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Christian McCaffrey: Is the upside even there to turn it around


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15 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Good RBs find a way to get it done in spite of their OL. 

So Todd Gurley isn't good?

He has basically had 2 games worth of carries, 49 total. He also leads the team in targets and catches (and now yards since the Benjamin trade) so his role is clearly that of something other than a traditional RB thus far.

Furthermore, I just jumped into the thread I have no idea what has been said although I'm fairly sure what I have said has already been mentioned.

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4 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

So Todd Gurley isn't good?

He has basically had 2 games worth of carries, 49 total. He also leads the team in targets and catches (and now yards since the Benjamin trade) so his role is clearly that of something other than a traditional RB thus far.

Furthermore, I just jumped into the thread I have no idea what has been said although I'm fairly sure what I have said has already been mentioned.

Totally agree with this, which is why versatility is a great trait for RB's

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28 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

So Todd Gurley isn't good?

He has basically had 2 games worth of carries, 49 total. He also leads the team in targets and catches (and now yards since the Benjamin trade) so his role is clearly that of something other than a traditional RB thus far.

Furthermore, I just jumped into the thread I have no idea what has been said although I'm fairly sure what I have said has already been mentioned.

I don’t think that there is any question that he has been a solid receiver. But 3rd down backs are suppose to have artificially HIGH YPC. McCaffrey, in spite of not seeing much short yardage work, has an abysmal YPC. I still like McCaffrey, and he’s smart and hard working enough to probably figure it out eventually...but he has NOT been a good runner this year. It’s not the circumstances...the circumstances are slanted in his favor. 

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35 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I don’t think that there is any question that he has been a solid receiver. But 3rd down backs are suppose to have artificially HIGH YPC. McCaffrey, in spite of not seeing much short yardage work, has an abysmal YPC. I still like McCaffrey, and he’s smart and hard working enough to probably figure it out eventually...but he has NOT been a good runner this year. It’s not the circumstances...the circumstances are slanted in his favor. 

No they aren't favored for him. He isn't a 3rd down back. He is in a split backfield with Stewart. If there is no hole to run through then you won't get yardage. I've watched just about every snap he's played this season. On 3rd down he doesn't typically run it. They usually line him up at WR or have him run a route out of the backfield on 3rd down.

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15 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

No they aren't favored for him. He isn't a 3rd down back. He is in a split backfield with Stewart. If there is no hole to run through then you won't get yardage. I've watched just about every snap he's played this season. On 3rd down he doesn't typically run it. They usually line him up at WR or have him run a route out of the backfield on 3rd down.

You know the team more than I do, so I’m going to take your word for it. But I also know that I use to make the same excuses for Reggie Bush early in his career. In hindsight, though he had excellent field awareness in space...he wasn’t an extinctive runner...and it took Pierre Thomas, a much better runner, to show that. 

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1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

So Todd Gurley isn't good?

He has basically had 2 games worth of carries, 49 total. He also leads the team in targets and catches (and now yards since the Benjamin trade) so his role is clearly that of something other than a traditional RB thus far.

Furthermore, I just jumped into the thread I have no idea what has been said although I'm fairly sure what I have said has already been mentioned.

You can't namedrop Todd Gurley as an excuse for every terrible rookie RB. The beautiful thing about the runningback position is that it is much difficult to fake brilliance and disguise inadequacy. People can use 10 different stats to justify a QB but RBs have only 1 or 2. 

To expound on this point, McCaffrey is not comparable to Gurley. Todd averaged 3.2 yards per carry behind a poor Rams' line in 2016. McCaffrey is averaging an abysmal 2.4 yards per carry behind the Panthers' line. Stewart is running behind the same bad Carolina line,  battling injuries, and still averaging 3.0 yards per carry. Presumably then the numbers imply McCaffrey is not even Stewart as a RB, let alone Todd Gurley.

Statistically, McCaffrey is right now a bust because, to this point, his production has fallen well below what is expected of a high 1st round pick. There is no reason to think McCaffrey will have a Gurley-like rise. Stewart has never averaged 2.4 YPA in any year of his career, and he's had poor offensive lines too.

Edit: McCaffrey's 49 touches, combined with his practice and preseason touches, is more than enough for Carolina to evaluate him. Nobody needs 300 touches to evaluate a RB's ability.

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5 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

You know the team more than I do, so I’m going to take your word for it. But I also know that I use to make the same excuses for Reggie Bush early in his career. In hindsight, though he had excellent field awareness in space...he wasn’t an extinctive runner...and it took Pierre Thomas, a much better runner, to show that. 

