Trey Lances devolopment (it failed)

[Herodreamer79]

Regardless, this is going to be fun to see how it plays out. Could be some tough decisions coming. 

If Purdy shocks the world and wins a superbowl... he makes the whole thing easy. I dont think there's any question. 

but outside of that... Brady is something i could get behind next year. 

I also think a Purdy/Lance QB competition is totally fair. 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Herodreamer79

[9erFreak77]

16 hours ago, Herodreamer79 said:

at some point the 49ers have to stop kicking the can down the road and start him regardless. 

you cant cut loose of a player you invested 3 first round picks in after 4 starts.

we don't even know what we don't know about him yet. they cut bait too soon and he could end up on the Raiders or the seahawks and turn into jalen hurts in 2 years.

eventually the fans and the haters are gonna have to put their big boy pants on, suck up the tears and watch lance find his way for a year or two.

Im in agreement with this…..we had one big boy pant leg on this year we just need the other one on lol.

[John232]

yeah, if we win a playoff game with purdy i think it’s brock’s job to lose. Kind of sad because lance didn’t even get really much of a shot. league is brutal. but brock is just looking incredibly legit.

 

i do worry long term he presents the same problem jimmy g does, which is how capped is our offense with his lack of arm talent?

[757-NINER]

6 minutes ago, John232 said:

i do worry long term he presents the same problem jimmy g does, which is how capped is our offense with his lack of arm talent?

Which is why they're still going to give Trey a shot.

Purdy's emergence just means Lance will have to earn the QB1 spot going forward. It won't be handed to him. 

As good as Purdy has looked, you can still see the limitations/ceiling with him as a QB1. 

Regardless of how this season plays out, there's still too much upside/potential in Lance to think we're going to be all-in on Purdy now and walk away from the investment that was made. Lance will get every opportunity to prove it, on the field...as he should. 

[Chrissooner49er]

7 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

Which is why they're still going to give Trey a shot.

Purdy's emergence just means Lance will have to earn the QB1 spot going forward. It won't be handed to him. 

As good as Purdy has looked, you can still see the limitations/ceiling with him as a QB1. 

Regardless of how this season plays out, there's still too much upside/potential in Lance to think we're going to be all-in on Purdy now and walk away from the investment that was made. Lance will get every opportunity to prove it, on the field...as he should. 

However, between these two, I do believe we should let Jimmy G walk away. We do not need or want a 3 way competition. Let the youngsters compete for it. 

[JIllg]

1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

However, between these two, I do believe we should let Jimmy G walk away. We do not need or want a 3 way competition. Let the youngsters compete for it. 

Yeah, I was all for having a (probably non-Jimmy G for monetary reasons) mediocre veteran around just to make sure there was someone in the room who could raise the floor and make sure the car stayed on the road and this excellent roster wasn't wasted. I'm confident that Purdy at least does that. Purdy does it under extreme cost control. Even if he's just a reliable mediocre starter type, it is a huge win. It gives us major injury and floor insurance. And we could still shoot the moon with either rookie and get more than the mediocre starter type. You couldn't draw it up better unless Lance had already shot the moon this season.

[J-ALL-DAY]

12 hours ago, John232 said:

yeah, if we win a playoff game with purdy i think it’s brock’s job to lose. Kind of sad because lance didn’t even get really much of a shot. league is brutal. but brock is just looking incredibly legit.

 

i do worry long term he presents the same problem jimmy g does, which is how capped is our offense with his lack of arm talent?

All Purdy does is allow us to move on from Jimmy for once and all. He is basically Jimmy with inferior arm strength but superior IQ and mobility. Purdy on most teams would be an average to slight below average QB but with Shanny, he will always produce well. And we know if we get a QB like that, this team is going to win a WHOLE A LOT of games. But he definitely has limitations and will be one that throws a lot of INTs due to his lack of arm strength. 

Having a QB room of Lance/Purdy would be a super cheap one that allows us to keep majority of our top players. If you give Jimmy say 20-25M? Then that slightly changes. Or even giving someone like Brady 20-25M. 

Our QB room will be Lance and Purdy next year. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by J-ALL-DAY

[NinerNation21]

You know, looking at Purdy's season numbers this morning is interesting because they're not that much different than Trey's numbers from last season. 

