Draft Pick Watch

[Louis Friend]

No way a QB goes top 2. No one is going to give up picks to move up to #2 to draft one of these QBs. I think Carolina is the earliest one could go. Even then, there is no true top QB prospect. Howell, Corral, Pickett, Willis will be mid to late 1st round picks, if not available round 2. I think Rams pick and #34 will be ideal picks to possibly move for more picks. 

As for Detroit, I still think it's Aidan and Kayvon #1 & #2, but I'm seeing more and more talk of the Jags going OT Neal #1. IFFFFFFF they do that, I think Detroit could get a few offers to move up by teams in that 5 to 12 range wanting their pick of one of the two premier edge rushers. I'd look to move to the Jets pick at #4 in that scenario and grab S Kyle Hamilton, while adding more picks. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Louis Friend

[LionArkie]

I agree about QB this year going number 2. I was really shocked to see any mock site do that.  I'm wondering though if anyone is desperate enough to try to make something happen. I could see Pickett going into the top 10, because of the weak qb class and you either have a qb or you're looking for one. He also has played well this year (but it would still be shocking to me).

[Louis Friend]

10 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I agree about QB this year going number 2. I was really shocked to see any mock site do that.  I'm wondering though if anyone is desperate enough to try to make something happen. I could see Pickett going into the top 10, because of the weak qb class and you either have a qb or you're looking for one. He also has played well this year (but it would still be shocking to me).

I actually like Pickett and Willis the best of this class, and yet Corral and Howell are projected by many to go off the board first. 

QB needy teams? Who is drafting a QB in round one?

Carolina- Sam Darnold and Cam Newton did not work out. They are currently picking top 10. This is the first team I could see drafting a QB, and I think they go Corral or Howell. 

Denver- Drew Locke did not work out. Do they stick with Bridgewater? Rumors have been swirling about Russell/Rodgers for awhile. They might try to sign a QB. Some in their fanbase think they'll double up at CB this draft. 

Pittsburgh- Roethlisberger is done. But do they move up for a QB? Alot of their fanbase/media think they'll go after OL before QB. Could trade for an established QB. Pickett was a target for them for weeks and now most project OL to them. 

Atlanta- How much longer does Matt Ryan have? They have Josh Rosen as a backup QB. Do they draft a QB to sit and groom for a year or two? 

Washington- They need a QB. They are currently drafting right before Denver. If Denver wants a specific QB, I could see them jumping Washington. But not moving up to #2. 

Houston- What do they do with Watson? This is the million dollar question and I'm not sure we'll even know by draft time. I don't see them drafting a QB. I just don't. 

Giants- Daniel Jones is coming back next season per Giants sources. I don't think they draft another QB this soon. Might pick up a vet backup or trade for an established QB. But I don't think they use top draft capital at this position when they have needs on both sides of the ball. 

[CWood21]

On 1/3/2022 at 10:42 AM, Louis Friend said:

As for Detroit, I still think it's Aidan and Kayvon #1 & #2, but I'm seeing more and more talk of the Jags going OT Neal #1. IFFFFFFF they do that, I think Detroit could get a few offers to move up by teams in that 5 to 12 range wanting their pick of one of the two premier edge rushers. I'd look to move to the Jets pick at #4 in that scenario and grab S Kyle Hamilton, while adding more picks. 

Assuming the order doesn't change, it stands to reason that any team looking to move up for a pass rusher would be able to get a better deal from Houston then Detroit.

[Louis Friend]

30 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Assuming the order doesn't change, it stands to reason that any team looking to move up for a pass rusher would be able to get a better deal from Houston then Detroit.

Possibly. 

[diehardlionfan]

47 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Assuming the order doesn't change, it stands to reason that any team looking to move up for a pass rusher would be able to get a better deal from Houston then Detroit.

Not really.

It depends which pass rusher they want and who is on the board at two. 

[CWood21]

28 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

Not really.

It depends which pass rusher they want and who is on the board at two. 

