Pass me that wrench: Fixing the D in 2022

[vike daddy]

Through 16 games this season, the Minnesota Vikings have the 31st ranked overall total defense in the league and can take the top spot if Chicago racks up yardage in the season finale.

Minnesota invested a lot in their defensive line that saw teams be able to run the ball at will against them, picking up 4.7 yards per carry (30th), 126 rushing first downs (27th), and a total of 2132 yards (27th).

The pass defense hasn’t been good either. Minnesota allows 7.5 yards per attempt (26th), 4,034 passing yards (26th), and 28 passing touchdowns (29th).

https://thevikingage.com/2022/01/05/minnesota-vikings-questions-2022-offseason/6/

 

whaddya think we oughtta do about da D...?

[vike daddy]

Danielle Hunter is set to make $26.12M next season while releasing him would only incur a cap penalty of $7.48M if he is let go before the fifth league day of 2022. Saving $18.64M in cap would be huge, but it would also be getting rid of the team’s best pass rusher.

The defense needs to generate a pass rush in 2022. This is especially true since three of the team’s top four corners on the depth chart either have contracts expiring this year or have already been released from the team.

With salary cap being such a tough situation for the Vikings this year, trying to trade Hunter has to be an option that is explored. If that fails, releasing him becomes an option. Either way, there is really no good solution to this problem and will likely be one of the toughest player decisions made this offseason.

https://thevikingage.com/2022/01/05/minnesota-vikings-questions-2022-offseason/8/

[RpMc]

First and foremost, the edge needs to be solidified. No one on the current roster, Hunter included, has shown they can be relied upon for the balance of the season, and it’s the position that can best impact the run and pass defense if you get yourself a good one. 
 

we need another starting caliber linebacker with Barr likely out the door, and the secondary is going to be more than a one year fix, but you can make due with more average secondary talent if you can consistently impact the QB as the article points out. 

Edited January 6, 2022 by RpMc
Best not beat

[Ozzy]

It is crazy with how much promise the defense had.

 

But you take Dalvin Tomlinson who has wildly disappointed this year, has not been great against the run and has not provided near the pass rush I thought he could have.  Outside of that game against the Rams where he got two deflections that impacted the game a lot, he generally has not impacted many games at all this year, and gets 2 years $20+ mil, than goodness it is not a longer deal than that.

Michael Pierce outside of that Bengals game where he was great, he has not been much and has been hurt over half the year so he is clearly a big disappointment.

Danielle Hunter is obvious super star but hurt again which greatly hurt the D, they got do some things with him and without him not so much.  Everson Griffen the same thing, sadly the 2nd best pass rusher on the team arguably and he has been out and now is known in having Bipolar disorder so who knows his long term future.

Patrick Peterson has been good but clearly probably will not be brought back.  He was not tested much but that is because the other corner opposite him got beat constantly.  Breeland, almost forgot about him, he at least put up a fight but was a terrible corner overall and got beat constantly not to mention Mac Alexander who has been nothing special since we brought him back.

 

 

Oh and obviously Jeff Gladney gone hurt the team, good talented young player but made a huge mistake and his career could be over because of it.  Boyd has been really bad when out as a starting corner and Hand rarely gets on the field for whatever reason.  Cam also has not been great, did flash recently but then got hurt again which he has a few times this year.

Jeff Gladney
Cam Dantzler
Kris Boyd
Harrison Hand

 

These three young linebackers did not do much at all, Dye barely played and when he did he did not do much.  Lynch was ok but nothing great and Surratt barely even saw the field which was a huge disappointment.  

Chaz Surratt
Troy Dye
Blake Lynch

 

Then these three promising rookies could not play at all because all were injured, all could have helped especially Twyman on interior pass rush, Scott when Pierce went down and Robinson obviously when Hunter went down.  

Janarius Robinson
Jaylen Twyman
Jordon Scott

 

 

Still you look at all the free agents they brought in, and basically none of them played great and all in some degree or another disappointed or were hurt a lot or were simply not that impactful.  

Dalvin Tomlinson
Patrick Peterson
Michael Pierce
Xavier Woods
Mac Alexander
Bashaud Breeland
 

 

For a defensive head coach that is this great defensive mind, yeah it is an absolutely awful defensive season.  1st in sacks but that was a few weeks ago, now they are like 6th in sacks.  Little to no production in that regard the last few games.  A lot of the guys were Zimmer guys, Harrison Smith, Barr, Kendricks, Hunter and Everson Griffen.  Clearly there time is up and so it Zimmers.  Also shows one cannot just throw a bunch of random vets together and think they can perform all at a high level all at the same time and all stay healthy.  

