What does Vegas really think

[R T]

1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Are we the 6th best team with Bakhtiari, Z, Jaire, Mercilus, and Turner on hand.  I think we are a bit better than that.

You will need to ask Jeff Sagarin that question, it's his model not mine.  

[Norm]

5 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Are we the 6th best team with Bakhtiari, Z, Jaire, Mercilus, and Turner on hand.  I think we are a bit better than that.

analytics suck

[craig]

14 minutes ago, R T said:

...The numbers I shared were to shed light on how tight these games may be head-to-head for GB, that was all I was attempting to point out.  

Exactly.  There seems to be very much parity in the league and in the NFC.  The numbers suggesting that the odds aren't that far from 50-50 in any of these games is, I think, instructive.  Sure, maybe I think the Packers do have an edge in some of them, whether that be 52-48 or 51-49 or 55-45.  But either way, there is not big separation.  Very slender margins.  The odds of winning back-to-back 50/50 games is 25/75.  I wouldn't assume the Packers odds are much better than that.  A missed block here, a dropped ball there, a throw that was imperfect, a tackle missed, a call made or not, the margin is very slender. 

[craig]

RT, I don't know how much home field is considered to be worth in the NFL, or in the playoffs.  Is it normally viewed as being worth 2 points, or something like that?  I'm wondering whether that Vegas calculation you cite was on neutral-field with no home-field factor?  Or if they already included a home-field factor in Green Bay's favor?  Just curious.  

Edited January 13, 2022 by craig

[R T]

2 minutes ago, craig said:

RT, I don't know how much home field is considered to be worth in the NFL, or in the playoffs.  Is it normally viewed as being worth 2 points, or something like that?  I'm wondering whether that Vegas calculation you site was on neutral-field with no home-field factor?  Or if they already included a home-field factor in Green Bay's favor?  Just curious.  

Simulated with GB being the home team, home-field advantage is factored in. 

[craig]

Regarding Tampa, in recent weeks they've been missing some guys.  But other than Godwin, won't they have pretty much all of their guys back before they'd come to Green Bay, if both teams get that far? 

[Jaire_Island]

2 hours ago, Leader said:

Some people agree with this.......just saying it differently:  Tampa has the formula - a proven formula - to beat us. Have injuries degraded them enough to take that shine off? Wont know till (if or when) we have to play them.

No injuries to Tampa.

Their Oline is Intact, Dline is intact, MLB’s are intact, secondary is back to full strength…

Only noticeable injury is Chris Godwin’s

Apart from that they are fully loaded at this point of time.  

[packfanfb]

1 hour ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Are we the 6th best team with Bakhtiari, Z, Jaire, Mercilus, and Turner on hand.  I think we are a bit better than that.

It's all relative. Numbers and metrics don't take into account momentum, health, game temperature, field surface, and 50 other variables that ultimately will decide these games. Hell, we've seen countless times throughout the last 10 years that one flag (or non-flag) by a ref can be the difference between a win or loss (ex. Rams/Saints NFCCG a few years back). 

Is GB a head-and-shoulders dominant team over these other teams? No way. This isn't 1996 when the Packers played Carolina at home in the NFCCG and everyone and their Mom knew it was going to be a blowout. But several of those variables highlighted above make us the favorite in the NFC. The only team that's real close to us, again, IMO, is Tampa. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by packfanfb

[Old Guy]

2 hours ago, packfanfb said:

I don't get it with Dallas. I think they're the biggest fraud in the NFC. Their "quality" win this season is beating a rookie QB-led Patriots team in OT at New England and that was really before Jones started playing well. That's it. They don't have a single other win this year against a quality opponent. I'm hoping they beat SF just because I don't want to play SF, but that game is a toss up at best. 

Don't fear the Rams or Cardinals at Lambeau in sub-10 degree weather. Rams are soft and have the worst OL in the playoffs and the Cards are simply unimpressive without Hopkins and it doesn't look like he's coming back by next week.  

I know people probably don't want to admit it but Tampa is still, by far IMO, the biggest obstacle for GB getting to the SB. With Tampa you have to beat a veteran team who's been there, a very good front 7, a very good DC in Bowles, Brady and his constant stream of lucky breaks, and the refs. For me, our competition is Tampa....and then everyone else pretty much lumped together. 

I've got San Francisco steamrolling the Cowboys in the run game. Dallas front 7 is not stout enough to hold up to the 9ers ground game. Also, they will be bringing the heat on Prescott. I believe the 49ers win this game. 

[{Family Ghost}]

I think we are going to stomp somebody .. we're getting back three of the top 6 or 7 players on this roster, and will be the healthiest we've been all season long.  It's going to be about 8 degrees with below zero wind chill and will be a very long day for our next opponent. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by {Family Ghost}

[Smidgeon]

4 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I think we are going to stomp somebody .. we're getting back three of the top 6 or 7 players on this roster, and will be the healthiest we've been all season long.  It's going to be about 8 degrees with below zero wind chill and will be a very long day for our next opponent. 

I can see that.  Just not sure if it's the first game (due to rust), the second game (due to familiar opponent), or third game (due to finally hitting our stride).

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Exactly.  There seems to be very much parity in the league and in the NFC.  The numbers suggesting that the odds aren't that far from 50-50 in any of these games is, I think, instructive.  Sure, maybe I think the Packers do have an edge in some of them, whether that be 52-48 or 51-49 or 55-45.  But either way, there is not big separation.  Very slender margins.  The odds of winning back-to-back 50/50 games is 25/75.  I wouldn't assume the Packers odds are much better than that.  A missed block here, a dropped ball there, a throw that was imperfect, a tackle missed, a call made or not, the margin is very slender. 

Extremely.

That's why the bye week matters so much.

Even if you say a team has a 55% chance of winning in the wild card, division, CCG, and SB. that's 9.15% chance of success.

If a team has a 50% chance in the Division, CCG, and SB that's 12.5% chance. 

 

 

 

[Sasquatch]

3 hours ago, Old Guy said:

I've got San Francisco steamrolling the Cowboys in the run game. Dallas front 7 is not stout enough to hold up to the 9ers ground game. Also, they will be bringing the heat on Prescott. I believe the 49ers win this game. 

If that happens, I believe GB would get SF next weekend.  The playoffs are all about “match-ups” and GB doesn’t match up well against SF.  I’m not as concerned about Jimmy or even Kittle (he’s been up and down this year) but Debo will likely have a huge day against our defense.  Hoping Dallas just gets lucky enough this weekend.

[NFLGURU]

1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

If that happens, I believe GB would get SF next weekend.  The playoffs are all about “match-ups” and GB doesn’t match up well against SF.  I’m not as concerned about Jimmy or even Kittle (he’s been up and down this year) but Debo will likely have a huge day against our defense.  Hoping Dallas just gets lucky enough this weekend.

Agree, SF will line up and punch us in the mouth.   While Green Bays mentality is using the cold as some kind of factor, it has failed many times. 

Go out and play football and quit waiting for the opponent to quit because of the cold.  Fake tough doesn't work in the cold, tough does.   

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, NFLGURU said:

Agree, SF will line up and punch us in the mouth.   While Green Bays mentality is using the cold as some kind of factor, it has failed many times. 

Go out and play football and quit waiting for the opponent to quit because of the cold.  Fake tough doesn't work in the cold, tough does.   

I agree a smart, physical brand of football is needed to be the best in the playoffs.  Take it to them, not the other way around. Beat the man in front of you.