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What's Mac Jones' ceiling?


notthatbluestuff

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I think it’s absolutely impossible to determine what Mac Jones’ ceiling can be at this point in time. With the right coaching; the right teammates; in addition to his God-given talent, his ability to learn and adapt has no boundaries. He has proven he’s a winner, a team player and an enthusiastic presence. 
 

Before 2007, Tom Brady never had more than 28 touchdowns in a season. Yes, he had three championships, but there was still the “game-manager” tag still being applied to his accomplishments. What I’m getting at is that it took Brady -the GOAT- seven seasons to reach his ceiling, and some players NEVER reach their full potential at all. 
 

We can only speculate what Jones’ ceiling CAN be. Only time will tell what Jones’ ceiling WILL be. 

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14 hours ago, biggie. said:

It's completely relevant. As Bill Parcells said: you are what your record says you are. No amount of pointless statistics changes the fact that Philly are a below average team.

It's almost like a QB playing poorly in spite of the players around him doesn't lead to wins.

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6 hours ago, LoFi said:

Goff had a disastrous rookie season. It wasn't until McVey came around that he started having success. The thing that always stuck out to me about Goff is the fact that he never looked good under pressure. He seemed to fold at every turn when there was pressure put on him, especially in his later years with the Rams. 

From what I've seen as Mac Jones he is fundamentally a much different player. The first thing that jumps out at me is how poised he is for a rookie. He'll stand tall in the pocket with guys bearing down on him and he won't blink. He'll know he's going to take a huge hit and he'll still throw a perfectly placed ball as he's taking that hit. The pressure doesn't seem to phase him. His arm strength is also is not terrible like many people were claiming. No, he's not Josh Allen, but his arm talent is Chad Pennington levels either. Mac Jones has enough arm strength. 

I think the Patriots can still get quite a bit of performance out of Mac Jones. He's still unrefined as a player. Some plays he'll look like a seasoned veteran and other he will look like the rookie that he is. If he can continue to refine his game I think he can be a very successful QB in the NFL, if not one of the best. I think at the very least he can be a solid game manager QB that'll stick around in the NFL for years barring some kind of injury. 

What I said didn't have anything to do with Goff as a player or Mac as a player. It was about the comment. 

I was referring to people previously stating that Goff was really good if you gave him A, B, C, and Z without irony.

 

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Doesn’t look like a rookie a bit does he. I think they’re putting him on easy mode, but he still is changing things at the line and adjusting. He’s clearly very smart, and who knows what that means for a “ceiling”.

 

oh and as long as his ST keeps putting up 0.14 whatevers, of course. Can’t forget that. Big help. 

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People are too quick to dismiss players like McCorkle as having a low ceiling because they lack elite physical traits. But that really misses what having a QB who's an elite processor and student of the game can do for an offense. It lets the coaches keep expanding the playbook and adding new wrinkles to stay ahead of the competition, which means defenses can never fully be comfortable that they know your tendencies. Every coaching staff tries to do this on some level, but having a QB who can internalize schematic upgrades and shifts at a faster pace makes that synergy between coaches and players go a lot more smoothly. Look at the ways that the offenses for New England, Indy and New Orleans evolved while Brady, Manning and Brees were there. No opposing defense ever fully figured those offenses out for very long because those QBs were as cerebral as they were. Now compare that to the way the Rams offense stagnated with Jared Goff at QB, or the way the 49ers have struggled with consistency under Garoppolo. There's no question that both McVay and Shanahan are offensive masterminds, but their QBs simply haven't allowed them to adapt and evolve their schemes the way they'd like to ideally, and that's why both shopped for upgrades this past offseason. 

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13 minutes ago, Apparition said:

People are too quick to dismiss players like McCorkle as having a low ceiling because they lack elite physical traits

 

It's really  hard to count on someone developing hall of fame level mental processing and it's nearly impossible to know how someone is going to develop mentally. A guy who doesn't have Mac Jones' mental aptitude on the field right now could easily pass him in 2 years. We have no real way to measure or evaluate that. We know its not the Wonderlic. You can put them on the white board but that doesn't account for the bullets flying. I had this conversation during the draft lead up in the draft forum. When I'm evaluating a prospect you want to see that he has it upstairs, but trying to project anything mentally is really difficult. 

19 minutes ago, Apparition said:

But that really misses what having a QB who's an elite processor and student of the game can do for an offense. It lets the coaches keep expanding the playbook and adding new wrinkles to stay ahead of the competition, which means defenses can never fully be comfortable that they know your tendencies

Yes and no. If you lack the physical tools to consistently push the ball down the field or hit outside of the hashes, then it doesn't really matter what you can think up if your QB can't physically do it with consistency (that's not directed at Mac specifically, who interestingly enough has struggled more over the middle than outside of the hashmarks this year so far and has been a fairly average downfield thrower from what I understand, but I do have a lot of interest in what he looks like in these late months in areas where the wind may eat him up). Physical restrictions are important to consider because odds are, they aren't getting better. Mac Jones is not all that physically gifted in comparison to some other QBs. That's fine. On it's own, its not indicative of success or failure, comparatively speaking. But it can certainly lead to less margin for error. 

I mean, every player has a hall of fame level ceiling, just as every player ostensibly has a floor of being out of the league in 5 years. Its a lot less fun of a discussion in that regard, however lol. 

