BDL 2021 Semi-Final Round - #7 Berlin Blitzkrieg @ #1 New Orleans Jazz

[Whicker]

BDL 2021 Semifinals

Match:  Berlin Bltizkrieg @ New Orleans Jazz

Away Owner:      @Ragnarok

Home Owner:      @WFLukic

Vote for who you think would win the game.

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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[Whicker]

Offense
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Aaron Jones
WR - Odell Beckham
WR - Marquise Brown
Slot/TE - Dallas Goedert
TE - Hunter Henry
LT - Kolton Miller
LG - James Daniels
C - Corey Linsley
RG - Alex Cappa
RT - Tristan Wirfs

RB - Michael Carter
RB - D’Onta Foreman
RB - Kenneth Gainwell
WR - Brandon Aiyuk
WR - Marquez Valdez-Scantling
IOL - Royce Newman

Defense
DE - Trey Hendrickson
DT - Quinnen Williams
DT - Greg Gaines
DE - Demarcus Lawrence
LB - Tremaine Edmunds
LB - Baron Browning
LB - Kyzir White
CB - Eric Stokes
CB - Byron Murphy
S - Antoine Winfield
S - Juan Thornhill

DE - Trevis Gipson
DE - DJ Wonnum
DT - Zach Sieler
DT - Kingsley Keke
CB - Ahkello Witherspoon
CB - Nik Needham
CB - DeAndre Baker
S - Camryn Bynum

 

 

 

 

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Deebo Samuel
WR1: D.J. Moore
WR2: T.Y. Hilton
Slot WR: Cole Beasley
TE: Mike Gesicki
LT: Taylor Decker
LG: Joel Bitonio
OC: Connor McGovern
RG: Brandon Scherff
RT: Jonah Williams

RB2: Melvin Gordon
RB3: James Conner
RB4: Devin Singletary
RB5/WR5: Nyheim Hines
WR4: Zach Pascal
TE2: Jared Cook
OL6: Cam Robinson
OL7: Austin Corbett

Defense:

DE: Nick Bosa
DT: Christian Wilkins
DT: Grady Jarrett
DE: Jeffery Simmons
LB: Demario Davis
LB/S: Adrian Amos
Slot CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: J.C. Jackson
CB: James Bradberry
SS: Micah Hyde
FS: Darnell Savage

DE3: Randy Gregory
DE4: Jason Pierre-Paul
DT3: Star Lotulelei
DT4: Bravvion Roy
LB3: Jordyn Brooks
LB4: Foyesade Oluokun
DB6: D.J. Reed
DB7: Terrell Edmunds

[Whicker]

This is the third year in a row we have made it to the BDL Semi-Finals.  We’ve lost the last 2 as the #1 seed.  Now we take on the #1 seed as we look to avenge our loss to NOLA earlier this year and get to the Final for the first time ever.

Offense
Overview - Unleash Rodgers, attack NOLA vertically, isolate their second level in coverage, have the run game supplement the passing attack.

Offensive Line - Our OL has allowed 9 total sacks all season.  NOLA has two very good pass rushers in Bosa and Simmons, but we are going to trust our guys to keep Rodgers upright as we have all season.

Passing Game - Last week, we went with a conservative passing strategy.  Even without Hopkins, we have to come out with a more aggressive strategy to win.  We are going to have a check down option or two, but we will scheme more chunk plays this week.  The goal is to stress the NOLA defense vertically and force them to play catch up.

Last week, we also went with a slower tempo.  This week, we will trust Rodgers to fluctuate the tempo as he sees fit.  If he wants to slow it down and move the slot from one side to the other and flip the play, we are fine with that.  If he wants to get to the line and go faster, we are fine with that as well.  We want to 1. keep the NOLA DL off balance and 2. let Rodgers attempt to catch them with an extra guy on the field for a couple free shots downfield.

OBJ and Brown get the start as they both have the ability to win underneath and take the top off the defense.  Typically, one WR will run deep and the other will run an intermediate route.  In particular, we want to allow Rodgers the opportunity to throw a number of sideline back shoulder throws that he excels at.

