BDL 2021 Semi-Final Round - #6 Death Valley Nightmare @ #4 Camden Hood Rats

[Whicker]

BDL 2021 Semifinals

Match:  Death Valley Nightmare @ Camden Hood Rats

Away Owner:      @wwhickok

Home Owner:     @Jlash

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[Whicker]

Offense:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: DeVante Parker
WR Michael Gallup
WR: Christian Kirk
TE1: Dawson Knox
LT: Penei Sewell
LG: Dion Dawkins
C : Creed Humphrey
RG: Mark Glowinski
RT:  Morgan Moses

Bench:
RB2: Darrell Williams
RB3: Davonte Booker
WR4: KJ Osborn
WR5: Jalen Reagor
WR6: Freddie Swain
TE2: Tyler Conklin
OT: Chukwuma Okorafor
OG: Conner Williams


Defense
LE: Raekwon Davis
NT: Javon Hargrave
RE: Cam Heyward
LOLB: Maxx Crosby 
ILB: Jeremy Chinn
ILB: Jerome Baker
ROLB: Brian Burns
CB: Darius Slay
CB:  Carlton Davis
FS: Xavier McKinney
SS: Xavier Woods

Bench:
DE: Marlon Davidson
DT: DJ Jones
ILB: Devin Bush
OLB: Kwity Paye
CB4: Rock Ya-Sin
CB 5: James Pierre
NCB: Tre Norwood
S3: Brandon Jones

 

 

 

 

QB- Matt Ryan
RB- Austin Ekeler
WR- Mike Evans
WR- Cooper Kupp
WR- Tyler Boyd
TE- Zach Ertz
LT- Isaiah Wynn
LG- Cody Whitehair
C- JC Tretter
RG- Kevin Zeitler
RT- Orlando Brown Jr.
_________________________
RB- Sony Michel
WR- Nico Collins
WR- Terrace Marshall
TE- Gerald Everett
OL- George Fant
OL- Nate Davis
QB- Justin Fields

DE- Josh Allen
DT- DJ Reader
DT- Neville Gallimore
DE- Yannick Ngakoue
LB- Darius Leonard
Kamara Spy- Amani Hooker
CB- Denzel Ward
CB- Mike Hughes
CB- Greedy Williams
S- Justin Simmons
S- Eric Rowe
____________________________
DE- Montez Sweat
DE- Carl Granderson
CB- CJ Henderson
CB- Harrison Hand
DT- Poona Ford
DT- Maliek Collins
LB- Drue Tranquill
LB- Quincy Williams

[Whicker]

Motivation

Coming into this game, Camden, an underdog in previous weeks already has extra motivation. However, Death Valley, who went on a big run last season but fell short, spent time, money, and countless hours of planning with one goal in mind, the Bizz Bowl Championship! Our next obstacle? The very talented team of the Camden Hood Rats. This game, it is not our Bizz Bowl, it is our next challenge and we are here for it!

Offensive Gameplan

With Sneed out and Josh Allen dealing with a shoulder injury, the Camden defense is a little banged up, still they are formidable to say the least.

We aren't going to let a little cold weather bother us either, this team has been well conditioned, we are prepared for any weather.

We are taking a run first approach to this game with a ball control/clock control mentality to keep the playmakers of Camden on the sidelines. We will use Darrell Williams in the passing game and run game in relief of Kamara and occasionally in a 2 RB set. 

If Healthy, we expect Asante Samuel Jr to be involved in at least some capacity of this game with Sneed out and obviously Mike Hughes once again.

In the running game I am going to run Kamara both inside and outside however I am going to run more outside to stretch the defense. We will spread put Camdens defense but not as much as we did with IC. Camden has a good, not elite, defense that requires us to attack it in many different looks.

In 2 RB sets, mentioned earlier, we will use the threat of run and pass to both sides with Darrell Williams and Alvin Kamara.

We will also use 2 TE sets we will both pass and run, we will use Conklin & Knox in the passing game on seam routes and shallow in and out routes. In the run game we will use Knox and Conklin to open up run lanes for Kamara.

