2022 College Prospect Thread

[grizmo78]

56 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Over the last few years, we’ve seen guys like Mark Andrews, Maxx Crosby, CJ Gardner Johnson, Trey Hendrickson, Josey Jewell, Chris Godwin, Eddie Jackson, Shaq Griffin, James Conner, Kenny Golladay, etc etc go in the late 3rd or early 4th. There’s no way I’m giving up a chance at a guy like that for a punter.

Even last year we drafted two starters in Meinerz and Browning at the end of the 3rd. Justin Simmons was a 3rd round pick, etc etc 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

Name another player in this draft (widely considered to be weak) that is a close to a guaranteed perineal pro bowler as is possible.

I get that the position is devalued by many because their presence means the offense failed, but besides a QB, and edge rusher, and an LT, I’d argue that kickers have more impact on a game than any other single player. 
 

bill parcells used to say that 100 yards of filed position was equal to a TD. Belichick is known to obsess over field position.

I remember back on the old site when I had more time I looked at field position and it’s correlation to points per drive. I don’t remember the exact details but I looked at a 10ish year period and found that every yard beyond the 20 (the starting line for a touchback at that time) of starting position over the course of a season equated to like 0.025ish points per drive. 
 

again the exact details escape me but there was a direct correlation. Over the course of a season field position equals points

Edited January 16, 2022 by broncos_fan _from _uk

[Broncofan]

3 reasons why I'm on the "no" side for a P on Day 2 (or a K):

-First and foremost, the position is devalued.   Much like RB's can be had on Day 2, and don't need a Rd1 pick, the same can be said for P/K's.   A Rd 4-5 pick would be steep.   And yes, I know the guy is special, but then we get to the 2nd part:

-In DEN/ARI, the position isn't necessarily that of pure leg/distance.   The altitude actually allows for different skill sets to succeed.

-Finally, as mentioned, we've actually had great success in finding Day 2 talent, after the dry spell of Elway's 2013-17 misery.     It's a LOT harder to find talent at the key positions like IOL/ILB that we found last year.   

We shouldn't get into the philosophy of "must get" guys.   That's how you remove the value inherent to said players.   Honestly, the bigger issue with ST's is our coverage / return unit play.    If we're a complete team, I might consider it.  Until then, I'll take a hard pass.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I agree there is no such thing as a must get guy after the first round. I would also argue that there shouldn’t be a must avoid position on day 3 (and i realize we are talking end of the third round here so technically day 2)

[jsthomp2007]

14 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Even last year we drafted two starters in Meinerz and Browning at the end of the 3rd. Justin Simmons was a 3rd round pick, etc etc 

Yeah, I think the 3rd round is where you find the real gems.  

[paul-mac]

Yeah hard pass on a punter in the third round. The last two special teams players that were drafted on day 2 turned out to be below average (Bryan Anger) to downright terrible (Aguayo)

[BroncoBruin]

3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Yeah hard pass on a punter in the third round. The last two special teams players that were drafted on day 2 turned out to be below average (Bryan Anger) to downright terrible (Aguayo)

Aguayo wasn’t even a very good college kicker if you look at his numbers from 40+. That was a bad pick because the evaluation of the player was bad. Araiza is such a weapon as a punter, it’s like the equivalent of picking a kicker who’s deadly accurate from 55-60 yards.

Edited January 16, 2022 by BroncoBruin

[Scoundrel]

Several forums on here have spent multiple posts in draft topics talking about the SDSU punter. It’s quite interesting 

[broncos67]

I probably wouldn't draft a punter R3. Would take one Round 4 if he has the skillset of Araiza.

[broncosfan_101]

16 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

Several forums on here have spent multiple posts in draft topics talking about the SDSU punter. It’s quite interesting 

Our punter was 3rd in net yardage per punt, and in the top 10 in both inside-the-20 and fair-catch rates. If we needed an upgrade at the position, I can understand thinking about it. But we do not. Plus, at a certain point, you’re just out-kicking the coverage anyways. How many of that kid’s highlights involve the returner not being set up far enough back, but if he was and he did catch it in a good position, there’s a whole bunch of open field in front of him?

