor?

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

OL

NSekhe, Long, Moses, Scherff, Roullier, Catalina = KEEP (the first 4 because they can play - the latter 2 because they have upside).

Lavauo = Bye Bye  (are you kidding me???)

Trent Williams = TRADE/KEEP @lavar703 had a good idea that I'm still toying with. I'm vacillating between the two. On one hand I want to keep him to protect the QBs blindspot. On the other hand, he is aging and is probably worth a 1st to some LT-needy team. Lavar brought up the Pats. That might be a good spot to trade him for a 2019 - 1st.

I can understand the "trade Trent" idea. However, that's a draft day only move. You have to make sure you have someone to replace him with immediately. No, I don't think Nsekhe is that guy. He's a good swing tackle but I don't want him as my Day 1 left tackle. I also want to get more than just a 2019 1st, especially if I'm dealing with the Patriots.

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

WR

Crowder = KEEP 

Doctson = TRADE (he's a bust but someone else might overpay for him)

Grant = Bye Bye

Pryor = TRADE (or let him walk in the offseason)

Quick = ???? (Is he on the team??)

Grant, Pryor, and Quick are all free agents after this season. I think if nothing else, that forces you to hang onto Doctson since you cannot replace the entire corps in an offseason. Unless you expect to replace them all with Harris, Davis, and Shakeir Ryan (our practice squaddies)? Plus, I feel like you'd be selling low on him.

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

TE

Davis, Sprinkle = KEEP

Paul = Bye Bye

Reed = TRADE (he's never healthy and availability beats ability in this league. Yes, he's a beast. But he's enough of one to get serious trade offers).

Trading Reed I can understand. Only problem is that you might have to move him before March 2018 (his 2018 salary guarantees then; when exactly, I don't know).

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

RB

CT, *Brown = KEEP (*bring back Brown)

Perine = HOLD  (Watch him for one more year. If he doesn't improve in camp, cut him)

Kelley = Bye Bye

A bit harsh, but I can understand it.

Which brings me to your insanity ...

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

QB

Colt = KEEP (he's a decent backup who can win you a game here or there)

Kirk = He's gonna walk (this organization has pooped the bed in terms of how they have handled the contract negotiations. This relationship is irreparably damaged and he's going to walk. And if he doesn't walk, he continues to play on the tag - which is not a good long-term strategy. At least this way, along with other players, he can help us by signing a big contract elsewhere and getting us a 3rd round comp pick. Your argument is that he would get us a 2nd at least or maybe a 1st? Yeah? On what planet? I think he's worth it. But other teams are going to be negotiating from a position of strength. Because in order for us to trade him we have to sign him to the tag and it will cost us $30+M. So other teams will know we need to get rid of the contract. And will underbid or simply wait yet another year - or draft their own QB).

I get letting Kirk walk, but keeping Colt? Good lord man, why???

 

On 10/30/2017 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said:

So assuming we get a 1st and 2nd for Trent and Reed and maybe a 4th for Doctson, we have enough to move around in the 1st in 2018. Or it allows us to move back and build up 1st rounders in 2019 and get our QB then. We still would need the following (besides QB)

WR

RB

OL

TE

DL

LB 

--------

^^^ Admittedly this would never happen. I'm just brainstorming on how best we can help the team long-term by selling guys high before they drop off and we get nothing from them. 

Surprisingly, the QB market might actually be viable this offseason. Beyond Cousins, the following people may be available: Drew Brees (he ain't coming here), Sam Bradford (MASSIVE injury risk), Josh McCown (would MUCH rather have him than McCoy as a bridge QB), Alex Smith (KC has to cut him, but he'll count $20M against their cap and they have Mahomes waiting and cutting him saves $18M in cap space), Case Keenum (how much of his play in Minnesota is a smoke screen?), Teddy Bridgewater (will he be available or will his contract toll?), and Jimmy Garoppolo (no guarantees he'll stay in San Francisco).

Assuming you get someone more viable than McCoy, then your draft needs hold up. However, I'd re-order them as:

  1. OT (you traded Trent)
  2. WR
  3. OG
  4. DE
  5. RB
  6. LB
  7. WR (yes, a second receiver)
  8. TE
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On 10/30/2017 at 8:58 PM, lavar703 said:

To start off we need a new GM. Give me Nick Caserio or Louis Riddick. With the odds of Caserio working here extremely remote that leaves me with Riddick. He's one of my favorite talent evaluators and he just seems like an incredibly intelligent, hardworking guy. 

As far as headcoaching candidates I've got two. Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels. Yes McDaniels had his failures before but he was simply thrust into the job way to early. Ideally it would be Patricia though even with the pats defensive struggles this year I think the knowledge he's gained from Belichick is invaluable. 

I like the GM suggestions but BLECCH to the coaching options.

