Trey Lances devolopment (it failed)

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

So far, Purdy looks better deeper into progressions than Jimmy does. Certainly has more ability to go off script and create a little more. Agree that Jimmy got nervous when his internal alarm clock went off; perhaps because he knew he couldn't do anything to get away from it. Always curious as to why he refused to throw the ball away. 

His numbers versus pressure will drop at some point though, so you have to see where it falls and rises back up to. And lets not get it twisted, he should probably have 4 INTs right now in less than 100 pass attempts. Yes, all QBs get lucky, but even then, 4+ % int rate would be pretty high (football outsiders ran these numbers a couple of years back and the league average adjusted INT rate when accounting for drops was about 2.5% in the last few years) 

But Purdy is still limited, physically. He just is.  Kyle can work around that...we have seen him be able to. How much of a hindrance is that, ultimately? Don't know. 

Jimmy and Purdy are different, but they feature some the same larger scope issues in their physical limitations. Purdy is more creative, but Jimmy is more aggressive and immediate, much more point and click, for sure (at least post ACL...he was more Romo like pre-ACL...that pass to Pettis against the Vikings in 2018 was very Romo-esque), but this is micro and I'm talking a little more macro. 

How impactful will the defensive adjustments be moving forward? As good as Purdy has been, lets not forget what Jimmy looked like for 5 games in 2017 with a faaaaaaaaar inferior cast around him. And he still ended up where he ended up. 

This will come back to earth for Purdy in some regard...I just don't know how much and ultimately, we are left in a similar overall position as to where the team was with Jimmy 

 

This does help. Until CMC, Jimmy didn't really do that. May have been a function of his players. That said, a lot of this is scheme and design driven right now imo. Purdy is keeping quite a bit short; last night I think he threw 7 passes further than 6 yards down the field last night.  His average depth of target in both of prior to games was sub 6 yards. Shanny keeps that from being a total disaster because he somehow manages to keep defenses from just keying in on it most weeks just as he did with Jimmy, but it's still somewhat of a limitation in the overall designs and there are games where this struggles. You have to make every play count, just about. When that stuff isn't there, Purdy may have a better time at creating than Jimmy did, which is huge. 

I actually really like quite a bit about Purdy's game. Has a really strong Football IQ. Doesn't mean he always makes the best decisions in terms of where to go with the ball, doesn't mean that he always sees everything, but things like keeping the ball out in front of him during the slide, is a good example. 

His throwing mechanics are really nice and versatile. I mentioned it yesterday, but saw some different release angles and such over his three games. His feet are good enough to move around and while there's a little inconsistency in his pocket movements, it's mostly been good. 

He is super calm. No freak out in his game. That play where he stumbled, got up and made a play won't get love since it was wiped out, but I can't begin to give him enough praise for that play. There aren't a ton of QBs who have the disposition to get something done there. 

 

Well, this is just reiterating what I said, so of course I agree with this lol 

Didn't ask him to change that, but this isn't moving goal posts. Being able to come from behind, being able to create chunk plays is very much a part of playing the position. Its one of the biggest things that speaks to Mahomes' greatness if we are being honest. We won't always have this type of defense and we won't always play the easiest schedule in the NFL (by win percentage, we have played the weakest schedule by a considerable amount) 

 

I don't worry much about potential int%, because it would have to be compared to other guys who've had ints  called back for penalties and dropped balls.  Comparing potential int% to the standard set by actual int% is not a fair and even statistical comparison. I feel like it's something  that evens out over time given enough reps.  Although it seems like Jimmy used to get away with a ton of those, and Alex could never catch a break.  

 

Projecting out the rest of this year, I don't think his limitations will be an issue.  Projecting out 5 years, I agree about the physical limitations causing issues. 

I think the two maim questions are "is Purdy good enough to get it done?"  And I think the answer is yes, but a lot changes over time.

 

The second question is whether Purdy gives the team a better chance to win compared to Lance, and that is a big unknown at this point.  I am on my phone, so I can't provide a full response to this at the moment.

Mahomes is an outlier.  17 point comebacks are pretty rare.  Tom Brady has 4 (as of Dec 2021)

 

[Forge]

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I don't worry much about potential int%, because it would have to be compared to other guys who've had ints  called back for penalties and dropped balls.  Comparing potential int% to the standard set by actual int% is not a fair and even statistical comparison. I feel like it's something  that evens out over time given enough reps.  Although it seems like Jimmy used to get away with a ton of those, and Alex could never catch a break.  

 

The number I was quoting was actually FO adjusted INT rates, which accounts for drops on everyone. It's not a perfect stat or anything, but very interesting and is a look at process over results. It requires some leeway (drops are subjective, after all, which is why you find different statistics depending on where you go). It's really just another "expected" stat, which is really big in hockey and gaining a ton of steam in analytical communities for the NFL (NGS, for example, uses a bunch of "yards per rush above expected" type stats now). I think its important to look at process along with results, but really, does the fact that Big Ben threw 22 less interceptions between 2007 - 2021 than he probably should have mean anything? Probably not in the grand scheme of things .

