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What does Vegas really think


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Not the betting public, but the betting house. This is a thousand simulations with each possible NFC opponent playing in GB. 

Tampa Bay - Win Probability TB 52.6%, GB 47.4% - Median Score TB 27, GB 26

Dallas - Win Probability GB 50.3%, Dallas 49.7% - Median Score GB 27, Dallas 27

LA Rams - Win Probability GB 52.9%, Rams 47.1% - Median Score GB 25, Rams 24

Arizona - Win Probability GB 55.5%, Arizona 44.5% - Median Score GB 26, Arizona 24

49er's - Win Probability GB 56.6%, 49er's 43.4% - Median Score GB 26, 49er's 24

Eagles - Win Probability GB 61.8%, Eagles 38.2% - Median Score GB 28, Eagles 23

Vegas is not as sold on the Packers as the fans and media are, not a great deal of margin for error for the Packers by these numbers.

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I don't get it with Dallas. I think they're the biggest fraud in the NFC. Their "quality" win this season is beating a rookie QB-led Patriots team in OT at New England and that was really before Jones started playing well. That's it. They don't have a single other win this year against a quality opponent. I'm hoping they beat SF just because I don't want to play SF, but that game is a toss up at best. 

Don't fear the Rams or Cardinals at Lambeau in sub-10 degree weather. Rams are soft and have the worst OL in the playoffs and the Cards are simply unimpressive without Hopkins and it doesn't look like he's coming back by next week.  

I know people probably don't want to admit it but Tampa is still, by far IMO, the biggest obstacle for GB getting to the SB. With Tampa you have to beat a veteran team who's been there, a very good front 7, a very good DC in Bowles, Brady and his constant stream of lucky breaks, and the refs. For me, our competition is Tampa....and then everyone else pretty much lumped together. 

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5 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I know people probably don't want to admit it but Tampa is still, by far IMO, the biggest obstacle for GB getting to the SB. With Tampa you have to beat a veteran team who's been there, a very good front 7, a very good DC in Bowles, Brady and his constant stream of lucky breaks, and the refs. For me, our competition is Tampa....and then everyone else pretty much lumped together. 

Some people agree with this.......just saying it differently:  Tampa has the formula - a proven formula - to beat us. Have injuries degraded them enough to take that shine off? Wont know till (if or when) we have to play them.

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1 minute ago, Leader said:

Some people agree with this.......just saying it differently:  Tampa has the formula - a proven formula - to beat us. Have injuries degraded them enough to take that shine off? Wont know till (if or when) we have to play them.

Weather will matter too, at least to a degree (no pun). Last year, it was a pretty nice day in Green Bay when Tampa came to town. We need a cold game in that one. Brady is used to it, but it impact some of the other guys. 

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Just now, packfanfb said:

Weather will matter too, at least to a degree (no pun). Last year, it was a pretty nice day in Green Bay when Tampa came to town. We need a cold game in that one. Brady is used to it, but it impact some of the other guys. 

Agree. Thats why I want all late games......or cloudy day games :)

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1 minute ago, Leader said:

Agree. Thats why I want all late games......or cloudy day games :)

Well, good news, this season the NFC Championship game is the 2nd game, meaning a 6:40 pm (EST) start. 

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1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

Well, good news, this season the NFC Championship game is the 2nd game, meaning a 6:40 pm (EST) start. 

And when's the sun setting in GB nowadays?

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Because the Packers are a pretender team again. Their defense relies on turnovers. It’s not a good defense. It’s soft.

The Packers are going to get blown out of their own building again in probably the Championship game again and it’s once again going to be because the defense won’t be able to stop anybody without a turnover.

 

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46 minutes ago, R T said:

Not the betting public, but the betting house. This is a thousand simulations with each possible NFC opponent playing in GB.

Vegas is not as sold on the Packers as the fans and media are, not a great deal of margin for error for the Packers by these numbers.

These numbers are likely from a single model and do not reflect " what Vegas thinks" 
Vegas isn't a single thing and this model doesn't speak for an entire city of Sharps.

Start here: All models are wrong, some of them are useful. Many aren't.

We have no idea what the inputs were, the methodology, the validation of the model or how its done historically or whether it has the ability to look forward with any success. Why did they choose 1000 simulations while others use 10,000 or 50,000 ? No link means we can't endeavor to learn more.
Its pretty hard to reach any useful conclusions without more information.

538 Sports posts their methodology and they have the Packers with the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl. see below
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/     They are but one of many betting models available. ( ELO and modified ELO)


Sagarin posts their NFL team ratings and uses a synthesis of (3) different score-based models to arrive at their results
Predictor, Golden Mean and Recent. See below

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm


There are a ton of legit models & simulations out there and they all have their plusses and minuses.
But we need much more info if we're going to give any credibility to what these models suggest.

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25 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

These numbers are likely from a single model and do not reflect " what Vegas thinks" 
Vegas isn't a single thing and this model doesn't speak for an entire city of Sharps.

Start here: All models are wrong, some of them are useful. Many aren't.

We have no idea what the inputs were, the methodology, the validation of the model or how its done historically or whether it has the ability to look forward with any success. Why did they choose 1000 simulations while others use 10,000 or 50,000 ? No link means we can't endeavor to learn more.
Its pretty hard to reach any useful conclusions without more information.

538 Sports posts their methodology and they have the Packers with the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl. see below
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/     They are but one of many betting models available. ( ELO and modified ELO)


Sagarin posts their NFL team ratings and uses a synthesis of (3) different score-based models to arrive at their results
Predictor, Golden Mean and Recent. See below

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm


There are a ton of legit models & simulations out there and they all have their plusses and minuses.
But we need much more info if we're going to give any credibility to what these models suggest.

Yes all models are wrong, but they are better than walking around in the dark with no direction. Your link to Jeff Sagarin suggests the same caution as the numbers I shared, Sagarin thinks the Packers are the 6th best team in the NFL. The numbers I shared were to shed light on how tight these games may be head-to-head for GB, that was all I was attempting to point out.  

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Just now, R T said:

Yes all models are wrong, but they are better than walking around in the dark with no direction. Your link to Jeff Sagarin suggests the same caution as the numbers I shared, Sagarin thinks the Packers are the 6th best team in the NFL. The numbers I shared were to shed light on how tight these games may be head-to-head for GB, that was all I was attempting to point out.  

Are we the 6th best team with Bakhtiari, Z, Jaire, Mercilus, and Turner on hand.  I think we are a bit better than that.

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