2022 Draft Position Watch

[Broncofan]

We had the playoff watch, which was a nice refreshing change...but at 7-7 and 3-6 in conference play, we're 1 loss away from total elimination, and already facing a tall order in beating @LV , @LAC (which isn't so hard stadium-wise, but LAC will be very much in the playoff spot, and unlikely to go -3 in TO's to us again), and of course, KC (who with the #1 seed, would have to have some major fortune to have a bye week for Week 18 with NE & TEN chasing them, and winning the tie-breakers in a tie).

https://tankathon.com/nfl

Crazy part - if we had won vs CIN, we'd be hunting for a playoff spot, but once the WFT-PHI game is over (both are 6-7, and both have a much better SOS than us) - we'll be in the #12 pick spot.   And while I don't think it's realistic to think we'll drop any further than 1-2 spots, a top 12 pick would look AWFULLY attractive to SEA or GB - if they want to re-dive into the QBOTF pool, or they want to just improve (much more than a pick in the late teen's).  

And before ppl think I'm hoping that DEN tanks - I don't hope they tank. I hope they give it their all, and have a CIN-like result - where we see the core and reasons to be so optimistic, but have the parts on our team that aren't likely to return to be our downfall.   It's certainly very plausible with @LAC/@KC.    And LV's always matched up well with us - and they're in a better spot than we are, tiebreaker wise.   

Either way, worth watching. 

 

[The Helicopter]

We might lose out and nab a top 10 draft pick. Spicy!

Edited December 21, 2021 by The Helicopter

[broncosfan_101]

If I’m not mistaken, PHI’s SOS is actually weaker than ours. And if they beat WFT tomorrow, that should weaken it even further? So dropping to 1.12 isn’t a foregone conclusion tomorrow. 

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

If I’m not mistaken, PHI’s SOS is actually weaker than ours. And if they beat WFT tomorrow, that should weaken it even further? So dropping to 1.12 isn’t a foregone conclusion tomorrow. 

Yeah I was looking At SEA for some reason; after today we’ll still be at 13.   
 

The thing in our favor though is Philly / WFT play each other again and both play NYG.   The likelihoood the winner tomorrow passes us by season’s end is sky high.   If we get the right bounces both PHI & WFT could pass us in the next 3 weeks.  
 

Realistically 4 teams could pass us or catch us on tiebreakers: 

1.  PHI / WFT winner today very likely to win 1-2 more games afterwards by beating NYG & same opponent again. 

2. PHI/WFT loser today could win 2 games if they take 2nd game and beat NYG.  

3. SEA at 5-8 has CHI/DET/ARI left after LAR game tonight.   If they tie us they likely win the SOS tiebreaker though.  If they lose to LAR they need to go 2-1 while we lose out.   So root for SEA to beat LAR today with their COVID depleted lineup. 

if we go 0-3 then that’s how you get to the 10 spot.  ATL doesn’t seem likely to catch us if we win 1 game, as their SoS would hurt us in a tiebreaker and they do play DET this week (then BUF/NO so this is their big chance to get to 7W’s but 8-9 seems iffy).  
 

Everyone else is 2 games below so it’s not realistic (possible but not at all realistic). 
 

If we go 1-2 likely we end up in early mid teens.  

Edited December 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[broncofan48]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah I was looking At SEA for some reason; after today we’ll still be at 13.   
 

The thing in our favor though is Philly / WFT play each other again and both play NYG.   The likelihoood the winner tomorrow passes us by season’s end is sky high.   If we get the right bounces both PHI & WFT could pass us in the next 3 weeks.  
 

Realistically 4 teams could pass us or catch us on tiebreakers: 

1.  PHI / WFT winner today very likely to win 1-2 more games afterwards by beating NYG & same opponent again. 

2. PHI/WFT loser today could win 2 games if they take 2nd game and beat NYG.  

3. SEA at 5-8 has CHI/DET/ARI left after LAR game tonight.   If they tie us they likely win the SOS tiebreaker though.  If they lose to LAR they need to go 2-1 while we lose out.   So root for SEA to beat LAR today with their COVID depleted lineup. 

if we go 0-3 then that’s how you get to the 10 spot.  ATL doesn’t seem likely to catch us if we win 1 game, as their SoS would hurt us in a tiebreaker and they do play DET this week (then BUF/NO so this is their big chance to get to 7W’s but 8-9 seems iffy).  
 

Everyone else is 2 games below so it’s not realistic (possible but not at all realistic). 
 

If we go 1-2 likely we end up in early mid teens.  

We are starting Drew Lock next week so a loss to the Raiders is likely, Chargers fighting for their playoff life and then the Chiefs, I'm thinking 1-2 is the most likely outcome with 0-3 not a crazy possibility 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, broncofan48 said:

We are starting Drew Lock next week so a loss to the Raiders is likely, Chargers fighting for their playoff life and then the Chiefs, I'm thinking 1-2 is the most likely outcome with 0-3 not a crazy possibility 

If the Raiders had Ruggs & Waller I think we'd see a repeat of the first game.  As flawed as Lock is, the Raiders' O is in a lot of trouble - they lost G Incognito and Good and it's been a big downgrade, although Leatherwood is better as a G he was a classic Gruden reach for T and so their OL hasn't been great and their run game has disappeared from the power-based monster they had 1-2 years ago.   Losing Waller really hurts, as Renfrow is their only reliable short possession guy now, and no Ruggs really hurts their vertical game.