Just looking at the numbers, Purdy is more accurate but Lance had better downfield strike ability. But if you look at the bulk stats like yards and TDs, we're pretty much getting from Purdy what Trey gave us last season. 

Now, it looks completely different, but the results are similar. 

I really don't know what to make of this other than I really like these two guys and Shanahan has done a great job to create environments for success for both of these guys. 

[757-NINER]

2 hours ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, I was all for having a (probably non-Jimmy G for monetary reasons) mediocre veteran around just to make sure there was someone in the room who could raise the floor and make sure the car stayed on the road and this excellent roster wasn't wasted. I'm confident that Purdy at least does that. Purdy does it under extreme cost control. Even if he's just a reliable mediocre starter type, it is a huge win. It gives us major injury and floor insurance. And we could still shoot the moon with either rookie and get more than the mediocre starter type. You couldn't draw it up better unless Lance had already shot the moon this season.

Excatly. Couldn't have said it any better...

[Forge]

1 hour ago, NinerNation21 said:

You know, looking at Purdy's season numbers this morning is interesting because they're not that much different than Trey's numbers from last season. 

Just looking at the numbers, Purdy is more accurate but Lance had better downfield strike ability. But if you look at the bulk stats like yards and TDs, we're pretty much getting from Purdy what Trey gave us last season. 

Now, it looks completely different, but the results are similar. 

I really don't know what to make of this other than I really like these two guys and Shanahan has done a great job to create environments for success for both of these guys. 

I do think that explosive strike ability matters. We haven't seen Purdy play from behind yet and I imagine that right now, a lot of people feel the same about Purdy as they do about Jimmy in that regard; if we get down 14-17 points, you don't love the odds of coming back (nor should you for any QB, but obviously you'd tend to side more on the guys that make big plays happen on their own). We haven't seen Purdy play in any sort of adverse conditions yet either. What's his game look like in just clear but windy weather? 

The other  thing is, it's never worse to be multiple, and that's where the upside of Trey comes in. Ultimately, he does have the upside to put up better stats and hit a slightly higher level. But even if he just put up similar stats, but could do it in a truly multitude of different ways, it would make the team harder to defend week in and week out, which in theory could lead to more wins despite similar statistics / production. 

Now, in order to do that, Trey has to get better. Flat out. He's not there yet, and I don't know if he ever will. He has the downfield strike ability, we all knew that. His running ability is clearly not what people thought, but you can live with that because frankly, I don't want to use him on a bunch of QB powers. I really just want him to have an ability to break containment and pick up a 3rd and 12 if the defense leaves him open. 

But if he develops a truly good short and intermediate game, gets faster in unloading the ball...week in and week out he's just hard to defend. The offense can adjust on the fly. Team wants to roll out single high with a robber to muddy it up underneath? Trey has the tools to beat you at the edges and down the field consistently if he finds the ability to do so. If you want to play two high and he develops that underneath game, he can do that. Quarters coverage? Spam mesh. It doesn't mean that I think he'll ever find that ability, but I think he has a better chance at being that dude than Purdy does based on the latter's physical limitations. 

Purdy is already proving me wrong, but we are only three games in and I still don't know what the overall upside would be here. We haven't seen teams adjust and is this just going to be a situation like Jimmy where the game works when it works and doesn't when it doesn't and there's not much else the team can do when it doesn't ? We've all seen that happen with Jimmy multiple times.  

[757-NINER]

11 minutes ago, Forge said:

I do think that explosive strike ability matters. We haven't seen Purdy play from behind yet and I imagine that right now, a lot of people feel the same about Purdy as they do about Jimmy in that regard; if we get down 14-17 points, you don't love the odds of coming back (nor should you for any QB, but obviously you'd tend to side more on the guys that make big plays happen on their own). We haven't seen Purdy play in any sort of adverse conditions yet either. What's his game look like in just clear but windy weather? 

The other  thing is, it's never worse to be multiple, and that's where the upside of Trey comes in. Ultimately, he does have the upside to put up better stats and hit a slightly higher level. But even if he just put up similar stats, but could do it in a truly multitude of different ways, it would make the team harder to defend week in and week out, which in theory could lead to more wins despite similar statistics / production. 

