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Hyde - Truth and Myth (134 MB)

skibrett15

By skibrett15
in Green Bay Packers

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skibrett15

skibrett15

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The Deal:

Buffalo signed hyde for a 5 year $30.5 M contract with an $8M bonus and $14M Guaranteed.  It has a potential out after 2019 with 3.2M dead cap and a savings of 800k, and an easier out after 2020 with 1.6M dead cap and savings of 2.4M.  This places Hyde as the 17th highest paid safety in the league -- right below guys like Glover Quinn, Morgan Burnett, Jonathan Cyprien and above George Iloka, Da'Norris Searcy, and Kurt Coleman.

Hyde was not offered a contract (or contacted about his FA status) by Green Bay.  Green Bay elected to go with their duo of Morgan Burnett and HHCD for 2017 and beyond, along with up and coming hitter Kentrell Brice as the third safety.  Ultimately, they would invest additional draft capital into 2nd rounder Josh Jones.

 

The Rumors:

General consensus here is pretty split.  Hyde and Hayward are simultaneously brought up by opposing opinions as guys who we "should have kept" and the common response is that they are guys 'we definitely didn't want to keep' and "weren't that good here".

Hyde has frequently been brought up as a guy who "isn't really making plays in buffalo, just getting tipped INTs and sexy stats" or "just picking off bad QBs like McCown". 

He's also been referred to as "an incredible safety for Buffalo who we were dumb to let go".  The reasons behind Hyde's success in Buf and relative failure here is ascribed to both talent of the player, usage of the player, and scheme of the defenses he plays in.

 

The INTs:

Here are each of Hydes 5 (NFL leading) Interceptions.  Yes, some are tipped balls.  No, they are not all tipped balls.  And yes, even the tipped balls are great plays by Hyde.

 

1) Week 1 vs McCown:

Vi8WAwQ.gif

This is a really great play by a safety in Tampa 2.  McCown reads the defense correctly, and knows there will be a spot between the deep safety and the corner where he can hit this corner route.  Unfortunately, no one is threatening Hyde deep, and he reads the QB, makes a really great break on the ball, and makes a nice catch.  Excellent safety play.

 

2) Week 4 vs Matt Ryan:

ylURoeK.gif

Oh MY.  Yes, this is a tipped ball. And Yes, this is still an amazing play and catch by Hyde.  This is 2 man coverage, and Hyde flies in from his deep spot to make an amazing play on the ball.  Ryan tries to force it in there a bit, and Hyde makes him pay with an incredible catch.

3) Week 4 vs Matt Ryan

HtTDedX.gif

What a play.  It's a PA bomb to taylor gabriel, who is just starting to run by Hyde as the ball goes up, but the route is so deep that Ryan can't lead Gabriel.  This is Cover 3 with Hyde as the deep middle.  Excellent play recognition and excellent play on the ball- high pointing it for the INT where gabriel has no chance.

4) Week 5 vs Dalton

eT0Nm56.gif

This is probably the weakest of the 5 INTs.  It's still a nice reaction, and Hyde is in good position to help out.  Cover 1 man concept with Hyde deep middle.  Nice catch, and this is no routine play since he is leaning left then breaks right and dives for the INT when the ball is tipped by AJ Green.  This shouldn't be an INT in that Dalton/Green can do better, but not many players are gonna make this play either.

5) Week 8 vs Carr

c7LzmI8.gif

This is technically a tipped ball also, but Hyde is breaking up this play regardless.  It's cover 2 zone with Hyde in the FS position.  This is a pretty dumb throw and a feather touch on a ball that's behind the receiver already before the tip.  Really nice break on the ball, and good awareness to complete the INT when his guy tips it.

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Acrid Josher

Acrid Josher

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These plays are interesting to look at, and useful for the debate on INTs specifically, but if we really want to evaluate a starting DB who might be expected to play 700-1200 snaps in a season, it just can't be done accurately by looking at a tiny handful of plays- even the most high impact ones. If we want the real Truth, then we need a more holistic look. How many big plays and blown coverages does a DB give up? How many blown assignments? How many loose coverages that allow a replacement DB wouldn't have? How is their run support? How many balls aren't thrown their way that otherwise would be with a different DB?

I'm not claiming I can answer these questions about Hyde, or that I know of anyone that can- just that it can be fallacious to judge an NFL player on only their best or worst plays.

I'm also not saying I don't appreciate the work you did to put these (and other similar posts) together @skibrett15 - I love this content from you- I just think the discussion we have needs to be tempered by the above considerations.

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skibrett15

skibrett15

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Clearly.  And that's kind of the point right?  Look as hard as you want at 5 plays and you're gonna see what you want to see.  It's been cropping up here and there over the past 4 weeks consistently.

 

If everything isn't so cut and dry about even the "impact" plays.  Also clear Hyde is playing a very diff position than he would be here.

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spilltray

spilltray

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The tipped ones are nice plays on the ball in the air but that's different from a pick in coverage.

 

Here is the question... Resigning Hyde means he'd have been either your third s or nickle cb. Is either worth that contract? Even as a S, wouldn't you rather Jones straight up? I would. 

 

He's a nice S but he'd be #3 here and he isn't worth close to that deal as a CB. He found a better fit and is capitalizing but keeping him still makes no sense.

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TheOnlyThing

TheOnlyThing

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Two things stuck out about Hyde.

First, he had good football instincts especially around the ball (as a punt returner and as a DB).

Second, he lacked the physical ability to play CB, both boundary and slot. His lack of foot speed was always going to be problematic.

Given that combination, good ball skills and lack of innate physical ability to play CB, he always struck me as a perfect candidate to play Safety.

And it is not like there was not a need at Safety during Hyde's first two years, 2013 and 2014.

I am not surprised he is thriving as a ball-hawk Safety in Buffalo. 

I also think by the end of Hyde's time in GB it made no sense to pay him anywhere near what Buffalo gave him to be a hybrid, backup CB.

Do I think the Packer defensive coaches maximized Hyde's talent? I do not.

 

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MacReady

MacReady

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Literally nobody here except for Palmy wanted the Packers to re-sign Hyde.  Literally everybody here complained about him, myself included.  I'm glad he's having a good year in Buffalo, but he wouldn't have had a good year here because he can't do what he was asked to do here.  That's the truth of it. 

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LargeFarva

LargeFarva

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1 hour ago, spilltray said:

Here is the question... Resigning Hyde means he'd have been either your third s or nickle cb. Is either worth that contract? Even as a S, wouldn't you rather Jones straight up? I would.

Jones has been playing ILB, and outside of the Bengals game he's been pretty terrible. So yes, I would take Hyde over Jones, and over Brice, and over Rollins and Randall in the slot, even at $6 million per year.

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AlexGreen#20

AlexGreen#20

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6 hours ago, LargeFarva said:

Jones has been playing ILB, and outside of the Bengals game he's been pretty terrible. So yes, I would take Hyde over Jones, and over Brice, and over Rollins and Randall in the slot, even at $6 million per year.

Hyde would be playing the same role as Jones/Burnett were he on this team in 2017. 

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