2021 Reflections, 2022 Strategies

[NYRaider]

This was my first year playing fantasy football in years and I've had a blast. I've learned a ton about players from around the league and I cannot wait to play again next year, can't believe we're already done. 

Some of my biggest lessons learned: 

• RB's that are non-factors in the passing game are not really worth drafting high or even rostering at all unless they're just absolutely dominant. 

• Sell high on RB's who have been good for consecutive years and have huge workloads early on because they're likely to taper off as the year progresses. 

• Even the best WR's in the league are not worth a huge investment unless they have very strong QB play. 

• Going TE early is definitely the way to go because it gives you such a huge advantage throughout the season. 

Some of my favorite players heading into 2022 that I will definitely be targeting in my drafts: 

• Mark Andrews - I think he'll be in the TE1 conversation next year along with George Kittle. 

• Javonte Williams - Melvin Gordon is a free agent so he should become a 3-down work horseback. 

• Trey Lance - I think he'll fall down boards just like Jalen Hurts did this year but can potentially be a league winning player with his rushing upside. 

• George Kittle - For a potential Lance stack. 

• Allen Robinson - Had an extremely down year but there were so many factors at play, if he lands in a good situation I think he's a prime candidate for a breakout season. 

• D'Andre Swift - PPR monster that should have an even bigger role for the Lions next season. 

• Kadarius Toney - Flashed elite potential but injuries, covid, and inconsistent QB play really limited his production. 

• Tony Pollard - Looked like the better back for Dallas this year and should see an expanded role next season.

• Michael Thomas - Ideally the Saints QB situation is better next year but I think he's a guy who could be a great value pick if he slips in the draft. 

[Humble_Beast]

16 hours ago, NYRaider said:

This was my first year playing fantasy football in years and I've had a blast. I've learned a ton about players from around the league and I cannot wait to play again next year, can't believe we're already done. 

Some of my biggest lessons learned: 

• RB's that are non-factors in the passing game are not really worth drafting high or even rostering at all unless they're just absolutely dominant. 

• Sell high on RB's who have been good for consecutive years and have huge workloads early on because they're likely to taper off as the year progresses. 

• Even the best WR's in the league are not worth a huge investment unless they have very strong QB play. 

• Going TE early is definitely the way to go because it gives you such a huge advantage throughout the season. 

Some of my favorite players heading into 2022 that I will definitely be targeting in my drafts: 

• Mark Andrews - I think he'll be in the TE1 conversation next year along with George Kittle. 

• Javonte Williams - Melvin Gordon is a free agent so he should become a 3-down work horseback. 

• Trey Lance - I think he'll fall down boards just like Jalen Hurts did this year but can potentially be a league winning player with his rushing upside. 

• George Kittle - For a potential Lance stack. 

• Allen Robinson - Had an extremely down year but there were so many factors at play, if he lands in a good situation I think he's a prime candidate for a breakout season. 

• D'Andre Swift - PPR monster that should have an even bigger role for the Lions next season. 

• Kadarius Toney - Flashed elite potential but injuries, covid, and inconsistent QB play really limited his production. 

• Tony Pollard - Looked like the better back for Dallas this year and should see an expanded role next season.

• Michael Thomas - Ideally the Saints QB situation is better next year but I think he's a guy who could be a great value pick if he slips in the draft. 

I like all those targets; I'll add 

• J Burrow- I think he makes that MVP jump in year 3
• Chase and Waddle are going be stars, and I think Chase could be the best WR in the NFL sooner than later 
• Dawson Knox is solid TE 
• interested to see what coach is brought in for Fields 
• Ettienne could be a sleeper, but need to see the new coach 
• St Brown, Palmer, and Elijah Moore should be solid mid round pickups 
• I'm going try hard to get Kyle Pitts in the 3rd. the man is literally a WR who is a TE. He can be TE1 next year, might even be a 2nd rounder 

[squire12]

17 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Some of my biggest lessons learned: 

• RB's that are non-factors in the passing game are not really worth drafting high or even rostering at all unless they're just absolutely dominant. 

