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Kirk Cousins is, by every traditional measure, an excellent QB. So why doesn't he win more?


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35 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

They had a third and one today and ran a FB toss. I'm gonna blow your mind, but it didn't work.

Certainly not groundbreaking. Or an excuse for his entire career. But stupid little things like that add up.

CJ Ham is really good. Used to be a RB in college. Don’t love the call but Ham has been pretty good when given the chance. Hes not your standard FB.

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On 11/19/2021 at 12:34 PM, Bullet Club said:

Well one guy played for the Lions. The other came to a 13-3 team and proceeded to miss the playoffs.

 

On 11/19/2021 at 11:27 PM, Nozizaki said:

This is the wrong way to look at it. If Kirk was on the 2017 Vikings they probably would've won the SB. But in 2018 the Vikings were only in most of their games because of Kirk. Defense got banged up and regressed hard. Kicking game was a nightmare. Cook, Theilen, and Diggs all turned the ball over. A lot.

I want to further expound upon this point, as I didn't really have time to fully respond before. This video covers my second point on the rest of the team letting Kirk down in 2018 better than I ever could.

PFF really hit on this with Matt Stafford and the Rams, but it is applicable to Kirk and the Vikings as well. It is a common misconception when QBs are traded/join a team through FA that they are "the missing piece to get them over the hump". This would be true if the teams played at the same level. In 2017 the Vikings had the #1 scoring defense in the league and only allowed 15.8 PPG. The offense was 10th, scoring 23.9 PPG for reference. Then in 2018 the defense regressed towards the mean and, while still good, allowed 21.3 PPG good for the 9th best scoring defense in the league. That means for the Vikings to maintain similar success to 2017, Kirk would've had to be worth approximately 5.5 PPG just to make up for the defensive regression. Vegas handicaps the best QBs in the league at about 7.0 PPG. To be fair, Kirk actually did not significantly improve the offense and in 2018 the Vikings average 22.5 PPG (19th in the league). However, this is in spite of an improvement from the QB position going from 3929 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 25 TDs, 8 INTs and 2 fumbles lost in 2017 to 4298 yards (7.1 yards/attempt), 30 TDs, 10 INTs, and 7 fumbles lost in 2018. The Vikings got career years from several players such as Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr, Case Keenum, Jerrick McKinnon, and Kai Forbath. Unfortunately, adding Kirk Cousins barely managed keep the Vikings from being a train wreck in 2018 when the pendulum swung the other way and they got average to below average performances from those players or their replacements.

This is the same reason that despite adding Matthew Stafford, the Rams have the same record as they did in week 11 last year. Their scoring has improved tremendously from 23.3 PPG (22nd) to 27.1 PPG (7th). But this is only accounting for their defensive regression from 18.5 PPG (1st) to 22.7 PPG (15th). Honestly, based on expected W/L the Rams were a better team last year.

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On 11/18/2021 at 10:41 AM, Apparition said:

He has a 98.4 career passer rating, which ranks him ahead of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and just behind Drew Brees.
His 6.97 career ANY/A is 10th all-time, just behind Russell Wilson, and ahead of Steve Young and Joe Montana.
His TD/INT ratio is better than 2:1.
His sack rate lags somewhat behind the all-time great pocket QBs, but is still significantly better than the likes of Rodgers and Wilson.

But despite all this, he's 1 game below .500 for his career, and just 1-2 as a playoff starter.

Is this all just a function of him being mostly on mediocre teams with mediocre coaching, or is there a problem with Cousins himself? Even comparable players in comparable situations like Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan are significantly above .500 for their careers.

Football is a team game. It's that simple.

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1 hour ago, Nozizaki said:

 

I want to further expound upon this point, as I didn't really have time to fully respond before. This video covers my second point on the rest of the team letting Kirk down in 2018 better than I ever could.

