Sutton Extended (4-yr, $60.8m, $35m GTD)

[broncosfan_101]

Where I thought the Patrick deal was fair, it also doesn’t represent much in terms of upside. He’s a player, but I find it difficult to imagine a scenario where we’re crowing about what an incredible value we’ve got in him. He’s a good 2/3, and he’s paid as such. 
 

But this? This could be a big one. He’s a true alpha when healthy, and yet going into next season, he probably won’t be a top 20 paid receiver. If he continues to play like he has this season, at what we presume is 75-90% of his full form, it’s a fair contract. But he should only get healthier, and if that’s the case, this is a game-changer of a contract in terms of roster building on offence. 

[bMiller031]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It's not a crowning, my statement is actually a reflection of usage which already clearly goes to Jeudy.

Sutton's really good at what he when he's at peak performance - a big body, classic X receiver.   But he's also a pure boundary guy.    With a great QB, that could translate to 10+ TD seasons.   With the QB's we have, not so much.    But in the modern O's we see, that X receiver who wins on the boundary alone is also going to be always be a lower volume guy behind the more versatile, do-it-all guy.    If we didn't have a Tim Patrick, it wouldn't have been even a Q to prioritize him, but we've been lucky enough to have 2 guys who fit that specific role really nicely.

The numbers don't lie - Patrick and he share the same role, and Sutton's usage drops dramatically when Jeudy's active.    Jeudy brings something very different and wins in very different ways, which also gets used more in today's NFL.   It's not hard to see this coming, we're seeing it already.   This isn't about crowning a guy - it's reflecting what DEN's O is already doing.

That's fine from a schematics standpoint but from a production standpoint JJ has no claim to the #1 role and especially any early big-$ extension talks.  I think we're saying the same thing.  Sutton has been an absolute bad *** and deserves the extension but the PR team has been working overtime (and to some affect) to maintain Jeudy's status among the Jefferson/Lamb-types when he just hasn't been there.  Sutton has performed well in spite of scheme (see production as boundary receiver with Keenum, Flacco, check-down Teddy B) and, to your point, much of Jeudy's successes have come from manufactured touches and force feeding (74 catches on *141 targets*). 

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

That's fine from a schematics standpoint but from a production standpoint JJ has no claim to the #1 role and especially any early big-$ extension talks.  I think we're saying the same thing.  Sutton has been an absolute bad *** and deserves the extension but the PR team has been working overtime (and to some affect) to maintain Jeudy's status among the Jefferson/Lamb-types when he just hasn't been there.  Sutton has performed well in spite of scheme (see production as boundary receiver with Keenum, Flacco, check-down Teddy B) and, to your point, much of Jeudy's successes have come from manufactured touches and force feeding (74 catches on *141 targets*). 

From all the film, Jeudy's progressing where we'd like to see him.   Not his fault Teddy B sucks ***, combined with the timing of his injury.    In cases like these when the QB play is so bad, the film analysis is crucial.   The 2 metrics that are visible on tape together - he keeps winning, and finding separation, and the drops are no longer the main issue.   As long as the QB play is actually decent, that will translate to results shortly.    The big difference with the guys you cited - they actually had good QB play in their first years, too.       Context matters.    Still, there's no doubt that year 1 was a massive disappointment.   From the tape and the metrics, though, Jeudy's progression should leave nothing but confidence.   As for the target production to catches, Jeudy's 11 drops are his to own, but let's put the 2020 target number in context (not that we need a metrics reminder, the QB play was that bad lol - but when you add his 11 drops, not hard to see why the 2020 target numbers look so bad compared to catches):

 

 

But yeah, on the flip side, to be clear - Jeudy's not earned anything to say he deserves a big $ extension - keep in mind, that's not possible anyways until after year 3 under the CBA.    I don't think that was mentioned anywhere.   It's just a reflection that in today's NFL, we work best when we have a big X, a speed burner that keeps the D honest, and a do-it-all guy (who's going to get a lot more usage volume wise).    It's why losing Hamler & Jeudy absolutely killed our pass O completely...and why having both back, really makes us a top target for prospective QB's (add in Javonte Williams, our TE <even if Fant isn't worth a 2nd contract, 2 TE's who can make a difference isn't that commonplace>, and how young our OL is, with Munchak's work starting to show results with Calvin Anderson and Meinerz year 1).  

Back to Sutton, to be clear this year - Sutton's down numbers this year should have surprised no one.    Year 1 post-ACL you can play, but you don't have peak explosion.  That comes year 2.   Still, ppl thinking that Sutton may match the prior numbers, are likely in for disappointment (prorated for a 17th game, of course).   The volume is likely not going to surpass, or even match 2019.   That's as much of an issue as Sutton not being 100 percent back explosion-wise (it's more closer to 90 percent than 75-80, but that 10 percent matters).    