We will also use Goedert to stress NOLA vertically.  We want to give him option routes where he can push up the seam if Cover 2 or break outside if Cover 1.  Look for a number of passing plays where we have all three running vertical routes, OBJ and Brown on the sides with Goedert down the middle, as this should provide opportunities deep for one of them.  NOLA has some good LBers and safeties, but Goedert will get a lot of targets.

Henry will be more of a security blanket running more out routes, curls, and in routes to provider Rodgers with an underneath option.  However, we will have him run the same option route as Goedert on occasion with Goedert providing the underneath support.  We like the matchup he will get in coverage.

We will also feature our RBs heavily in the passing game to supplement our rushing attack.  Look for a number of screens, flares, and RB option routes that keep the pass rush honest.  We will also split out our RB on occasion to isolate a LB in coverage.

All the above said, we will have a number of pass combinations where both WRs run underneath routes while both TEs push deep and the RB follows with a wheel route down the sideline.  Or both WRs push deep with both TEs attacking the intermediate and the RB as a check down.  While we will have tendencies, we feel that all our weapons can work both short and deep effectively, so we will mix it up to keep their defense off balance.

Also this week we will incorporate a couple double screens with a fake screen to Jones on one side and come back to Goedert on the other side or vice verse.

Run Game - As stated earlier, our run game will supplement our passing attack.  We are going to give Jones a good 15-20 touches if possible, but we will sub in Carter, Gainwell, and Foreman depending on the situation with Carter getting the majority of the sub reps.  We will run inside and outside, but we want runs that allow our backs to pick and choose which gap to hit.  Look for stretches, draws, counters...runs of that nature.  At the start of the game, we want to run enough to keep the defense honest, but as the game goes on, we will try to find a more balanced attack to eat up some clock if we are ahead.

Formations
The above strategies will hold true regardless of formation, but we will utilize different personnel grouping through the game.

2 TE - 50% - Davis is a very good linebacker, but we really like the match ups against the linebackers and safeties other than him that our tight ends and running backs will have.  And we feel that the further downfield Davis has to cover, the less effective he will be.  So whoever he has in coverage will typically push down field.  We will line up Goedert in the slot a lot as this will allow him an easier release in this set for his option route.  Henry will be typically lined up in the formation to assist in the run game and chip an edge rusher, usually Bosa, before releasing into his pass route.

Our WRs will attack NOLA as described above, but if NOLA does their Standard Coverage Assignments, then we will rotate out the WR that has Jackson assigned to him and bring in Aiyuk.  Jackson is playing at a very high level this year, so if we can get him off the field by switching out OBJ or Brown, we will do so.  After getting his head out of his ***, Aiyuk has been very good this year, so we have no issues bringing him on the field.  If NOLA doesn’t do this, then OBJ and Brown will be the 2 WRs in this set and we won’t shy away from Jackson.

Look for a number of stretch plays here that allow us to build play action passing off of it to attack down field.  We will run these both to the Henry side and the Goedert side with Goedert blocking down on the linebacker from the slot.  We will utilize the RB on draws, counters, screens, and flares as well, but we feel the stretch will be most effective here.

2 RB - 15% - We are bringing out a new formation this week to attack the 2nd level of NOLA’s defense.  Jones and Carter will be at RB with Goedert at TE.  OBJ and Brown will be at WR unless Jackson is assigned to one of them in which case Aiyuk would be on the field.

Goedert would again play from the slot and be used more to attack downfield.  He would almost exclusively run his option route with the ability to break inside or out depending on the safety look in front of him.

Jones and Carter have both shown the ability to run, catch, and block.  In this formation we will typically put one in motion to the Goedert side to get into trips.  This will allow for quick screens to the RB with blockers out front as well as rub routes to get someone open quickly.  The solo-WR side will run a deep route to see if he can get single coverage.

The remaining RB will stay in the backfield and help chip before releasing into a check down option.  We will run the remaining RB a few times to keep the defense honest.

