Math of Khan Mock Draft

[Raidersfan1]

On 1/15/2022 at 8:23 AM, AFF said:

Fournette isn’t going to come here...he’ll get paid somewhere else and won’t split carries...I do agree we need a better RB2 though.

I think FA is more possible with the 2nd TE even though Gentry had gotten better...lot of interesting names out there.

Even though he’s good, I would be afraid to give Armstead that deal due to his injury history.

Fournette is probably best suited to be a RB1a at this point and that's what he would be here. The offer is top of the RB money, and I'd spend it to see Najee play into his 30's.

Gentry is a 3rd TE. You can slide him out there where he's a legitimate threat in that spot. It's much more viable than a Matt Cushing or Jerame Tuman type over the years some of which were TE2.

The offensive line is just in shambles. Whenever a guy like Armstead hits the market I'm going to be interested. The risk is injury not performance-based. That's a risk I'm willing to take. Signing a guy just to "act" like you filled a need is a waste of time and you still have that need. The reason I'm willing to make him the highest paid OT in history is because he's an athletic LT. That's a rare commodity. You gotta draft in the top five to get one of those guys. The Saints got lucky with the Pine Bluff and got him in the 2nd round.  Yeah, he's more machine than man at this point. I'm willing to do a Steelers deal (two years of guarantees) and then bail if things go bad. 

I think I can get five good years of him and time the window right.

 

 

[Raidersfan1]

On 1/15/2022 at 10:04 AM, 43M said:

That OLine would be amazing.

The draft, however, is pretty meh outside of round 1.

As mentioned, taking a TE in round 2 makes no sense.      Pat is our starter, and Gentry is fine for our backup for next year.   If we need an upgrade, that can come later.

Drafting a punter is pretty much never a good idea.      The ones you draft....regardless of round, are usually not much better than many UDFA's.      We just drafted a punter and he is horrible.       Id rather sign a vet to compete with Harvin next year.    

Only WRs Id take early are a great possession guy like Dotson or a burner that can stretch the field....and even then I dont know if Id take one early given our needs.

Haeg will likely be cut.

And you didnt have us address corner at all?    Really?

 

Love the punter pick. I've grown tired of losing the field position battle. He flips the field. 

Christian Watson is probably 6'4" 4.47 and can get in and out of his cuts nicely, not too mention a 40" vertical. 

Keeping Haeg for his flexibility.

CB is a do not draft for me. Marcus Jones 5'8" and feisty is a guy I'd target in the 5th round for the slot role given his shortcomings when someone scoops up my punter in the 2nd or 3rd round. Also can contribute on special teams. Ultimately, CB is a position that is outsourced.

[Raidersfan1]

On 1/15/2022 at 8:33 AM, armsteeld said:

Channing Tindall and Juanyeh Thomas will be studs in the NFL. Tindall is probably better than Nakobe Dean and has a higher upside due to his coverage ability. Juanyeh is a big physical Safety that can do it all at a high level. Needs work on pursuit angles but that can be fixed. 

It's like one of those classic scenarios when you look at the rankings and it's like why is that guy higher than this guy. Then there's another guy. Tindall translates to the NFL and will be the best of the bunch. 

Juanyeh Thomas also gets leadership marks and I bet is well liked by his teammates. 

[Raidersfan1]

On 1/15/2022 at 10:18 AM, AFF said:

I would guess he assumes they pay up for a CB or 2.

Im guessing Haeg stays due to being able to play multiple spots.

I agree with WR...I think they’re going to draft 1 high or surprisingly spend some $$$ on a vet...just a hunch.

Agreed on punter.

I'd fill CB the same way they got Akhello Witherspoon. A future 5th round pick. Much better than a 2nd round pick. 

Also, operating in areas of deficiency open up availability of undrafted players to see you as an opportunity to make a team. (i.e. Mike Hilton)

[Raidersfan1]

On 1/15/2022 at 8:01 PM, almondjr said:

Pick #1 is smaller than last yrs center pick and we know how that turned out and TE  with the 2nd rd pick when the middle of the defense need help. Pick 2 should be DT or MLB I do like the other picks👍🏿👍🏿👍🏿

Linderbaum will be fine. I don't think he's going to be Alan Faneca. Or Dermonti Dawson. But I do think he is strong enough with his skillset coming in that he can perform at a high level and be a fringe All-Pro guy. Given it solves a need, and given his traits as a player, I think he's perfect for #20.

[Raidersfan1]

On 1/16/2022 at 10:28 AM, warfelg said:

Size concerns and these random things coming up with Linderbaum are kinda the absurd excuses to not take a center high. He plays with great leverage, takes amazing angles, has a mean streak, and most importantly stays on his feet. 
 

I got Jason Kelce as a comp. 

I don't think he's that quick but a lot of times I like the career projection. And that career's trajectory is about right.

[43M]

9 minutes ago, Raidersfan1 said:

Love the punter pick. I've grown tired of losing the field position battle. He flips the field. 

Christian Watson is probably 6'4" 4.47 and can get in and out of his cuts nicely, not too mention a 40" vertical. 

Keeping Haeg for his flexibility.

CB is a do not draft for me. Marcus Jones 5'8" and feisty is a guy I'd target in the 5th round for the slot role given his shortcomings when someone scoops up my punter in the 2nd or 3rd round. Also can contribute on special teams. Ultimately, CB is a position that is outsourced.