 

[Ozzy]

21 minutes ago, RpMc said:

First and foremost, the edge needs to be solidified. No one on the current roster, Hunter included, has shown they can be relied upon for the balance of the season, and it’s the position that can best impact the run and pass defense if you get yourself a good one. 
 

we need another starting caliber linebacker with Barr likely out the door, and the secondary is going to be more than a one year fix, but you can make due with more average secondary talent if you can consistently impact the QB as the article points out. 

Very true the DL needs to be address and one could argue DE and DT are totally in play.  But they did "impact" the QB most of the season, just up until a few weeks ago they were the league leader in sacks somehow.  That did not really do much in terms of not giving up yards or points though or impacted the QB either. 

Heck the Steelers who lead the league currently in sacks by a wide margin are 12th worst in the league in total yards given up per game, 2nd worst in rush yards all per game and 11th worst in total points allowed per game.

 

Easy to say impact the QB and get after them but it does not always work unless you have a very good secondary, your team plays complementary football and the defensive plays as a unit instead of just guys leaving others behind just to get the sack.

 

 

[RpMc]

23 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Very true the DL needs to be address and one could argue DE and DT are totally in play.  But they did "impact" the QB most of the season, just up until a few weeks ago they were the league leader in sacks somehow.  That did not really do much in terms of not giving up yards or points though or impacted the QB either. 

Heck the Steelers who lead the league currently in sacks by a wide margin are 12th worst in the league in total yards given up per game, 2nd worst in rush yards all per game and 11th worst in total points allowed per game.

 

Easy to say impact the QB and get after them but it does not always work unless you have a very good secondary, your team plays complementary football and the defensive plays as a unit instead of just guys leaving others behind just to get the sack.

 

 

Impacting the QB does not just mean sacks. Moving them off their spot, forcing them to drop their eyes from coverage. All part of complimentary football as you said.

The Vikings actually did a good job of “scheming” up sacks and taking advantage when they did put teams behind the chains; taking advantage of a higher than average percentage of those. But they were 29th in team pass rush win rate overall (32nd in run stop win rate - which explains why the Vikings weren’t able to put teams behind the chains enough; had the Vikings been able to do that, I’d expect our sack numbers to be even higher). 

[ArcticNorseman]

The more this season went on the more it became evident (maybe only to me) the nepotistic promotion of Adam Zimmer led to dysfunction, maybe even some revolt.

I have to say the D-Line was not the problem, not in pressure anyway.  Without stud starters, the team still led the league in sacks going into last week.  But, that 3rd down conversion rate, and the blatant inability to force 3rd down on so many drives tells me there was a lack of focus, or an exceptionally well-orchestrated demise.  It's easy to point the finger at Breeland and other CBs.  But it's more telling how the opponents run game chewed-up the LBs and Safeties.  How were there so many runs of 5+ yards . . . even when Pierce was in there?

Mike Zimmer, when stirring his favorite drink all week, historically calls a good defensive game.  The past 2 years . . . notta.  So, is that because everyone in the league figured him out?  Or, is that because some in the organization took offense to Zimm Jr getting nod instead of Andre' Patterson when George Edwards left?  

Edwards obviously was a good DC.  I think Patterson would have been much better had he been anointed the sole heir to DC, but here we are . . . To fix this mess, Adam could pull a Reid Jr and get tossed into jail, which would make the organization's decision easy.  Frankly, if they're a package deal now, they both need to go.  I'm even curious if George Edwards would return as HC and make Patterson DC?

I would definitely use some draft capital on CB.  More importantly, one would need to see what money games Hunter's playing.  If he wants $30M+ per year, he may be worth it, but ya gotta cut him loose.  Wonnum is playing good ball.  I think Jones and Robinson will be studs too.  I think you keep Pierce, Tomlinson, Richardson, Watts and Lynch as your 5 DTs (unless Richardson signs elsewhere).  Those 5 did well.  

Let Barr walk and draft a fast LB in Rd 2 or 3.  I think Dye, Vigil and Kendricks did an admirable job; although, Barr did make some splash plays recently -- like an audition, ya know?

I like the Safeties.  I like PP, Hand, Alexander and even Dantzler some.  But, this team needs a super-talented, long CB to match up as well as be that flex guy to move around when someone goes down due to injury.  

[PrplChilPill]

First round CB.... That's got to be the choice. There will be a good starter available there. 

If Hunter wants a higher salary, deal him. Even if he only wants twenty,I probably deal him for the right pick. 

 

[Ozzy]

9 hours ago, RpMc said:

Impacting the QB does not just mean sacks. Moving them off their spot, forcing them to drop their eyes from coverage. All part of complimentary football as you said.

The Vikings actually did a good job of “scheming” up sacks and taking advantage when they did put teams behind the chains; taking advantage of a higher than average percentage of those. But they were 29th in team pass rush win rate overall (32nd in run stop win rate - which explains why the Vikings weren’t able to put teams behind the chains enough; had the Vikings been able to do that, I’d expect our sack numbers to be even higher). 

