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BDL 2021 Quarterfinal Round - #8 Hungary Hippos @ #1 New Orleans Jazz


Whicker

Hungary Hippos @ New Orleans Jazz  

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  1. 1. Who Wins?

    • Hungary Hippos
    • New Orleans Jazz

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  • Poll closed on 12/16/2021 at 05:00 AM

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BDL 2021 Quarterfinals

Match:  Hungary Hippos @ New Orleans Jazz

Away Owner:      @PR

Home Owner:     @WFLukic

Vote for who you think would win the game.

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Good luck to you both

Edited by Whicker
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QB - Dak Prescott

RB - Joe Mixon

WR - DK Metcalf

WR - Tyler Lockett

WR - Darius Slayton

TE - Jonnu Smith

LT - Charles Leno

LG - Ali Marpet

C - Matt Skura

RG - Connor McGovern

RT - Eric Fisher

 

RB - James Robinson

RB - JaMycal Hasty

TE - Jonnu Smith

TE- Ian Thomas

OL - Andre Dillard

OL - John Simpson

 

DE - Emmanuel Ogbah

DT - Jonathan Allen

DT - Armon Watts

DE - Charles Harris

LB - Deion Jones

LB - Shaq Thompson

CB - Casey Hayward

FS - Harrison Smith

SS - Chuck Clark

NCB - AJ Bouye

CB - Amani Oruwariye

 

DE - Terrell Lewis

DE - Mario Addison

DT - Shelby Harris

DT - Solomon Thomas

LB - Josh Bynes

CB - Lonnie Johnson

CB - Desmond Trufant

S - Andrew Wingard

 

 

 

 

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: James Conner
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
WR2: D.J. Moore
Slot WR / OW: Deebo Samuel
TE: Mike Gesicki
LT: Terron Armstead
LG: Joel Bitonio
OC: Connor McGovern
RG: Brandon Scherff
RT: Taylor Decker

RB2: Melvin Gordon
RB3: Devin Singletary
RB4: Nyheim Hines
WR4: Cole Beasley
WR5: T.Y. Hilton
TE2: Jared Cook
OL6: Jonah Williams
OL7: Austin Corbett

 

Defense:

DE: Nick Bosa
DT: Christian Wilkins
DT: Jeffery Simmons
DE: Jadeveon Clowney
LB: Demario Davis
LB: Jordyn Brooks
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: J.C. Jackson
CB: James Bradberry
SS: Adrian Amos
FS: Micah Hyde

DE3: Jason Pierre-Paul
DE4: Randy Gregory
DT3: Grady Jarrett
DT4: Dre’Mont Jones
LB3: Cory Littleton
LB4: Foyesade Oluokun
DB6: DJ Reed
DB7: Darnell Savage

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Hungary:

Motivation: Hungary is back in the playoffs! It's time to play the dark horse. NOLA is a fearsome opponent but we believe we are up to the task.

 

Offense: Run Heavy

To beat NOLA it begins with ball control. We have to keep NOLAs offense off the field for as long as humanly possible. We will have two primary formations this week. (3 WR formation & 2TE formation) Whatever formation we start a drive in, we will end the drive in with the same personnel. We do not want the clock to stop by constantly flipping in and out personnel. Occasionally (very rarely) we will deploy a 6th lineman with Andre Dillard to add an extra blocker for the run game. This will appear in red zone opportunities.

To employ this strategy we will have to heavily utilize the run game. Mixon and Robinson are both bell cow backs that can handle a full drive by themselves. Thus they will alternate drives to keep them fresh. If one is more successful than the other we will lean on the more effective back. We want to gash NOLA on the outside of the formation as their interior is elite. Occasionally the TE will slide back into the Power I as well for an addition run blocker. 

The running backs will also show another look in the passing game from time to time by flexing out wide to see if NOLA is man or zone and if Zone look to take advantage of the flat route. If in Man we look to use the one-on-one advantage.

We will also be using Lockett in End-Around plays. We feel we have an advantage with his speed in the running game.

Dak will also have designed runs throughout the game to test if NOLA has a QB spy or if Dak will get decent yardage on the run.

The passing game:

With the running game outlined, how does the passing game play it's part? I want the short to medium routes. I'm not going to take the top off the defense. NOLA will probably expect that with my speedsters that I will try to take the top off the defense so we expect either one or both safeties back. This leaves the short to intermediate routes open. We want quick cuts across the formation. We want quick outs. We want to get the ball to our playmakers and let them make plays after the catch. We want to move the chains with our trio picking up yards in chunks. When in 2TE formations Thomas will come in as another big target to get the ball to underneath. 

With a heavy rushing game and getting chunks in the passing game we look to control the clock all game, and keep the score low.

 

Defense:

Cover-2 Shell

To continue the run the clock, keep the score low theme, we will deploy the Cover-2 Shell. This takes away the deep ball that Josh Allen loves by playing two safeties deep. We want Josh to go for the chunk yardage. We want Josh to hold onto the ball and try to run. We want every tick of that clock to go as quickly as possible.

