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Week 13 GDT - Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers


J-ALL-DAY

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12 minutes ago, Forge said:

He's basically grading the supporting cast of every QB based on different metrics (efficiency slanted for offense / defense / special teams) (epa, pass block win rate, open receiver rate). So Josh Allen basically has the "best" supporting cast in the NFL. 

Those at the bottom are getting the least amount of help from the people around them. When you consider how well some of those guys have performed, they are are having pretty good seasons (Carr, Cousins and honestly Jimmy). 

What's interesting is if you look at these, you have to be somewhat concerned by Zach Wilson. They are basically saying JImmy G is getting less help from the rest of the team than Wilson is. 

On the surface, it probably needs to be deep dived more, but it's a fascinating piece of data 

I don't buy the open rate stat at all. It seems skewed to the actual pass attempt. Well, Jimmy is only looking at one are of the field so how does even work? Of course the windows are going to be tighter throwing those slants to Deebo since teams know that's where the ball is going. 

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Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

I don't buy the open rate stat at all. It seems skewed to the actual pass attempt. Well, Jimmy is only looking at one are of the field so how does even work? Of course the windows are going to be tighter throwing those slants to Deebo since teams know that's where the ball is going. 

Yeah, that’s the one metric that seems pretty wonky and influenced by the qb’s own style and behavior. 

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Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

I don't buy the open rate stat at all. It seems skewed to the actual pass attempt. Well, Jimmy is only looking at one are of the field so how does even work? Of course the windows are going to be tighter throwing those slants to Deebo since teams know that's where the ball is going. 

Correct. I find it odd to use that stat as opposed to drops (or not include drops at all for that matter), though I do like the idea of having an "open rate" 

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3 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, that’s the one metric that seems pretty wonky and influenced by the qb’s own style and behavior. 

This is why I hate these "advanced" stats thrown out by these guys since they don't explain how it works. Fans just go off of what they tell you and don't understand the nuances at all. This is why I have a gripe about some of the PFF stats. A corner or LB doing their job and not getting thrown out is getting a lower job than a corner who gets targets 8 times and allows 90 yards but has two PDs. In what world does that make any sense??

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

Correct. I find it odd to use that stat as opposed to drops (or not include drops at all for that matter), though I do like the idea of having an "open rate" 

If you want to use "open rate" then look at ALL the receivers on that certain play and not the one just getting targeted. Kittle was WIDE open yet Jimmy tries to force it to Deebo in double coverage and overthrows him by 5 yards. That will go down as tightly covered even though Kittle should have gotten the ball on that play and no one was 10 yards near him. 

No one in their right mind will think Wilson has more help than Jimmy lol.

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4 minutes ago, Forge said:

Correct. I find it odd to use that stat as opposed to drops (or not include drops at all for that matter), though I do like the idea of having an "open rate" 

Either way, Jimmy G is pretty good in spite of the coverage troubles associated with playing as Jimmy G. XD

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8 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

 

If you want to use "open rate" then look at ALL the receivers on that certain play and not the one just getting targeted. Kittle was WIDE open yet Jimmy tries to force it to Deebo in double coverage and overthrows him by 5 yards. That will go down as tightly covered even though Kittle should have gotten the ball on that play and no one was 10 yards near him. 

No one in their right mind will think Wilson has more help than Jimmy lol.

This would have to be the way to do it...and if they have the manpower to do that, I think that would be an awesome thing to have known from one of these advanced statistics places. 

 

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17 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Funny thing is the throw that PFF gave Jimbo credit for as a BTT was that Jennings miss. 

I kind of get it both ways. I get what JTO is saying that Jimmy has the entire back of the endzone so why did he try to fit in in that small area. But at the same time that was nearly a perfect throw for that very specific spot which I think was intentional. If he had thrown more toward the back corner, Jennings could struggle with the ball tracking as he adjusts and it may be just as difficult of a catch. So one way is a harder throw, but the other way forces an adjustment. 

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1 hour ago, GW21 said:

Seahawks activated Adrian Peterson. Watch him go off for like 200 yards. 
 

giphy.gif?cid=5e21488652uvwow6sf97mqfzgr

Our run defense looked really good last week. Cook broke off one big run but overall it was on point. Armstead sliding inside and Ebukam on the outside have really helped turn it around. I'll be disappointed if the Seahawks have a good day running the ball after we did so well against Robinson/Cook in back to back weeks. 

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1 hour ago, GW21 said:

Seahawks activated Adrian Peterson. Watch him go off for like 200 yards. 
 

giphy.gif?cid=5e21488652uvwow6sf97mqfzgr

I expect Peterson will be as good as Marshawn Lynch was the last time the seahawks signed him just before playing us. He was a non-factor. Peterson will have 2 carries, they'll fall behind and just throw the ball the rest of the way.

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So today we're rooting for...

-Dolphins over Giants

-Lions over Vikings

-Jets over Eagles

-Cardinals over Bears (ugh)

-Bucs over Falcons

-Raiders over Falcons

-Jags over Rams (heh)

Saints lost on Thursday which is good too

 

Edited by 49ersfan
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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

@49erscap @Forge The expected cap number for 2022 more or less than originally predicted? 

I think a little more, but OTC has already updated to match the projected 208. I think originally they had something like 205, but I can't say for sure. 

The league is still a little behind where it was pre pandemic. 208M likely would have been about the cap this year in a non pandemic situation 

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8 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think a little more, but OTC has already updated to match the projected 208. I think originally they had something like 205, but I can't say for sure. 

The league is still a little behind where it was pre pandemic. 208M likely would have been about the cap this year in a non pandemic situation 

The new deals are coming next offseason right? Disney and Amazon want a piece of the digital rights to NFL Sunday Ticket. I just hope DirecTV keeps the rights to the cable/satellite providers. 

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