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The Playoff Race


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On 12/27/2021 at 5:53 PM, wcblack34 said:

This is the season where we sweep Green Bay and then lose to the Bears to knock ourselves out of the playoffs. I can feel it…

We could win BOTH games and still have an almost even chance to miss the playoffs.  Philadelphia could easily win both their games.  Losing to The Lions could have been the killer that put us out.

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On 12/29/2021 at 7:29 PM, Robb_K said:

We could win BOTH games and still have an almost even chance to miss the playoffs.  Philadelphia could easily win both their games.  Losing to The Lions could have been the killer that put us out.

And the Cowboys, and the Ravens, and the Cardinals, and the Bengals lol

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7 minutes ago, ArcticNorseman said:

What a game between KC and Cincy!

I’m at a sports bar and was sitting by the most obnoxious Chiefs fans. They were getting so angry. I couldn’t care less who won or lost, but these guys were terrible. It was fun listening to them whine the entire second half. 

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55 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

I’m at a sports bar and was sitting by the most obnoxious Chiefs fans. They were getting so angry. I couldn’t care less who won or lost, but these guys were terrible. It was fun listening to them whine the entire second half. 

That's a whole personality trait of KC fans.

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2 hours ago, Nozizaki said:

With the Vikings loss I believe the only playoff spot up for grabs in the NFC is whether the 49ers/Saints get the 6/7 seed

Yes.  The 49ers are win and in (and get the #6 seed).  If they lose and the Saints win, the Saints are in as #7 (and the Eagles get #6).  

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1 hour ago, dc_vikingfan said:

Can't win games being this bad!

I didn't seek the source of the above stats by Dustin Baker.

This...   https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/   .... implies MN is 21st in OVERALL conversions into 1st downs (i.e. 1st down conversion on any down) as of today for the 2021 season, at 33.3%.  WFT and Seattle are also at 33.3%.  I put MN at 21, not tied for 19 because the stat is rounded to 3 decimal places and there may be slight differences between the 3 teams at 33.3%; e.g. WFT is .3327 = 177/532.

When I read the quoted post, I sought the 2021 NFL stats because of the high volatility of those rankings over the 8 years.  That high volatility may imply a fairly tight distribution of the stat for the 32 teams. Absent readily available 3RD down conversions, I opted to review the OVERALL (all downs) conversion rate....

In 2021, as of 16 games played, the RANGE of the OVERALL 1st down conversion stat is about 10%, from Green Bay at 39.4% to Jax at 29.2%.  Dropping 32 teams into a 10% range means 1/3% gaps between teams - assuming a uniform distribution, or tighter gaps assuming a normal distribution of teams 1st down conversion %s. 

I suggest Baker consider overall 1st down conversions as a more meaningful stat for offensive effectiveness in driving for points.  The history of that stat is beyond my interest.  The history of the 3rd down conversion stat is likely volatile and less reliable for measuring an offenses' scoring effectiveness.

 

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