All depends on the scoring.   Non ppr, passing RB's don't offer nearly as much.  

17 hours ago, NYRaider said:

• Sell high on RB's who have been good for consecutive years and have huge workloads early on because they're likely to taper off as the year progresses. 

Depends on the return.  RB's are so valuable and with the injury rate, can't have too many if them.

17 hours ago, NYRaider said:

• Even the best WR's in the league are not worth a huge investment unless they have very strong QB play. 

WR is so deep, get a couple solid #1 types.  Then grab a few later in the draft.  Depth at RB is so critical 

17 hours ago, NYRaider said:

• Going TE early is definitely the way to go because it gives you such a huge advantage throughout the season. 

Get a top 3 to 5 TE, or wait a throw a few darts.

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

All depends on the scoring.   Non ppr, passing RB's don't offer nearly as much.  

Depends on the return.  RB's are so valuable and with the injury rate, can't have too many if them.

I only play PPR and I'm going to win my main league with Swift, Jamal Williams, Javonte Williams, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Jeff Wilson at RB. Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Stefon Diggs at WR.

[Dr LBC]

On 12/26/2021 at 1:39 AM, NYRaider said:

This was my first year playing fantasy football in years and I've had a blast. I've learned a ton about players from around the league and I cannot wait to play again next year, can't believe we're already done. 

Some of my biggest lessons learned: 

• RB's that are non-factors in the passing game are not really worth drafting high or even rostering at all unless they're just absolutely dominant. 

• Sell high on RB's who have been good for consecutive years and have huge workloads early on because they're likely to taper off as the year progresses. 

 

 

Some of my favorite players heading into 2022 that I will definitely be targeting in my drafts: 

• Mark Andrews - I think he'll be in the TE1 conversation next year along with George Kittle. 

• Javonte Williams - Melvin Gordon is a free agent so he should become a 3-down work horseback. 

• Trey Lance - I think he'll fall down boards just like Jalen Hurts did this year but can potentially be a league winning player with his rushing upside. 

• George Kittle - For a potential Lance stack. 

• Allen Robinson - Had an extremely down year but there were so many factors at play, if he lands in a good situation I think he's a prime candidate for a breakout season. 

• D'Andre Swift - PPR monster that should have an even bigger role for the Lions next season. 

• Kadarius Toney - Flashed elite potential but injuries, covid, and inconsistent QB play really limited his production. 

• Tony Pollard - Looked like the better back for Dallas this year and should see an expanded role next season.

• Michael Thomas - Ideally the Saints QB situation is better next year but I think he's a guy who could be a great value pick if he slips in the draft. 

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• Even the best WR's in the league are not worth a huge investment unless they have very strong QB play. 

To a degree, I definitely agree.  I think it's more a case of increasing the premium on the WR's who have demonstrated consistency and have strong QB play..  Hand in hand with this is tempering the willingness to put a premium on the guys perceived to be the new hotness.  As an example, we saw Mike Evans taking a hit in ADP thanks to guys like Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, and Terry McLaurin making jumps ahead of him.  Now Ridley, no one really could have seen his personal issues coming and he was productive-ish before they rose, but a lot of people just assumed that no Julio meant Ridley was going to ascend to that Julio tier (and he did have the TD numbers the year prior - albeit with Julio opposite him).  Jefferson had the strongest case (same QB, same offensive system, dynamic rushing attack to draw safeties in), but the writing was on the wall for McLaurin and we should have seen it, especially when it comes to valuation over a guy like Evans who (regardless of QB) had consistently shown that in any season he didn't finish on the IR he hit the 1000 yard receiving mark.

