BDL 2021 Semi-Final Round - #7 Berlin Blitzkrieg @ #1 New Orleans Jazz

[Scoundrel]

On 12/19/2021 at 11:26 AM, Whicker said:

-        In the passing game, we’ve got two players we want to go after on that Berlin team. They are Tremaine Edmunds, who despite making a few flashy run stops, shows consistent vulnerability against the pass. The other is whoever is Berlin’s CB3 with the absence of Kendall Fuller – either DeAndre Baker or Nik Needham, both being part time players who shouldn’t be seeing the field with any regularity in the BDL. So the two matchups we want in particular are Edmunds on Samuel and Beasley on either of Needham or Baker.

While I do think Gesicki on Edmunds is a win for NOLA you’re hoping for Edmunds on Samuel and doesn’t look like you’re getting that matchup. I’m not too worried about Beasley against those corners he hasn’t been lighting it up this season from the slot. Not a huge difference maker here imo.

[Scoundrel]

On 12/19/2021 at 11:26 AM, Whicker said:

Knowing our opponent well from our match earlier this year, as well as observing trends in defenses we’ve played of late, we predict Berlin are going to bring two strategies to the table. One will be cover 2 and trying to get pressure with 4 rushers, the other will be sending pressure specifically down the right side of the line to flush Allen left.

Called one of these missed on the other

[Scoundrel]

On 12/19/2021 at 11:26 AM, Whicker said:

As Goedert has often lined up in the slot as a receiver, we will shadow him with Stephon Gilmore.

This is a fun matchup

[Scoundrel]

I have to agree with Rags on the Simmons at edge though. Like Deebo I like getting the 10-15 carries at RB because he has shown he can do it. Simmons has never played 4-3 edge and then he is going up against arguably the best RT in football. It’s like me putting David Andrews at T against Nick Bosa. It’s still on the line and Andrews might win some reps but he is losing most of the game. Might be a little easier for Simmons to transition to that role than Andrews to Tackle but the point is he hasn’t shown he can do it and then against Wirfs especially when Berlin is looking to air it out. Not ideal in my opinion. 

[Scoundrel]

A great matchup overall. Some strengths and weaknesses for both teams/gameplans I am still mulling over. I have an idea of where I’m going but still want to think on some things. I’ll vote tomorrow. 

[WFLukic]

1 hour ago, Scoundrel said:

I have to agree with Rags on the Simmons at edge though. Like Deebo I like getting the 10-15 carries at RB because he has shown he can do it. Simmons has never played 4-3 edge and then he is going up against arguably the best RT in football. It’s like me putting David Andrews at T against Nick Bosa. It’s still on the line and Andrews might win some reps but he is losing most of the game. Might be a little easier for Simmons to transition to that role than Andrews to Tackle but the point is he hasn’t shown he can do it and then against Wirfs especially when Berlin is looking to air it out. Not ideal in my opinion. 

Notwithstanding the fact it would realistically end up what? Maybe 6 or 7 rushes given the Nascar package and rotations generally, I think it's a stretch to compare asking a dude who's good at bullrushing being asked to bullrush vs. A center to block a edge rusher with a wide variety of pass-rushing moves. 

Plus Simmons does get moved around the line. Sure he predominantly plays between 1 and 3 tech, but he's played enough 4 and 5 tech too. I envisioned he'd be in a 5 tech DE kind of spot, not a Jason Babin in the wide 9 defense DE haha.

Link for reference:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/jeffery-simmons-tennessee-titans-outlook-2020

[Scoundrel]

18 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Notwithstanding the fact it would realistically end up what? Maybe 6 or 7 rushes given the Nascar package and rotations generally, I think it's a stretch to compare asking a dude who's good at bullrushing being asked to bullrush vs. A center to block a edge rusher with a wide variety of pass-rushing moves. 

Plus Simmons does get moved around the line. Sure he predominantly plays between 1 and 3 tech, but he's played enough 4 and 5 tech too. I envisioned he'd be in a 5 tech DE kind of spot, not a Jason Babin in the wide 9 defense DE haha.

Link for reference:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/jeffery-simmons-tennessee-titans-outlook-2020

I don’t think he’s necessarily a liability but more so not really impact there and yes I know it’s not for every snap. 