I agree and I've mentioned this before with the McCaffrey/Bush comparisons. Right now all of the Panthers runningbacks have struggled running the ball. When Bush was struggling to run the ball the first few seasons for us with the Saints. McCallister and Thomas were putting up solid numbers as far as yards per carry

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5 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

I agree and I've mentioned this before with the McCaffrey/Bush comparisons. Right now all of the Panthers runningbacks have struggled running the ball. When Bush was struggling to run the ball the first few seasons for us with the Saints. McCallister and Thomas were putting up solid numbers as far as yards per carry

McCaffrey isn't a game breaker like Reggie Bush was. McCaffrey's 2.4 yards per carry is historically poor in comparison to good-to-great NFL RB production. Like Gurley and Carolina's own Stewart, Bush never averaged below 3.0 ypc until literally last year, his 11th year in the league. A better comparison for McCafrrey is a bigger Tavon Austin with better hands. He's a gadget player forced into a lineup by McCaffrey Truthers. Carolina should draft a RB next year and trade McCaffrey if he cannot play receiver.

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For all the non-Panthers fans, y'all need to trust us on this.  We've seen all of our offensive snaps.  You haven't.  We aren't exaggerating when we talk about the offensive line.

Here's a good compilation of all Jonathan Stewart's runs from the Eagles game:

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/boards/topic/142790-the-blame-game-reviewing-all-of-jonathan-stewarts-runs/

On a few, Stewart maybe could have done more by identifying a hole.  But on the vast majority, he's getting hit in the backfield.  It's been like that against everybody this year, not just the Eagles.

McCaffrey hasn't been great running the ball.  He does go down easily when defenders get an arm on him.  But if the Panthers offensive line could give him a bit more space to get going, he and Stewart would be more effective.  The majority of the blame lies with the line. 

I think people are being too critical of McCaffrey considering he's just a rookie--albeit a highly drafted one--and they seem to be ignoring his contributions in the passing game.  Sure, we'd all like him to run the ball more effectively, but how can a rookie who is on pace for almost 100 receptions and has been one of the more consistent players in terms of us moving the ball on offense be a bust like some are already proclaiming him?  

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27 minutes ago, celestial said:

You can't namedrop Todd Gurley as an excuse for every terrible rookie RB. The beautiful thing about the runningback position is that it is much difficult to fake brilliance and disguise inadequacy. People can use 10 different stats to justify a QB but RBs have only 1 or 2. 

To expound on this point, McCaffrey is not comparable to Gurley. Todd averaged 3.2 yards per carry behind a poor Rams' line in 2016. McCaffrey is averaging an abysmal 2.4 yards per carry behind the Panthers' line. Stewart is running behind the same bad Carolina line,  battling injuries, and still averaging 3.0 yards per carry. Presumably then the numbers imply McCaffrey is not even Stewart as a RB, let alone Todd Gurley.

Statistically, McCaffrey is right now a bust because, to this point, his production has fallen well below what is expected of a high 1st round pick. There is no reason to think McCaffrey will have a Gurley-like rise. Stewart has never averaged 2.4 YPA in any year of his career, and he's had poor offensive lines too.

Edit: McCaffrey's 49 touches, combined with his practice and preseason touches, is more than enough for Carolina to evaluate him. Nobody needs 300 touches to evaluate a RB's ability.

To evaluate a RBs ability off of his first 49 carries is silly. Emmitt Smith was at like 2.8 after 4 games as a rookie covering about 40 carries. Guess he was never going to be good either. McCaffery could take his first carry 80 yards to start his next game and be over 4 yards per carry, then your argument would be destroyed, he'd be averaging a yard more than Stewart and and putting up decent numbers in limited carries. It would still mean very little just like his stats do now as a runner.

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7 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

To evaluate a RBs ability off of his first 49 carries is silly. Emmitt Smith was at like 2.8 after 4 games as a rookie covering about 40 carries. Guess he was never going to be good either. McCaffery could take his first carry 80 yards to start his next game and be over 4 yards per carry, then your argument would be destroyed, he'd be averaging a yard more than Stewart and and putting up decent numbers in limited carries. It would still mean very little just like his stats do now as a runner.

Emmitt Smith's rookie year was 17-18 years ago. If you must stretch back that far to accommodate McCaffrey's poor production and declare he is only going through a purple patch, chances are you are wrong. Anything can happen, but past production tends to predict future production in the NFL. McCaffrey will more than likely come out as an average RB this season. 

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