This sounds an awfully lot like the discussion we had a few years ago when Lions were convinced that a team would offer a big package to move up the board to select their QB, and the Lions ended up taking Jeff Okudah 3rd overall.  The problem is there's too many variables involved for the package to line up where the Lions get what they feel the pick is worth and what the team trading up feels comfortable giving away.  The history of trades into the top 5 not involving a QB over the last decade are few and far between.  And usually the package that team acquires isn't anything special.  If you're Detroit, what kind of package would you need to receive in order to pass up on what is viewed as an impact pass rusher?  Would you take a package similar to what the Raiders got when they traded with Miami (3 for 12/42 I believe)?  Probably not.  If you're a team moving up to select Hutch/Thib, are you willing to deal your SRP this year or a FRP next year?  Probably not.

[Nnivolcm]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

This sounds an awfully lot like the discussion we had a few years ago when Lions were convinced that a team would offer a big package to move up the board to select their QB, and the Lions ended up taking Jeff Okudah 3rd overall.  The problem is there's too many variables involved for the package to line up where the Lions get what they feel the pick is worth and what the team trading up feels comfortable giving away.  The history of trades into the top 5 not involving a QB over the last decade are few and far between.  And usually the package that team acquires isn't anything special.  If you're Detroit, what kind of package would you need to receive in order to pass up on what is viewed as an impact pass rusher?  Would you take a package similar to what the Raiders got when they traded with Miami (3 for 12/42 I believe)?  Probably not.  If you're a team moving up to select Hutch/Thib, are you willing to deal your SRP this year or a FRP next year?  Probably not.

I don't think anyone was "convinced" a team would trade up for a QB. I do remember a lot of wishful thinking.

Besides, pass rushers are still a premium position. The recent Marcus Davenport draft day trade netted an extra 1st and more and the Saints were just trading up to 14. 

[diehardlionfan]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

This sounds an awfully lot like the discussion we had a few years ago when Lions were convinced that a team would offer a big package to move up the board to select their QB, and the Lions ended up taking Jeff Okudah 3rd overall.  The problem is there's too many variables involved for the package to line up where the Lions get what they feel the pick is worth and what the team trading up feels comfortable giving away.  The history of trades into the top 5 not involving a QB over the last decade are few and far between.  And usually the package that team acquires isn't anything special.  If you're Detroit, what kind of package would you need to receive in order to pass up on what is viewed as an impact pass rusher?  Would you take a package similar to what the Raiders got when they traded with Miami (3 for 12/42 I believe)?  Probably not.  If you're a team moving up to select Hutch/Thib, are you willing to deal your SRP this year or a FRP next year?  Probably not.

A trade up happening is a totally different discussion. It won’t happen. That doesn’t mean it’s not interesting to discuss. Additionally teams make stupid trades all the time.

You were talking about cost and claimed it would be cheaper to move up with Houston. According to trade value charts that’s true however it’s immaterial if the top two pass rushers are likely to be off the board. The number three pass rusher wouldn’t require a trade up to three.

Edited January 5, 2022 by diehardlionfan

[CWood21]

9 hours ago, Nnivolcm said:

Besides, pass rushers are still a premium position. The recent Marcus Davenport draft day trade netted an extra 1st and more and the Saints were just trading up to 14. 

Pass rushers don't have that same premium that QBs do.  And the Davenport trade had more to do with the fact that the Saints didn't have a SRP to trade since they traded their SRP in '18 to the 49ers in 2017 to select Alvin Kamara.  And the Saints wanted to move up from 27 to 14, which according to the TVC was worth the 48th overall pick.  The next pick the Saints had was their 3rd round selection (#91), which would have left them short roughly the 62nd overall pick in terms of value.  The Saints were moving that far up the board without them dealing their FRP in 2019.  It's really that simple.

[CWood21]

7 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

According to trade value charts that’s true however it’s immaterial if the top two pass rushers are likely to be off the board. The number three pass rusher wouldn’t require a trade up to three.

We were talking about under the assumption that the Jaguars opted for Neal at #1.

[SimbaWho]

On 1/3/2022 at 12:06 PM, LionArkie said:

I agree about QB this year going number 2. I was really shocked to see any mock site do that.  I'm wondering though if anyone is desperate enough to try to make something happen. I could see Pickett going into the top 10, because of the weak qb class and you either have a qb or you're looking for one. He also has played well this year (but it would still be shocking to me).

