Draft Pick Watch

[diehardlionfan]

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

We were talking about under the assumption that the Jaguars opted for Neal at #1.

Once again if there’s a specific edge rusher the only way to get him is a trade with the Lions. 

I don’t see it happening but if they want a specific player……

[CWood21]

Just now, diehardlionfan said:

Once again if there’s a specific edge rusher the only way to get him is a trade with the Lions. 

I don’t see it happening but if they want a specific player……

Again, it's that same discussion that was had when it was Tua vs Herbert from a few years ago.  That's yet another variable that is extremely hard to project.

[Nnivolcm]

13 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Pass rushers don't have that same premium that QBs do.  And the Davenport trade had more to do with the fact that the Saints didn't have a SRP to trade since they traded their SRP in '18 to the 49ers in 2017 to select Alvin Kamara.  And the Saints wanted to move up from 27 to 14, which according to the TVC was worth the 48th overall pick.  The next pick the Saints had was their 3rd round selection (#91), which would have left them short roughly the 62nd overall pick in terms of value.  The Saints were moving that far up the board without them dealing their FRP in 2019.  It's really that simple.

You're kinda proving my point that teams are willing to pay more to move up and get pass rushers. 

[CWood21]

Just now, Nnivolcm said:

You're kinda proving my point that teams are willing to pay more to move up and get pass rushers. 

I never said teams don't trade up for pass rushers.  I said they don't have the same premium that QBs do.

[Nnivolcm]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I never said teams don't trade up for pass rushers.  I said they don't have the same premium that QBs do.

Quote

 

If you're a team moving up to select Hutch/Thib, are you willing to deal your SRP this year or a FRP next year?  Probably not.

 

This is the quote I was addressing. There are documented cases where teams are willing to do that and more for a pass rusher. I don't think it's likely this year because I think the Lions will be happy to stay put. 

[SimbaWho]

1 hour ago, Louis Friend said:

I think Derek Carr is a good best case scenario comp for him. He's a higher floor, medium ceiling guy. You can win with him, but if he has the right pieces around him. There are no Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes in this draft. 

The thing with these QBs are that any other year, they are 2nd and 3rd day picks. But because this draft class has no top QBs, they are at the top by default. Which is why I'm not for reaching for one. I like Pickett and Willis the best, but even then, they have major red flags for me and I'm not comfortable taking them in the 1st. I don't think any of these QBs are first rd picks any other year. I also think the lower tier guys, aren't even worth grabbing. They would just be another Blough/Boyle and we don't need more of those. 

I'd be okay taking Pickett or Willis in the second if the Lions fall in love with one of them at the senior bowl. The upside and potential are there. But I'm not wasting first round picks on either of them when there are much better players available and at much bigger needs.

Yeah I mostly agree with everything here. Only thing I'd really circle back on and argue is that, hey, maybe Kenny Pickett is still a day 1 QB anywhere from the 3rd-5th guy on the board.

He had a good season, I mean really, he did. Just gotta wonder if it was fluky... though the few games I watched said no not really.(He can throw a little.)

* Like take last year, Kenny played good enough to where you could see and make sense of the RedSkins drafting him at 19, and even the Saints at 28. 6th QB off the board last year. The actual 6th QB off the board was Kyle Trask to Tampa in the 2nd. An I think Picketts a lot better than Trask.

SO yeah he's totally being elevated to a top 5 selection he prolly wouldn't earn most any other year cause no other QB period, outside of himself. An, well cause Lions/Texans/Panthers/Redskins need answers for QBOTF. My guess is that he's a Carolina Panther. 

What I can't like, get out my head is if he is relatively good and can start why not select him? It's easier to find good WR's in FA, same with starters for pass rush, etc. What Lions can't really do is go sign a franchise type QB and definately not for 5 years cheaply. So, in my head that's what I'm wrestling with. On top of it you can ease him in with Goff starting the season and if he flops by the bye week, you bring in Pickett as the savior or future depending on next years bye week date.