3 WR - 15% - Marquise, Aiyuk, OBJ, and Goedert with Jones.  We will use a lot of jet motion from the set with all 3 WRs getting a chance at running such motion.  Each will probably get a chance of a jet sweep or two to see if they can get the edge.  We will run counters and stretches away from this motion to try and get the linebackers moving one direction with the play going another.

We will throw to the WR going in jet motion as getting all the way across is difficult for any DB.  Our other weapons will run routes as described in our passing game section.

4 WR - 20% - Marquise, Aiyuk, OBJ, and MVS with Rodgers in shotgun and Jones next to him.

This will be 100% Rodgers backyard do-what-he-does-best football.  Get to the line quick, let Rodgers hard count, see if someone jumps, put someone in motion, hard count again, see if someone jumps, let him read and react.  Obviously Linsley snaps if someone jumps.  MVS and OBJ are outside and will typically run deeper routes while one of Brown and Aiyuk works intermediate and one works shallow.  Rodgers will see if someone comes open quickly and if not, look to move around to keep the play alive.

Jones will be used on a couple standard handoffs, but more draws to try and suck up the pass rush before letting him find a hole.  He will also be used as the other check down through screens, flares, and RB option routes.

Defense
Overview - Keep Allen in the pocket, don’t let Moore beat us deep, double Deebo, make them beat us elsewhere.

Defensive Line - With Armstead out, we think our DEs will have a distinctive advantage on the edges.  We want them to keep contain on their way to Allen as we have to keep him in the pocket.  If he beats us from there, so be it.  With Brown out, the newly added Greg Gaines steps into out starting NT role.  We will rotate at DT to keep those interior guys fresh, but Hendrickson and DLaw will play as many snaps as possible.

Run Game - We will have Winfield up near the LOS to help limit the run game.  Browning gets the start over White this week in 3 WR sets as he provides more size without sacrificing athleticism.  Between Winfield, Browning, and Tremaine on the second level behind our DL, we feel confident we can limit NOLA’s run game whether it comes from the RB or Josh Allen.

Man Coverage
Linebackers - Browning will have the RB in coverage.  Tremaine gets Gesicki.  If they go with a 2 TE or 2 RB set, White comes in for our 3rd corner and takes the 2nd TE or RB.  With the injuries at WR, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a little more 2 TE and 2 RB sets from NOLA this week.

Corners - Byron has Deebo everywhere that Deebo goes.  Byron covered Deebo a lot in their 2nd match up and helped keep him in check.  Stokes has DJ Moore everywhere as we want his speed limiting Moore.  If they use Beasley as their 3rd WR, Needham will have him.  If they use Hilton, Witherspoon will have him.

Safety - Thornhill is going to be sitting deep middle to provide support over the top as Moore is their main deep threat with no Hopkins.  We want to limit their explosive plays as that is what Allen does best.  Thornhill will be sitting on the hash to Moore’s side.

Winfield is going to be up near the LOS and move all over.  Deebo does his most damage lining up closer to the formation, so this will play to our benefit as it will allow Winfield to start out closer to the QB.  He is either going to bracket Deebo to the inside or stay in an intermediate zone that spies Josh Allen.  If Allen looks to not be 100% on that ankle, he will double Deebo more frequently as the threat of the QB run is lessened.

Zone Coverage
We will incorporate about 40% zone coverage as it will allow us to have eyes on Allen and the backfield.  We are going to use more Cover 2 this week with Winfield again playing close to the LOS before dropping back to the deep half away from Moore’s side so Thornhill can stay over the top of Moore.  This will allow our CBs to be a bit more aggressive with the WRs knowing they have help over the top while keeping eyes on the backfield to limit Allen’s running.

 

 

 

 

Motivation:

We’re banged up. Every team is. But we’re prepared for this – we’ve had the next man up mentality all year and you don’t win 11 games in the regular season without the whole team stepping up. Now it’s the bizz-bowl semi-finals. We’ve been here before – this is our fourth trip in five years. We know what it’s like to be here and we know what it’s like to win here. Berlin fell at this hurdle last year and the pressure is on them to show they can get over the hump. They’re coming off an intense battle in Anchorage that went down to the wire and now need to travel all the way to the Deep South of Louisiana, while we’re coming off a comfortable win and are fully focused, locked in and emotionally ready prepared for this. They ended our season last year, and this season, we proved we can beat them. Now it’s time to get our revenge for good in front of a raucous crowd in the Superdome.