Speaking of Kenny Pickett... 

What's his ceiling/player comparison? To me it's Derek Carr. An I'd take that guy but the one year rise really kinda, idk, makes me nervous honestly. Selecting any QB makes me nervous always cause it sets you back 3-5 years if you pick wrong. Doesn't mean I put my head in the sand either cause if you get it right, you don't have to worry about the position again for a long time(like with Stafford).

It's the hardest thing is football,(to find a quality QB), so imo, you always have to look hard and evaluate QB's when they're there and it's possible to take them.

Just wondering if anyone at all is just idk, curious right now  about Pickett. Love the Oregon kid(Taking him 1st/2nd/3rd if availble no matter what), and wouldn't hate Hutch. Love ND's safey. 

[Just Want A Title]

Trade-ups into the top 1-3 picks is fairly rare.  The prospect has to viewed as a "missing piece" for a Super Bowl push or a franchise cornerstone.  Most of the time, QBs and LTs are the targets.  That being said, none of the teams that folks are referencing as trade-up partners are really viable.  The Jets need all of the draft picks that they have accumulated.  Carolina has needs on the OL and QB. Any trades we make will be with our second first-round pick, or in the second-round with the goal of accumulating more picks in Rounds 2-4.

[LionArkie]

2 hours ago, SimbaWho said:

Speaking of Kenny Pickett... 

What's his ceiling/player comparison? To me it's Derek Carr. An I'd take that guy but the one year rise really kinda, idk, makes me nervous honestly. Selecting any QB makes me nervous always cause it sets you back 3-5 years if you pick wrong. Doesn't mean I put my head in the sand either cause if you get it right, you don't have to worry about the position again for a long time(like with Stafford).

It's the hardest thing is football,(to find a quality QB), so imo, you always have to look hard and evaluate QB's when they're there and it's possible to take them.

Just wondering if anyone at all is just idk, curious right now  about Pickett. Love the Oregon kid(Taking him 1st/2nd/3rd if availble no matter what), and wouldn't hate Hutch. Love ND's safey. 

For me and in regards to Pickett, I'm intrigued with him and that's about it. If we took him before the 2nd I probably wouldn't be happy as we have so many other needs. I think we would be much better off getting some WR to see what we have in Goff. I'm not quite ready to give up on him and I would feel our 2nd or higher would be essentially a nod in that direction.

Now other teams who are more developed, I could see him going mid to late first.

[Louis Friend]

3 hours ago, SimbaWho said:

Speaking of Kenny Pickett... 

What's his ceiling/player comparison? To me it's Derek Carr. An I'd take that guy but the one year rise really kinda, idk, makes me nervous honestly. Selecting any QB makes me nervous always cause it sets you back 3-5 years if you pick wrong. Doesn't mean I put my head in the sand either cause if you get it right, you don't have to worry about the position again for a long time(like with Stafford).

It's the hardest thing is football,(to find a quality QB), so imo, you always have to look hard and evaluate QB's when they're there and it's possible to take them.

Just wondering if anyone at all is just idk, curious right now  about Pickett. Love the Oregon kid(Taking him 1st/2nd/3rd if availble no matter what), and wouldn't hate Hutch. Love ND's safey. 

I think Derek Carr is a good best case scenario comp for him. He's a higher floor, medium ceiling guy. You can win with him, but if he has the right pieces around him. There are no Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes in this draft. 

The thing with these QBs are that any other year, they are 2nd and 3rd day picks. But because this draft class has no top QBs, they are at the top by default. Which is why I'm not for reaching for one. I like Pickett and Willis the best, but even then, they have major red flags for me and I'm not comfortable taking them in the 1st. I don't think any of these QBs are first rd picks any other year. I also think the lower tier guys, aren't even worth grabbing. They would just be another Blough/Boyle and we don't need more of those. 

I'd be okay taking Pickett or Willis in the second if the Lions fall in love with one of them at the senior bowl. The upside and potential are there. But I'm not wasting first round picks on either of them when there are much better players available and at much bigger needs.