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Projecting out the rest of this year, I don't think his limitations will be an issue.  Projecting out 5 years, I agree about the physical limitations causing issues. 

 

I think I'm kind of there with you. I'm still concerned about Purdy's long term viability, but I think I'm no less comfortable with him right now than I am Jimmy G. This probably isn't a surprise to people who have been here a while who know me...I'm very slow to latch on to things such as that. Even after Jimmy's 2017 performance I wasn't sold on him.  There definitely has to be somewhat of a concern that Purdy is already 80% of what he will be as an NFL QB. 

 

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

The second question is whether Purdy gives the team a better chance to win compared to Lance, and that is a big unknown at this point.  I am on my phone, so I can't provide a full response to this at the moment.

I don't think any of us know at this point. If Purdy continues to play well, I think you just let them battle it out. 

3 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Mahomes is an outlier.  17 point comebacks are pretty rare.  Tom Brady has 4 (as of Dec 2021)

 

You're focusing too much on the example I used and not so much the overall point - a QB being able to create explosive plays and chunk plays is important. That's my bad for using the example, but it was meant for a bigger overall point. Can the QB create that. Purdy is throwing to wide open receivers like 65% of the time right now per the NGS telecast last night. That's not Purdy being awesome, that's Shanny being awesome. Forget 14 points down. Can you go 80 yards in 53 seconds with one timeout to win or tie a game? Can you go 45 yards in 35 seconds to get into game winning field goal range? 

Its very hard to consistently put forth 12 play scoring drives consistently...and it gets even harder in the playoffs. 

It also goes back to what I said before in the first post - can you be multiple? Can you adapt when forced to and beat a defense in another way?  Can you create chunk plays down the field to open up the run game or underneath when you're playing a stout run defense or a team that is targeting your underneath routes. There is so much value in being able to create that kind vulnerability in a defense. 

Ultimately, what Purdy is now may actually be better than whatever Lance becomes. Its sad to say, but definitely a non zero chance of that happening. I'm just putting them in the meat grinder next year and letting them go. If nothing else, Purdy would hopefully give us a floor that is pretty damn good, even if he doesn't have the same ceiling as Lance. 

 

[GW21]

It’s pretty crazy that we are comparing the last pick in the draft in his rookie year to Jimmy lol. I love it.

I think the mere fact that this is a discussion is exciting for me. I do agree with the sentiment that if he wins out or takes us to the Super Bowl, that he will not be handed this job, but I also think there is room for growth with Purdy, both mentally and physically. 

I think a year in a pro weight and conditioning program and a full offseason to focus on building up his body could add a little stank to his throws. Obviously he’s not going to turn into Josh Allen or anything, but I think he’s got the arm to be an NFL starter if he does earn that job. 

I love watching him go through his reads. It’s really a thing of beauty watching a QB that can scan the field like he’s showing so far. 

If he continues on his current trajectory for the rest of this year, I think things will only get better next season.

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

The number I was quoting was actually FO adjusted INT rates, which accounts for drops on everyone. It's not a perfect stat or anything, but very interesting and is a look at process over results. It requires some leeway (drops are subjective, after all, which is why you find different statistics depending on where you go). It's really just another "expected" stat, which is really big in hockey and gaining a ton of steam in analytical communities for the NFL (NGS, for example, uses a bunch of "yards per rush above expected" type stats now). I think its important to look at process along with results, but really, does the fact that Big Ben threw 22 less interceptions between 2007 - 2021 than he probably should have mean anything? Probably not in the grand scheme of things .

I think I'm kind of there with you. I'm still concerned about Purdy's long term viability, but I think I'm no less comfortable with him right now than I am Jimmy G. This probably isn't a surprise to people who have been here a while who know me...I'm very slow to latch on to things such as that. Even after Jimmy's 2017 performance I wasn't sold on him.  There definitely has to be somewhat of a concern that Purdy is already 80% of what he will be as an NFL QB. 

 

I don't think any of us know at this point. If Purdy continues to play well, I think you just let them battle it out. 

You're focusing too much on the example I used and not so much the overall point - a QB being able to create explosive plays and chunk plays is important. That's my bad for using the example, but it was meant for a bigger overall point. Can the QB create that. Purdy is throwing to wide open receivers like 65% of the time right now per the NGS telecast last night. That's not Purdy being awesome, that's Shanny being awesome. Forget 14 points down. Can you go 80 yards in 53 seconds with one timeout to win or tie a game? Can you go 45 yards in 35 seconds to get into game winning field goal range? 

Its very hard to consistently put forth 12 play scoring drives consistently...and it gets even harder in the playoffs. 

It also goes back to what I said before in the first post - can you be multiple? Can you adapt when forced to and beat a defense in another way?  Can you create chunk plays down the field to open up the run game or underneath when you're playing a stout run defense or a team that is targeting your underneath routes. There is so much value in being able to create that kind vulnerability in a defense. 