Now, in order to do that, Trey has to get better. Flat out. He's not there yet, and I don't know if he ever will. He has the downfield strike ability, we all knew that. His running ability is clearly not what people thought, but you can live with that because frankly, I don't want to use him on a bunch of QB powers. I really just want him to have an ability to break containment and pick up a 3rd and 12 if the defense leaves him open. 

But if he develops a truly good short and intermediate game, gets faster in unloading the ball...week in and week out he's just hard to defend. The offense can adjust on the fly. Team wants to roll out single high with a robber to muddy it up underneath? Trey has the tools to beat you at the edges and down the field consistently if he finds the ability to do so. If you want to play two high and he develops that underneath game, he can do that. It doesn't mean that I think he'll ever find that ability, but I think he has a better chance at being that dude than Purdy does based on the latter's physical limitations. 

Purdy is already proving me wrong, but we are only three games in and I still don't know what the overall upside would be here. We haven't seen teams adjust and is this just going to be a situation like Jimmy where the game works when it works and doesn't when it doesn't and there's not much else the team can do when it doesn't ? We've all seen that happen with Jimmy multiple times.  

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

25 minutes ago, Forge said:

I do think that explosive strike ability matters. We haven't seen Purdy play from behind yet and I imagine that right now, a lot of people feel the same about Purdy as they do about Jimmy in that regard; if we get down 14-17 points, you don't love the odds of coming back (nor should you for any QB, but obviously you'd tend to side more on the guys that make big plays happen on their own). We haven't seen Purdy play in any sort of adverse conditions yet either. What's his game look like in just clear but windy weather? 

The other  thing is, it's never worse to be multiple, and that's where the upside of Trey comes in. Ultimately, he does have the upside to put up better stats and hit a slightly higher level. But even if he just put up similar stats, but could do it in a truly multitude of different ways, it would make the team harder to defend week in and week out, which in theory could lead to more wins despite similar statistics / production. 

Now, in order to do that, Trey has to get better. Flat out. He's not there yet, and I don't know if he ever will. He has the downfield strike ability, we all knew that. His running ability is clearly not what people thought, but you can live with that because frankly, I don't want to use him on a bunch of QB powers. I really just want him to have an ability to break containment and pick up a 3rd and 12 if the defense leaves him open. 

But if he develops a truly good short and intermediate game, gets faster in unloading the ball...week in and week out he's just hard to defend. The offense can adjust on the fly. Team wants to roll out single high with a robber to muddy it up underneath? Trey has the tools to beat you at the edges and down the field consistently if he finds the ability to do so. If you want to play two high and he develops that underneath game, he can do that. It doesn't mean that I think he'll ever find that ability, but I think he has a better chance at being that dude than Purdy does based on the latter's physical limitations. 

Purdy is already proving me wrong, but we are only three games in and I still don't know what the overall upside would be here. We haven't seen teams adjust and is this just going to be a situation like Jimmy where the game works when it works and doesn't when it doesn't and there's not much else the team can do when it doesn't ? We've all seen that happen with Jimmy multiple times.  

Brock is not Jimmy, Jimmy was different.  The way they use their feet makes more difference than I anticipated within the system.  Jimmy at his best had two feet placements, throw right, and throw left, he compensates with hip torque and uses arm angle to find throwing windows.  I feel like his lack of arm strength and his lack of ability to buy time for the 2nd  and third read had him checkmated at certain points.  You couple in his unwillingness to work the sideline against inside leverage and how often he misses late developing gimmies because he didn't want to look past his 2nd read, and you have something that is stoppable at times with pressure and inside leverage.  

Purdy takes the gimmies, that is huge.  When defenses put a lot of pressure on the short, inside routes and the running game it tends to create breakdowns on the back end.  We even see it with our own defense from time to time.  If you miss the gimmies, then the defense has no reason to play a more balanced playset.

 

Brocks feet are pretty sweet.  I feel like Loras the Clubfoot watching Purdy's feet in the pocket.  He uses his feet to move through his reads, you can see him go through them, but what really makes it special is the timing.  He knows the purpose of each read and receiver placement, and he is even able to coordinate his pocket movements with those reads.  It's looked really good so far.

 

Comparing him to Lance is different.  We don't know where Lance is right now.  Lance did not play 4 years of college ball, and even though I have no doubt he is developing into a good QB, I am not sure if he is developing into the right QB for this offense.  We need a guy who excels in the short game first and foremost.  Lance hasn't shown he has the tools to do that.  He is still as green as sunshine, so things could look very different next year than this year.

