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Way Too Early 2022 Keeper Thoughts


Sllim Pickens

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I know keepers depend a lot of free agent signings, the draft and injuries, but also fun to look at now and see how your keeper choices change. 

I don't have to set mine until the end of August for my money 16 team keeper league but have some solid options.  In this league, you can keep up to 2 players and they can't be the same position.  Players must be drafted after the third round and they cost the pick in the round you drafted them.  You can keep for a maximum of 2 years with the second year pick bumping up 2 rounds. Here is what I am looking at for keepers. 

RB - JK Dobbins for a 10th round pick

WR - Deebo Samuel for a 6th round pick
WR - Mike Williams for an 8th round pick
WR - Amon-Ra St Brown for an 11th round pick.

IDP - TJ Watt for a 13th round pick

My league starts a QB, 2 WR/RB, 2 WR/TE, K, Def, IDP.  As of now I am planning on keeping Dobbins as long as recovery goes well but if not, I would keep Watt as I don't have any other RBs worthy of keeping, my QB was drafted in Round 3 and I can't keep 2 WRs.  As of now I would probably keep Deebo but Amon-Ra St Brown is making a case to be kept.  The last 5 weeks he has been 10th highest scoring player including QBs.  It will depend on injuries, the draft and free agency to see how much we add at WR in Detroit but he definitely made a case and carried me to a championship.  

 

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4 hours ago, RTTRUTH said:

Deebo looks like the no-brainer.

Then it’s Dobbins vs Watt for the other spot. Kind of up to you. Depends a bit on your understanding of the other keepers. Like if 14 of the other 15 teams keep an RB it might force you to lean Dobbins

Yeah, the variance in terms of what you can get as a replacement in the draft between Dobbins vs another RB2 (which he should comfortably be as long as Greg Roman remains the Baltimore OC) with an extra 6th round pick (which you'd have to spend... or higher most likely, in order to fill the void) compared to Watt versus another IDP plus an extra 13th rounder is pretty staggering.  Is Watt outstanding?  Yes.  Can you get something similar-if-slightly-lesser to his production at IDP later in most drafts?  Absolutely.  Defenses, kickers, and IDP's don't even enter the conversation for me for keepers.  If I'm not in a playoff race in a dynasty league, I'm typically dumping my defense and kicker to create extra bench space for speculative adds on other potentially keeper-worthy skill position players that could be of greater scarcity (it's not just about keeping them yourself sometimes, it's about keeping other people in your league from being able to keep them).

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To the other guys on Slim's potential keepers though:

I don't see Mike Williams, at least right now, as being a great one.  For the moment, entirely too much depends on where he ends up after free agency, but look no further than Kenny Golladay for how quickly someone of his particular skillset at receiver can see their ROI plummet.  Deebo is probably the safest, but Deebo does come with his injury risk, and the sample-size we have thus far of Lance and his preference for WR's in San Francisco is fairly even with a slight Deebo-lean right now (Deebo has gotten the longballs consistently, but Aiyuk and he have had pretty even splits on the red zone targets and successes).  St. Brown is someone you'll likely be able to draft again if you really like him, and maybe you have to spend a round or two earlier than your keeper value would have been on him, but his likelihood of hitting the floor that Deebo gives you isn't great.

Honestly, game-theorying this out, the strong bet, in my opinion, would be to keep Deebo with the potential that this may be the only year you do keep him, and angle as best you can to get Lance in the 4th or later (barring a run on QB's, he's likely safe to hold no higher ADP than Dak had this past year and probably closer to the ADP of Hurts, particularly with guys like Burrow, Hurts, and Dak going off and likely to be kept if able in your league).  That stack can be beneficial both for the fantasy season of the present and, potentially, also give you at least 1 season of Lance as a keeper where he'll return additional points with his legs on your scoreboard.

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1 PT PPR with half a point per carry. Every ten yard REC or Rush is one point. All TDs are six.

Also: Every third year, we also allow teams to play the keeper lottery.

Throw your keeper back into the pool and enter a keeper lottery.

We do a random list of those who chose to and they in sort do a mini draft to pick their new keepers.

Just looking at it right now, I think the big prize going back into the pool is Alvin Kamara.

Javonte Williams is another name but If Gordon leaves and Den gets a new QB, The owner who has him has stated he will keep Javonte. 

The owner who has Kamara, is leaning towards keep Kupp. 

So I have three options: Nick Chubb, Ja'Marr Chase or play the lottery.

Edited by NcFinest9erFan
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On 1/4/2022 at 9:03 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

I know keepers depend a lot of free agent signings, the draft and injuries, but also fun to look at now and see how your keeper choices change. 

I don't have to set mine until the end of August for my money 16 team keeper league but have some solid options.  In this league, you can keep up to 2 players and they can't be the same position.  Players must be drafted after the third round and they cost the pick in the round you drafted them.  You can keep for a maximum of 2 years with the second year pick bumping up 2 rounds. Here is what I am looking at for keepers. 