Josh has struggled against Cover-2 looks all season especially against the Colts and Jaguars. It derails the meat and potatoes of their offense.

Coverage:

Hayward - Moore

Oruwariye - Hopkins

Bouye - 3WR

Trufant - 4WR

Johnson - 5WR

 If NOLA comes out with two orfewer receivers on offense Bynes will come onto the field as the third LBer. 

 

Cover 2 Details:

Smith and Clark deep with each taking a side of the field. We want to keep the play in front forcing NOLA to take small routes and take more time off the clock. Both Hayward and Oruwariye will play closer to the line to prevent the quick pass, though we will not jam the receiver at the line. Shaq will drop to the seam route in this look while Jones will have cover the mid. We trust both Shaq and Jones to be able to read and react to both the RB and QB.

The offensive lineman we look to target this week is Jonah Williams. He has given up 6 sacks on the season. Thus we will have Ogbah aline with him. Ogbah has the highest double team win percentage in the league and we will look to put pressure on Allen this week. Jon Allen, Watts and Harris will also be part of the four man rush that have tallied over 20 sacks between them. We want to force Allen into mistakes and errant balls. Oruwariye (tied for 4th in interceptions) looks to take advantage

 

 

 

Offense (55% pass 45% run):

-        We want to play a sensible and clean game here offensively. While Allen will pick and choose his moments going deep to either Hopkins or Moore, the offense will revolve around hitting Gesicki and Beasley in the short-intermediate game, getting the ball into the hands of Deebo and Moore allowing them to work their magic after the catch and utilising the power running ability of Conner, Gordon and Allen to pick up consistent chunks and extend drives. Time of possession will be the key as Hungary’s offense will be more boom or bust this week given the loss of their two safety valves on offense, so if we can limit the opportunities they have to boom, we’ll be able to keep the game on our terms and build a comfortable lead they can’t run down.

-        Hungary’s defense has come on well this year, with plenty of unheralded names playing a level above what we’ve come to be used to from them. So we will show it the full respect it deserves without forcing the issue.

-        With that said, we feel there are very few true difference makers on that side of the ball outside of Jon Allen and Harrison Smith, so trusting the ability of our offensive players and running a straightforward passing game will be the plan and trusting our execution rather than imagination.

-        The running game will be largely a power-running one with the focus on pushing up against an interior of Hungary’s which specialises as pass-rushers, and a second level of linebackers who are on the smaller side and thrive due to their speed rather than strength and ability to shed blocks. Conner and Gordon will get the bulk of the load, with Conner as the short yardage back while Hines will see the occasional 3rd down play and perhaps a couple of screens or swing passes as the case may call for it.

-        A big part of the run game will be specifically running behind our elite left side, Armstead and Bitonio, who are two of the best in the business and with the help of Scherff pulling, they’ll be able to push around Ogbah and the smaller linebackers at the second level for Hungary.

-        We want to put Hungary in a situation where they’ll have to commit heavier players to the LOS, and it’s here where we’ll be able to really squeeze them.

-        Once we’ve established the power run game with Conner and Gordon, Deebo will see more snaps at RB, with frequent motioning around the field to put extra pressure on the linebackers, and free up the middle for Gesicki, Moore and Beasley to work their magic across the middle.

-        Hopkins we suspect will draw coverage from Casey Heyward, a zone specialist. So our plan will be to have Hopkins just run the routes he runs best – fades and deep outs with Allen throwing to his back shoulder if there’s help over the top, or jump balls out in front of him if there’s no safety help. Given the playmakers we have around the field, we don’t see it essential to target Hopkins if he can draw double coverage and give us the numbers advantage elsewhere, but like I said, if he has zone specialist on him one-on-one, we’re playing that game.

-        Hungary generally opts for man coverage and we plan on reintroducing an old favourite of ours this season – pick plays for Samuel and Moore. When you’ve got two physical receivers who are experts after the catch and playing in traffic, there’s nothing that busts man and press coverage like pick plays. If Hungary commits to man, we’re going to throw a few of these in for either of them for sure.

-        If Hungary goes zone heavy, there’ll be an uptick in snaps for Beasley who’ll be given freedom to run the routes he’s comfortable with and take advantage of his ability to peel into small gaps and Allen’s arm strength to force it into tight windows. Gesicki will also be given the same privilege, though if he’s matched up with a corner we want to have him going a bit deeper away from safeties and getting into positions to box out and win jump balls.

