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The playoff picture


paul-mac

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2 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Allbright has said that Fangio is on a playoff mandate. Make the playoffs and he stays. If not, he’s gone.

 

 

This is a genuinely terrible way to run a football team btw (making the playoffs or not can be a really fine margin sometimes and have little bearing on whether he’s the right man the for the job) but it’s almost certain he’s gone if we fail to make it. 

Ordinarily, I agree this is a bad way to run a football team. That said, Fangio isn't Paton's hand-picked coach. He elected to stick with him and give him an upgrade at QB to see what could be done. Based on the totality of Fangio's time here, I would say that mandate makes a lot of sense. Paton wants to likely build the team in his image. A coach that hasn't had a winning record and can't make the playoffs needs to demonstrate that he can, otherwise, time to start fresh.

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1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

Ordinarily, I agree this is a bad way to run a football team. That said, Fangio isn't Paton's hand-picked coach. He elected to stick with him and give him an upgrade at QB to see what could be done. Based on the totality of Fangio's time here, I would say that mandate makes a lot of sense. Paton wants to likely build the team in his image. A coach that hasn't had a winning record and can't make the playoffs needs to demonstrate that he can, otherwise, time to start fresh.

I would argue the opposite. Paton wants to build a team in his own image and owes no loyalty to Vic. Given the fine margin that separates WC teams and those that just lose out, a mandate of “making the playoffs” seems rather arbitrary compared to taking the entire body of work and trajectory of the team under Vic into account. Make the decision one way or the other, playoffs be damned.

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1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I would argue the opposite. Paton wants to build a team in his own image and owes no loyalty to Vic. Given the fine margin that separates WC teams and those that just lose out, a mandate of “making the playoffs” seems rather arbitrary compared to taking the entire body of work and trajectory of the team under Vic into account. Make the decision one way or the other, playoffs be damned.

 

 

Agree with this.

 

The decision on whether or not to retain Vic should be forward looking. It's a simple question of whether Paton believes we are more likely to contend for super bowls with Fangio as the coach going forward, or someone else. Whether we make the playoffs or not this season is a factor in that, particularly if we end up making it comfortably or missing out by a long way, but reducing it to a simple "playoffs or fired" is missing the crux of the issue.

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2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Ordinarily, I agree this is a bad way to run a football team. That said, Fangio isn't Paton's hand-picked coach. He elected to stick with him and give him an upgrade at QB to see what could be done. Based on the totality of Fangio's time here, I would say that mandate makes a lot of sense. Paton wants to likely build the team in his image. A coach that hasn't had a winning record and can't make the playoffs needs to demonstrate that he can, otherwise, time to start fresh.

 

52 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I would argue the opposite. Paton wants to build a team in his own image and owes no loyalty to Vic. Given the fine margin that separates WC teams and those that just lose out, a mandate of “making the playoffs” seems rather arbitrary compared to taking the entire body of work and trajectory of the team under Vic into account. Make the decision one way or the other, playoffs be damned.

IMO making / missing the playoffs is just PR cover.  As both of you have alluded to - Fangio isn’t Paton’s hire.  That’s probably the most important factor.  
 

There’s no doubt if Paton moved on that Fangio would get hired by another team as a DC.   It’s more about whether Paton thinks the team can take the next step under Fangio.  
 

If we miss the playoffs according to Allbright it’s moot Fangio is a goner.  Playoffs need a 3-1 finish and Cincy / LAC as part of that for the tiebreakers.   But the reality is Fangio not being Paton’s guy is already influencing the decision.  

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8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

IMO making / missing the playoffs is just PR cover.  As both of you have alluded to - Fangio isn’t Paton’s hire.  That’s probably the most important factor.  
 

There’s no doubt if Paton moved on that Fangio would get hired by another team as a DC.   It’s more about whether Paton thinks the team can take the next step under Fangio.  
 

If we miss the playoffs according to Allbright it’s moot Fangio is a goner.  Playoffs need a 3-1 finish and Cincy / LAC as part of that for the tiebreakers.   But the reality is Fangio not being Paton’s guy is already influencing the decision.  

 

Fangio is definitely gone if we miss the playoffs but the bigger question is what happens if we sneak in as the 6th/7th seed and then get smoked on the road in Baltimore/KC/Foxboro.

 

I don't think Paton should feel the need to retain Fangio even if we do sneak the WC. For me the only we he keeps his job is either:

 

- We emphatically go 4-0 and march into the playoffs.

- We sneak in but then go on a run in January and beat some great teams on the road. Like AFCCG minimum.

 

I think it's probably 20/80 that we make the playoffs at all but like 10/90 that Fangio is back. So even if we do make the playoffs there's still a 50-50 chance of a firing IMO, much like what happened a few years back with Mike Mullarkey in Tennessee.

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8 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

Fangio is definitely gone if we miss the playoffs but the bigger question is what happens if we sneak in as the 6th/7th seed and then get smoked on the road in Baltimore/KC/Foxboro.

 

I don't think Paton should feel the need to retain Fangio even if we do sneak the WC. For me the only we he keeps his job is either:

 

- We emphatically go 4-0 and march into the playoffs.