The Raiders D has been awful, but they certainly improved against CLE - but CLE was missing 2 starters on OL, Landry and Hooper (and their WR corps isn't deep to begin with).   And of course, Nick Mullens at QB.

In a TO neutral game I think it's a toss up.   Lock obviously bring the -2 or -3 TO game potential, though.  I do agree 1-2 seems likely, but LV is the game we can certainly win straight-up, whereas we'd need a +2 TO game to beat LAC or KC (or have KC/LAC totally decimated of starters by Covid protocol and/or byes).

[AKRNA]

Three games out and there are way to many variables to compute as far as draft position.

There are 16 games this weekend with 65,536 possible w/l scenarios, each one of which will affect draft position. That's lots of possibilities. 

[Cutler06]

This draft looks decent on OL, EDGE/LB and CB, all areas we're needing to add some talent. I think it has some DL talent too but more so early. Depending on  if/when we trade for a QB, we could still take care of a couple of these needs. 

[The Helicopter]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

If the Raiders had Ruggs & Waller I think we'd see a repeat of the first game.  As flawed as Lock is, the Raiders' O is in a lot of trouble - they lost G Incognito and Good and it's been a big downgrade, although Leatherwood is better as a G he was a classic Gruden reach for T and so their OL hasn't been great and their run game has disappeared from the power-based monster they had 1-2 years ago.   Losing Waller really hurts, as Renfrow is their only reliable short possession guy now, and no Ruggs really hurts their vertical game.

The Raiders D has been awful, but they certainly improved against CLE - but CLE was missing 2 starters on OL, Landry and Hooper (and their WR corps isn't deep to begin with).   And of course, Nick Mullens at QB.

In a TO neutral game I think it's a toss up.   Lock obviously bring the -2 or -3 TO game potential, though.  I do agree 1-2 seems likely, but LV is the game we can certainly win straight-up, whereas we'd need a +2 TO game to beat LAC or KC (or have KC/LAC totally decimated of starters by Covid protocol and/or byes).

Our defense could play lights out and Lock will still give up points. A pick 6 or two maybe a fumble return...then the Defense gives up and we're free fallin'...

[AKRNA]

2 hours ago, The Helicopter said:

Our defense could play lights out and Lock will still give up points. A pick 6 or two maybe a fumble return...then the Defense gives up and we're free fallin'...

My thoughts exactly! Two expressions come to mind, "great minds run on the same track" and "fools think alike". Wonder which one this is.😉

[Broncofan]

For our trade capital package, a hard-fought L vs. LV puts us in great draft position.  We're holding at 11th, and if we lose out, likely we likely can't do worse than 11th-12th (even though the 2 teams win percentages go up, we're getting into most intra-division matchups, so the division records will stay static).    

https://tankathon.com/nfl

WFT with a win over PHI (unlikely) or NYG (very possible), would likely overtake us.  ATL plays NO week 18 so that could be a meaningless game, and as we just saw with CHI-SEA, those are far more unpredictable.    If MIN/CLE keep losing out like us, seems less likely their SoS will shift to where they "catch" us (and MIN gets CHI week 18).   

It's really crazy that we were very much in the hunt for playoffs 2 weeks ago - and if we lose out to LAC & KC (who with TEN's win over SF, if they beat MIA next week, force KC to play a meaningful Week 18), that we're likely talking about a pick in the 9-12 range.    That would help our pursuit for either Wilson or A-Rod, it wouldn't compete with NYG's package, but certainly beats PIT's or NO's.    As always, I'm not rooting for the team to actually tank, but losing to both LAC & KC is certainly very plausible even with the full play-to-win attitude we expect (the LAC W, much like our other past W's vs. them in prior years, fuelled by a lopsided TO margin - if that fails to repeat, LAC's still very much the more talented squad).

[BroncoSojia]

Another year, another season ending with me frequenting tankathon for the last few weeks.

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

Another year, another season ending with me frequenting tankathon for the last few weeks.

To be fair, we were in the playoff race up until Week 15-16 L's.   Don't get me wrong, I've always said we're not a legitimate contender this year with our current QB situation, but at least we're making tangible progress.   To be in the hunt for playoffs until then, and still end up with a top 12 pick, is like having the best of both worlds IMO.

[AnAngryAmerican]

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

To be fair, we were in the playoff race up until Week 15-16 L's.   Don't get me wrong, I've always said we're not a legitimate contender this year with our current QB situation, but at least we're making tangible progress.   To be in the hunt for playoffs until then, and still end up with a top 12 pick, is like having the best of both worlds IMO.

I’ve said since August, if not since May, that this team was a pretender. I said we’d be competitive and would be better than the 2017, ‘18, ‘19 and ‘20 versions - we’d be an afterthought but not a laughing stock - and once again I was right. 

You guys have to remember my mantra - The only time I’ve ever been wrong, was that time I thought I made a mistake.😆

[broncos67]

2 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I’ve said since August, if not since May, that this team was a pretender. I said we’d be competitive and would be better than the 2017, ‘18, ‘19 and ‘20 versions - we’d be an afterthought but not a laughing stock - and once again I was right. 

You guys have to remember my mantra - The only time I’ve ever been wrong, was that time I thought I made a mistake.😆

Might use that quote going forward. I like that lol.