Trey Lances devolopment (it failed)

[burlow]

I was unable to watch this game because of work, the big thing that stuck out to me his first start against Arizona is that it felt like Shanny had a mission to showcase Lance as a runner and it felt like a flawed game plan trying to beat that square peg in a round hole.

If you recall him talking about Allen and how it puts the pressure on the defense of forcing the defense to play "11 on 11" treating the QB like a threat instead of "10 on 11" because the QB is not a threat.  That arizone game just felt forced to me. 

It seemed to be cleaned up in his start vs the Texans, I watched the highlights of the bears game but I could not get a feel for how it worked.  I think as Shanny get use to calling plays for Lance the games will look a lot better for us.

[757-NINER]

2 minutes ago, burlow said:

I was unable to watch this game because of work, the big thing that stuck out to me his first start against Arizona is that it felt like Shanny had a mission to showcase Lance as a runner and it felt like a flawed game plan trying to beat that square peg in a round hole.

If you recall him talking about Allen and how it puts the pressure on the defense of forcing the defense to play "11 on 11" treating the QB like a threat instead of "10 on 11" because the QB is not a threat.  That arizone game just felt forced to me. 

It seemed to be cleaned up in his start vs the Texans, I watched the highlights of the bears game but I could not get a feel for how it worked.  I think as Shanny get use to calling plays for Lance the games will look a lot better for us.

That's a great point as well. 

I think at this juncture, making use of Lance's legs as a part of the gameplan might be detrimental. Let him naturally use his legs in a off-schedule kind of way. Maybe you incoperate some read option in the redzone but I would limit it to that area of the field. Let's elvole his play from the pocket first, then incoperate his mobility into the gameplan as the game slows down for him and he can process faster. Because right now, it's not looking fluid on Lance's end.

 

[adamq]

 

#MeaninglessStat

 

#UNLESS ITS ABOUT MY GUY!

[JIllg]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

 

#MeaninglessStat

 

#UNLESS ITS ABOUT MY GUY!

I mean, big time throw rate over the course of a season or two of samples has been a really nice indicator of a quarterback making impressive plays with his arm rather than the supporting cast having done the larger part of the work for most of the year. The same with turnover worthy play rate. In aggregate, turnover worthy play rate helps you get at which quarterbacks are playing in a sense where they "should" be responsible for more turnovers in the long haul. But in a one game sample with very few passing dropbacks, individual decisions over whether or not something should be considered "turnover worthy" or "big time" matter. And those are always going to be subjective individually, but aggregate to a meaningful number over time (like baseball range factor, etc.).

I'm pretty sure they gave Lance "big time" throws for that pretty deep over route and perhaps the out route to Aiyuk that gotten taken back by penalty and perhaps the slot fade to Jennings. But as you can see, with a small number of snaps, if you add or take away any one of those you end up vastly different big time throw rates (and turnover worthy play rates). If it continues over a longer, more meaningful sample, it will actually be a hugely important stat for Lance. If your quarterback is making a few special plays on his own that others can't it does make up for missing a few that just about everyone would make. Early career Andrew Luck was very like this. There are plenty of other examples. The same is true in reverse if Lance's high turnover worthy play rate continues in a larger sample that isn't super dependent on whether or not an individual heat seeking missile that gets tipped by a linebacker or corner's fingertips is "turnover worthy". 

Edited September 14, 2022 by JIllg
brain fart

[Herodreamer79]

And he did it in a monsoon, no less. 

He was ripping effortless 30 yard throws on a rope early in the game.

Yes he missed the throw to Kroft. Normally that would have been Kittle who was one of his favorite targets in camp and whom he rarely missed with. 

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Herodreamer79

[Herodreamer79]

 

Speaking of big time throws .... check this thread out. 

And Lance threw his in pissing rain. 

 

3 hours ago, adamq said:

#MeaninglessStat

 

#UNLESS ITS ABOUT MY GUY AGAINST MY NARRATIVE!

FIXED

Edited September 14, 2022 by Herodreamer79

[Forge]

3 hours ago, adamq said:

 

#MeaninglessStat

 

#UNLESS ITS ABOUT MY GUY!

lol it is funny when you consider that the total number of big time throws was 2 

[adamq]

3 hours ago, JIllg said:

I mean, big time throw rate over the course of a season or two of samples has been a really nice indicator of a quarterback making impressive plays with his arm rather than the supporting cast having done the larger part of the work for most of the year.

Thats really all I was trying to say. PFF stats aren't the be all end all to begin with, but unless there is a meaningful sample size they are worthless.

I would also like to see their process, I'm pretty skeptical that they can have multiple people grade every single player on every team overnight. 