PFF really hit on this with Matt Stafford and the Rams, but it is applicable to Kirk and the Vikings as well. It is a common misconception when QBs are traded/join a team through FA that they are "the missing piece to get them over the hump". This would be true if the teams played at the same level. In 2017 the Vikings had the #1 scoring defense in the league and only allowed 15.8 PPG. The offense was 10th, scoring 23.9 PPG for reference. Then in 2018 the defense regressed towards the mean and, while still good, allowed 21.3 PPG good for the 9th best scoring defense in the league. That means for the Vikings to maintain similar success to 2017, Kirk would've had to be worth approximately 5.5 PPG just to make up for the defensive regression. Vegas handicaps the best QBs in the league at about 7.0 PPG. To be fair, Kirk actually did not significantly improve the offense and in 2018 the Vikings average 22.5 PPG (19th in the league). However, this is in spite of an improvement from the QB position going from 3929 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 25 TDs, 8 INTs and 2 fumbles lost in 2017 to 4298 yards (7.1 yards/attempt), 30 TDs, 10 INTs, and 7 fumbles lost in 2018. The Vikings got career years from several players such as Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr, Case Keenum, Jerrick McKinnon, and Kai Forbath. Unfortunately, adding Kirk Cousins barely managed keep the Vikings from being a train wreck in 2018 when the pendulum swung the other way and they got average to below average performances from those players or their replacements.

This is the same reason that despite adding Matthew Stafford, the Rams have the same record as they did in week 11 last year. Their scoring has improved tremendously from 23.3 PPG (22nd) to 27.1 PPG (7th). But this is only accounting for their defensive regression from 18.5 PPG (1st) to 22.7 PPG (15th). Honestly, based on expected W/L the Rams were a better team last year.

The other part about 2017 vs 2018 is MIN had a 3rd place schedule and by luck of that draw drew the easiest QB schedule.   Going up to a 1st place schedule automatically made the competition harder for the D and for Cousins.    It also explained a lot of the mirage that was Case Keenum 2017.   I took that stance when DEN signed him but a lot of the fanbase chose to see it with rose colored glasses.  Needless to say that didn’t work out at all. 

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4 minutes ago, Apparition said:

  

 

They strongly correlate with QB performance, sure. But if both QBs perform that day, then the rest of the team is what wins or loses. (I say as a fan of the Falcons and have seen the Falcons lose a LOT of games where Matt Ryan had a GREAT game but the rest of the team, specifically defensively, was utter trash.) There are a lot of times where Cousins plays a great game with 1 mistake throw and boom, they lose. That shouldn't happen.

Edited by scar988
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Vikings OLine has been bottom7 in pass blocking (per PFF) in every season Cousins has been here..even against Packers on Sunday, he was under ton of pressure on dropbacks. Not that Cousins is faultless but Spielman has done a really poor job when it comes to assembling atleast an average OLine despite spending decent amount of draft capital in last few years

 

 

Edited by SotanKing
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It comes down to the simple question, do you trust Cousins? I dont. When there is pressure in a big prime time game he chokes. The classic Cousins game was in 2018 on TNF against the Rams. He played great for 3 and a half quarters. People remember that game for Goff having his best game of his career. He was dropping dimes to Kupp, Cooks, Gurley but Cousins was having a sensational game himself. He was going toe to toe with Goff in that game UNTIL when the money was truly on the line and he needed to lead the Vikings down to the field to score and tie the game and guess what happened? HE FUMBLED and lost. The Vikings shouldve lost this past Sunday if the Packers defender wouldve held on to interception that wouldve more than likely ended the game. 

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

The other part about 2017 vs 2018 is MIN had a 3rd place schedule and by luck of that draw drew the easiest QB schedule.   Going up to a 1st place schedule automatically made the competition harder for the D and for Cousins.    It also explained a lot of the mirage that was Case Keenum 2017.   I took that stance when DEN signed him but a lot of the fanbase chose to see it with rose colored glasses.  Needless to say that didn’t work out at all. 

That's a fair point, too. Since about 40% of the playoff field changes every year the scheduling is very random and can often times lead to the 1st place team playing an easier schedule than the 4th place team. As such I chalk it more up to career years, coaching changes, and many players/unit regressing towards their respective means.

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On 11/18/2021 at 4:57 PM, Hunter2_1 said:

Completely un-clutch. Great during the 90% of the time where he doesn't need to be.

 

That's my guess, anyway

So there you go. In crunch time against a direct playoff threat, Cousins doesn’t operate like he normally does

He lines up behind a freaking freaking guard.

dude is the antithesis of a clutch QB

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