-        Lastly, as earlier alluded to, given we’re in the playoffs we’re going to through caution into the wind and there’ll be a few designed runs and draws or pitch option plays for Allen. We suspect Hungary may try to flush Allen to the right, and to help ensure Allen is able to burn them that way, he’ll have his RB often line up to the left and we’ll throw in a few planned QB rushes to the left early with the option for Allen to toss once an edge-setting defender has been isolated. If Hungary wants to play the force Allen left game, we’ll be fully read for it and have a number of left side specific plays or play-action roll out plays faking a run left and Allen rolling out right escaping the sealing pressure. But Allen will also have the green light to tuck it and run if Hungary take away his first two options – we’d rather take small gains/neutral plays than huge losses or fumbles.

Defense:

-        Usual rotation on the defensive line with no player playing more than 70% of the snaps and no player less than 30%.

-        While we may be facing an understrength Hungary offense given the absences of both Thielen and Hockenson, we’re not going to take them lightly and are going to appropriately address the threat that their remaining playmakers pose.

-        Firstly, given Prescott’s strengths and the fact their underneath options have been ruled out, Hungary will have no choice but to try and beat us by getting Dak in play-action situations and rolling out of the pocket.

-        So first up, we’ve gone a bit heavier on the DL with Wilkins coming in for Jarrett and Clowney starting on the edge. We feel this immediately offers us a bit more starch against the run to limit Mixon or Robinson, while Bosa and especially Clowney, both excel at setting the edge and still being able to generate pressure while doing so. If we can keep Prescott in the pocket, that’s half our battle done as our defensive front is very good at generating pressure while Hungary will be reliant on plays which take longer to play out.

-        Jarrett will still ideally play over half the snaps, appearing on earlier downs with Simmons kicking to DE but predominantly on later downs as a rusher from a 0 or 1 tech position, occupying a double team in the middle of the field.

-        Clowney will also kick inside on later downs and we’ll see Gregory and JPP being introduced and moved around.

-        Gregory will also play a few snaps as a LEO of sorts where we look to rush five (in place of Jordyn Brooks) – with the goal of this stacked pressure being send the extra rush towards Leno or Fisher, who will be having a hard enough time as is with their primary assignment.

-        We will also be more aggressive than usual with blitzing and sending Davis, Brooks, Hyde or Amos downhill to get to Dak. Hungary brings a very vulnerable offensive line with a number of starters who are below BDL standard, so forcing the OL to constantly shuffle should result in our defense being able to generate pressures and hopefully errant throws or sacks for turnovers.
 

-        In terms of coverage, we will generally go with cover-2 man looks – we don’t want to be beaten deep by Lockett and Metcalf. That’s not to say we don’t respect Slayton and Smith who are competent players, but it’s clear the biggest threat is posed by the wideouts.   

-        Amos will generally play closer to the LOS while Hyde is deeper, however he will generally drop back the more likely it is to be a passing play.

-        Standard coverage assignments will be as follows:

Gilmore – Metcalf
J.C. Jackson - Lockett
Bradberry - Slayton
Davis – Smith
Brooks – Mixon / RB

-        In 4 WR sets, Reed comes in for Brooks as the 4th CB, while in 5 WR/5 pass-catcher sets, Savage will come in and Hyde will shift to the slot or take a TE/RB in coverage.

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So a couple things here.

I get the approach wanting to run the clock for Hungary. But the not changing personnel for a whole drive starts to become predictable and really limits some situational possibilities. Hungary wants to limit NOLA to the short passing game and NOLA wants to play the short passing game so both will be ready for each other. NOLA predicted Heyward would be on Hopkins but Hungary switched it up against him and assigned Amani. But Hopkins is running the whole tree if against Heyward so he would against a lesser corner anyway. I think Allen outplays Dak especially with the NOLA corner assignments. The Cover 2 shell Josh might have had some passing struggles with but he’s going to have some running room. I think Heyward limits Moore but too much other fire power on Nola. NOLA wins at home

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First and foremost I want to applaud @PR for the efforts he has put in this season to get to this point. 

Now, I think both teams did well in their gameplan but for me it came down to struggles. Dak has been struggling recently and that continued this week andnwhile I do think Hungary has a really good offense, so does Daks irl team. Therefore I think the struggles could occur here. Against the New Orleans defense, I think they do. But I still see it as a very close game.

21-17 New Orleans

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I do like the idea of playing keep away from the Jazz, but the Jazz are gearing up to shut down the run (more starch to be exact) and I think with NO's secondary, this is going to lead to tons and tons of stalled drives. Ultimately the talent on offense is going to get moving against a decent defense, and Hungary can't keep up. I liked both game plans a lot.

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I actually like Hungary's front four better than most but they um, completely ignored the run game defensively and is letting NO hit the underneath routes they wanted to.  The Theilan injury really hurts the Hungary O here with the New Orleans boundary corners.  The seahwak WR will still have some success but not enough imo

 

New Orleans 24-13

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I think Hungary had a good gameplan for the most part but New Orleans also gameplanned well and ultimately their team is more complete on defense. I think both offenses will have some success but ultimately New Orleans makes a few more stops and pulls out the win.

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