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4 hours ago, Woz said:

You know me. I'm totally on board with this. The front office probably needs more of a purge.

You would try to re-sign Breeland? Is this a "must have" or a "if the price is right" kind of deal? What's your draw line on that one?

I assume Hall is an oversight but a "bye bye?" McClure is replaceable (and probably should be (he's also now on IR)). Can we just replace him with Fish Smithson? :D

Like Hall, what do you do with Murphy? Let him walk? Priority free agent? Only if the deal is favorable to us?

Works for me.

Oh ... you list Murphy as a DL. Is that because you're thinking of moving to a 4-3 and thus putting him in at end? Still the question of what his price tag would be?

And I am not sure how much upside Francis has. Hood is also of questionable value in my mind. But dumping McClain and McGee would my day.

Do you try to keep Phil Taylor?

I can understand the "trade Trent" idea. However, that's a draft day only move. You have to make sure you have someone to replace him with immediately. No, I don't think Nsekhe is that guy. He's a good swing tackle but I don't want him as my Day 1 left tackle. I also want to get more than just a 2019 1st, especially if I'm dealing with the Patriots.

Grant, Pryor, and Quick are all free agents after this season. I think if nothing else, that forces you to hang onto Doctson since you cannot replace the entire corps in an offseason. Unless you expect to replace them all with Harris, Davis, and Shakeir Ryan (our practice squaddies)? Plus, I feel like you'd be selling low on him.

Trading Reed I can understand. Only problem is that you might have to move him before March 2018 (his 2018 salary guarantees then; when exactly, I don't know).

A bit harsh, but I can understand it.

Which brings me to your insanity ...

I get letting Kirk walk, but keeping Colt? Good lord man, why???

 

Surprisingly, the QB market might actually be viable this offseason. Beyond Cousins, the following people may be available: Drew Brees (he ain't coming here), Sam Bradford (MASSIVE injury risk), Josh McCown (would MUCH rather have him than McCoy as a bridge QB), Alex Smith (KC has to cut him, but he'll count $20M against their cap and they have Mahomes waiting and cutting him saves $18M in cap space), Case Keenum (how much of his play in Minnesota is a smoke screen?), Teddy Bridgewater (will he be available or will his contract toll?), and Jimmy Garoppolo (no guarantees he'll stay in San Francisco).

Assuming you get someone more viable than McCoy, then your draft needs hold up. However, I'd re-order them as:

  1. OT (you traded Trent)
  2. WR
  3. OG
  4. DE
  5. RB
  6. LB
  7. WR (yes, a second receiver)
  8. TE

Yes, thank you for fleshing out the needs in the draft at the bottom. I didn't put as much effort into that part as I'd have liked. But only just now got my energy back (well, got it back last night so I could go trick or treating with my daughter). I think I'd swap DE and RB there though. I do like the list though (including the 2nd WR)

To answer your questions:

A) Yes, try to sign Bree to a decent deal. However, if he wants too much money, let him walk. Start the 2019 comp pick engine.

B) Hall was an oversight. But only a small one. Honestly, I forgot he was even on the roster.

C) Murphy would need to go to DE. And he;d have to re-sign for a team friendly deal or bye bye.

D) Yes, try to retain Phil Taylor (oversight).

E) I'm okay with trying to get more than that from the Pats for Trent. But I doubt they bite considering he's 30 years old and has had numerous injuries and is i the substance abuse program where IIRC he is gone for a season if he gets popped again.

F) Yes, I dislike Colt a lot as a starting QB. I do think he has the ability to come into a game and win (or be competitive) if your starter goes down. I would NOT roll with him as a starter unless I was tanking for a year and looking to get the #1 in the following draft.

 

As for bridge QBs, I like Bradford or McCown. The reason for both is simple. They are both good enough to win games, help us develop other players on the offense and not too good that we lay awake at night wondering "when is the right time to get rid of them".

If we go Bridgewater, or Smith - I fear our F.O. will fall too much in love with them and we remain mediocre for longer than we need to. I generally liked Bridgewater before the injury. I have no faith in him right now post-injury.

Keenum is meh for me. But of the QBs not named Bradford or McCown, he's my 3rd choice.

And Garoppolo is gonna get paid in San Fran.

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21 hours ago, lavar703 said:

Sorry Woz. Lol

Big Matt Patricia fan. McDaniels I could take it or leave it but I do think he ends up being a really good coach. 

Okay, I'll bite: explain why Patricia would be a good choice.

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17 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

E) I'm okay with trying to get more than that from the Pats for Trent. But I doubt they bite considering he's 30 years old and has had numerous injuries and is i the substance abuse program where IIRC he is gone for a season if he gets popped again.

Even with all that, he's a five time Pro Bowler and two time All Pro. Maybe their 2018 1st and 2019 2nd (you had originally said a 2019 1st)?

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