[Scoundrel]

Also in considering Quinnen I’m giving Rags 22 snaps which he played Sunday before exiting from injury. So that considered in with his other DT reps that is 169 snaps played between four players in their last nfl games played. Divided by 2 for both interior positions is 84/85 snaps per position giving him enough snaps in rotation to cover a whole game using all 4 players like he originally intended to do. I’m personally not using PFF as a measuring stick but adding the three DT’s not named Quinnen Williams together and dividing by 3 they have an average overall PFF score of 74.6 just for reference. 

[Ragnarok]

16 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

So with that same concept the plays Deebo is at RB is Murphy coming off the field? Since Witherspoon is only coming on for Hilton and Needham who has to move to SS coming in for Beasley they would be the starters since that is the base formation NOLA is running with correct?

That's for Deebo at WR. 

If Deebo is the RB, then Baron would have him as that never changes.

I already stated the change I'd have to make with Winfield out.  Stokes and Moore are the same, Byron has slot, Witherspoon has Hilton, and Needham takes the SS spot doubling Deebo or spying Josh Allen.  

[Ragnarok]

16 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

Final thoughts on Berlin until I get to NOLA. You have Winfield featured in this gameplan and doing so much I’m not sure Needham can fill that responsibility. Needham does have safety experience though. So will be something to consider. There also is no mention of Deebo at RB something we have seen NOLA do frequently. Feels a little unprepared for their opponent in that regard. 

I dunno if I'd call one of two things 'doing so much'.  Needham will be up in the box and either help double Deebo or spy Allen.  I'd obviously prefer Winfield do it, but I dont think it's that complicated a role.

[Scoundrel]

4 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

That's for Deebo at WR. 

If Deebo is the RB, then Baron would have him as that never changes.

I already stated the change I'd have to make with Winfield out.  Stokes and Moore are the same, Byron has slot, Witherspoon has Hilton, and Needham takes the SS spot doubling Deebo or spying Josh Allen.  

Can you answer me on the JC Jackson question? Do you expect if he’s assigned to obj for example but obj isn’t on the field he would leave the field?

[Scoundrel]

18 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

I dunno if I'd call one of two things 'doing so much'.  Needham will be up in the box and either help double Deebo or spy Allen.  I'd obviously prefer Winfield do it, but I dont think it's that complicated a role.

Maybe not doing too much but vital to what you are trying to do. He’s mentioned more than any other defensive player in your gameplan. Not sure Needham can match that. Are there examples of this in his current play? 

[Jlash]

I'm gonna go with what looks like the minority here and take NO in a ridiculously close matchup. I think Goedert is Rags' hottest offensive player right now and Gilmore has shown that even at 31+ he's still got enough skill to be a TE stopper. The rest of the matchups in my mind defensively favor NO as well, with Jackson and Bradberry being talented enough to slow down their respective match ups. As Scoundrel pointed out I'm not totally  sure why Rags thinks Jackson will be leaving the field regularly based on offensive personnel. Having to move Deebo to RB isn't ideal, but I think him showing how effective he is, combined with how effective Allen as been running out of the backfield is going to be big. I think this is a wildly defensive struggle, and I think NO is going to win an absolute grinder of a game 17-10.

[VigilantZombie]

Firstly, I pretty much saw this matchup like Jlash did but also, the Quinnen Williams injury coming in was pretty big for me. I'm not going to assume he leaves this game but I am going to suggest the shoulder injury hampers him and plays favorably for NOLAs offense despite Schreff being absent. 

That combined with the absence of Winfield and no tbh I dont think Needham fills that role the same way Winfield would, I think there's a lot to overcome defensively for Berlin. Offensively they've got a stout RB and QB but an offense that, tbh, hasn't been particularly off the charts this season. 

NOLA definitely has some issues on offense with injuries as well but I think their defense matches up well with Berlins offense. I agree that this is a defensive matchup to the very last second. I'm giving a slight edge to the team with home field advantage.

21-20 New Orleans

[Ragnarok]

1 hour ago, Scoundrel said:

Can you answer me on the JC Jackson question? Do you expect if he’s assigned to obj for example but obj isn’t on the field he would leave the field?

No, because Gilmore is on Goedert, so I would assume that Jackson and Bradberry would be on whoever I'm playing at WR.

1 hour ago, Scoundrel said:

Maybe not doing too much but vital to what you are trying to do. He’s mentioned more than any other defensive player in your gameplan. Not sure Needham can match that. Are there examples of this in his current play? 

He started at safety for the Dolphins this week.