 

* I'm not a guy that accepts we can wait till next year... Why, 1 it's a really good theory but that's literally all it is. Nothing says we'll have a shot at a quality QB in the future. Further more everyone making this argument can't even shot call the player they want. I respect the guys that say he we gotta give Goff one more fair shake cause it's a real plausible plan in-front of them and not a theory that can't even be tested for years.

This is also a quality draft to build our defense to a juggernaut like level(imo) with the first three pick we have(1st/1st/2nd). There's players along all three levels that are quality that we'll have shots at. (Thibo/Hutch/Hamilton/Llyod/Clark/Davis/Ojabo/Jobe) 8 dudes on the defensive side that I think are just really good players and we might have a shot with those first three picks to pluck three of these names which would,imo, give us a crazy good defense. Thibo(1st)/Davis(1st)/Llyod(2nd) would just be amazing but it's prolly not even gonna come close to working out like this.

Edited January 6, 2022 by SimbaWho

[Louis Friend]

7 minutes ago, SimbaWho said:

What I can't like, get out my head is if he is relatively good and can start why not select him? It's easier to find good WR's in FA, same with starters for pass rush, etc. What Lions can't really do is go sign a franchise type QB and definitely not for 5 years cheaply. So, in my head that's what I'm wrestling with. On top of it you can ease him in with Goff starting the season and if he flops by the bye week, you bring in Pickett as the savior or future depending on next years bye week date.

Which is why I wouldn't mind spending our 2nd on him. I just don't have him at the 3rd-5th guy on the board. He's in my 20-25 range and there are players that will be selected before him, in the first, that I don't have rated higher, but just based on team needs and projections. Which moves Kenny to that 30-35 range. If it came down to Kenny Pickett or Nakobe Dean, who do you chose? Kenny Pickett vs Treylon Burks? What about Kenny Pickett vs Daxton Hill? Ahmad Gardner? Devin Lloyd? I don't take Pickett over any of those guys. And neither would the teams between the Lions second 1st and the Lions 2nd rd picks. I take one of them and hope Pickett or Willis is available at 34 IF I really like one of them. 

[SimbaWho]

16 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

Which is why I wouldn't mind spending our 2nd on him. I just don't have him at the 3rd-5th guy on the board. He's in my 20-25 range and there are players that will be selected before him, in the first, that I don't have rated higher, but just based on team needs and projections. Which moves Kenny to that 30-35 range. If it came down to Kenny Pickett or Nakobe Dean, who do you chose? Kenny Pickett vs Treylon Burks? What about Kenny Pickett vs Daxton Hill? Ahmad Gardner? Devin Lloyd? I don't take Pickett over any of those guys. And neither would the teams between the Lions second 1st and the Lions 2nd rd picks. I take one of them and hope Pickett or Willis is available at 34 IF I really like one of them. 

Yeah, I understand your point. If you don't think he's good then don't take him. I'm for sure giving him more credit than you are, but I'm not gonna slight you for the point of view if that's what you believe. All's I'd say is even if you think Llyod/Burks are better. An average QB has more effect on the team overall than even a probowl cailabler WR. So... really we'd have to circle on... is Kenny Pickett right now better than Jared Goff? (HUGE DEBATE/QUESTION) Anyone saying give Goff a chance and build up the arms/trenches are making a safe call... that might not hurt the team even but might not be the right call. (Similiar to taking Okudah over any QB in that draft). In Okudahs case it definately hurt the team on many levels but the "theory" was essentially the same, might of been different outcome if DT Derrick Brown was selected.(Patricias rumored choice over Okudah.).

Man, Nakobe Dean is one guy I straight up hope we avoid. (IDk how you feel) He could run so freely on Georgia, and is atheltic which is why he was good. Imo though, what we saw when he played against Alabama is what he is. I've seen way too many smaller athletic dudes thrive in college to come flop or be average in the NFL cause of speed/physicality of all the players/teams.( On top of him playing infront of a stacked heavy/gap controll Dline.) He's basically Jabril Peppers.