[The Helicopter]

I'd sacrifice a 3rd round pick to the football Gods if it guaranteed us the #1 special teams unit in the league for the next 10 years

[AnAngryAmerican]

23 hours ago, The Helicopter said:

I'd sacrifice a 3rd round pick to the football Gods if it guaranteed us the #1 special teams unit in the league for the next 10 years

Yeah but elite special teams don’t begin or end with the kicker and punter.

You have to have great depth among your OL, LBs and DBs - who fill the majority of the ST slots - a good coach who is adaptable, a good if not great PR and good luck with injuries. The Steve Taskers and Keith Burns of the world, great as they were, couldn’t even make a whole unit. 

I played on the five primary STs in all 4 years of high school - punt, punt return, kickoff, kickoff return and XP/FG block  (I was our CB3 as a soph and CB1 junior and senior, rarely played offense but i LOVED defense and ST) - so I know a lot about special teams, study it and always found it an interesting aspect of the game.

Furthermore, most coaches who are successful emphasize STs and have a background in it, Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh being prime examples.

I had a very successful coach once tell me that punt is the most difficult unit group in the game because there is both a protection and a coverage. You only have 10 guys (the punter is the emergency valve at the very back end and usually not relied upon) and thus you need 10 guys who can block very well, then bust *** downfield outnumbered make a read, avoid the return unit blockers and finally make a tackle in the open field against someone running at or close to full speed who very likely is faster and quicker than you and who knows where his blocking is going to line up. The punt team unit is rarely thought about but it is an EXTREMELY difficult play to scheme, design and execute well. 

Edited January 18, 2022 by AnAngryAmerican

[The Helicopter]

1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Yeah but elite special teams don’t begin or end with the kicker and punter.

You have to have great depth among your OL, LBs and DBs - who fill the majority of the ST slots - a good coach who is adaptable, a good if not great PR and good luck with injuries. The Steve Taskers and Keith Burns of the world, great as they were, couldn’t even make a whole unit. 

I played on the five primary STs in all 4 years of high school - punt, punt return, kickoff, kickoff return and XP/FG block  (I was our CB3 as a soph and CB1 junior and senior, rarely played offense but i LOVED defense and ST) - so I know a lot about special teams, study it and always found it an interesting aspect of the game.

Furthermore, most coaches who are successful emphasize STs and have a background in it, Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh being prime examples.

I had a very successful coach once tell me that punt is the most difficult unit group in the game because there is both a protection and a coverage. You only have 10 guys (the punter is the emergency valve at the very back end and usually not relied upon) and thus you need 10 guys who can block very well, then bust *** downfield outnumbered make a read, avoid the return unit blockers and finally make a tackle in the open field against someone running at or close to full speed who very likely is faster and quicker than you and who knows where his blocking is going to line up. The punt team unit is rarely thought about but it is an EXTREMELY difficult play to scheme, design and execute well. 

Agreed 100%...I was being a bit facetious and sarcastic...a single player isn't enough, but a deal w/the devil may get it done

[lomaxgrUK]

In Dane Brugler's latest mock, he has four IDLs going in the 1st round, and just one in the 2nd (I appreciate they will all be different types of players).

#14 Travon Walker, Georgia
#23 Jordan Davis, Georgia
#30 Logan Hall, Houston
#32 DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M
#48 Phidarian Mathis, Alabama

This seems to corroborate what many of you have said in here that there isn't much 'obvious' IDL talent this year. 

If the back of the 1st is a hotspot for IDLs, I wonder if we'd look to move back into the 1st to get that additional year on the contract for one of these guys.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

17 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

In Dane Brugler's latest mock, he has four IDLs going in the 1st round, and just one in the 2nd (I appreciate they will all be different types of players).

#14 Travon Walker, Georgia
#23 Jordan Davis, Georgia
#30 Logan Hall, Houston
#32 DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M
#48 Phidarian Mathis, Alabama

This seems to corroborate what many of you have said in here that there isn't much 'obvious' IDL talent this year. 

If the back of the 1st is a hotspot for IDLs, I wonder if we'd look to move back into the 1st to get that additional year on the contract for one of these guys.

I don’t mind moving back into the first to grab a falling DT if you’re targeting him as a difference maker. But I don’t think that the extra year alone is justification to do so. DT is essentially tied with OL (give or take a couple thousand dollars) as the 4th cheapest position to franchise. So even if they become an all pro, the assets necessary to move up likely outweighs the cap savings for that one year.