 

Jimmy was winless when trailing by 4 or more in the 4th quarter over his stay here.  Not sure if it was a Jimmy thing, or a team thing, but expecting the rookie to come in and change that might be asking a bit much, and it seems to be moving the goal posts a little, and placing value on something that doesn't matter as much.

 

If the team is coming back from 17 points on the regular, there are bigger problems than the QB.  This team has been in that situation once this year.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[757-NINER]

7 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Brock is not Jimmy, Jimmy was different.  The way they use their feet makes more difference than I anticipated within the system.  Jimmy at his best had two feet placements, throw right, and throw left, he compensates with hip torque and uses arm angle to find throwing windows.  I feel like his lack of arm strength and his lack of ability to buy time for the 2nd  and third read had him checkmated at certain points.  You couple in his unwillingness to work the sideline against inside leverage and how often he misses late developing gimmies because he didn't want to look past his 2nd read, and you have something that is stoppable at times with pressure and inside leverage.  

Purdy takes the gimmies, that is huge.  When defenses put a lot of pressure on the short, inside routes and the running game it tends to create breakdowns on the back end.  We even see it with our own defense from time to time.  If you miss the gimmies, then the defense has no reason to play a more balanced playset.

 

Brocks feet are pretty sweet.  I feel like Loras the Clubfoot watching Purdy's feet in the pocket.  He uses his feet to move through his reads, you can see him go through them, but what really makes it special is the timing.  He knows the purpose of each read and receiver placement, and he is even able to coordinate his pocket movements with those reads.  It's looked really good so far.

 

Comparing him to Lance is different.  We don't know where Lance is right now.  Lance did not play 4 years of college ball, and even though I have no doubt he is developing into a good QB, I am not sure if he is developing into the right QB for this offense.  We need a guy who excels in the short game first and foremost.  Lance hasn't shown he has the tools to do that.  He is still as green as sunshine, so things could look very different next year than this year.

 

Jimmy was winless when trailing by 4 or more in the 4th quarter over his stay here.  Not sure if it was a Jimmy thing, or a team thing, but expecting the rookie to come in and change that might be asking a bit much, and it seems to be moving the goal posts a little, and placing value on something that doesn't matter as much.

 

If the team is coming back from 17 points on the regular, there are bigger problems than the QB.  This team has been in that situation once this year.

All valid points. And I definitely agree with the footwork and how that ties into being able to get through progressions, efficiently and smoother. 

But I think what @Forge is alluding to is the limitations from a style of play and arm talent perspective.

Bring able to process quickly and efficiently can allow you to circumvent some physical limitations. But even last night, you could see some moments and windows that having better arm talent allows for. 

I think Purdy will be a bit streaking on those out-breaking routes. Those deep-ins and hook routes will not be as much of an option unless protection and timing are in lock-step. 

And not saying Lance's inability in the short-game isn't a hindrance either. But the ability to get huge chunk plays is a real byproduct that's needed in the modern game. Being methodical and accurate all the way down the field leaves very little wiggle room. Like with Jimmy, the offense under Purdy takes on more of this characteristic. Just the ability to be able to deliver a home-run ball mskes defending this offense that much harder.

[Forge]

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Brock is not Jimmy, Jimmy was different.  The way they use their feet makes more difference than I anticipated within the system.  Jimmy at his best had two feet placements, throw right, and throw left, he compensates with hip torque and uses arm angle to find throwing windows.  I feel like his lack of arm strength and his lack of ability to buy time for the 2nd  and third read had him checkmated at certain points.  You couple in his unwillingness to work the sideline against inside leverage and how often he misses late developing gimmies because he didn't want to look past his 2nd read, and you have something that is stoppable at times with pressure and inside leverage.  

 

So far, Purdy looks better deeper into progressions than Jimmy does. Certainly has more ability to go off script and create a little more. Agree that Jimmy got nervous when his internal alarm clock went off; perhaps because he knew he couldn't do anything to get away from it. Always curious as to why he refused to throw the ball away. 