In the passing game, other than the formations listed above, We will use 3WR & 4WR sets. We will use Kirk in the slot as normal, in 4 WR sets We are going to use Kamara both in the backfield and in the passing game. We will split Kamara out wide at times in pass oriented plays and use Knox as a blocker. When we are using Kamara in the backfield we will split Knox out wide.

We are going to press the Defense on deep routes with Parker and Gallup, we will run a lot of intermediate routes. I want to run a lot of slants, corner and post routes and we will use double moves to create space for the receivers.

We will have extra WRs up this week to help keep guys fresh with rare but occasional breather snaps.


Defensive Gameplan 

1st and foremost there are 2 ways that Camden could approach this game and therefore we are going to plan for both. They could go spread offense and try to spread out our defense,  And while I do think they will do this to some extent at some point I also believe that we have the secondary to defend it.

So that brings me to the 2nd option they have and that is a run heavy offense which I think is more likely the primary attack they will choose. Now to be very clear here just because I believe that is going to be their primary attack does not for one second mean I do not think they are going to use the spread offense. I expect a lot of different looks ranging from possible 2RB, 2TE, 3WR, 4WR, maybe even 5WR and everything in between.  I suspect the plan is going to be to throw everything including the kitchen sink at me.

So first of all to address the possible spread offense;  I will in this situation run a nickel defense, the lone Inside linebacker will be Jeremy Chinn, I will match CBs for WRs and have 2 Safeties, both will play deeper intermediate to deep coverage to avoid allowing receivers to get behind us. 

Against a 5 wide receiver set Jeremy Chinn will be the only linebacker on the field. Against 4 wide receivers at Brian Burns will also be on the field and he will rush the passer to create pressure and hopefully create  untimely throws.

For every less receiver on the field a linebacker will come on. Now one thing not particularly mentioned here is that we will be paying close attention to where the tight end is lined up. If the Tight End is spread out away from the edge of the offensive  line we are going to treat him like a wide receiver. If he is close in at the edge of the offensive line we are going to treat him like a blocker. However if we start to notice that Camden is moving the tight end inside to take advantage of potential mismatches in in the passing game we will then start using more pass coverage against him to negate this as an in game adjustment.

Against heavy sets we will also run a heavy set. We are bringing Devin Bush back in for this game because of his ability in coverage. Zaven Collins who really hasn't had a major impact this season is not up for this game instead we have brought an extra defense of alignment to keep the front 3 fresh.

We will utilize Xavier Woods primarily in coverage but occasionally in the box to help defend the running game. McKinney will be focused in coverage. Brandon Jones will be utilizing to keep the Starters fresh with occasional (but rare) breather snaps. We will use Jeremy Chinn to help corral the running back.  It is possible that Austin Ekeler may be a bit slower this week due to an ankle injury however we are treating him as though he is a 100% healthy because I feel strongly that is a best approach Is to being able to limit what he is able to do.  Likewise with Damien Harris officially out this week we expect Sony Michel to be the next man up.

We expect Kupp to have a significant presence in the middle of the field and in 3WR sets or above; We will bracket Kupp and Evans with a safety each on top of corner coverage single cover Boyd and have Chinn cover the Running back

Zach Ertz will see coverage against a CB and/or, [see above for personnel groupings] Devin Bush we expect to see him on cross formation routes and seam routes. We will approach Everett the same way as we will have a heavier set on the field typically in 2 TE sets. Our DBs, LBS, & Safeties will shift and adjust coverage assignments based on who is on the field and what formation they're using to make sure everyone in the passing game has coverage.

Against the run game our plan is to 'seek and destroy'. We want our defense maintaining gap integrity and shadowing the ball carrier. We want him/them moving east and west or backwards but never forward.  We want to essentially force them to become one dimensional by eliminating successful runs. 

Matt Ryan, while he can run, is more of a pocket passer. It's not impossible they start Baker (if he is cleared) or Fields and if so, well one isn't very healthy and the other is prone to turning the ball over.  We want to get after Ryan, who we believe will start. Force bad throws and get a couple of turnovers to turn the tide of this game and get them playing from behind. Ryan really struggles in these situations and almost plays a panicky type of football which usually results in more mistakes.