Edited January 6, 2022 by SimbaWho

[Louis Friend]

1 minute ago, SimbaWho said:

Yeah, I understand your point. If you don't think he's good then don't take him. I'm for sure giving him more credit than you are, but I'm not gonna slight you for the point of view if that's what you believe.

Man, Nakobe Dean is one guy I straight up hope we avoid. (IDk how you feel) He could run so freely on Georgia, and is atheltic which is why he was good. Imo though, what we saw when he played against Alabama is what he is. I've seen way too many smaller athletic dudes thrive in college to come flop or be average in the NFL cause of speed/physicality of all the players/teams.( On top of him playing infront of a stacked heavy/gap controll Dline.) He's basically Jabril Peppers.

I'd love to have Jabrill Peppers 😂 I really loathe the middle of our defense (ILB/S). I mean seriously loathe. Dean is also a flawed player. If he was more physically gifted, he'd be a top ten pick this year. But very few ILB are top picks. He's still a damn good LB worth of a late first. And I like him more than Pickett.

My view is, this is a very deep draft, it's just missing the top talent. There are not the outstanding top 3-5 guys at the very top we are accustomed to. You have damn good players in Thibs, Hutch and Hamilton, but they are top 10 players any other year. But the talent is deep. Seriously deep. All the way through round 5 IMO. So I just hope we don't reach for perceived needs and just take the best talent available. 

My philosophy is always to draft talent and sign for needs in free agency. 

[Millenhater]

On 1/6/2022 at 6:28 AM, SimbaWho said:

Speaking of Kenny Pickett... 

What's his ceiling/player comparison? To me it's Derek Carr. An I'd take that guy but the one year rise really kinda, idk, makes me nervous honestly. Selecting any QB makes me nervous always cause it sets you back 3-5 years if you pick wrong. Doesn't mean I put my head in the sand either cause if you get it right, you don't have to worry about the position again for a long time(like with Stafford).

It's the hardest thing is football,(to find a quality QB), so imo, you always have to look hard and evaluate QB's when they're there and it's possible to take them.

Just wondering if anyone at all is just idk, curious right now  about Pickett. Love the Oregon kid(Taking him 1st/2nd/3rd if availble no matter what), and wouldn't hate Hutch. Love ND's safey. 

I think he's best comp is the guy we have under center.  All the way down to the small hands.  Honestly I think the QBs in this draft from what I've seen are pretty terrible.  I don't want to spend anything higher than a 5th round pick on one.

[Millenhater]

MI think it will be interesting to predict who are “Campbell Guys” in this draft.

Here are some guys I think Holme, Campbell, and Spielman are going to like:

Hutchinson/Thibs

Drake London

Jaquon Brisker

Devin Lloyd

JoJo Domann

 

I wouldn’t doubt it if our draft goes:

Hutchinson

Brisker

London

Domann

 

[Louis Friend]

I think if it came down to Hutch or Thibs (if Jags go Neal #1), I think Hutch is more of a Campbell guy. Doesn't give up on plays, kneecap biter, breathes the game of football. Kayvon is more athletic, but Hutch wants it more. London and Burks are that type of player at WR IMO. I'd take either one of them, but prefer London. Brisker and Monday are that type of player at safety. These guys are fighters. It's what they saw in Sewell and ARSB. It's what we had with Suh, KVB, Tulloch, Slay, etc. 

[Karnage84]

Since we have a need at LB, I wanted to see what our chances were at landing one of our top targets (Dean or Lloyd) with the Rams pick. 