 

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34 minutes ago, Forge said:

 

It's really  hard to count on someone developing hall of fame level mental processing and it's nearly impossible to know how someone is going to develop mentally. A guy who doesn't have Mac Jones' mental aptitude on the field right now could easily pass him in 2 years. We have no real way to measure or evaluate that. We know its not the Wonderlic. You can put them on the white board but that doesn't account for the bullets flying. I had this conversation during the draft lead up in the draft forum. When I'm evaluating a prospect you want to see that he has it upstairs, but trying to project anything mentally is really difficult. 

Yes and no. If you lack the physical tools to consistently push the ball down the field or hit outside of the hashes, then it doesn't really matter what you can think up if your QB can't physically do it with consistency (that's not directed at Mac specifically, who interestingly enough has struggled more over the middle than outside of the hashmarks this year so far and has been a fairly average downfield thrower from what I understand, but I do have a lot of interest in what he looks like in these late months in areas where the wind may eat him up). Physical restrictions are important to consider because odds are, they aren't getting better. Mac Jones is not all that physically gifted in comparison to some other QBs. That's fine. On it's own, its not indicative of success or failure, comparatively speaking. But it can certainly lead to less margin for error. 

I mean, every player has a hall of fame level ceiling, just as every player ostensibly has a floor of being out of the league in 5 years. Its a lot less fun of a discussion in that regard, however lol. 

 

Obviously there's a baseline below which guys become non-viable. You're not going to be able to sustain success with a guy who throws like post-surgeries Chad Pennington or 2015 model Peyton Manning. But a guy with an "average" arm (and when I say "average", I mean the equivalent of a Philip Rivers or Drew Brees) and average legs but the equivalent of a $8000 gaming pc between his ears? Yeah, you can win with that if you've got a coaching staff that won't become complacent. As you said, you can't really predict a guy having elite processing based on pre-draft scouting, but there's no rational reason for people to still be questioning it with McCorkle based on what he's shown in game action this year.

And I say all this as a guy who was pounding the table for the Pats to draft Justin Fields and only hopped on the McCorkle bandwagon when the writing was on the wall that he was gonna be the day 1 starter. Everyone not only underestimated just how smart and poised he is, but how far that intelligence and poise will carry a guy with his physical tools. I still think that if the Bears get a coach who doesn't need help tying his shoes next year, and actually put an NFL-caliber offensive line in front of him Fields will develop into a top QB. But I also don't think having a fastball that tops out at 93 instead of 103 is going to keep McCorkle from winning Super Bowls (plural) because that coach-QB synergy that I talked about is going to keep him a move or two ahead of everyone else in the chess game. 

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I swear Mac has a photographic memory. Last year, before the season opener vs Miami, he met with the press and he was rattling off every name and number of the defenders and their tendencies like he was Rain Man. Not just simple memorization either but lightning fast like the info was always there to be spoken. The sky’s the limit for him if he can stay healthy. 

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I liked him more than most in the draft process and I had a feeling he would be good. I don’t think his ceiling is as lows as others think. I think his ceiling is Drew Brees-ish. His floor is obviously really high but I think he continues to improve. 
 

I still like the other rookies and think they can improve with their teams as well. Just a really good QB class. 

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On 12/4/2021 at 10:06 PM, SkippyX said:

He's been far better than expectations. (as a rookie)

People who are LOL'ing about those who strong opinions that he should not be a top 3 pick have a weird take on this.

IMO He'd be bad on the Jets or Jags and he'd be a mess or a backup in SF. (this year)

NE is perfect for him and he is doing well (for a rookie)

  • He's still the 14th rated and 17th ANY/A QB in a 32 team league.
  • He's 15th in yards per game and 21st in TD%
  • He's been excellent in INT% 15th (for a rookie) and sack % 17th (5.9 is also very good for a rookie)
  • 12th in yards per attempt is very good for a rookie.

 

I thought his ceiling may have been lower than it has been. That does not give him Matt Ryan's career (MVP in 2016) because he's leading the 7/14 offense.

  • Matt Ryan is 13th in regular season passer rating and 3rd in the playoffs.
  • He's 8th in career passing yards, 6th in passing yards per game, and 19th in career TDs  (He's still just 36)
  • Projecting Jones as another Matt Ryan is a bit like giving him a gold jacket after 12 games.

 

My reaction to Jones at 3 was "Hell No!" (fair?) The reaction to Jones at 15 and the Patriots was. "Its a bit high but its Saban to BB and he might be a fit in a very good situation" (also fair?). There is really nothing to LOL about in that.

We were all talking about draft prospects. Here is an example:

Nick Foles won a Super Bowl and had a 28 TD 2 pick season. He still should not have been taken by Philly in round 1 instead of Fletcher Cox.

  • The periods of success did not prove he should have been a 1st round QB

 

If Mac Jones' super power is that he is playing like a 3rd year guy as a rookie but his physical limitations will always be his limitations then he won't be all that special.

He could still be a decent to good starting QB with some very good years.

If his super power is that he is so smart and has such a great feel for the game and his teammates that he can elevate beyond his physical abilities then he could be great.

I don't know how you can tell the difference in 1 or 2 years.

 

 

Josh Allen was nowhere near as polished as a rookie (understatement) but he had Josh Allen 2020 in part because he has all the tools.

Jones never will have all those tools so it will be an uphill battle to do what those other guys can do.

Again, this is projecting and nitpicking decent, good, and elite. He's already proved there is a place for him as a starter in the league and I was not sure he would be.

 

Any use of the word Brady when talking about Jones is so insanely unfair to him that it just should not be done.

Brady was a will and training and study and skill and dedication without freak ability guy but he's also the best ever. You can't just say "Yeah, Jones is that too."

A+ post, particularly the bolded!

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