Most highly touted drafted punters disappoint, and dont tend to be any better than guys that go undrafted.   Hard pass on punter.

CB is "do not draft", but a 2nd round TE is?   Sorry, but that makes no sense to me.   I kinda het where youre coming from given our terrible track record drafting defensive backs, but Id much rather draft a CB than TE early.

Edited January 25, 2022 by 43M

[Raidersfan1]

On 1/15/2022 at 11:41 PM, JustPlainNasty said:

The one thing I do like is the Mariota signing. Its what Ive been saying before this year, a much better stop gap with mobility and upside potential that doesnt turn the ball over too much. Issue was being aggressive, but I think he may take command a little more. In any case dont reach or overextend picks with a trade if its not "the guy" when you have so many areas of need. 

Look - just don't lose us the game. Charlie Batch. Manage the game.

[Raidersfan1]

Just now, 43M said:

Most highly touted drafted punters disappoint, and dont tend to be any better than guys that go undrafted.   Hard pass on punter.

CB is "do not draft", but a 2nd round TE is?   Sorry, but that makes no sense to me.

Value. A 2nd TE that will be the best player drafted in that round is better than failing on a position you have shown an inability to draft for over 20 years. One in the hand is worth two in the bush. Solve CB the way you have recently. Via the Pro Scouting Coordinator. FA's, trades, not wasting draft picks.

As mentioned previously, 12 personnel is what I'd roll with. Because that complements the style of play of your RB and gives you a matchup advantage mentioned previously in the Tom Cable quote. Which should be a mere wrinkle of a dynamic offense.

Daniel Sepulveda argument is valid. You can do just as good in the undrafted market. This guy is special... The 80 yard punts might not translate, but I'm willing to take that risk in the 5th round to find an All-Pro that flips the field for once

The reasons I wouldn't draft a CB: 1) wasted draft capital 2) you can add via a trade like with Witherspoon 3) appearing weak opens you up as a good spot for UDFA

 

Edited January 25, 2022 by Raidersfan1

[43M]

49 minutes ago, Raidersfan1 said:

Value. A 2nd TE that will be the best player drafted in that round is better than failing on a position you have shown an inability to draft for over 20 years.

We have no need for an early round TE.  We dont use TEs enough in this offense.

And you dont skip on talented players out of fear.

Yea, we have sucked at drafting them, but free agency and trade options are limited, and we need help at corner in a bad way.

49 minutes ago, Raidersfan1 said:

One in the hand is worth two in the bush. Solve CB the way you have recently. Via the Pro Scouting Coordinator. FA's, trades, not wasting draft picks.

Again, those options are limited and can be costly.   People are overrating Witherspoon.   He didnt even see the field until the end of the year.   We have no clue how he would be for a full season as starter.   Most proven CBs cost a ton to sign in FA or to trade for...and youre competing vs other teams.   You cant depend solely on that.

49 minutes ago, Raidersfan1 said:

Daniel Sepulveda argument is valid. You can do just as good in the undrafted market. This guy is special... The 80 yard punts might not translate, but I'm willing to take that risk in the 5th round to find an All-Pro that flips the field for once

We just drafted Harvin too.    I seriously doubt they will draft punter two years straight.

49 minutes ago, Raidersfan1 said:

The reasons I wouldn't draft a CB: 1) wasted draft capital 2) you can add via a trade like with Witherspoon 3) appearing weak opens you up as a good spot for UDFA

1.   Every pick you whiff on is wasted.    If there is a need at CB and the player is there, you dont pass out of fear.     If it made sense to trade for/sign all of our CBs, so be it...but its not a feasible option if you are actually looking for long term stability.

2.  Again, youre overrating Witherspoon based on a limited sample size.   Trades arent much more likely to work out than drafting unless youre trading a high pick for a proven player, and in that case you might get into a bidding war.

3.  Most teams are weak at corner.   And and most UDFAs don't amount to anything.   Cant depend on them.

[DudeWhat???]

5 hours ago, Raidersfan1 said:

The tight end pick is actually my favorite pick. One could argue it's our least of our needs given Muthhhhh, and the fact the Steelers don't even know how to utilize the tight end. Why do you even need a second one? The bottom line is this is a hit. Misses kill franchises. This pick transforms the team into a two tight end Kraken much akin to the Patriots days of old. This complements the singleback you have in Najee Harris, as well as, presents an offensive coordinator with options in constructing a gameplan that brings fear into opponents. This guy is that dude. Kelce, Gates, etc.  

Wydermyer is the deep threat. Freiermuth is the in-line blocker between Matt Spaeth and Heath Miller. 

 

As Cable explained, the increased usage of two tight end sets - New England has been the most prominent at this with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez - means an offense can dictate to a defense. When your offense shows up in the huddle with two tight ends:

I think you have to make a decision as a defense now - do you want to play these guys in base defense? If you do, then you're going to have a linebacker covering those tight ends. If you're going to go the other way, say, you're going to put nickel in the game (substitute in one defensive back for a linebacker), then we're going to try to shove the ball down your throat running it. For us, it kind of puts us back into a position of power, where we're going to play off of how they want to substitute and how they want to match up. If they stay in base, you might see us attack them more and throw the ball more; if they get in nickel, you might see us run it more.

And we'll see the tight end position in 2035.

We aren't running a 2 tight end system though. Much like most teams we are running one with the number 2 being mostly a blocker. Muth is an all around threat in the passing game.