The Good, the Bad, the season is over

[ronjon1990]

24 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Through 7 games with Ruggs and everyone healthy, he average 1.7 TDs per game. Where do you guys get these numbers? He never through more than 2 in a single game all season. 

Anyway... I really don't care to argue this any longer. Carr will always be a polarizing player here. Every offseason is a new wave of it's and buts for him. It's tiresome. 

I maintain what I said last year with all the ifs and buts... he's still an Andy Dalton level starter. Good to win games, never going to get you far in the playoffs when he gets there. The Raiders are a treadmill team with him at QB. There isn't another level to his game. 

The Chicago fiasco aside, he was averaging 2 TDs per game up to the point Ruggs f'd off and killed someone. 

To that point he had 2 TDs in every game other than 1, where he threw 0. 

It's not hard to imagine that, with Ruggs instead of a revolving door of has been's and never were's, the offense would have been better off against some of the weaker pass D's in the league. 

This, there would have likely been more 2 or even a 3 TD game here and there, more or less averaging out to 17 × 2 = 34. 

Once we lost our only real legitimate "star", the TDs dropped off and the interceptions picked up, especially as the run game failed to gain traction and we started missing our other legit playmaker. 

I see the 2021 season as 2 very separate seasons. Losing a coach, a player killing someone, missing weapons left and right, reshuffling the OL.... that's the Raiders season post-October 10th. 

But hey, you expect more TDs? Who does he throw them to? Zay gonna be a 7-8 TD guy? Waller gonna catch 2 or 3 per game to make up for missing chunks? Edwards going to catch 6 or 7? 

Carr can't throw them AND catch them, someone has to catch them. Jacobs isn't doing so when he's knicked up constantly. Waller isn't catching any during the 1/3 of the season he missed. Ruggs wasn't catching any during the 10 weeks he wasn't on the squad. 

That left Renfrow, Jones, and Edwards primarily.  Renfrow caught 9. Are we going to pretend he's Davante Adams and capable of catching 15+? Jones caught 1 in the regular season. Again, do we blame Carr for Jones too? He's a replacement WR. Edwards had 3. He was underwhelming on his own. Are we pretending he's a star? Moreau had 3, though we didn't use him enough. It's fun to say he's a starter on most other teams, but we don't actually know that. We assume it because he's had some moments when replacing Waller. 

So, if you want to say Carr should have had more TDs, ok. Tell us who he should have thrown them to, and account for the fact that Ruggs and Waller missed an entire season's worth of games between the two of them and Jacobs was pathetically ineffective until the last like 3 games of the year. 

 

[NYRaider]

Carr's TD production has never been great though. Through his first 8 seasons he has had 30+ TD one time and that was in his second season and throughout his career he has averaged 24 TD per season.

[ronjon1990]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Carr's TD production has never been great though. Through his first 8 seasons he has had 30+ TD one time and that was in his second season and throughout his career he has averaged 24 TD per season.

Cool, he's not a fantasy QB. 

Mahomes won the SB with 26 TDs with better weapons. 

Rodgers' SB win had 28 TDs. 

In fact, more often than not, a bunch of excess TDs doesn't equate to success or a SB. Brees? Manning? Wilson? Mahomes' 50 TD season? Rodgers' typical season? 

When 30-40+ TDs correlates to winning the Super Bowl on an annual basis, ok. Until then, I don't particularly care about bulk stats because I couldn't care less if my team's QB was fantasy relevant.

Jimmy G isn't relevant as a fantasy player with pretty stats, but he's going to be starting his 5th playoff game with SF in the last 3 years, one of which he missed most of, has a 3-1 playoff record and a Superbowl appearance, and a decent chance to win this weekend. 

Kyler, Dak and their oodles of fantasy points? They're sitting at home. Dak is 1-3 in playoff appearances, with better weapons and a much more stable franchise. Kyler is a dud 0-1 with one of the most laughable performances in recent memory.  LaMVPar Jackson is 1-3 without a real standout playoff performance, and the Ravens are one of the best run franchises in the league.  

Point is, I don't care if Carr throws 18, 28, or 38 TDs. Get the man real weapons, real blocking, a real OC, and a DC that doesn't insist on playing 10 yards deep on 3rd and 2. It's enough to win with. 

[NickButera]

59 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Cool, he's not a fantasy QB. 

Mahomes won the SB with 26 TDs with better weapons. 

Rodgers' SB win had 28 TDs. 

In fact, more often than not, a bunch of excess TDs doesn't equate to success or a SB. Brees? Manning? Wilson? Mahomes' 50 TD season? Rodgers' typical season? 

