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2022 Offseason Thread


Emerica

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56 minutes ago, Emerica said:

There are going to be a ton of rumors of Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray to Miami if Tua doesn't take a step up. If we are moving on from Tua after next season, I'd rather draft a dude than go after either of those guys, personally.

 

Related to that, am I the only one who thinks the SF pick could very easily be a top-10 pick? People seem to forget SF barely made the playoffs with LA gifting them the game in the second half of their final game and then they went on a cinderella run. Add in the fact that they will be trotting out what is basically a rookie QB.

I don't think they've made any significant improvements to their team but lost some good veteran players like Laken Tomlinson, Mostert, Arden Key, DJ JOnes and are faced with the possibility of losing Deebo (i don't see it happening personally). Their first pick this draft was in the late 2nd and they grabbed Drake Jackson.

I also think they have a pretty tough schedule going against DEN, LARx2, KC, LAC, ARIx2, MIA, TB, LV.  

IF Tua falters I can see Bridgewater or Baker Mayfield being the guy in Miami next season, unpopular with some, but he will be more cost effective (more likely in the "prove it" range) and cost no draft capital to get. Jimmy G may be that guy as well though I think he has a new home before then. 

You are right though any QB rumor, Miami will be thrown in. (even if Tua plays well, the talking heads love to bash him or agents trying to create leverage)

   

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On 5/15/2022 at 2:46 PM, FinSting said:

Melvin Ingram signing with Dolphins, and Chargers are on the schedule? Muhaha

That's a really solid signing at this stage in the game.  Another pressure guy to add to the rotation and a solid vet presence.  1 year, $5 million is really reasonable as well.

18 hours ago, Tetsujin said:

I’ve been thinking the same thing. 

I agree that SF isn't the guaranteed playoff contender that most seem to think they are.  Lance could absolutely bomb, but the running game and defense is solid enough to where I'm not sure I see a path where they are top 10.  I see them around that 15 pick range, honestly.  

17 hours ago, Phinsesq said:

IF Tua falters I can see Bridgewater or Baker Mayfield being the guy in Miami next season, unpopular with some, but he will be more cost effective (more likely in the "prove it" range) and cost no draft capital to get. Jimmy G may be that guy as well though I think he has a new home before then. 

You are right though any QB rumor, Miami will be thrown in. (even if Tua plays well, the talking heads love to bash him or agents trying to create leverage)

   

If Tua falls on his face this year, the next QB would have to be on a reasonable deal with how the roster is currently constructed.  That's why a 2023 rookie seems to be the most likely in this hypothetical to me.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I just saw that we’re projected to be nearly 24M over the cap in 2023. If Gesicki gets extended, we have no priority free agents next offseason, IMO. I’m unsure if that 24M includes present rollover.

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16 hours ago, Tetsujin said:

I just saw that we’re projected to be nearly 24M over the cap in 2023. If Gesicki gets extended, we have no priority free agents next offseason, IMO. I’m unsure if that 24M includes present rollover.

It doesn't include the rollover, which is around $18 million right now.  Spotrac is also using a projected cap number that looks low.  I think I read that they expect it to be closer to $225 million in 2023, rather than the $218 that Spotrac is using.  They will have to jettison some players (Chase Edmonds saves $6 million, Cethan Carter saves $2 million; etc) to afford the likely large rookie class, but it won't be bad.

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23 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

It doesn't include the rollover, which is around $18 million right now.  Spotrac is also using a projected cap number that looks low.  I think I read that they expect it to be closer to $225 million in 2023, rather than the $218 that Spotrac is using.  They will have to jettison some players (Chase Edmonds saves $6 million, Cethan Carter saves $2 million; etc) to afford the likely large rookie class, but it won't be bad.

I wouldn't let it be a concern, the way these teams manipulate the cap. New Orleans was what, 100million in the hole prior to FA and ended up fine. Miami has shown the ability and willingness to engage in cap gymnastics. One would think eventually the loop holes would be closed, but then again who is complaining?  

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39 minutes ago, Phinsesq said:

I wouldn't let it be a concern, the way these teams manipulate the cap. New Orleans was what, 100million in the hole prior to FA and ended up fine. Miami has shown the ability and willingness to engage in cap gymnastics. One would think eventually the loop holes would be closed, but then again who is complaining?  

The one issue I see is that our biggest contracts are also our most recent contracts, either new or restructured, so I’m wondering how viable a restructuring this season would be.

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51 minutes ago, Tetsujin said:

The one issue I see is that our biggest contracts are also our most recent contracts, either new or restructured, so I’m wondering how viable a restructuring this season would be.

They will likely convert salary to signing bonus, which players like because they get that money immediately rather than on a pay schedule, and reduces the cap hit by spreading the signing bonus out over the contract, they can also add voidable years to the end of the contract to further reduce the hit. I think they are in good shape especially if they carry over, though I would like to see them spend money on JC Tretter.

Things will become far more "concerning" if Tua shows he can be a franchise QB, even then that bridge to cross is 3 seasons out with the 5th year option being available. I would welcome the problem for an actual franchise QB though. 

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PFN 2023 mock. Was able to trade a couple times:

18. EDGE Nolan Smith, UGA - great value here. He could easily be a Top 10 pick. AVG is a free agent after this season. It’d be nice to have him for depth if resigned.

27. RB Bijan Robinson, Texas - also could go Top 10. A Cadillac of running backs. He could also be a starting WR for numerous college teams.

52. DT Bryan Breese, Clemson - 6’6” former #1 HS recruit. Not sure if he’d be here. Scouts seem to be split on him. Seen him mocked Top 10.

74. iOL Ricky Stromberg, Arkansas - experience at OG and OC.

78. QB Grayson McCall, Charleston - could be a first rounder. Even if Tua plays well, he might not be worth the big contract QBs get.

85. OT Zion Nelson, The U - a solid OT prospect to hopefully take over RT competently 

111. DB Antonio Johnson, TAMU - big athletic safety prospect who some project to CB like Jalen Ramsey. I’ve seen him projected in the first round.

121. CB Riley Moss, Iowa - a nice depth CB. Very productive.

212. P Michael Turk, Oklahoma- Matt Turks’s nephew. The top P prospect.

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On 6/8/2022 at 7:24 AM, Tetsujin said:

PFN 2023 mock. Was able to trade a couple times:

18. EDGE Nolan Smith, UGA - great value here. He could easily be a Top 10 pick. AVG is a free agent after this season. It’d be nice to have him for depth if resigned.

27. RB Bijan Robinson, Texas - also could go Top 10. A Cadillac of running backs. He could also be a starting WR for numerous college teams.

52. DT Bryan Breese, Clemson - 6’6” former #1 HS recruit. Not sure if he’d be here. Scouts seem to be split on him. Seen him mocked Top 10.

74. iOL Ricky Stromberg, Arkansas - experience at OG and OC.

78. QB Grayson McCall, Charleston - could be a first rounder. Even if Tua plays well, he might not be worth the big contract QBs get.

85. OT Zion Nelson, The U - a solid OT prospect to hopefully take over RT competently 

111. DB Antonio Johnson, TAMU - big athletic safety prospect who some project to CB like Jalen Ramsey. I’ve seen him projected in the first round.

121. CB Riley Moss, Iowa - a nice depth CB. Very productive.

212. P Michael Turk, Oklahoma- Matt Turks’s nephew. The top P prospect.

It's always so tough to do mock drafts right now.  We have no idea who is going to show up this year and who is going to fall flat.  Would love this draft if all these guys actually fell this far, and that is coming from something who does not want a RB in the 1st round ever.

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