Mind Character Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 "I couldn't tell you what his stats are; I don't look at stats...I sit down, watch the tape, and form my opinions. It's more important to see where the ball goes and where he's trying to throw it than some completion percentage or TD amount that tells you absolutely nothing." - Kyle Shanahan (on evaluating draft prospects) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Finding Relief? Like most Browns fans, I've been pretty down that this year's QB class (the one famed to be Legendary) was turning out to be garbage. Admittedly, I have not had the time to really watch every snap of the prospects due to a crazy work load. So, like most, I've been relying on the takes of those that "supposedly" have watched some of these games. The media takes have been that the QBs are really struggling (throwing INTs, having bad games, not looking like franchise material) and the few games/highlights that I've seen seemed to confirm these beliefs (**cough** confirmation bias **cough cough**). Over the last three weekends, 4 of my friends and I got together for shenanigans, drinks (Jameson & Crown Royale...you sneaky, beautiful, evil bastards), good times, and to really dig down on the film of the supposed QB prospects in the 2018 draft (pending end of the year decisions) as part of a podcast pet project we were trying to get going. All Film Watched was the Abbreviated/Abridged ALL22 version of each game available via my friend's (we call him "the whale") premium ESPN, FOXSPORTS, BTN, PAC12, etc Film packages. These games end up being about 45 minutes each which is amazing, and makes for easy watching of a few like sitting down and binging some movies. QBs Watched ( Sam Darnold, Clayton Thurson, Baker Mayfield Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Luke Falk, Riley Ferguson, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Findley) In short, WE WERE ABSOLUTELY RELIEVED &SHOCKED at what we saw especially from Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, & Clayton Thurson Based on the hot takes...Josh Allen is a mess and needs years and years of development....Sam Darnold has regressed and is a INT machine....etc ------------------------------------------------------ General Takeaways: 1. Josh Allen (Watch every snap this year...he's still the unicorn we need). He has ZERO help around him (he's playing with high school talent), but he does rare and elite things every game w/ escapability and WOW throws. His WRs are laughable and slip/fall down on plays routinely, aren't even looking for the ball, or run the wrong routes. He has to go out and win the game by himself every game. He makes bad throws from time to time, but there has never been a QB prospect with his combination of size, raw athleticism and arm power to come into the draft ever. Despite his woeful or MEH stats or games...it's all still on the tape this year (his franchise ability that is) and I would not have any problem taking him number 1 overall even with such bad stats and bad "performances" in big games. 2. Clayton Thurson (The total package) is the clear number 3 QB in the class above Josh Rosen despite having zero talent around him shows tremendous pocket movement, athleticism, accuracy, and the ability to make big time WOW throws. He runs a rugged offense, but will be a star on the next level. NO ONE is talking about this guy b/c his stats are MEH, but he is everything anyone could ever want in a QB. With more talent around him and usage in a pass pro set in college, he would clearly be considered for the number 1 overall pick imo. His middle of the field accuracy and touch is impressive. He misses low at times but is tremendously compact at the top of his drop and when he's not overstriding every thing he throws hits a receiver right in front of the facemask. 3. Sam Darnold's struggles and down season takes are laughable. Some mocks have him going in the teens in terms of draft slots if he comes out. He is the total package and gets happy feet resulting in INTs at times, but his foot quickness, pocket poise, intermediate route pin point accuracy, and explosive down field throwing is uncanny and rare. He's the second best anticipation thrower other than Rosen, but with the superior traits in everything else Rosen doesn't posses. He's the number 1 overall pick in any draft and his struggles in college are similar to that of Jameis Winston in his final season where he threw 18INTs and Matt Ryan threw 19INTS in his final one. You'd like for that number to be a lot lower but it doesn't take away the supreme skill displayed by those QBs ultimately making them Number 1 picks...and it will be the same way for Darnold. 4. Josh Rosen is a dink and dunk specialist w/ unbelievable pinpoint accuracy ability over the middle of the field. Throw with great anticipation. His yardage comes on short routes, screens and quick outs. His brand of football is not going to translate in a down the field power offense like Hue's but Rosen will make one of the best West Coast QB prospects to ever come out...His NFL OC has to scheme quick throws to hide his limited athleticism and blitz avoidance ability but in an Andy Reid type system Rosen would be a star. In a Todd Haley, steelers type of system Rosen would absolutely flop and be garbage. At UCLA the middle of the field is wide open like he's throwing with his friends in the backyard...when things get condensed in the box his throws don't look as nice and his arm power deficiency is evident. Not a fatal flaw based on his overall feel for the game and ability to throw well before the WR comes open. 5. Baker Mayfield Tremendous competitive fire and throws a beautiful deep ball off of play action. However, he is a spread QB fabrication via consensus of me and my friends although one of my boy's thinks Baker is the number 1 overall pick in the draft. We think he's crazy b/c so much of his successes are predicated on total spread alignments and WR, pick and stick, half field reading. Slow with his eyes on progressions and has a hard time powering the ball through throwing lanes within the pocket on comeback routes and boundary timing routes which are mainstays of an nfl passing game. 6. Lamar Jackson has taken unbelievable strides in one year of development but has light years to go and still sails balls high and misses WRs badly due to regression of mechanics. His once narrow base, tippytoe delivery is now wider, more balanced and grounded...his feet movement and pass set now process his progression and he whippy arm has even gotten stronger. If he can continue his yearly developmental pace, by year 3 he'll be the best QB out of the bunch. Still at this time it's a major projection...and a risky one. 7. Mason Rudolph has taken major steps in his development but has slow eyes and does not have any sense of pressure or pocket poise. It all comes undone for him with pressure but with a clean pocket he is deadly and shocked me with his pinpoint accuracy over the field. Blitz avoidance and awareness is some of