When 30-40+ TDs correlates to winning the Super Bowl on an annual basis, ok. Until then, I don't particularly care about bulk stats because I couldn't care less if my team's QB was fantasy relevant.

Jimmy G isn't relevant as a fantasy player with pretty stats, but he's going to be starting his 5th playoff game with SF in the last 3 years, one of which he missed most of, has a 3-1 playoff record and a Superbowl appearance, and a decent chance to win this weekend. 

Kyler, Dak and their oodles of fantasy points? They're sitting at home. Dak is 1-3 in playoff appearances, with better weapons and a much more stable franchise. Kyler is a dud 0-1 with one of the most laughable performances in recent memory.  LaMVPar Jackson is 1-3 without a real standout playoff performance, and the Ravens are one of the best run franchises in the league.  

Point is, I don't care if Carr throws 18, 28, or 38 TDs. Get the man real weapons, real blocking, a real OC, and a DC that doesn't insist on playing 10 yards deep on 3rd and 2. It's enough to win with. 

That's a fantastic comparison. I didn't realize Dak, Lamar and Murray's post season records, well, I did, but when you write it down it clicked for me. Super interesting. 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said:

Point is, I don't care if Carr throws 18, 28, or 38 TDs. Get the man real weapons, real blocking, a real OC, and a DC that doesn't insist on playing 10 yards deep on 3rd and 2. It's enough to win with. 

Point is regardless of how many TD's Carr has we have 0 playoff wins in almost a decade with him starting.

[MrOaktown_56]

20 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Point is regardless of how many TD's Carr has we have 0 playoff wins in almost a decade with him starting.

Yeah look at the teams we've fielded. How many of them even deserved to make it in the playoffs? Max 1-2/10 

[MrOaktown_56]

2 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

The Chicago fiasco aside, he was averaging 2 TDs per game up to the point Ruggs f'd off and killed someone. 

To that point he had 2 TDs in every game other than 1, where he threw 0. 

It's not hard to imagine that, with Ruggs instead of a revolving door of has been's and never were's, the offense would have been better off against some of the weaker pass D's in the league. 

This, there would have likely been more 2 or even a 3 TD game here and there, more or less averaging out to 17 × 2 = 34. 

Once we lost our only real legitimate "star", the TDs dropped off and the interceptions picked up, especially as the run game failed to gain traction and we started missing our other legit playmaker. 

I see the 2021 season as 2 very separate seasons. Losing a coach, a player killing someone, missing weapons left and right, reshuffling the OL.... that's the Raiders season post-October 10th. 

But hey, you expect more TDs? Who does he throw them to? Zay gonna be a 7-8 TD guy? Waller gonna catch 2 or 3 per game to make up for missing chunks? Edwards going to catch 6 or 7? 

Carr can't throw them AND catch them, someone has to catch them. Jacobs isn't doing so when he's knicked up constantly. Waller isn't catching any during the 1/3 of the season he missed. Ruggs wasn't catching any during the 10 weeks he wasn't on the squad. 

That left Renfrow, Jones, and Edwards primarily.  Renfrow caught 9. Are we going to pretend he's Davante Adams and capable of catching 15+? Jones caught 1 in the regular season. Again, do we blame Carr for Jones too? He's a replacement WR. Edwards had 3. He was underwhelming on his own. Are we pretending he's a star? Moreau had 3, though we didn't use him enough. It's fun to say he's a starter on most other teams, but we don't actually know that. We assume it because he's had some moments when replacing Waller. 

So, if you want to say Carr should have had more TDs, ok. Tell us who he should have thrown them to, and account for the fact that Ruggs and Waller missed an entire season's worth of games between the two of them and Jacobs was pathetically ineffective until the last like 3 games of the year. 

 

My issue with TD's is: if you drive down to the 1 yard line and your RB runs it in, you get 0 credit. We've never been a team that "stat pads" TD's in the RZ. Just saying.

[ronjon1990]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Point is regardless of how many TD's Carr has we have 0 playoff wins in almost a decade with him starting.

When, in that decade, have we had a Defense that was functional, much less playoff caliber? 0 years. 

When, in that decade have we had a run get that wasn't decidedly mediocre and starting Darren McFadden, Latavius Murray, MJD, a post-retirement Lynch, or the oft-dinged up Jacobs? 0 years. 

When, in that decade, have we had a coaching staff that didn't consist of Dennis Alan, Greg Olson, Jon Gruden, Bill Musgrave and Todd fkn Downing? 0 years. 