# of LB off the board (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018); PFF;TDN;PFN

1) 12, 8, 5, 8 > 8 - 12 (top 10, plus or minus) = Devin Lloyd; Devin Lloyd; Devin Lloyd

2) 16, 23, 10, 16 > 10 - 23 (mid-1st round) = Nakobe Dean; Nakobe Dean; Nakobe Dean

3) 19, 27, 49, 19 > 19 - 49 (late 1st - 2nd) = Leo Chenal; Christian Harris; Christian Harris

4) 52, 28, (Past 2nd rd), 22 > 22 - 52 (late 1st - 2nd/3rd) = Chad Muma; Darrian Beavers; Chad Muma

5) 58, 60, (past 2nd round), 36 > 36 - 60 (2nd/3rd) = Brian Asamoah; Brandon Smith; Brandon Smith

6) 60, 63, (past 2nd round), 41 > 41 - 63 (2nd/3rd) = Brandon Smith; Chad Muma; Quay Walker

 

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

Since we have a need at LB, I wanted to see what our chances were at landing one of our top targets (Dean or Lloyd) with the Rams pick. 

# of LB off the board (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018); PFF;TDN;PFN

1) 12, 8, 5, 8 > 8 - 12 (top 10, plus or minus) = Devin Lloyd; Devin Lloyd; Devin Lloyd

2) 16, 23, 10, 16 > 10 - 23 (mid-1st round) = Nakobe Dean; Nakobe Dean; Nakobe Dean

3) 19, 27, 49, 19 > 19 - 49 (late 1st - 2nd) = Leo Chenal; Christian Harris; Christian Harris

4) 52, 28, (Past 2nd rd), 22 > 22 - 52 (late 1st - 2nd/3rd) = Chad Muma; Darrian Beavers; Chad Muma

5) 58, 60, (past 2nd round), 36 > 36 - 60 (2nd/3rd) = Brian Asamoah; Brandon Smith; Brandon Smith

6) 60, 63, (past 2nd round), 41 > 41 - 63 (2nd/3rd) = Brandon Smith; Chad Muma; Quay Walker

 

This is the list of guys not named Lloyd or Dean in order based on the current rankings. 

• Leo Chenal, Wisconsin - 6'2, 261 > 91.5 PFF Score (94.1 RDEF, 91.8 PRSH, 56.7 COV)
• Christian Harris, Alabama - 6'2, 232 > 59.7 PFF Score (65.4 RDEF, 64.0 PRSH, 47.2 COV)
• Chad Muma, Wyoming - 6'3, 242 > 90.3 PFF Score (91.1 RDEF, 67.9 PRSH, 77.7 COV)
• Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati - 6'4, 255 > 77.7 PFF Score (73.7 RDEF, 86.1 PRSH, 68.0 COV)
• Brian Asamoah, Oklahoma - 6'1, 228 > 76.3 PFF Score (77.7 RDEF, 66.7 PRSH, 73.9 COV)
• Brandon Smith, Penn State - 6'3, 241 > 59.7 PFF Score (47.6 RDEF, 56.4 PRSH, 80.0 COV)
• Quay Walker, Georgia - 6'4, 240 > 72.0 PFF Score (71.5 RDEF, 69.5 PRSH, 70.6 COV)

A guy that I have never really given much thought to or consideration is Chad Muma. Principally because his name is Chad and he went to Wyoming. This tells me that I should take a closer look at him as he seems to fit a lot of what we can use inside. Chenal and Beavers seems like guys that will principally play as an Edge.  

[Karnage84]

CHAD MUMA

Class of 2017

ESPN Recruiting - Unranked, Signed with Wyoming

6'2, 196 lb Safety

• 40: 4.70 (4.52 - 5.15)
• SS: 4.33 (3.94 - 4.93)
• VJ: 34.9 (24.4 - 43.2)
• Power Throw: 38.0 (28.0 - 43.5)
• SPARQ: 97.86 (54.66 - 144)

PFF SCORES

• 2018 - 47.0
• 2019 - 76.7
• 2020 - 78.2
• 2021 - 90.3

SNAPS BY POSITION

• Box: 708
• Slot Corner: 79
• DL: 28