We plan to rush with 4 guys for the majority of the game and occasionally to keep the offense guessing we will send an all out blitz. We want our defense hitting the running backs hard, we want them to feel the injuries they dared play with.

 

 

 

 

Offense
We take on a DV squad this week that has persevered through some massive injuries to make it this far. The strength of DV is its defense so we need to be smart in how we attack it to neutralize its strengths.

Keep DE's in conflict with RPO- To me, the biggest strength of this DV team is its pass rushers because Burns and Crosby can bring heat. They aren't incredible run players though so we think we can force them into conflict by running a lot to the outsides to test their discipline and wear them down, and then by running a decent amount (65-70% or so) of our passing plays off of RPO with Ryan in shotgun. We think this will cause major disruption in what we're sure will be a focal point of the DV defense to get to Ryan. 

Test CB depth- So first we thought of a way to attack the strength of DV, now we look for a way to attack what we consider its weakness, and thats the CB play. Having the two league leading TD scorers at WR gives us confidence against any group but we feel beyond Slay today, that we've got big advantages all across the board in our matchups. We'll run 3 wide virtually all game, moving our guys around to get a sense of what the defense is doing coverage wise, but also to find matchups that we like best. Kupp will do a lot of work from the inside, and he'll get heavy targets in single coverage. We'll run some 4 wide stuff with bunch sets with Kupp in trips and Evans on the opposite side so DV has to choose who to focus on solely without me lumping them together. This can also help us get the ball into Kupp's hands quicker on some quick screens with bigger WR's blocking in front of him. Evans is going to be huge for us as a chain mover and major red zone threat. We'll look to take advantage of a double move or two with our RPO's running to get some deep shots to Evans also.

Protecting Ryan- Since we respect DV's pass rush we know RPOs alone simply won't stop them, and while we like our tackle duo more than most our RBs and TE's will be used as safety valves/blockers for Ryan. One way is TEs can chip before they get out into their short routes and sit in zones for Ryan, and the other way is our RB's can stay in and protect Ryan, while sometimes slipping out into delayed angle routes and outlet passes after helping chip as well. 

Defense (3 safety cover 1 shell)
DV started the year as a ground and pound team (rightfully so) but has had to make some adjustments due to personnel issues. They can create some unique situations so being creative is key to beating them.

Kamara Spy- Alvin Kamara is the engine of this offense, plain and simple. No matter if WW wants to spread us out with 4 wide, or play power football with 2 TE's if you can slow down Kamara you can take away the one tried and true game breaker he has. We don't feel there are many LB's who can handle him all game, and certainly not on our roster even with Leonard. So we're turning to Amani Hooker, a guy who was a hybrid S/CB/LB his final year at Iowa who excelled in that role and has 4.4 wheels to boot. We'll let Leonard worry about the TE. Kamara is at his best and most dangerous in space, while he's a guy who can carry between the tackles we aren't overly concerned about that. We think replacing a traditional LB with Hooker to spy Kamara all game gives us our best bet to minimize his damage this game. If DV wants to go two TEs, a corner will come off the field for a LB but Hookers role remains, and the same is true if DV goes 4 or 5 wide, the appropriate personnel will be brought in but Hooker's focus is Kamara.

Cover 1/Robber's role- Our usual cover 1 will be our main shell today, because we have the personnel to be able stay flexible with our robber and that gives us the best bet to cause havoc. That role will fall mainly to Eric Rowe today with Reid out. Rowe will spend a lot of time moving up into the box after the snap to jump into quick passing lanes that Stafford may rely on as a safety valve, help defend the run game and also to throw blitzes at Stafford. Our high safety will shade a hair towards Parker since DV likes to send him deep more often. If DV wants to spread the field and keep sending lots of guys deep we can revert to a more traditional cover 2 look, which works for us anyway because that'll be our 1b coverage look to our cover 1 since they look identical at the snap. 

Pressuring Stafford- Every team wants to pressure every QB they face and this is no different. No QB likes to get hit. We think our edge rushers could make an impact in this game, especially if we work some stunts to the inside if Dion Dawkins in fact misses this game. We won't stunt inside a ton because of how dangerous Kamara is to the outside, but if Dawkins is out expect a couple stunts sent at his replacement. If DV decides to attack our edges via run, we'll sub in Montez Sweat aka patient zero who is a strong run player but can also generate some heat on Stafford in place of Ngakoue.