Back in Sutton's great 2019 2nd year, he was literally the only guy left once Sanders was traded (Patrick was a rookie, so nothing like he is now).   The TE and RB play was also nowhere near what we have now, let alone the improved WR talent we have now.    Doesn't mean Sutton won't be valuable, far from it.   But it's a testament to the talent we've got now in our receiving corps (RB, WR, TE) that Sutton's numbers this year are so depressed, and other than TD's (which kinda matter), the volume may never match 2019 (other than getting that extra game).   Still, it's a good problem to have.

Edited November 22, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Where I thought the Patrick deal was fair, it also doesn’t represent much in terms of upside. He’s a player, but I find it difficult to imagine a scenario where we’re crowing about what an incredible value we’ve got in him. He’s a good 2/3, and he’s paid as such. 
 

But this? This could be a big one. He’s a true alpha when healthy, and yet going into next season, he probably won’t be a top 20 paid receiver. If he continues to play like he has this season, at what we presume is 75-90% of his full form, it’s a fair contract. But he should only get healthier, and if that’s the case, this is a game-changer of a contract in terms of roster building on offence. 

It's also a deal though that offers a ton of options; if Sutton's great, we can deal Patrick to a team that needs WR midseason next year, if he's collecting a lot of dust.   If Sutton's knee never quite gets right to where there's clear separation from the 2, it has a lot of value gain from the team allocation perspective, if Sutton is a guy Paton looks to deal if he needs to reallocate $ with a big QB salary on the books (and if it's not needed, no worries).

I'll say it again - Paton deserves a TON of credit for getting these extensions done now, instead of waiting for the offseason.   I'm going to go out on a limb (not really) and say by this offseason, the extensions will look even more reasonable.   And even if Sutton is never elite, but just very good - the contract will look like insane value in 2022-3 offseason, when the 2nd jump in cap $ makes all contracts so much more inflated.   There's no coincidence why we're seeing so many extensions being done now by so many teams for guys who could be franchise-tagged, or bid up on the open market.   They know the AAV is only going up for these type of deals for young, 2nd contract guys who are seen as upper-tier FA targets.

Edited November 22, 2021 by Broncofan

[BroncoBruin]

How many second contracts were paid to homegrown guys under Elway? Paton might lap him by next season. 

[broncos67]

6 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

How many second contracts were paid to homegrown guys under Elway? Paton might lap him by next season. 

Very few. To the point where players/agents were not exactly enamored with our FO. Paton clearly has a different (correct, IMO) approach to homegrown talent that I think will actually go quite a long way towards overall team morale.

[grizmo78]

2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

How many second contracts were paid to homegrown guys under Elway? Paton might lap him by next season. 

How many of them earned a second contract is the bigger issue... most of the ones that earned one, got one from Elway (Von, Wolfe, Simmons, Bolles, Jano). There are a few who you could argue could have deserved one (Julius Thomas, Virgil Green, Malik Jackson, Trevathan, Roby, Paradis, McGovern) but there were some obvious reasons why they weren't retained (ex. chose Wolfe over Jackson, chose Marshall over Trevathan). Overall though, Elway actually did a great job of letting players go at the right time with exception of Barrett, but no one expected him to blow up as much as he has (most saw him as a solid OLB with 8-10 sack/yr potential, and he hasn't come close to approaching his one big year since then either). 

[champ11]

3 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

How many second contracts were paid to homegrown guys under Elway? Paton might lap him by next season. 

I really do appreciate this approach he has taken, both this offseason and now. Like b67 said. I think Elway was playing hardball like we were still the Peyton Broncos. 

Obviously still need the QB. And the coaching staff. But I really appreciate that good, homegrown, culture setters are getting some well deserved bags. 

[Broncofan]

15 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

How many second contracts were paid to homegrown guys under Elway? Paton might lap him by next season. 

As @grizmo78 pointed out part of the issue is so few players Elway drafted from 2013-17 deserved a 2nd contract.   But you’re right in a key diff - Elway always preferred  to let market set value if he couldn’t get an insanely team friendly deal done.    That’s ok in some situations - but in years with the cap going up a lot that’s cost the team dearly.   Now Elway deserves credit for the guys deserving it now - shows how much Elway changing his approach in the last 2-3 drafts worked. 
 

Paton locking guys up ahead of this offseason at reasonable rates is a massive 3-way winner.   The contracts are going to look even better in a year’s time value wise.    It also makes the O so attractive for the 3 vet QB who control their destinations.  And it certainly creates more goodwill in the locker room.   It’s still a business but having the players feel like there’s a commitment to rewarding their core can only help.  Nothing but props to Paton here.   Just only gets us over the hump with a QB, but that’s for the offseason.  

Edited November 23, 2021 by Broncofan

[jsthomp2007]

On 11/22/2021 at 6:59 PM, champ11 said:

I really do appreciate this approach he has taken, both this offseason and now. Like b67 said. I think Elway was playing hardball like we were still the Peyton Broncos. 

Obviously still need the QB. And the coaching staff. But I really appreciate that good, homegrown, culture setters are getting some well deserved bags. 

And you would think having three WRs locked up for the next 3-4 years would be attractive for a studly and handsome QB like Rogers or Russ