Projecting forward and looking at who the likely new hotness prospects in 2022 at WR, we're probably looking at Pittman, Chase, Waddle, and probably Deebo.  And by this I mean the R2/early R3 guys that people are looking at hoping they're able to get a weekly WR1 while still being able to go RB in R1 and possibly even RB in R2.  Chase is going to be the safest of the four, IMO.  Deebo will still carry the injury concerns, but he's tailor-made for the Shanahan system and shown chemistry with both of either likely starting QB (Lance or Jimmy).  Waddle's value is strong IMO, but it's also mercurial based on Tua staying healthy (he's a safety valve for Tua that we can't be certain he'll be for a different QB, barring Deshaun Watson because he's a carbon copy of the kind of receiver Watson has lit it up with so he'll still carry strong floor in that instance).  Pittman is the one I go back and forth on quite a bit.  Wentz funnels the ball to his favorite target and the OL should be healthy/improved next season.  That said, he's also struggled some for consistency (kind of reminds me in terms of consistency of Tyler Lockett - his highs are amazing, his lows leave you limp).

We can safely project Cooper Kupp to jump into back of R1 selection next year* along with Jefferson.  Depending on where Davante ends up (and assuming it's wherever Rodgers is), they're likely 1a and 1b options for the folks that miss out on the elite RB's and Davante (and probably still Hopkins).

*I'm speaking to 12-team or larger leagues because anything less isn't sporting and is for wussies.

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• Going TE early is definitely the way to go because it gives you such a huge advantage throughout the season. 

This one is interesting for me.  Because I feel like what bit me in the butt the most this season in my big money league was sinking an early 3rd into Waller because the TE parity didn't look great.  And the value of the Top 3-4 was just head and shoulders above the rest.  Reflecting fairly, part of that was I just made the wrong choice of guy and you can't project the absence of Gruden causing such a stark difference in his ability to targets into actual yards and scores.  That said, I'm seeing more emergent TE's that are still very capably productive that I'm feeling safe in a return to my Travis Kelce at quality value or be fine waiting/streaming approach.  Pitts will improve next year, really he just needs to notch those end zone trips more.  Jury's a bit out on Hockenson for me.  I expect Gronk to retire (again) before Brady does, and added opportunity should make Cameron Brate (and maybe even OJ Howard?) viable.  Cole Kmet is a likely sleeper TE in PPR formats next season.  Dawson Knox is a weekly dependable in the way that Hunter Henry was when he was on the Chargers; same can be said for Dalton Schultz.  Speaking of the later, I'd bet good money that Tom Telesco (assuming he keeps his job, which with Spanos is likely) investing a Day 1 or Day 2 pick into the TE position - though, admittedly I haven't looked a ton at the 2022 TE draft class.  Irv Smith is a sleeper for me, personally, even with him coming off the injury.  I also wouldn't be surprised (it's very un-Packers-like of them, but they may realize the need to establish some new paradigms if it means keeping Rodgers) to see Green Bay get Aaron an athletic TE early (the system utilizes them quite a bit, Adams pull double-coverage a lot, and it's a "weapon" without going all-in on a R1 WR).

Unless they've shown a consistent reliance on the player though, I'm going to be similarly wary of TE's with not-great QB's as I am with young WR1's.  So, maybe just me, but I'm fading Goedert (the least of any in this mix, but fading still), Trautman, Freiermuth (this pains me, but Ben's body is shot... and he's still the best QB on that roster even in the state he's in), and Fant.

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, Dr LBC said:

 

The difference between having someone like Mark Andrews/Travis Kelce in comparison to having any of the other TE's is substantial and gives you such a huge advantage week in and week out because they just have such a huge target share and get red zone targets. 

Waddle still received a ton of targets even when Brissett played for the Dolphins this year so I think he's a safe bet to be productive next year regardless, especially in PPR formats. He's going to set the rookie record for most catches in a season despite missing a game and playing with a backup QB for a portion of the season. 

Guys that I want next year...

QB - Trey Lance

RB - Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, Antonio Gibson, JK Dobbins 

WR - Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, Kadarius Toney, Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson

TE - Mark Andrews, George Kittle

[Dr LBC]

12 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The difference between having someone like Mark Andrews/Travis Kelce in comparison to having any of the other TE's is substantial and gives you such a huge advantage week in and week out because they just have such a huge target share and get red zone targets. 