RB - JK Dobbins for a 10th round pick

WR - Deebo Samuel for a 6th round pick
WR - Mike Williams for an 8th round pick
WR - Amon-Ra St Brown for an 11th round pick.

IDP - TJ Watt for a 13th round pick

My league starts a QB, 2 WR/RB, 2 WR/TE, K, Def, IDP.  As of now I am planning on keeping Dobbins as long as recovery goes well but if not, I would keep Watt as I don't have any other RBs worthy of keeping, my QB was drafted in Round 3 and I can't keep 2 WRs.  As of now I would probably keep Deebo but Amon-Ra St Brown is making a case to be kept.  The last 5 weeks he has been 10th highest scoring player including QBs.  It will depend on injuries, the draft and free agency to see how much we add at WR in Detroit but he definitely made a case and carried me to a championship.  

 

Going Dobbins and Samuel here. Dobbins looked poised for a big year especially with the way they were using him on third downs/passing down before the knee.

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13 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

1 PT PPR with half a point per carry. Every ten yard REC or Rush is one point. All TDs are six.

Also: Every third year, we also allow teams to play the keeper lottery.

Throw your keeper back into the pool and enter a keeper lottery.

We do a random list of those who chose to and they in sort do a mini draft to pick their new keepers.

Just looking at it right now, I think the big prize going back into the pool is Alvin Kamara.

Javonte Williams is another name but If Gordon leaves and Den gets a new QB, The owner who has him has stated he will keep Javonte. 

The owner who has Kamara, is leaning towards keep Kupp. 

So I have three options: Nick Chubb, Ja'Marr Chase or play the lottery.

Honestly I think it has to be Chubb. Top 3 OL and he’s so good.
Chase is my second choice but I’m thinking WR is a little deeper. More weekly fluctuation too.

 

No consideration for the lottery 

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On 1/5/2022 at 10:51 AM, NcFinest9erFan said:

1 PT PPR with half a point per carry. Every ten yard REC or Rush is one point. All TDs are six.

Also: Every third year, we also allow teams to play the keeper lottery.

Throw your keeper back into the pool and enter a keeper lottery.

We do a random list of those who chose to and they in sort do a mini draft to pick their new keepers.

Just looking at it right now, I think the big prize going back into the pool is Alvin Kamara.

Javonte Williams is another name but If Gordon leaves and Den gets a new QB, The owner who has him has stated he will keep Javonte. 

The owner who has Kamara, is leaning towards keep Kupp. 

So I have three options: Nick Chubb, Ja'Marr Chase or play the lottery.

I'd keep Chase.  Chubb is good but does have other backs there and doesn't seem to stay healthy.  Chase is a top 5 keeper in a lot of rankings ( I have seen him as #1 on a couple sites) going into next year while Chubb is in the 15-20 range and knowing RBs, they fall off after 5 years so Chubb really only has 1/2 more years of top end production IMO.  The .5 per carry does make it close at least, but I still think I would rather have Chase.  

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  • 3 months later...
On 1/11/2022 at 3:09 PM, Sllim Pickens said:

I'd keep Chase.  Chubb is good but does have other backs there and doesn't seem to stay healthy.  Chase is a top 5 keeper in a lot of rankings ( I have seen him as #1 on a couple sites) going into next year while Chubb is in the 15-20 range and knowing RBs, they fall off after 5 years so Chubb really only has 1/2 more years of top end production IMO.  The .5 per carry does make it close at least, but I still think I would rather have Chase.  

I want to revisit this since the Browns now have Watson at QB.

Are you still leaning Chase > Chubb?

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2 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

I want to revisit this since the Browns now have Watson at QB.

Are you still leaning Chase > Chubb?

Probably.  We don't know when Watson will play.  If he is suspended half the year than Chubb takes a big hit.  Also I just dont like RBs longer term.  The half PPRush is intriguing, as it boosts value for RBs but being in a committee, I still am hesitant on keeping Chubb over Chase.  What were their scores like in your league last year? In most formats, Chase was a top 5 fantasy scorer but I am guessing the half point per rush bumped a few guys ahead of him like Najee, Mixon, etc.  Chubb looks to be pretty close if you add 100 points for rushes. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 4/20/2022 at 11:34 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

Probably.  We don't know when Watson will play.  If he is suspended half the year than Chubb takes a big hit.  Also I just dont like RBs longer term.  The half PPRush is intriguing, as it boosts value for RBs but being in a committee, I still am hesitant on keeping Chubb over Chase.  What were their scores like in your league last year? In most formats, Chase was a top 5 fantasy scorer but I am guessing the half point per rush bumped a few guys ahead of him like Najee, Mixon, etc.  Chubb looks to be pretty close if you add 100 points for rushes. 

Chase and Chubb finished with pretty much the same amount of points BUT that was with the three missed games.

17 game pace, he would of scored 400 total. 

As much as I like Chubb, it gets annoying when they are losing and he doesn't see the field. 

Chase was a top five WR and Chubb finished Top 12. 

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