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So what’s Russell Wilson trade value right now


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Didn't he throw 40 touchdowns last year? Isn't he injured? Isn't the Seahawks roster doo doo? Aren't fans livid with Shane Waldron's playcalling? 

Maybe this is the beginning of the end, but I doubt it. He's 33 now, and they can try to trade him to start a new era, but he very well might play great down the stretch prompting a change in that rationale if one is leaning that way. Even if they don't make the playoffs. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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Still going for multiple FRPs. At least two, plus an impact player on a rookie deal.

Franchise QBs aren't easy to find. Despite this season, Wilson is absolutely a franchise QB.

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Still going for multiple FRPs. At least two, plus an impact player on a rookie deal.

Franchise QBs aren't easy to find. Despite this season, Wilson is absolutely a franchise QB.

Do you think that many other veteran QBs being available this off-season might change the price?

I would like to know the projected compensation for trades of Rodgers/Watson/Wilson

 

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Watson with the pending lawsuit won't get traded/will get a big discount (besides, both Miami's and Philly's QBs have been performing decently). I feel like both Wilson/Rodgers will get similar compensations, although if SEA/GB let them choose their destination it will diminish. They'll probably get something around 2-3 firsts.

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1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

Do you think that many other veteran QBs being available this off-season might change the price?

I would like to know the projected compensation for trades of Rodgers/Watson/Wilson

 

Specific to Wilson? Probably, but not by much. The two big names (Rodgers/Watson) both have a few things outside of football that will lower their price tag (Rodgers with his "immunized" status, Watson with his legal issues). Other than those two, other QBs who will potentially be on the move are clear tiers below these guys (Big Ben, Tua, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater). 

So of these guys on the move, Wilson represents the best combination of age, on field performance and off field controversy. He'll draw the most, and I could see the Stafford deal as the baseline for Wilson - maybe a few add ons because Wilson has a better resume, but that's really going to come down to how bad someone is willing to trade for him (and there are a few teams that are literally a QB away, so that going to push things up beyond Stafford).

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10 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

Watson with the pending lawsuit won't get traded/will get a big discount

I think he'll get traded, and the compensation will be higher than what we're expecting, but lower than what the Texans would have got had Watson not been who he is. 

By a few accounts, the legal issues are going to be resolved once the right deal is in place. It nearly happened at the deadline, according to several sources. It doesn't mean he's not going to his next location at sticker price, it just means the legal issues shouldn't be as big a barrier as initially anticipated. The risk is now relegated to how much of a suspension a team is willing to bite over the course of a 4 year extension. 6 games over 68 regular season games (not including playoffs) I mean, that's not ideal... but is it reasonable, especially for a guy who is an MVP caliber player who is in the Mahomes/Allen/Rodgers/Wilson tier of QBs?

You tell me. 

10 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

(besides, both Miami's and Philly's QBs have been performing decently)

Let's be honest here - they're managing games well. Can you win with that? Probably - actually, they are winning, so yes. Can you improve upon that? Absolutely.

In a vacuum, strictly looking at football - Watson is demonstratively better than both, by a significant margin. With Watson, nobody is really questioning what he'll do for an equipped team on the field, he's taking them to the playoffs and potentially looking at a good run one they get there.

The issue here is when do you get to put your guy on the field - and what is your fanbase going to say. Both are significant risks, but to pretend there isn't a significant reward with the potential on-field performance? That's just being very short sighted on what Watson has done on the field - which is why the rumor mill is churning on him, despite not taking a snap this entire season.

You know what you're getting if you trade for Watson. You're getting a potential Super Bowl run with the right components surrounding him.

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Yeah, I agree with what you say. Still, if he didn't come with such a big baggage you could fetch something like 5 1sts for a guy that young. The fact that he does means that there will be less teams willing to trade for him, diminishing his value. The Hurts and Tua thing won't diminish it much, but those teams won't be THAT desperate to trade for him. It's not like they are Drew Locks. Still will probably fetch somewhere around 3 1sts if he makes a deal before the draft IMO.

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When it comes to trade markets, QB's still rule the roost.    There is no chance that either A-Rod or Wilson go for less than 2 1sts, and it depends on where the 2022 1sts are located.    

If it's a top 10 pick, then 2 firsts may be all that's required.   If it's a pick in the 20's, then 3 1sts are going to be needed.

But keep in mind 2 key points:

1.  Teams can't trade for more than 3 years of draft picks.    That helps teams like PHI, NYG & NYJ, however....

2.  All 3 QB's likely to be in trade discussions get to choose their destination (Watson & Wilson had full no-trade clauses into their original deal, and A-Rod's renegotiation after his holdout apparently gave this to him in return for ending it).     So that's going to influence the discussion a fair bit.

Having said that - there's no doubt that Wilson's play has hurt his value.   It's more a question of how much.   It's not at the level where it's a massive discount - but instead of 3 1st rounders, the price may be 2 1sts and 2 2nds, for example, or 2 1sts and a young decent player.  

Watson's elite level of play and his age, isn't getting a huge discount with his legal issues - because they're likely to be settled by next offseason, one way or the other.    There's the spectre of NFL disciplinary action afterwards, but no doubt the NFL will let the teams know (just like they did this year when MIA & HOU were staring each other down at the deadline).    

Again, though - one X-factor we're not accounting for is the fact it may not be an open market.    That could lead a lower return than being tossed around in past reports (3 1sts and young players for Wilson was the talk before, just like Watson was 3 1sts and 3 2nds, or 3 1sts and 2 young good players / 2 1sts and 2 really good players and the 2021 pick was in the top 5-10 range).     Given the leverage each QB has, and the inevitability of a HOU/SEA trade by all accounts, should make for a fascinating offseason.

Edited by Broncofan
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27 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

Yeah, I agree with what you say. Still, if he didn't come with such a big baggage you could fetch something like 5 1sts for a guy that young. The fact that he does means that there will be less teams willing to trade for him, diminishing his value. The Hurts and Tua thing won't diminish it much, but those teams won't be THAT desperate to trade for him. It's not like they are Drew Locks. Still will probably fetch somewhere around 3 1sts if he makes a deal before the draft IMO.

Teams can't trade away more than 3 years of draft picks.  It's not a principle, the CBA limits it.  It's why every credible trade story always starts with 3 1sts plus extras.   Teams like PHI, NYG & NYJ have an extra 1st, of course, but if you ever wonder why the price quoted for QB's is always 3 1sts.....CBA limits.

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4 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

Giants right now hold picks 6 and 7 in this upcoming draft. I'd trade both of those plus a little extra, without question, for Russ.

The bigger Q is whether Russ will waive his no-trade clause to play for NYG.    Obviously the FO is cleaning house, and that will help, but Wilson's about going to a winner and helping his brand.    Being in NY obviously helps brand-wise, but the overhaul the Gmen need, may very well have them off his radar.     We apparently saw this with Watson & Philly this trade deadline. 

There's no doubt NYG would have a ton of draft capital to offer, as would Philly & NYJ (seems like they'd stay the course with Zach Wilson one more year, too).   But with the no-trade clauses the QB's have, it's going to change the trade landscape a fair amount.

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