Waddle still received a ton of targets even when Brissett played for the Dolphins this year so I think he's a safe bet to be productive next year regardless, especially in PPR formats. He's going to set the rookie record for most catches in a season despite missing a game and playing with a backup QB for a portion of the season. 

Guys that I want next year...

QB - Trey Lance

RB - Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, Antonio Gibson, JK Dobbins 

WR - Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, Kadarius Toney, Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson

TE - Mark Andrews, George Kittle

I'm oddly a bit guarded on Kittle.  I'm also perfectly ready to be wrong on him, but if Trey becomes what they want him to be (a Josh Allen/Herbert/Mahomes type), I don't know how much he's going to necessarily adhere to Lil Shanny's gameplans as people might like.  I believe, and @Forge or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, Kyle's practically outright admitted that he gameplans to feature one particular player in the offense each time - typically based on mismatches that he sees with the opposition.  Deebo tends to not be as affected by this because he's a YAC monster, which admittedly Kittle is too, but Jimmy is/was consistently predictable: He would do whatever Kyle told him to.  Trey appears much more prone to improvisation.  So I won't be shocked if Kittle dips a bit in terms of week to week consistency.  Also, as we saw with Josh Allen when he was developing into the system, there's going to be a much greater temptation on Lance's part to just bootleg and then run it in himself from 10 yards out rather than go through a full progression of reads if his primary read isn't wide open.  I am kind of, similarly to you, expecting Kelce and Andrews to be in a league of their own next season, and wouldn't be shocked (if they can sort out their receiving corps so that he's not the primary, secondary, and tertiary concern to worry about blanketing in the red zone) if Pitts finishes the season with a better per-game fantasy points total than Kittle and Waller.

[NYRaider]

7 hours ago, Dr LBC said:

I'm oddly a bit guarded on Kittle.  I'm also perfectly ready to be wrong on him, but if Trey becomes what they want him to be (a Josh Allen/Herbert/Mahomes type), I don't know how much he's going to necessarily adhere to Lil Shanny's gameplans as people might like.  I believe, and @Forge or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, Kyle's practically outright admitted that he gameplans to feature one particular player in the offense each time - typically based on mismatches that he sees with the opposition.  Deebo tends to not be as affected by this because he's a YAC monster, which admittedly Kittle is too, but Jimmy is/was consistently predictable: He would do whatever Kyle told him to.  Trey appears much more prone to improvisation.  So I won't be shocked if Kittle dips a bit in terms of week to week consistency.  Also, as we saw with Josh Allen when he was developing into the system, there's going to be a much greater temptation on Lance's part to just bootleg and then run it in himself from 10 yards out rather than go through a full progression of reads if his primary read isn't wide open.  I am kind of, similarly to you, expecting Kelce and Andrews to be in a league of their own next season, and wouldn't be shocked (if they can sort out their receiving corps so that he's not the primary, secondary, and tertiary concern to worry about blanketing in the red zone) if Pitts finishes the season with a better per-game fantasy points total than Kittle and Waller.

I think Lance being a little under developed as a passer will lead to more targets for Kittle. Have to imagine that Shanny will scheme more easy throws for Lance over the middle of the field rather than asking him to push the ball down the field.

[NYRaider]

Obviously where they land will play a huge role but I love John Metchie, Jahan Dotson, Isaiah Spiller, and Kyren Williams next year. 

[Dr LBC]

8 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Obviously where they land will play a huge role but I love John Metchie, Jahan Dotson, Isaiah Spiller, and Kyren Williams next year. 

Trey McBride's fit in a WCO, particularly a Shanahan/Gruden-styled WCO is pretty crazy.  If he matches that fit and ends up with a better than average NFL starting QB throwing to him, he's got some legit rookie TE potential and Top 10 fantasy TE potential.