 

"PFF definition of a Big-Time Throw: A big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window"

 

 "generally thrown further downfield and/or into a tighter window"

Worse than I thought, really. That's nonsense. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by adamq

[John232]

i already hate this year. H&M just don’t inspire confidence. truly not homers. And I hate that they’ll likely be right. if Trey sucks for 6 games, that’s probably it for him, period. i think what Jed said is not true, they will not wait multiple years, off and ok with him. their have been like 3 guys to pull off coming back from bust label. Alex Smith, Rich Gannon (Maybe?) and Young, meaning they’re *** got canned/dealt and they still put up a great career. ngl, if trey busts because lance wa a poorly developed, i’ll be out on him. it will set this team back years. not to mention the other glaring issues around his hyper conservative nature, horrible early round drafting and weird position valuations. just not about it 

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, John232 said:

i already hate this year. H&M just don’t inspire confidence. truly not homers. And I hate that they’ll likely be right. if Trey sucks for 6 games, that’s probably it for him, period. i think what Jed said is not true, they will not wait multiple years, off and ok with him. their have been like 3 guys to pull off coming back from bust label. Alex Smith, Rich Gannon (Maybe?) and Young, meaning they’re *** got canned/dealt and they still put up a great career. ngl, if trey busts because lance wa a poorly developed, i’ll be out on him. it will set this team back years. not to mention the other glaring issues around his hyper conservative nature, horrible early round drafting and weird position valuations. just not about it 

Kirk cousins may be available next year. 

But seriously, I feel like middlekauf is all the way out on Trey Lance. Or he will be there shortly lol. Don't listen if you already feel bad 😂

Lance has a lot of issues. I think it's hard to say if they are fundamental flaws that can't be repaired. It's possible they are

[JIllg]

2 minutes ago, John232 said:

i already hate this year. H&M just don’t inspire confidence. truly not homers. And I hate that they’ll likely be right. if Trey sucks for 6 games, that’s probably it for him, period. i think what Jed said is not true, they will not wait multiple years, off and ok with him. their have been like 3 guys to pull off coming back from bust label. Alex Smith, Rich Gannon (Maybe?) and Young, meaning they’re *** got canned/dealt and they still put up a great career. ngl, if trey busts because lance wa a poorly developed, i’ll be out on him. it will set this team back years. not to mention the other glaring issues around his hyper conservative nature, horrible early round drafting and weird position valuations. just not about it 

I just think bouncing on Trey this early is trying to play your hand of cards down two different lines at the same time. If you wanted to take an elite roster and go with a serviceable veteran or an already ready to be an effective enough rookie with fewer growing pains and a lower theoretical ceiling that would consistently work, you had that choice.

You already changed out the offensive coaching staff (some was by necessity and some was very much not to get folks that were bought in to the quarterback run game stuff). If you want to shoot the moon, you have to get the queen of spades eventually. It can sink your whole game to go for it, I get it. Sometimes the hand looks marginal, I get it. But you have to actually shoot the shot. Because you can scrape out good seasons with average quarterbacks on the margins and be damn good for a couple of years at a time with them when you have great young players on rookie deals or really good value veterans or both. But to shoot the moon, to become a dynasty, to have ten years of consistent success, you need the guy at quarterback. It covers the multitude of sins.

The thing Trey Lance needs most is reps both from an evaluation standpoint (if you know definitively that shooting the moon is out and the hand has no shot to pan out, then you do have to bail) and from a development standpoint. Maybe six games is enough for that. If Lance is roughly average and Jimmy-ish, he should find his way into a couple of better games and the team's range of outcomes should be around the 9 or 10 wins you'd expect to get with Jimmy. The question comes if he isn't. And I get why you'd make the change. I do. You've got some proud men that want and deserve the best chance at winning and by that point, you could very well be sunk cost fallacy-ing the thing. But I don't know, with a guy that young and raw and with so few reps (when the point at the time was to get a young and raw guy with few reps that you could mold), I can't buy making the move that quickly. And Jimmy might very well get you to the playoffs and/or help you win a game or two there with a very talented roster and clever playcalling on the margins. But there's a limit to that success. And it straight up isn't sustainable.

 

[John232]

Yeah, in short, if you traded 3 first founders and more to evaluate a guy you weren’t sold on, you messed up. And if you can’t rectify it, you’re fired. The thing is, Shanny is an insane floor raiser as a coach, but he cannot develop qb’s. Period. So yeah, I’m pretty passed about it and I’m pissed about how they’ve handled it. If the pure goal is to win year over year, which it should be, then why not go all in on Brady? Was a Super Bowl run with jimmy really stopping you? It’s hindsight but they’re not logically consistent and throwing away capital ]. Lots of it. To then pull the plug after 6 games would forever sour me on him, loser ****. On top of the ultra conservative play calling. Brilliant offensive kind, guys play hard for him but his clear stubbornness is gonna doom this team

[John232]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Kirk cousins may be available next year. 

But seriously, I feel like middlekauf is all the way out on Trey Lance. Or he will be there shortly lol. Don't listen if you already feel bad 😂

Lance has a lot of issues. I think it's hard to say if they are fundamental flaws that can't be repaired. It's possible they are

He’s completely out. I also thought he was full on boomer this past pod. The narrative that Lance didn’t make any big plays is so out of pocket, he had multiple deep passes and kept this game going just with his legs. The defense **** the bed and Trey, a 22 year old, couldn’t carry the team while it imploded not a shocker, I’m. It even sure fields was better,  just infuriating how 49ers reporters want to be fair, but are anything but. ******* jimmy g was getting his *** handed too him all year last year and now Trey is the one with the Shiite leash? Are you serious?

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

43 minutes ago, John232 said:

Shiite leash? Are you serious?

[John232]

33 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Lmao. Short , but amazing retort