When, in that decade, were our leading WR/TEs not named: Andre Holmes, James Jones, Mychal Rivera, Lee Smith, Clive Walford, Jordy Nelson, Seth Roberts, Zay Jones, the abstract idea known as Tyrell Williams on a football field? All of 2, maybe 3 total years. 

When, in that decade, have we had: Good coaching, a competent run game not held together by glue and luck, competent WRs that actually produced on a regular basis, decent blocking, and a defense not ranked near the bottom of the league? 0 years. None. Not one time have we fielded anything remotely resembling a complete team.

What's the common denominator amongst the guys listed above? They were all either objectively bad, soon out of the league, well past their primes, or a combination of the 3. For most of the last decade, we've put low caliber guys on the field. Guys that were on their way out of the league. That's the reality. 

The only QB in the league that could possibly win consistently and put up decent stats with that garbage is Tom Brady, and even his garbage teams were coached by Belichik. And sorry, but if you have to be Tom freaking Brady to have any modicum of success with your team, you don't have a team. 

I don't care if we keep Carr. I've said before that I hope we trade him and do him a favor. And I'll laugh when we bring in a Tua or Kyler or LaMVPar or do a Tank for Trevor and wind up with a hype driven QB that can't function without absolute stars around them. Tua and Trevor? When did they ever play equal or better competition in college? Never. They could have outright putrid games and still win by 30. LaMVPar can't throw a pass to save his life and fumbles a lot despite having better blocking than Mr. Leatherwood and Parker. Kyler? That impish child looks helpless and clueless without one of the league's best WRs bailing him out like Mike Evans did for Manziel at A&M. There isn't a comparison of a "good QB" who has overcome as much as Carr has in terms of putrid coaching and talent and had anywhere near the same level of success. 

But yeah, because he doesn't have video game stats and yank practice squad players to endless playoff wins like...Mahomes? Nope. Wilson? Nope. Rodgers'? Nope. Brady? Nope. Brees? Nope. Manning? Nope. Allen? Nada....yeah it's Carr that is the problem lol. Ok.

[MrOaktown_56]

I can't imagine how much the forum would melt down if we had a roster like the Chargers and went 9-8. That's a failure. 

[Geezy]

5 hours ago, big_palooka said:

4 and he only through 3 more INTs total compared to Carr, but through 18 more TDs. And Carr had 13 fumbles

Agree you can put more talent around Carr to help him compete. He did have top 5 TE, top 10 LT, top 5 slot WR. Jacobs isn't a slouch at RB. Needs more protection and another WR option. That said, he still has had the same issues for 8 years now. His been wildly inconsistent. Can blow the doors of Dallas and then fall asleep a week later against thee football team. 

Nothing Carr has shown in an 8 year career leads me to believe you can win a Super Bowl with him. I think he's a good QB, he will win you games, but pressure on, he's going to shrink.

i just think we havent seen DC with a supporting cast around him to truly compete and him show that he isnt the guy. Cincy for example has light years better talent and Carr was a play away. Its easier to add talent around a QB than it is to find a QB especially when youre picking in the 20's. Now if we traded for a Watson, id have zero complaints, i just dont think you can go after a guy like him with the stuff we just dealt with this past season, Wilson is showing regression, we are not ready as a team for an ARod, he wants to win SBs.  

DC is who he is, and isnt the guy to outduel Mahomes in a AFC Championship game  undermanned, but its up to the organization to put their franchise QB in a position where he has an opportunity to win those types of games. And if he doesnt come thru, then you look for his replacement. I think we can both agree that this organization hasnt done Carr any favors since hes been in the league.

 

[Geezy]

1 hour ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I can't imagine how much the forum would melt down if we had a roster like the Chargers and went 9-8. That's a failure. 

especially with a "top 5 QB" on his rookie deal 

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I can't imagine how much the forum would melt down if we had a roster like the Chargers and went 9-8. That's a failure. 

Imagine the meltdown if we switched rosters with them and lost lol. 

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

My issue with TD's is: if you drive down to the 1 yard line and your RB runs it in, you get 0 credit. We've never been a team that "stat pads" TD's in the RZ. Just saying.

We have averaged under 10 TDs a season rushing since he has been here and that includes the 2016 season when we had 17.  He is not losing out on red zone TDs to rushing.  Using the the loss of weapons causing his TDs to drop argument does not hold as much weight as it should because his TDs go down in the 2nd half of the season anyways.  Derek Carr is not good at producing TDs but is very good at getting his team into FG range.  Not saying he is a trash QB or that other QBs do not have flaws also.  Just saying that is one of his major flaws.  He is not good when the field is shorter.  I am thinking he does not have good vision which would also explain why he locks onto receivers and does not do a good job of extending plays.