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

Trey McBride's fit in a WCO, particularly a Shanahan/Gruden-styled WCO is pretty crazy.  If he matches that fit and ends up with a better than average NFL starting QB throwing to him, he's got some legit rookie TE potential and Top 10 fantasy TE potential.

I want to join a dynasty league next year where we just draft rookies.

[Forge]

On 12/28/2021 at 5:38 PM, Dr LBC said:

I'm oddly a bit guarded on Kittle.  I'm also perfectly ready to be wrong on him, but if Trey becomes what they want him to be (a Josh Allen/Herbert/Mahomes type), I don't know how much he's going to necessarily adhere to Lil Shanny's gameplans as people might like.  I believe, and @Forge or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, Kyle's practically outright admitted that he gameplans to feature one particular player in the offense each time - typically based on mismatches that he sees with the opposition.  Deebo tends to not be as affected by this because he's a YAC monster, which admittedly Kittle is too, but Jimmy is/was consistently predictable: He would do whatever Kyle told him to.  Trey appears much more prone to improvisation.  So I won't be shocked if Kittle dips a bit in terms of week to week consistency.  Also, as we saw with Josh Allen when he was developing into the system, there's going to be a much greater temptation on Lance's part to just bootleg and then run it in himself from 10 yards out rather than go through a full progression of reads if his primary read isn't wide open.  I am kind of, similarly to you, expecting Kelce and Andrews to be in a league of their own next season, and wouldn't be shocked (if they can sort out their receiving corps so that he's not the primary, secondary, and tertiary concern to worry about blanketing in the red zone) if Pitts finishes the season with a better per-game fantasy points total than Kittle and Waller.

i don't now that he's ever said flat out that he does that, but he clearly does do that at time. I'm a niners fan and have never owned a share of Kittle since the 2018 season. He's far too up and down for me for that high of a pick. He had 2 games under 20 yards, 2 more under 30 yards and 6 total at 40 yards or less. Not only that, but you can also kind of pencil him in for missing a couple of games because he's going to get hurt. This year he also set a career high in TDs....with 6 lol.

I love Kittle but he can be a little bit of a misleading fantasy player week to week. He could certainly finish up there with Kelce and Andrews on any given season in terms of overall stats...and typically he will be on a per game basis (again, have to account for the missed time). I mean, on a per game basis he's only 10 yards less than Andrews (almost all of which came the last two weeks) and 3 yards less than Kelce for the season. But I don't like the week to week variance. 

[Dr LBC]

On 12/30/2021 at 11:45 AM, NYRaider said:

I want to join a dynasty league next year where we just draft rookies.

I don't love the leagues where all you draft is rookies.  Thus far, my favorite brand of dynasty is the one where we've got 7 keepers (so basically your starters - QB, WR1, WR2, RB1, RB2, TE, FLEX, if you choose to set up that way) all kept at auction/FAAB price plus an incremental annual premium, and then we do an auction draft to fill out rosters.  It takes a while for people to loosen up enough to be more open to trades, but at the very least you see people that are out of competition start looking towards setting up for next year late in seasons.  A recommendation for anyone that does this is to do what we do and have a booby prize/Sacko/punishment for whoever comes in last and to run consolation brackets all the way through, in order to keep people from completely tanking.  But it makes people start paying attention to who all are the pending real life free agents, who are the likely retirees (and as the knock-on from both, who stands to get increased opportunities from impending vacancies).

[NcFinest9erFan]

Where I picked #6, the correct answer was always Jonathan Taylor or Joe Mixon. Not Antoino Gibson.

I guess to be fair, Gibson would of been fine with Fitz didn't get hurt as he tends to check it down more often than Heinke.

In the end, I went with my heart and not my head.

My head told me the safe pick was JT but I truly believed Gibson was gonna be cmc 2.0.

Trading Kupp after week one for Darrell Henderson still stings me.

Its all hindsight but I should of moved Amari Cooper and not Kupp but oh well.

[NcFinest9erFan]

How does everyone feel about CMC or Barkley going into next year?

In redraft leagues, they'll probably come cheap but are the worth the risk?