[Jlash]

No Dawkins for you this week unfortunately WW.

[VigilantZombie]

4 minutes ago, Jlash said:

No Dawkins for you this week unfortunately WW.

Damn, didn't even see him on the injury report, what happened there? Conner Williams is in I guess. Ik he is a backup, but in terms of starting capability, I think he proved that this season for what it is worth 

[Jlash]

3 minutes ago, wwhickok said:

Damn, didn't even see him on the injury report, what happened there? Conner Williams is in I guess. Ik he is a backup, but in terms of starting capability, I think he proved that this season for what it is worth 

Not sure, i remember seeing something about it yesterday.

[VigilantZombie]

1 minute ago, Jlash said:

Not sure, i remember seeing something about it yesterday.

Damn. I've been Insanely busy, I didn't even know he was on the covid list. I originally had Jonah Jackson up as my backup OG, but he was also out (thank God I changed that. Kevin Dotson is still on IR lol. So realistically, Williams was the only other option.

[Scoundrel]

5 hours ago, wwhickok said:

Damn, didn't even see him on the injury report, what happened there? Conner Williams is in I guess. Ik he is a backup, but in terms of starting capability, I think he proved that this season for what it is worth 

He actually started today for Dallas. 

[Scoundrel]

In theory I like everything Camden has put out there to combat DV but it’s about do they have the personnel to effectively carry out their plan. DV wants to slow the game down and I think that’s a good approach. The splitting Knox out wide in the 4 wide is going to carry Leonard outside leaving a 4 man dline Hooker and Rowe in the box to stop Kamara. The question is can they do it? Although it isn’t the most featured formation/aspect of the DV offense. A lot to think about overall with this one as well. As there should be in a semi final game.

[Jlash]

6 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

In theory I like everything Camden has put out there to combat DV but it’s about do they have the personnel to effectively carry out their plan. DV wants to slow the game down and I think that’s a good approach. The splitting Knox out wide in the 4 wide is going to carry Leonard outside leaving a 4 man dline Hooker and Rowe in the box to stop Kamara. The question is can they do it? Although it isn’t the most featured formation/aspect of the DV offense. A lot to think about overall with this one as well. As there should be in a semi final game.

All good points. I'm more concerned with Kamara in space, that's where he's most dangerous in my mind.

[Scoundrel]

3 hours ago, Jlash said:

All good points. I'm more concerned with Kamara in space, that's where he's most dangerous in my mind.

While true and you have some good bulk in the middle all he needs is a crease.

[Scoundrel]

The thing I appreciate about Jlash is he is very detailed in how he will attack/defend a team. He’s more bold than I am. He doesn’t plan for every possible outcome which can water it down. He picks his battles and highlights those specific areas something I struggle with in wanting to prepare for everything in my own gameplans. This is a tough matchup for me and I am still deciding. Vote will be in tonight at some point both teams did a great job.

[RedGold]

Kind of shocked to see this so lopsided right now.   Honestly was a very though decision. Both excellent, thought out, game plans.     Two very good defenses and creative offenses to play to their strengths.   Ended up rolling with Death Valley, I think they end up making a few more plays,      DV in a low scoring affair at no fault of the offenses. 

[MD4L]

I see a defensive game across the board. I like Death Valley’s offensive game across the board. I see Stafford having some success in never making the big mistake. Kamara should have a productive game  and I like the DVN receivers to have respectable production.

I am not an avid Ryan fan currently but throwing to Cooper Kupp is a great benefactor in this matchup. I see some success in this game despite an elite pass rush in Burns and Crosby causing havoc. While the opposing CBs are strong, Kupp (and Evans to an extent) have done enough to garner near matchup proof respect against even great coverage.

 

I see Stafford starting up with a lead but I think Camden’s big play weapons and solid pass rushers are the difference in an evenly matched game. Camden 27-24.

[Scoundrel]

Phone dying I’m voting for DV and I’ll explain later.