His numbers versus pressure will drop at some point though, so you have to see where it falls and rises back up to. And lets not get it twisted, he should probably have 4 INTs right now in less than 100 pass attempts. Yes, all QBs get lucky, but even then, 4+ % int rate would be pretty high (football outsiders ran these numbers a couple of years back and the league average adjusted INT rate when accounting for drops was about 3.4% in the last few years) 

But Purdy is still limited, physically. He just is.  Kyle can work around that...we have seen him be able to. How much of a hindrance is that, ultimately? Don't know. 

Jimmy and Purdy are different, but they feature some the same larger scope issues in their physical limitations. Purdy is more creative, but Jimmy is more aggressive and immediate, much more point and click, for sure (at least post ACL...he was more Romo like pre-ACL...that pass to Pettis against the Vikings in 2018 was very Romo-esque), but this is micro and I'm talking a little more macro. 

How impactful will the defensive adjustments be moving forward? As good as Purdy has been, lets not forget what Jimmy looked like for 5 games in 2017 with a faaaaaaaaar inferior cast around him. And he still ended up where he ended up. 

This will come back to earth for Purdy in some regard...I just don't know how much and ultimately, we are left in a similar overall position as to where the team was with Jimmy 

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Purdy takes the gimmies, that is huge.  When defenses put a lot of pressure on the short, inside routes and the running game it tends to create breakdowns on the back end.  We even see it with our own defense from time to time.  If you miss the gimmies, then the defense has no reason to play a more balanced playset.

 

 

This does help. Until CMC, Jimmy didn't really do that. May have been a function of his players. That said, a lot of this is scheme and design driven right now imo. Purdy is keeping quite a bit short; last night I think he threw 7 passes further than 6 yards down the field last night.  His average depth of target in both of prior to games was sub 6 yards. Shanny keeps that from being a total disaster because he somehow manages to keep defenses from just keying in on it most weeks just as he did with Jimmy, but it's still somewhat of a limitation in the overall designs and there are games where this struggles. You have to make every play count, just about. When that stuff isn't there, Purdy may have a better time at creating than Jimmy did, which is huge. 

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Brocks feet are pretty sweet.  I feel like Loras the Clubfoot watching Purdy's feet in the pocket.  He uses his feet to move through his reads, you can see him go through them, but what really makes it special is the timing.  He knows the purpose of each read and receiver placement, and he is even able to coordinate his pocket movements with those reads.  It's looked really good so far.

 

I actually really like quite a bit about Purdy's game. Has a really strong Football IQ. Doesn't mean he always makes the best decisions in terms of where to go with the ball, doesn't mean that he always sees everything, but things like keeping the ball out in front of him during the slide, is a good example. 

His throwing mechanics are really nice and versatile. I mentioned it yesterday, but saw some different release angles and such over his three games. His feet are good enough to move around and while there's a little inconsistency in his pocket movements, it's mostly been good. 

He is super calm. No freak out in his game. That play where he stumbled, got up and made a play won't get love since it was wiped out, but I can't begin to give him enough praise for that play. There aren't a ton of QBs who have the disposition to get something done there. 

 

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Comparing him to Lance is different.  We don't know where Lance is right now.  Lance did not play 4 years of college ball, and even though I have no doubt he is developing into a good QB, I am not sure if he is developing into the right QB for this offense.  We need a guy who excels in the short game first and foremost.  Lance hasn't shown he has the tools to do that.  He is still as green as sunshine, so things could look very different next year than this year.

 

Well, this is just reiterating what I said, so of course I agree with this lol 

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Jimmy was winless when trailing by 4 or more in the 4th quarter over his stay here.  Not sure if it was a Jimmy thing, or a team thing, but expecting the rookie to come in and change that might be asking a bit much, and it seems to be moving the goal posts a little, and placing value on something that doesn't matter as much.

 

Didn't ask him to change that, but this isn't moving goal posts. Being able to come from behind, being able to create chunk plays is very much a part of playing the position. Its one of the biggest things that speaks to Mahomes' greatness if we are being honest. We won't always have this type of defense and we won't always play the easiest schedule in the NFL (by win percentage, we have played the weakest schedule by a considerable amount) 

 

[Chrissooner49er]

Not going to quote, as that was a long post @Forge, but I agree: though it ended up being a non-play, that stumble and still getting the ball off AND complete? I cannot recall seeing that before...maybe my memory is too short, but I don't recall seeing any other QB do that.