Yeah that is right, I guess the sack numbers are clearly a little deceptive.  Here are the numbers I found for this season.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32176833/2021-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

 

Cleveland is on the OG list for run blocking win rate, O'Neill who was #1 last year I think or #2 is not on the list.  

 

The Chiefs success is nuts, have the #1 and #2 guards in pass blocking win rate and the #1 center.  

 

Also nuts Tom Compton is #1 in run blocking win rate as a OT even though he was a OG most of his career, I remember when he was in Minnesota and he was awful, clearly coaching matters.  

 

Vikings DL 4th worst in pass rush win rate as a team in the NFL and dead last in run stop win rate.  And they are 7th worst in pass blocking win rate and nuts again a few weeks back they gave up the least amount of sacks in the NFL which again is clearly a little BS and deceptive.  

[VikeManDan]

2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

The Chiefs success is nuts, have the #1 and #2 guards in pass blocking win rate and the #1 center. 

Was so envious they landed Humphrey and Smith. Took one off-season for them to rebuild their OL.

Anyways back to the defense.

How many snaps did Hunter, Pierce, and Tomlinson play together this year? Pulling a little information from https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=MIN&year=2021 and that number could be argued as 120 snaps (this is the total snaps played by Pierce weeks 1-4). Pierce out weeks 5-12, and 17. Tomlinson was out weeks 7 and 12, and Hunter out weeks 7, and 9-18. This DL hardly got anytime together unfortunately. I do however understand the potential arguments for Hunter/Pierce being injury prone.

I personally would prefer to hold onto this group and extend/restructure Hunter again if needed. Hunter's cap hit is a piddly $8.6M in 2023, there has to be a reasonable way to lower his 2022 cap hit. He appeared back to his old self before suffering the pec injury. Then again, a lot depends on the Cousins situation as well. Thankfully it seems there are quality/worthy prospects in the 2022 draft at each level of the defense this year where we'll be picking pick 7-15.

DL: George Karlaftis, Jordan Davis, David Ojabo (prefer to avoid if DL of Hunter, Pierce, and Tomlinson returns - plenty of promising depth on roster as well. Would understand either selection though.)

LB: Devin Lloyd and Nakobe (Are either worth a top 15 selection?)

CB: Derrick Stingley, Sauce Gardner, and Andrew Booth Jr. (Hopefully 1 is available when Vikings are OTC.) Elam and McCreary as well.

S: Kyle Hamilton (I imagine he'd be a no-brainer pick if he's there.)

[vikingsrule]

Only spots I’d dump meaningful resources into this year would be at CB and DE, assuming there isn’t a drastic change in scheme. Hunter is probably done. Wonnum is a bad starter, I’m fine with him as a 3rd DE. Really, we need a game changing edge and should be the highest draft priority. Might need to add a FA DE too. Not sure what to do with Hunter, honestly. No one else is really worth talking about as viable for the future. 

I think DT isn’t going to change yet, it’s not getting fixed all in one year. Tomlinsons deal is hard to get out of at this point and cutting Pierce isn’t ideal. Watts is a good young player to keep around. I’d look towards getting another DT to rotate in, maybe that player can be Lynch. I’m undecided on Richardson, he had some good moments just not sure we can afford him.
 

CB could use three new starters. If we’re spending free agent money outside the org, this is where it needs to be spent in addition to an early draft pick. I’m okay If Peterson wants to return, but we really need a high end starter next to him. Alexander needs to be replaced as slot CB. Dantzler, Boyd and Hand probably aren’t worth keeping around as anything higher than a 4th CB.  
 

Don’t really care about LB to replace Barr. Sign someone cheap and hope maybe one of the young guys emerge.

Again, with an offseason with limited resources, I’m more included to focus on the edge defense and CB in year one of the new regime (crossing fingers).

[vike daddy]

with all of our discussions about new coaches and GM's, which coaches and D coordinators out there could best revitalize our defense?

[swede700]

2 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

with all of our discussions about new coaches and GM's, which coaches and D coordinators out there could best revitalize our defense?

I still want either Jim Schwartz or someone affiliated with him, because that is the most similar style of defense to Zim's. 

 

[NoDakViking]

4 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

with all of our discussions about new coaches and GM's, which coaches and D coordinators out there could best revitalize our defense?

Fangio or Graham if you can get them.  They've also already interviewed Raheem Morris and Todd Bowles which should help.

[swede700]

I'm probably one of the few that really isn't all that interested in bringing Fangio in.  Love him, but I'd rather just keep Dre as the solo DC than consider bringing in Fangio.  If you're going to go with a 60+ yr old DC, I'd rather keep the guy that knows the system and the players in place to run it.