Offense (60% pass, 40% run):

-        In the past few weeks we’ve leaned on a power run game and grinding the ball up field with our power backs, but this week we want to ride Josh Allen more than anything else. Allen is one of the best football players in the league and in the BDL he’s shown he can rise to the biggest occasion and deliver so we’re going to trust him to do so here. Despite picking up an injury last week, he still ran for over 100 yards and has managed to come into this match logging a good week of practice and no injury designation so he's ready to go.

-        We’re going to go with plenty of hurry up and no huddle, choosing to take advantage of our versatility in moving pieces around the field. On top of this, we’ve identified the loss of Derrick Brown as crucial for Berlin – he’s the cornerstone of that defensive line and with his loss, it immediately brings into question the depth on that line and we know with a high intensity, fast paced offense, Berlin’s defensive front will tire and there’s going to be some substitutions forcing guys that can be taken advantage of. On top of that, with Berlin being down to reserve cornerbacks, the more time we can keep them isolated on the field and unable to regroup in the huddle, the better chances we’ve got to move the ball as Allen’s ad-lib ability and the ability of guys like Moore, Beasley and Gesicki to find soft spots will keep the chains moving. 

-        In terms of personnel, we’re going to go with one surprising change to our offensive line-up and that is moving Deebo Samuel to feature heavily at running back, despite the loss of Hopkins on the outside. Samuel has shown he can be every bit the star running back as he is receiver, but also feeds into that no huddle offense as while he’ll get 10-15 or so carries, he’s going to be splitting outside often and taking a linebacker or safety out with him. Even when he is lined up in the backfield though, we plan to get him a number of catches on angle or flat routes in a way manner similar to how the Bills use the short passing game as a replacement for the running game.

-        If Berlin go extra light, in potentially 6 or 7 DB sets, we’re going to ramp up the option plays with Allen and Samuel in the backfield. We obviously don’t want Allen to get any more dinged up running at LBs and between the tackles necessarily, but 6’5 240 Allen against a 5’11 190 CB? Yeah he’s truckin.

-        The whole offense obviously won’t be no huddle though and the rotation of Conner and Gordon will some snaps. Conner will primarily be used as a short-yardage and 3^rd down back with Samuel moving out to receiver on such plays, with his blocking and receiving ability being essential. Gordon will generally spell Samuel at RB, with his usual one-cut and downhill style. Hines will also see a few snaps, in particular in 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE situations with Samuel and Hines in the backfield allowing for some trickery, be it on double tosses, wildcat type looks or sweeps.

-        In the passing game, we’ve got two players we want to go after on that Berlin team. They are Tremaine Edmunds, who despite making a few flashy run stops, shows consistent vulnerability against the pass. The other is whoever is Berlin’s CB3 with the absence of Kendall Fuller – either DeAndre Baker or Nik Needham, both being part time players who shouldn’t be seeing the field with any regularity in the BDL. So the two matchups we want in particular are Edmunds on Samuel and Beasley on either of Needham or Baker. Whenever we get one of these, it will be Allen’s quick read and the ball will most likely be heading in that direction.

-        Moore and Hilton will line up on the outside. T.Y. Hilton isn’t the receiver he was yesteryear, but he’s still good for a couple of catches a game and he still has the ability to stretch the field. So he will work in that capacity, and draw coverage from one of Murphy or Stokes on the outside.

-        Moore will operate as the no.1 and will be given the full route tree to run, in which we’ll have full confidence in Allen targeting him in one on one coverage. If he gets doubled, we’re then looking for Gesicki through the middle or the RBs out of the backfield/Samuel if split wide.

-        Knowing our opponent well from our match earlier this year, as well as observing trends in defenses we’ve played of late, we predict Berlin are going to bring two strategies to the table. One will be cover 2 and trying to get pressure with 4 rushers, the other will be sending pressure specifically down the right side of the line to flush Allen left.