Ultimately, what Purdy is now may actually be better than whatever Lance becomes. Its sad to say, but definitely a non zero chance of that happening. I'm just putting them in the meat grinder next year and letting them go. If nothing else, Purdy would hopefully give us a floor that is pretty damn good, even if he doesn't have the same ceiling as Lance. 

 

There are a few passes that Purdy would want back, but he is still a rookie, so one potential INT per game is expected, and the team is used to that from when Jimmy G played QB.  I think the ball security is fine.   The blitz he threw the INT on was pretty clever the specific way they backed out the blitzing backer.  If he falls for the same thing in year 4, there is a problem.  For now that is part of the learning curve, and the more learning moments he gets away with, rather than being punished for, the better it is for the team. 

 

I think Drew Breese and Joe Montana are two classic examples of players that were able to make plays late in games without superior arm strength.  

Setting aside the idea of comebacks, Having a deep ball in the tool box, as well as being able to push the ball down the sideline could open up a lot of other plays in the passing game.  Lance undoubtably has a higher ceiling than Purdy.  He also has a lower floor, and the longer he sits out from playing, the lower his floor gets.

A QB battle will happen next year, and if Lance is close to Purdy in the short passing game, he will get the job.  Now if we project out Lance's potential success he has two years left on his contract, and a 5th year option before he would command a very high salary, that would break up the general construction of the team, and it force the team to be more like other teams that have high paid franchise guys.  The Chiefs have to play young guys and let a ton of free agents go, but it can work.  

I don't think the team would trade lance just for the clarity in the QB room, but I'd imagine if Purdy plays well, and they get an offer that is good enough, they would consider it.  

I don't know what "wide open 65% of the time is," but Purdy threads it.  It's not like we want him throwing to the dudes that are covered anyway. He still has to see it and throw it.  The gimmies are not always a given.  Shanahan is awesome and it doesn't matter how good Purdy is without him, or his system.  The team gets chunk plays with breakdowns, the break downs come from teams trying to smash the short passing and running game.  

The 49ers defense is still very good, but they still give up huge play sometimes because they are so aggressive in the intermediate part of the field.  The 2011 team did not give up the wide open breakdowns like that, but they were more vulnerable in the intermediate area of the field.  

I'm excited to watch Purdy develop, and I hope teams don't figure out a way to stop him this year, or at all.  He may not be dangerous individually, like if he were traded to the Bears, but man with this specific group of skill guys and O-linemen, I think he can make some noise.  

 

 

[Forge]

I could see this being true

[Forge]

I feel like it's always something in our players' recoveries lol

[Herodreamer79]

 

The precise moment we'll find out if the 49ers totally blew it with Trey Lance is the moment that Sean Payton comes calling for a trade.

[Forge]

If this is the case, they should try and get back some value from the Lance pick. 

 

[GW21]

13 minutes ago, Forge said:

If this is the case, they should try and get back some value from the Lance pick. 

 

At least we didn't sell the farm to get him.... oh wait... 

If this is truely how the team feels, I hope they don't just give him away. While I understand his value isn't going to touch what we gave up for him, I think he still has to have more value than guys like Darnold and Rosen had. 

[Forge]

Just now, GW21 said:

At least we didn't sell the farm to get him.... oh wait... 

If this is truely how the team feels, I hope they don't just give him away. While I understand his value isn't going to touch what we gave up for him, I think he still has to have more value than guys like Darnold and Rosen had. 

I'll say the same thing I told Titans fans...if we give him away for just like a second round pick, that says pretty loudly how the team feels about him and the team getting him shouldn't feel that great about it lol 

I'd love to get Tennessee's or Houston's pick at 12, but I doubt either is remotely realistic. Tampa at 19 would be something I'd probably look at. 

I could see how the team does something like two second round picks at this point though. I don't know that there are a whole lot of trade options with a first round pick. 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

12 minutes ago, GW21 said:

At least we didn't sell the farm to get him.... oh wait... 

If this is truely how the team feels, I hope they don't just give him away. While I understand his value isn't going to touch what we gave up for him, I think he still has to have more value than guys like Darnold and Rosen had. 

We gave up three first rounders, who turn into players like McGlinchy, Solomon Thomas, Ruben Foster and Javon Kinlaw.  I'm just glad we didn't lose any third or 3rd or 5th rounders.  That's where we get most of out great players.

 

I think having coaches and gm's positioned around the NFL could help lift up Trey's market.  Where he us an unknown to most, 9ers coaches and execs know him pretty well.  Maybe the person who pounded the table for Lance is in a different front office or coaching staff.   Imagine Lance on Maimi throwing to hill and Waddle.  

It would take a top 20 pick to move the needle for me on Lance.

[Forge]

Worth noting that the silver does apparently say that Lance is perceived as not having much trade value, do seems like he'll just be the backup

Lol woof, what a miss

[Forge]

Tennessee second + Willis?

[jonnguy2015]

14 minutes ago, Forge said:

Tennessee second + Willis?

Shanny using Willis in a Taysom Hill-esque role would be pretty fun

[Forge]

Lol

 

I don't know why this makes me laugh, but it does. Maybe it's because I know Trey will get some shot somewhere