2022 Playoffs: Round One Chat

[biggie.]

Raiders fans: what's the scoop on y'all's defense? Really interested in putting money on them being +5.5.

[agarcia34]

3 hours ago, Johnny Nix said:

Losing Philon was big for them and Hankins has a back injury. They should be susceptible up through the middle. That game was before the Bengals passing game started to heat up. Taylor was trying to figure out who we were as an offense. I think he’s gonna let Joe throw and do his thing.  

Yeah the passing game has gotten a lot better for the Bengals since that game but they do love to attack deep and that requires time which in the first match up they didn’t have time which caused a lot of passes to be throw early or away. I think the Raiders would gladly live and dye with the Bengals trying to attack them deep cause that gives the front 4 a chance to get home and Crosby and Yannick had a field day doing so. Bengals showed in that match up that they didn’t know how to attack a cover 3. They didn’t take anything underneath and those easy 3 yard passes that can be for 10 yards. That’s what they need to do is go after those short routes to open up the deep stuff. Raiders one of the best at limiting the deep plays so you have to take the short stuff which they didn’t do. 
 

Bengals defense gave the Raiders WRs a lot of issues so gonna be interesting in seeing how they change that up. One thing the Bengals had no answer for is Waller. 
 

Both teams obviously playing better then what they did in the first match up. Gonna be a battle of cat and mouse. Interesting game 

[Mesa_Titan]

7 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Most likely projected starter, All-Pro, etc.

Like, losing Marcus Peters is going to hurt your team more than losing Rashad Weaver

So we don’t really know, and are taking it as gospel. Missed games, that is a fact. Missed quality of players overall. I’m gonna need some kind of (any really) information on how they determine that. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, Mesa_Titan said:

So we don’t really know, and are taking it as gospel. Missed games, that is a fact. Missed quality of players overall. I’m gonna need some kind of (any really) information on how they determine that. 

I'm just speculating. I clicked on the link but you have to login to view their methodology. Someone else can go into further detail but I seriously doubt they just threw together a vague "quality" term like this without a very detailed formula behind it.

Edited January 14, 2022 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[wackywabbit]

31 minutes ago, Mesa_Titan said:

What is the definition of how we’re determining quality?

AV is metric they are using. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

Of course there is no perfect way to measure that though.

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, biggie. said:

Raiders fans: what's the scoop on y'all's defense? Really interested in putting money on them being +5.5.

Maxx Crosby is very good 

[Mesa_Titan]

3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I'm just speculating. I clicked on the link but you have to login to view their methodology. Someone else can go into further detail but I seriously doubt they just threw together a vague "quality" term like this without a very detailed formula behind it.

Well yeah, I would assume so. I did the same as you and hit a paywall. I just don’t think they can do that accurately, it’s why I don’t really trust it. Sure you lose your LT, if he’s a really good player it’s a big blow, but what happens when you lose three LT’s? The bubble I assume isn’t going to get much bigger from the other two, but when you have Joe six pack at LT that’s a bigger deal to me than losing a starter with a competent back up in place.  

Edited January 14, 2022 by Mesa_Titan

[SkippyX]

2 minutes ago, Mesa_Titan said:

So we don’t really know, and are taking it as gospel. Missed games, that is a fact. Missed quality of players overall. I’m gonna need some kind of (any really) information on how they determine that. 

I'm going with King Henry, Julio Jones, and AJ Brown missing 19 combined games as one huge bubble.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

4 minutes ago, Mesa_Titan said:

Well yeah, I would assume so. I did the same as you and hit a paywall. I just don’t think they can do that accurately, it’s why I don’t really trust it. Sure you lose your LT, if he’s a really good player it’s a big blow, but what happens when you lose three LT’s? The bubble I assume isn’t going to get much bigger from the other two, but when you have Joe six pack at LT that’s a bigger deal to me than losing a starter with a competent back up in place.  

At some point the difference between your 2nd string LT and 4th string LT is negligible, but as always the difference between Marlon Humphrey and Kevon Seymour is astronomical.

And losing one player for a few games is whatever, losing your starters for the entire season is also a bigger blow.

[Forge]

I'm probably going chalk across the board. 

Tampa, Dallas, Rams

Bills, Chiefs, Bengals. 

The Dallas / 49ers game should be fun, but I think ultimately the 49ers will be unable to convert some third downs and probably shoot themselves in the foot with bad penalties and maybe a turnover or two. I think that will likely end up in the 30-20 range. 

I really like the Bengals / Raiders game for an upset possibility. I know the Bengals won comfortably in that first matchup, but just seems like a strange game overall and the Raiders were really burnt by penalties and it was just sort of disjointed all the way around. The Bengals won that game by basically grinding it out which I wouldn't really expect in this one. IF nothing else, I think the game plays out in a different rhythm this time. 

Would love to see the weather wreak havoc on the Tampa / Philly game. Would be a lot of fun to see something like that even the playing field a little more. I'm concerned about Tampa as I do believe the injuries have caught up with them, just not sure that Philly is talented enough as a team to take advantage. I am expecting Tampa to win this one (maybe not cleanly) and bow out in round 2. 

I just expect the Rams to beat the Cards. No crazy observations or anything, I just think they'll win the game. 

[Mesa_Titan]

8 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

AV is metric they are using. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

Of course there is no perfect way to measure that though.

Hm. Stat seems pretty Garbo. It takes into account their last for years?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, SkippyX said:

I'm going with King Henry, Julio Jones, and AJ Brown missing 19 combined games as one huge bubble.

And Ravens fans would say Ronnie Stanley, Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and Marcus Peters all missing every single game would be just as impactful.

Then throw in Marlon Humphrey, Nick Boyle, Deshon Elliott and Lamar Jackson missing 4+ games each and yeah idk what to tell ya. The Ravens have been just absolutely decimated by season-ending injuries this year to key players everywhere. We've also had guys like Calais Campbell, Brandon Wiliams, Patrick Mekari and numerous other starters all miss games due to COVID or injury, too.

[SkippyX]

5 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

AV is metric they are using. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

Of course there is no perfect way to measure that though.

AV has Josh Allen (19) as the best player in the NFL this year, FYI.

AV is also heavily based on games played.

• Rodgers 2021 is a 15
• Nick Foles 2013 was an 11.
• Brady 2016 was a 13
• Derek Carr 2020 was a 14 (16 games)

Aaron Donald was a 24 last year and a 12 this year???

 

Its not a good number to use this way.

[Mesa_Titan]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

And Ravens fans would say Ronnie Stanley, Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and Marcus Peters all missing every single game would be just as impactful.

Then throw in Marlon Humphrey, Nick Boyle, Deshon Elliott and Lamar Jackson missing 4+ games each and yeah idk what to tell ya. The Ravens have been just absolutely decimated by season-ending injuries this year to key players everywhere. We've also had guys like Calais Campbell, Brandon Wiliams, Patrick Mekari and numerous other starters all miss games due to COVID or injury, too.

Yeah, I mean I’m not really arguing with what the Ravens have missed. I’d say that got just as decimated by injuries as the Titans. Maybe a little more because Tannehill hasn’t been out at all. 

[wackywabbit]

Just now, SkippyX said:

AV has Josh Allen (19) as the best player in the NFL this year, FYI.

AV is also heavily based on games played.

• Rodgers 2021 is a 15
• Nick Foles 2013 was an 11.
• Brady 2016 was a 13
• Derek Carr 2020 was a 14 (16 games)

Aaron Donald was a 24 last year and a 12 this year???

 

Its not a good number to use this way.

Don't blame me, I didn't make it up.

I think pretty much any method to produce a number for this would be wildly imprecise.