-        To counter the cover 2 if Berlin opts to lean on it heavily, will be a heavy dose of Gesicki and Beasley. Both work their best against softer coverage and finessing into gaps, and Allen’s rocket arm should be able to squeeze it into the windows before defenders are able to make plays on the ball once the soft spots have been found. In addition to this, swing passes or tosses to Deebo and letting him get on the move against defensive backs who have fallen back from the line of scrimmage will also be fruitful as his ability to run the ball in hand is as good as any player in the league right now.

-        In terms of flushing Allen left, Allen will have audibles ready to flip plays. If it looks as though Berlin are planning a stunt or to load up the left, we’ll flip a play that appears heavier on the right if necessary to make it personnel heavier on the left (i.e. 2 WRs and TE on the left), giving Allen a quicker outlet if he needs to shuffle left.

-        However the biggest counter we have for this will be running an early couple of screens where Berlin plan this. On these plays, Deebo will be to Allen’s right in the shotgun, the offensive line on the right will kick out after the snap and Allen will take a step or two left before flipping it over the oncoming rushers and hopefully finding Deebo who’s behind the OL and able to run in open space.

-        We’re also running one specific trick play are going to call it the “Friday Fakeout” as tribute to Tiny ‘Deebo’ Lister who passed just over a year ago.

-        In this play (see diagram - black being the first half of the play, red the second half), we’re preparing for pressure to be brought from Allen’s right. So we’re going to toss it to Deebo on the left, while Allen backs off to the right. Deebo will then flip it over to Allen (backwards pass) and then Allen will launch it deep to DJ Pooh (DJ Moore). Tuddy guaranteed. 

Defense:

-        Facing an Aaron Rodgers lead offense is always a difficult proposition, given he’s one of the greatest of all time, but we are confident with the talent we have available on defense from the DL to secondary, we’ll be able to slowdown the Berlin offense enough to get a victory.

-        Our first objective is to limit the effectiveness Berlin will have at moving the ball in the air this week. Every single Berlin wide receiver is coming into this matchup with question marks over their health, yet both tight ends are coming healthy. Berlin have also leaned on Rodgers ability to quickly get passes out to his underneath targets and the tight-ends figure to form a large part of that attack given the inconsistency of Aiyuk and Brown on the outside, the likely starters.

-        As Goedert has often lined up in the slot as a receiver, we will shadow him with Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has proven he can effectively erase a TE from the opponents offense (Kelce in years prior, Pitts this year) so we feel he should be able to largely limit what impact Goedert will have on the game.

-        Similarly, we’re going to be putting Micah Hyde on Hunter Henry. Henry also poses a threat in the intermediate game, but Hyde has the physicality and coverage chops to match it with him for a large number of snaps.

-        Should Berlin look to move Goedert inside more and play a heavier ground game, we’ll swap out a CB or Savage (with Hyde moving to FS in this case) and Brooks to LB near the LOS.

-        We’re assuming Brown and Aiyuk will be starting on the outside, but it could very well be Odell Beckham in for either of them. In any case, we’ll commence with J.C. Jackson taking Brown and James Bradberry taking Aiyuk. Ultimately, we feel pretty comfortable with any combination of CBs and WRs in this match-up.

-        Aaron Jones comes into this matchup with his workload reducing by the week, a lingering knee injury and now an illness. While he’s a quality RB, and a threat as a receiver too, we don’t see him nor any other back on the Berlin posing a threat as a workhorse up the middle. This is why we feel at ease with going lighter on the backend than usual, knowing that we won’t be punished on the ground with a bruising run game.

-        Davis and Amos will hang closer to the DL and will alternate on running back coverage duty while the other drops back and sits in the middle of the field to help with crossers, react on the underneath passing/screen game or rarely blitz. Savage will operate as our deep safety, leaning more towards Brown’s side given his gamebreaking speed.

