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Christian McCaffrey: Is the upside even there to turn it around


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Most rookies should be given 3 years before they are labeled bust.  They are still boys playing against men in that first year.  Running through tackles in college is not the same as the NFL.  They need an offseason to get stronger and make adjustments.  Those that can't/don't will be busts or jags.

 

That being said, CMC had a lot of miles on his legs in college.  I was worried he would wear down quickly in the NFL. And his Oline did him zero favors.  He is a good receiver.

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1 hour ago, LaserFocus said:

Too early to call him a bust, but it wasn't an impressive selection in the context of where he was drafted. McCaffrey had basically Danny Woodhead's best season in 2017, lots of receptions, but little value as a RB or kick returner. Now maybe he improves next season, as you said, Carolina will have a new offensive coordinator. But McCaffrey was the eighth overall selection, and more is obviously expected. The impact all purpose backs can hurt you rushing, receiving, and returning. A top ten pick has to have a major impact, and McCaffrey has a long way to go. I don't have the 2017 draft results handy, but their were plenty other players drafted after McCaffrey who enjoyed better rookie seasons.  

Again, this is ignoring context. Sure, the statistics from Woodhead’s 2013 and 2015 season are nearly identical to McCaffrey’s 2017. But Woodhead wasn’t a rookie and had been in the league for 4 years when the 2013 season began. And his production occurred within a much more functional, potent offense (Rivers threw for almost 4500 yards and completed 69.5% of his passes and Ryan Mathews ran for 1255 yards at a 4.4 yards per carry clip in 2013. The Chargers’ overall running game wasn’t as good in 2015, but Rivers was nearly as productive throwing that year). It’s an apples to oranges comparison. 

As far as wanting more out of a top 10 pick, I think you have unrealistic expectations. The guys that produced more than McCaffrey this year mostly played on better offenses (Kareem Hunt: Andy Reid’s offense with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Alex Smith; Alvin Kamara: Sean Payton’s offense with Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas, and Drew Brees) or were given more opportunities (Leonard Fournette wasn’t splitting time with Chris Ivory in the same way McCaffrey was sharing the backfield with Jonathan Stewart.  So while these guys may have produced more with or without respect to where they were drafted, you have to take into context who they were drafted by, not just when they were drafted. Take this other players and swap them with McCaffrey, and the production of all players involved would have looked different  

And regardless of what you want to think of these players, it’s foolish to judge any of them as finished products after a single year. It’s just too small a sample size. 

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24 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said:

I want him to be Kareem Hunt.

Kareem Hunt's stats at 8 wouldn't be a bust.

The problem is that Kareem Hunt likely doesn't put up "Kareem Hunt in Kansas City stats" if he is in the Panthers offense. Charcandrick West averaged 4 ypc as a backup this year in Kansas City, so it leads me to believe their OL was at least decent with fairly consistent holes to run through. The Panthers had Jonathan Stewart with a career low 3.4 yards per carry this year. Christian McCaffrey was slightly better at 3.7 yards per carry. 

Here's a paragraph from an NFL.com article regarding next gen stats on the Carolina OL:

"The most alarming problem for Carolina's group is a lack of surge off the snap, which is typically indicative of a doomed line. In Week 7, the average yards gained before a defender closed in within 1 yard for Carolina running backs was -0.2 yards, or 0.2 yards into the backfield, per Next Gen Stats. On the season, Carolina is second-worst in the league in that category, averaging -0.28 yards gained before close. That area usually comes down to size, power and desire. Rarely have the Panthers won that battle in 2017."

On average the Carolina RB's were seeing their first defender .28 yards in the backfield. No RB can consistently succeed with a defender consistently in the backfield like that. There is a reason the OC just got fired for the Panthers. 

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1 hour ago, gopherwrestler said:

I want him to be Kareem Hunt.

Kareem Hunt's stats at 8 wouldn't be a bust.

But do you realize how exceptional Hunts rookie season was? So he has to be the NFLs leading rusher as a rookie to not be a bust?

i get that he didn’t have great rushing stats. But do you believe that if Hunt and McCaffrey switched places and teams, we would be calling Hunt a stud and McCaffrey a bust right now? I don’t. 

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Just now, BleedTheClock said:

But do you realize how exceptional Hunts rookie season was? So he has to be the NFLs leading rusher as a rookie to not be a bust?

i get that he didn’t have great rushing stats. But do you believe that if Hunt and McCaffrey switched places and teams, we would be calling Hunt a stud and McCaffrey a bust right now? I don’t. 

Probably both wouldn't of worked out as well TBH.

Hunt may have taken more carries away from Stewart than what McCaffrey did.

I don't see McCaffrey putting up the rushing numbers Hunt did in KC.

 

I'm not exactly saying he needs that dominant of a run, but I do expect my rookie RB that was a top 10 pick to basically take over the job, and put up high numbers. To be fair, more of the rushing numbers closer to Fournette even.

 

You basically took a screwdriver in the top first round, when you needed a hammer.

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1 minute ago, gopherwrestler said:

Probably both wouldn't of worked out as well TBH.

Hunt may have taken more carries away from Stewart than what McCaffrey did.

I don't see McCaffrey putting up the rushing numbers Hunt did in KC.

 

I'm not exactly saying he needs that dominant of a run, but I do expect my rookie RB that was a top 10 pick to basically take over the job, and put up high numbers. To be fair, more of the rushing numbers closer to Fournette even.

 

You basically took a screwdriver in the top first round, when you needed a hammer.

I mean, I understand you wanted great production out of a guy taken that high, but he was underutilized and playing behind a historically bad OL. Watch Carolina play and the ineptitude of the run blocking and play design will be painfully obvious as to why they can’t run. 

RBs should be able to create their own offense to a degree, but not when teams peel their ears back and utterly destroy your OL off the ball every play. Prime Jim Brown would have struggled in Carolina this season. 

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4 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said:

and I am in no way saying he is a bust, I just don't think the type of player they are using him for deserves to be a top 10 type of pick.

I actually believe McCaffrey can be an actual pure runner, but the team did him a disservice and not really utilizing him all that well.

 

This I can buy. He’s a bust because of the way he’s been utilized (assuming they don’t change that), but it’s not on his lack of talent. Some are suggesting he’s just not good enough to be taken in the top 10 and I disagree. They need to patch up their OL, maybe move to a ZBS, and find some “extra blockers” like a FB and a TE that know how to set an edge or kick block.

He looks like a dud now, but so do a lot of rookies...especially ones playing behind established veterans. He’ll be fine. 

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16 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I mean, I understand you wanted great production out of a guy taken that high, but he was underutilized and playing behind a historically bad OL. Watch Carolina play and the ineptitude of the run blocking and play design will be painfully obvious as to why they can’t run. 

RBs should be able to create their own offense to a degree, but not when teams peel their ears back and utterly destroy your OL off the ball every play. Prime Jim Brown would have struggled in Carolina this season. 

This is pretty much my thoughts on this as well. Carolina's run game got destroyed this year due to their OL. Despite this, because of McCaffrey's versatility, he was able to put up a good season especially as a WR. Without him this year, I don't think Carolina makes the playoffs. They lost several skill players to injury this year, and he kept so many drives alive with his ability to catch out of the backfield, line up in the slot, and even play outside at WR. That was very valuable to the Panthers. That said, if they can improve the line, now they have the dual threat guy they were looking for. 

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again he isnt a bust but he is dissapointing for a top 10 pick

 

rb are made to be rushers...he hasnt shown anything in the run game even with limited rushes

he is chris thompson.....and even he showed more before getting hurt also thompson wasnt a top 10 pick

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