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Week 13: Patriots @ Bills (MNF)


Apparition

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Ah, analysis...

Offense

Points scored: 29.6/game (2nd)

Yards gained: 389.3/game (5th)

Passing offense: 279-for-418, 2,981 yards, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 0.194 EPA (3rd), 18.4% DVOA (16th)

Rushing offense: 285 carries, 1,301 yards, 12 touchdowns, -0.075 EPA (17th), -8.3% DVOA (19th)

 

 

Defense

Points against: 16.5/game (2nd)

Yards given up: 275.2/game (1st)

Passing defense: 212-for-368, 1,964 yards, 9 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, -0.111 EPA (2nd), -24.9% DVOA (1st)

Rushing defense: 272 carries, 1,063 yards, 11 touchdowns, -0.188 EPA (1st), -19.2% DVOA (4th)

 

So by DVOA on offense they're not as flash as actual stats would show, this may be because their D is 100% legit in every measurable. 1st in EPA on the ground and 2nd through the air is really friggin good. 

Mac is going to have his toughest game. I hope he doesn't have his first actual "rookie" game, but I cannot see how he doesn't at least struggle through drives. No White probably makes a good deal of difference though.

Last time we faced a team that supposedly elite at stopping the run, we ran really well. I feel like 'vs run' stats is so heavily contextualised and opponent-dependant. 

I guess people could also point to SOS?

 

Dugger on COVID by the way

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40 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

Buffalos offensive line stinks. Clear advantage for NE

Correct, they stink when they're missing their stud rookie RT and starting LG but both are returning this week off the IR and COVID list. Spencer Brown is looking like our RT for the next 10 years but didn't get put into the starting line up until week 4. Then unfortunately got hurt/COVID and missed some games. 

  • Bad OL : Dawkins - Boettger - Morse - Ford - Williams
  • Good OL : Dawkins - Feliciano - Morse - Williams - Brown (MNF line up)

In the (4) weeks that Spencer Brown is our RT, Williams is RG and Feliciano is playing - Bills offense averaged 39 PPG & 1 sack allowed.

That said, who the F knows how both players are going to play coming off an injury and COVID.

Going to be a dog fight of a game imo and the winner will be in the drivers seat for the division and #1 overall seed.

I won't say good luck 😅 but I hope it's a clean, injury free game that isn't penalty heavy like alot of games have been this season.

 

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4 minutes ago, jofos said:

Not having Dugger would be big. It's possible he plays and it helps to have an extra day, I'm not sure who would/could replace him.

his role is pretty unique in the defense. It would change the entire scheme, honestly. It kinda kills our flexibility and ability to disguise our D. We need an extra LB in situation where we wouldn't if Dugger was there. 

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Some cold water poured on our D from Sharp...

 

We have held four straight opponents to a total of 26 points; 6.5 PPG. However, bad offenses in this stretch

Pats number 2 in EPA defense, but also 2nd easiest schedule of offenses faced 

TEN punted only twice, after drives behind the 15. If TEN started at 25 yard line or better (7 drives), they drove it into our territory on 6 of those, gained 40 or more on 5 of 7. 

1st 3rd quarters they had 7.5 yards per pass, 5.9 yards per carry. Despite all their injuries. 

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