-        We are also going heavier than usual on the defensive front, with Jeffery Simmons slotting in at defensive end for early downs. While this will give us more STARCH against the run and help us with gap control, we’ve also done this because of Berlin’s confidence in Tristan Wirfs holding up 1 on 1 at tackle. He’s an excellent tackle, no denying that, but Simmons is a man who commands a double team. We’re going to have him bullrush, move inside on stunts and do all he can to give Wirfs a difficult time if he’s going to be left one on one. In any case, given the dominance of both Bosa and Simmons this year, one of them will be benefitting from a one-on-one match up and whoever it is, we fully expect to feast. Simmons will also rotate this LDE spot with Grady Jarrett with one of the nose tackles (mainly Lotulelei) coming in at NT.

-        We also recognise that Rodgers is battling a toe injury and won’t be his nimble self. So while we don’t want to overcommit in a numbers regard through excessive blitzing or lining up with 5 rushers, we’re going to try and combine our strengths in man coverage on the outside with the BDL favourite NASCAR pass-rush specific defensive alignment to collapse the OL on Rodgers. This will feature a line-up of Bosa-JPP-Simmons/Jarrett-Gregory, with the aim of trying to get to Rodgers and generate sacks by taking advantage of his tendency to hold onto the ball rather than risk a pick.

-        Beyond that it will be our bread and butter cover-1 look and we'll adjust based on how heavy/light Berlin come out. We don’t want to jeopardise things by changing it up too much defensively at this point in the season – we have an exceptional corner trio, some talented safeties, an anchor in Davis at LB and some dominant players up front – lets play the matchups, execute and bring ourselves back to the bizzbowl.

[Scoundrel]

[Jlash]

Is this the record for most combined words in two game plans? I'll need til wednesday night just to get through these two.

[VigilantZombie]

57 minutes ago, Jlash said:

Is this the record for most combined words in two game plans? I'll need til wednesday night just to get through these two.

Yeah those are long reads haha.

[WFLukic]

Antoine Winfield ruled out. D.J. Reed presumably out for the Hawks as he was added to the covid-19 list and as far as I'm aware, can't be re-activated before then. Quinnen Williams also re-aggravated a shoulder injury and left mid-game against the Dolphins.

[Ragnarok]

22 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Antoine Winfield ruled out. D.J. Reed presumably out for the Hawks as he was added to the covid-19 list and as far as I'm aware, can't be re-activated before then. Quinnen Williams also re-aggravated a shoulder injury and left mid-game against the Dolphins.

Thought Winfield was gonna make it back.  Needham will play safety in his place.  So against the Deebo backfield, Byron is in slot, Witherspoon outside, and Needham is up as SS taking the RB with Baron.  

Quinnen left late in the third quarter or early in the 4th.  Dunno if he reaggravated anything or not.  But he came back in the game last week when he hurt the shoulder and practiced.

[MD4L]

3 hours ago, Jlash said:

Is this the record for most combined words in two game plans? I'll need til wednesday night just to get through these two.

As they should. I see no issue.

[Jlash]

1 minute ago, MD4L said:

As they should. I see no issue.

Who posed it as an issue?

[Ragnarok]

Scherff went on the COVID list today, so unlikely to play.

[Scoundrel]

9 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

Scherff went on the COVID list today, so unlikely to play.

That’s the nature of the beast. You got lucky the Chargers played on Thursday and not today or tomorrow with Linsely going on it today also. 

[Ragnarok]

4 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

That’s the nature of the beast. You got lucky the Chargers played on Thursday and not today or tomorrow with Linsely going on it today also. 

Yuuuup

[WFLukic]

Corbett steps in at this stage unless he's also ruled out in the next day lol. Guess it kinda evens up Brown being ruled out with it too. God will probably take Bitonio out just before the game to even up the Williams injury lol.

[Ragnarok]

5 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Corbett steps in at this stage unless he's also ruled out in the next day lol. Guess it kinda evens up Brown being ruled out with it too. God will probably take Bitonio out just before the game to even up the Williams injury lol.

Not sure what needs to be 'evened out' about Quinnen.  Dude played last week, practiced, played this week, and left at the end of the 3rd with an injury.  He is 100% available for me.

But yeah, im expecting to lose at least one more player before these games are played.