paul-mac Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Colt McCoy - 2010 3rd round 85 overall Decade-plus career as a decent quality reliable backup QB Andy Dalton - 2011 2nd round 35 overall Below average NFL starting QB for nearly a decade. Now a backup. Teddy Bridgewater - 2014 1st round 32 overall Low end starter/high end backup Derek Carr - 2014 2nd round 35 overall Average to above average starter who can show flashes of brilliance but hasn’t quite put it all together over longer periods. Jimmy Garoppolo - 2014 2nd round 62 overall Basically the same level of career as Carr Jacoby Brissett - 2016 3rd round 91 overall Not a starting QB, but very high end backup Basically I’m trying to benchmark what sort of career you can “expect” for QBs drafted in particular ranges of the draft. Obviously there will be some diamonds in the rough (Brady/Wilson) and some early picks that are outright busts from early picks (Russell/Rosen) but the rule of thumb seems to be that late first/early second round QBs are usually average starters at best, whereas in the third round you’re really looking at a career backup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jofos Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, paul-mac said: Colt McCoy - 2010 3rd round 85 overall Decade-plus career as a decent quality reliable backup QB Andy Dalton - 2011 2nd round 35 overall Below average NFL starting QB for nearly a decade. Now a backup. Teddy Bridgewater - 2014 1st round 32 overall Low end starter/high end backup Derek Carr - 2014 2nd round 35 overall Average to above average starter who can show flashes of brilliance but hasn’t quite put it all together over longer periods. Jimmy Garoppolo - 2014 2nd round 62 overall Basically the same level of career as Carr Jacoby Brissett - 2016 3rd round 91 overall Not a starting QB, but very high end backup Basically I’m trying to benchmark what sort of career you can “expect” for QBs drafted in particular ranges of the draft. Obviously there will be some diamonds in the rough (Brady/Wilson) and some early picks that are outright busts from early picks (Russell/Rosen) but the rule of thumb seems to be that late first/early second round QBs are usually average starters at best, whereas in the third round you’re really looking at a career backup. McCoy as a 3rd pick of the Browns McCoy has exceeded his draft slot. Dalton going to the Bengals put him in a bad spot out of the gate his numbers are similar to Cam Newton who was a top over-all pick. A lot of people think of Dalton as bad but he was a second round QB so it is what it is. He had a lot of starts so I'd say he earned his draft spot. Bridgewater looked good early on, but the injuries took their toll. When he was with the Saints he looked like he could earn his draft spot but since then he looked like a mid-round QB. Carr has had some WOW moments followed by WTF moments. He hasn't been bad, but he always seems to come up just a little short. He was a second round QB so he is probably about right or slightly over drafted. Garoppolo is another 2nd rounder. Injuries have been an issue. Drafted in the same draft as Carr but has 20000 less passing yards. He did go to the Super Bowl so that's something, but he has 4 post season INTs to 2 TDs. As a late second rounder it was probably about right. Brissett was drafted as a backup, and he has done fairly well in that role. The third is not a bad spot to get a back for a team that can afford it and the team that drafted him could when he was drafted. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwibrown Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Carr has been amazing if you look at him in the context of the coaches, the owner and the draft busts around him. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Pretty much all of them. Second round competent nfl starters (Dalton, Jimmy, Carr) are absolute steals in the second round. Competent/ good backups in the third round are solid. I'd include Teddy B in the former category even if he did just barely sneak into the first round. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Nix Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, paul-mac said: Andy Dalton - 2011 2nd round 35 overall Below average NFL starting QB for nearly a decade. Now a backup. Andy was better than below average. He was average to above average week to week. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr A W Niloc Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, paul-mac said: ...the rule of thumb seems to be that late first/early second round QBs are usually average starters at best, whereas in the third round you’re really looking at a career backup. The Pieces of 8 Rule is the geek's guideline to define average expectation at any position. A priori, add one to the draft order, multiply by 8, and that is where the rookie is expected to land in their first year. For example, the best new QB rates to finish around ((1+1)x8=) 16th at that position, the second best 24th, the third 32nd, et cetera. (As we saw in 2021, the complication is that, a posteriori, "best" doesn't necessarily mean "first chosen".) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awsi Dooger Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 32 minutes ago, Johnny Nix said: Andy was better than below average. He was average to above average week to week. No kidding. I had to laugh at that summary. It was the bar stool perspective not the real world perspective. From 2013 through 2018 he was definitely above average as a block, although declining toward the end of those years. I'd say all of them exceeded draft position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jofos Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Kiwibrown said: Carr has been amazing if you look at him in the context of the coaches, the owner and the draft busts around him. You're probably right. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 It’s tough when the 2012 draft gives you a pair of 3rd round SB winning QBs. Throw in Montana as another round 3 QB. Its also tough when you get Rodgers and Marino at the end or late in round 1. Brees was early round 2? I think it’s like buying lottery tickets. A high first rounder better give you 10,000 tickets. They can still fail and the 100 ticket guy in round 3 can still hit. The 2 ticket guy in round 6 can go to 10+ SBs. it’s why Daniel Jones was such a crap pick and why Josh Allen was a great pick. Jones never had the value or upside of a top 20 pick, let alone a top 6 pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrOaktown_56 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 hours ago, Kiwibrown said: Carr has been amazing if you look at him in the context of the coaches, the owner and the draft busts around him. It's definitely not all him, but the fact that we went 10-7 and snuck into the playoffs is crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, MrOaktown_56 said: It's definitely not all him, but the fact that we went 10-7 and snuck into the playoffs is crazy. We weren't a 10=7 team, probably closer to .500 without Ruggs (his numbers might not blow you away but the O because so much easier to play without a proper deep threat - when Desean cooked we drop 37 on the Boys). DC played fairly well but was meh down the stretch. Just played bad teams or teams like the Browns with no players at that time. That is why we shouldn't keep Bisaccia and need to upgrade areas of the team significantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Andy Dalton had an outside shot at being league MVP in 2015 before he got hurt he was absolutely worth that spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, Thelonebillsfan said: Andy Dalton had an outside shot at being league MVP in 2015 before he got hurt he was absolutely worth that spot. Yeah Carr had an outside shot in 2016 as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyld Stallyns Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 The Dalton Line (anyone above Dalton is a franchise QB, anyone below him is a potential franchise QB/project/bust) was created later in Dalton’s career with the Bengals. He showed promise for awhile. Earned draft status What could’ve been with Teddy. Bust Carr should’ve been a first rounder but slipped down for reasons I can only think had to do his brother’s failure and teams hesitation to commit to him. Earned draft status Jimmy G is an interesting one in that the Patriots rarely got to feel the benefit of having him until he got traded. Earned draft status IMO anyone taken in the third round or later who manages to stick around passed the “4 year rookie contract” outplayed their draft status. In some instances they might not even play a single NFL snap but that means they beat out others to maintain an NFL roster spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucsDraftGeek47 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 imo the only ones that didn't are Bridgewater and Brisset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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