- We sneak in but then go on a run in January and beat some great teams on the road. Like AFCCG minimum.

 

I think it's probably 20/80 that we make the playoffs at all but like 10/90 that Fangio is back. So even if we do make the playoffs there's still a 50-50 chance of a firing IMO, much like what happened a few years back with Mike Mullarkey in Tennessee.

I agree - while we don't have the same QB situation, your scenario would be a John Fox-like scenario - a HC who brought the team to his highest point.   But who can't get more.  As much as Fangio is an elite DC, IMO his deficiencies cap the team's output.  

As others mentioned, distilling the concept of whether Fangio can bring us further to where we want to be to "make/miss playoffs" really misses the big picture point.   It certainly led to Fox's demise, because of Elway's belief that Fox couldn't bring the team further.   I suspect Paton's decision is going to come down to that, first and foremost, no matter the final team outcome (obviously a deep playoff run, as improbable as it would be, would likely reinforce the opposite view).

The playoffs line, though - I think it's to simplify the message.   The actual reasoning / thought process is likely way more nuanced (I hope lol).

Edited by Broncofan
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32 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

I felt dirty rooting for the Chiefs but that TNF result is a favourable one for Denver.

 

Win on Sunday and we’ll join the Chargers at 8-6

Clearly, if LA won, Denver needed an imperative 4-0 finish to have any chance of being in PO.
Now the 3-1 remains possible provided a victory in LA, the tiebreak would be favorable.

Also with the number of covid cases it seems that Cleveland is not in good shape this week.

In the end, the next 3 matches will determine the chances of PO. 1 Defeat and it's over.

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On 12/13/2021 at 5:50 PM, bMiller031 said:

Realistically need 3 of the next 4 and, the way the schedule and H2Hs shake out (not tiebreaker but we do need to hurdle LAC/CIN), we probably need to go 3-0 the next three weeks. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo <- Cool tool to visualize how different W/L scenarios impact playoff likelihood. 

We will need to hurdle two of LAC, BUF, IND, CIN/CLE/BAL (AFCN #2).  We have a 22% chance now - 5% with a loss and 34% with a win.  Going 2-0 puts us at 49% and 3-0 gets us to 91% heading into week 18 against KC.  Any loss in the next 3 means we need the KC game.

Edited by bMiller031
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20 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo <- Cool tool to visualize how different W/L scenarios impact playoff likelihood. 

We will need to hurdle two of LAC, BUF, IND, CIN/CLE/BAL (AFCN #2).  We have a 22% chance now - 5% with a loss and 34% with a win.  Going 2-0 puts us at 49% and 3-0 gets us to 91% heading into week 18 against KC.  Any loss in the next 3 means we need the KC game.

The most concerning is to jump Buffalo et Indianapolis.

Final season game Jets for Bills and Jags for Colts.

Even 4-0 this is not a sure thing .

Loss against Cincinnati we are Out. Or Loss against Chargers we are OUT.

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33 minutes ago, French Fan said:

The most concerning is to jump Buffalo et Indianapolis.

Final season game Jets for Bills and Jags for Colts.

Even 4-0 this is not a sure thing .

Loss against Cincinnati we are Out. Or Loss against Chargers we are OUT.

I think our most likely path is going 3-0 and jumping LAC and CIN/CLE. 

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11 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I felt dirty rooting for the Chiefs but that TNF result is a favourable one for Denver.

 

Win on Sunday and we’ll join the Chargers at 8-6

 

10 hours ago, French Fan said:

Clearly, if LA won, Denver needed an imperative 4-0 finish to have any chance of being in PO.
Now the 3-1 remains possible provided a victory in LA, the tiebreak would be favorable.

Also with the number of covid cases it seems that Cleveland is not in good shape this week.

In the end, the next 3 matches will determine the chances of PO. 1 Defeat and it's over.

 

5 hours ago, bMiller031 said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo <- Cool tool to visualize how different W/L scenarios impact playoff likelihood. 

We will need to hurdle two of LAC, BUF, IND, CIN/CLE/BAL (AFCN #2).  We have a 22% chance now - 5% with a loss and 34% with a win.  Going 2-0 puts us at 49% and 3-0 gets us to 91% heading into week 18 against KC.  Any loss in the next 3 means we need the KC game.


Realistically, we lose the CIN or LAC game, the tiebreakers are just so far against us when you look at common opponents.  We win vs. CIN & LAC, 3-1 gets a chance.   

 

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20 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Obviously we wanted IND to lose but KC pulling away in the #1 spot may bode well for us in week 18

It depends on TEN - they own the tiebreaker (as they have only 3 AFC losses, KC has 4), and keep it so long as they win vs. PIT and MIA, then KC is playing full-out on Week 18, at least until the outcome of TEN's game is clear (the SF game is almost meaningless from a "make KC play Week 18 perspective, although obv it affects who is in the driver's seat).  And the NFL will have all the key games playing at the same time.

So if TEN beats both PIT & MIA, KC's week 18 game is meaningful either chasing TEN or holding them off for the #1 seed.   Of course, it doesn't matter if we don't beat CIN today.

Edited by Broncofan
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