the worst I've seen which generally means you will not have success in the nfl game. ------------------------------------------ In summary, I feel absolute relief now that even if Sam Darnold doesn't come out, that Josh Allen or Clayton Thurson at least have franchise QB talent (they may however stay in school as well), but at this point I'm comfortable that if we were to take 1 of those 3 that we would have found our franchise QB. Post-watch 2018 QB Rankings: Elite of Elite 1. Sam Darnold ----------------------- The Franchise 2. Clayton Thurson 3.Josh Allen ---------------------- Franchise Upside 4. Josh Rosen ---------------------- Developmental QB1 5a. Baker Mayfield 5b. Lamar Jackson 6a. Mason Rudolph 6b. Luke Falk ----------------------- Developmental Starter 7. Riley Ferguson 8. Ryan Finley --------------------------------------------------------------------- Conclusions: This is not the year of the pretty, perfect QB where the stats, and wins all point to which QB one should take. This is more of a Jameis Winston/Matt Ryan year where traits analysis will win the day on who should be taken. In the end, we might see a QB with the worse stats and game wins go first (Josh Allen) and it may end up being a really wise decision. Beyond Darnold....Josh Allen is still the guy....it will not be a popular opinion especially if his numbers keep trending in the same direction but I have never been more certain of an opinion and I'm not the only one. Clayton Thorson is my sleeper and I'd love to get him in the 2nd round if we pass on QBs in the 1st. He is the most complete QB at this time and going to be special at the next level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NudeTayne Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Great post. I can't see us not taking a passer in the first round, though I could see if there is muddiness at the end of the season & we have, say, picks #1 and #7 that we throw in one of our 2nds to move up, take Barkley #1 and a passer at #3-5 or so, this all assuming Darnold goes back to school. I don't want a project of any kind at quarterback for the Browns; thus, I either want to sign Cousins or draft a passer high. Even though Thurston may be a sleeper, I would still grab him top-10 if we believe in him; the hope that he falls is too big of a risk if we have no one at qb. P.S.: This is all assuming that neither Allen or Thurstyn are being talked about as surefire top-5. I wouldn't want to risk if it both were projected to go top-3ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mind Character Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 I could definitely see a scenario where we take Saquon number 1 or 2 and then select Thurson or Allen with our other hopefully top 10 pick. "But Allen's stats...." "But his games against big time competition..." Ball don't lie...tape don't lie...Josh Allen has still done absolute unicorn stuff in every game.. If it came down to going Thurson or Allen with our other pick based on the game film I've seen to this point...I might have to go Thurson b/c of the supposed off field intangibles and apex leadership abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Good write up @Mind Character. I actually read the whole thing. Keep em coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioG Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 A+ post F level topic title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 I’m glad you’re willing to admit Rosen can be a star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztec Hammer Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 I agree with the majority of your post. I think you're spot on in the main. I'm a Darnold guy but your evaluation of Josh Allen... I see a lot of the same things. I'm probably a bit more worried about him than you are because those terrible decisions stick around in my mind. But oh my god some of those throws and the athleticism... so reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers. Just that rare sort of throwing ability that you literally can't help but say wow out loud when you see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwibrown Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 50 minutes ago, candyman93 said: I’m glad you’re willing to admit Rosen can be a star. when i watched rosen I wasn't impressed. He seems like a top shelf Kessler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Kiwibrown said: when i watched rosen I wasn't impressed. He seems like a top shelf Kessler. Just because a guy doesn’t launch it 50 yards every play doesn’t mean he’s a Cody Kessler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwibrown Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 @Mind Character Could you see QB's go 1,2,3 in this draft? Trade from no 1 overall to 2. Take the second best QB. Use draft ammo to go up for Barkley from the texans pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwibrown Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Just now, candyman93 said: Just because a guy doesn’t launch it 50 yards every play doesn’t mean he’s a Cody Kessler. no. he has better mobility than Kessler, and maybe better strength, but he doesn't have that ability to break tackles in the pocket, like Kizer or big Ben. He is accurate, but doens't have a cannon for an arm. i dont think he is a Hue QB, I think he needs a west coast coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztec Hammer Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said: no. he has better mobility than Kessler, and maybe better strength, but he doesn't have that ability to break tackles in the pocket, like Kizer or big Ben. He is accurate, but doens't have a cannon for an arm. i dont think he is a Hue QB, I think he needs a west coast coach. He's awesome throwing across the middle of the field. Great timing and touch. Throwing outside it gets a bit more iffy. He doesn't have a power arm and he's thrown a few lame duck picks. I wasn't overwhelmed in the live games I've watched of him this season. I think he has a chance to be an Eli-type QB in the right system and have that similar sort of good but streaky play. I wouldn't be mad at it but I'd prefer my number one overall QB to have a more physically dominant skill set. Darnold or Allen is what I'd go for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cattleman78 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 I mentioned Thurson a few weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 I just don’t want projects anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 I haven't gotten to watch much of Darnold, but I've heard he's not quite living up to the hype. Is he legitimately struggling, or are his flaws just being overblown like they have been for past top QB prospects? I remember some people nitpicking Andrew Luck's game, even though he was about as good of a prospect as you'll find at QB. Is this the same case for Darnold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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