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Rich7sena

Raiders 2018 Free Agency Thread

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I figure since my timely draft thread was unceremoniously locked, I'll start a free agency thread. The Raiders' playoff outlook is in peril even with a win on Sunday. I figure we take a look at what the Raiders will be confronting in the early offseason and what they might do about it.

Data from: Spotrac.com

Predicted 2018 Cap Room: 4,118,154 (27th)

Potential Raiders Free Agents

  • Aldon Smith
    • I don't see him returning. He fades into the ether.
  • Reggie Nelson
    • Nelson walks (retires) with both Luani and Melifonwu on the roster.
  • Sebastian Janikowski
    • Tavecchio has been just as good as Janikowski at a fraction of the price.
  • Lee Smith
    • Smith be be 30 by the time the 2018 offseason hits, but the Raiders have no real replacement for his blocking. He gets brought back on a 2-3 year deal.
  • Denice Autry
    • He's having an up year in what has been an up and down career. If Ward was trustable, Autry would be an easy walk. That said, Reggie has let guys like Autry (McGee, Mayowa) go before. I think he's a walk.
  • Jon Condo
    • If he wants to come back, sure why not.
  • E.J. Manuel
    • He's a serviceable backup and is probably a re-sign if Cook continues to not be a viable spot starter.
  • Demetrius McCray
    • Staff specifically went and got this guy during the season so I assume they'll want him to stick around even if it's just for the next 1-2 seasons.
  • Justin Ellis
    • Considering the revolving door the Raiders have at defensive line it would be hard to imagine Ellis coming back. Especially when he should be able to make more in the open market.
  • Keith McGill
    • Byeee.
  • T.J. Carrie
    • Priority re-sign in my eyes. Can't count on him being a "starter" long term, but he's the best the team has at the position.
  • Navarro Bowman
    • Probably a re-sign? Either that or he toils in free agent purgatory like every other 30-ish year-old 2-down linebacker.

Potential Cuts

  • Sean Smith: $8,250,000 savings
    • Good as gone.
  • Seth Roberts: $2,450,000 savings
    • Roberts got rewarded before the season with a generous extension. He hasn't lived up to it.
  • Marshawn Lynch: $2,250,000 savings
    • Hasn't added much to the offense and limits the offense as a receiver when he's on the field. Maybe he can finish the year strong, but it may be high time to really invest in the position via the draft.
  • Clive Walford: $710,646 savings
    • More of a ceremonial release than one to expand the cap. Walford has failed to live up to being more than an occasional flash in the pan.
  • David Amerson: $6,500,000 savings
    • Like Smith, Amerson has struggled since being rewarded with an extension two seasons ago. He'll be hard to let go considering the paltry depth at corner on the roster.

Potential Signings:

  • Corner: It's no secret the Raiders need to re-build their cornerback corps from the ground up. T.J. Carrie and Gareon Conley are the only guys I'd count on being on the team for the next 2 seasons. The team will be especially needy if Amerson is traded in the scenario above.
    • Truman Johnson, 27
      • Probably priced out but either the Rams or another, less cash strapped team.
    • Malcolm Butler, 27
      • See above.
    • Vontae Davis, 29
      • Davis is the first realistic option I could see the Raiders nabbing. He'll likely be viewed as a veteran past his prime but we've seen players like him revitalize their careers with a change in scenery.
    • Kyle Fuller, 25
      • He's had a bit of a resurgent final year of his rookie deal in Chicago. I could see him sign on with a team on a one-year "prove it" deal ala Morris Claiborne; I'd hope that team is the Raiders.
    • Morris Claiborne, 27
      • Claiborne proved last year's performance wasn't a fluke and he's easily an above average starting corner in the NFL. He'd be a good potential replacement for Amerson.
    • Bashaud Breeland, 25
      • Given his reputation for consistency since his rookie year, Breeland will likely command a pretty hefty contract in free agency. I expect the Raiders to be priced out.
    • Prince Amukamara, 28
      • Hard to imagine the Bears starting over at corner by not re-signing either Amukamara or Fuller. Both have been having one of if not the best year of their respective careers. The odd man out deserves a look by the Raiders.
    • Davon House, 28
      • Reggie Packer link will never die. Mercurial career but is apparently starting and playing okay for the Pack this year.
    • Rashaan Melvin, 28
      • PFF says he's played well for the Colts when healthy. He fits the size profile Reggie likes.
    • E.J. Gaines, 25
      • Gaines has been part of a formidable Bills' corner duo when healthy. Might command a nice contract from a willing bidder.
    • Ross Cockrell, 26
      • Competent starter in the absence of Janoris Jenkins for the Giants. He's a 6'-er with shortish arms (30").
  • Defensive Line: TK
  • Linebacker: TK

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44 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I figure since my timely draft thread was unceremoniously locked, I'll start a free agency thread.

You've been around long enough to know we lock duplicate threads....its nothing personal.  You bring a lot to the forum and we're fortunate to have you around for threads like that and like this. :)

 

Now. ON topic. I think you nailed almost everything, 100%. My 2 cents:

- Doesn't make sense to cut Walford yet; Cook hasn't proved to be reliable thus far and Walford can still develop into trade bait or starter

- CB is tough; I've looked into potential FAs as well and worry about who we sign as none of the options are particularly enticing.  Thats even before other teams make their moves. Carrie, I'd like to keep but I think he winds up costing too much.  I think you're right about Amerson.  He's meh on the field and can't even stay on it.  We can't just draft another because we'd be the greenest of the green all over the defensive backfield.

- Also would like to hold onto Jelly and Autry but could see them going away for the reasons you outlined.  I just feel like letting them go literally creates holes that we might not be able to fill.  I hope Reggie doesn't keep on with the tradition you mentioned.

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Quote

 

Now. ON topic. I think you nailed almost everything, 100%. My 2 cents:

- Doesn't make sense to cut Walford yet; Cook hasn't proved to be reliable thus far and Walford can still develop into trade bait or starter

- CB is tough; I've looked into potential FAs as well and worry about who we sign as none of the options are particularly enticing.  Thats even before other teams make their moves. Carrie, I'd like to keep but I think he winds up costing too much.  I think you're right about Amerson.  He's meh on the field and can't even stay on it.  We can't just draft another because we'd be the greenest of the green all over the defensive backfield.

- Also would like to hold onto Jelly and Autry but could see them going away for the reasons you outlined.  I just feel like letting them go literally creates holes that we might not be able to fill.  I hope Reggie doesn't keep on with the tradition you mentioned.

 

I don't think Walford will get cut, but he's definitely a candidate -- especially if Lee is brought back. I'd be happy to bring in Davis or Fuller. Fuller was probably my highest rated corner coming into the draft before Jalen Ramsey. If Amerson gets traded and/or Carrie signs elsewhere, signing at least one free agent corner is a virtual must.

I really wanted the team to bring back Shelby Harris and Stacy McGee, but Reggie doesn't seem inclined to retain home grown talent on the defensive line. I think Ellis has a better chance to get re-signed because he was drafted by McKenzie, but I it might come down to Ellis vs. Carrie, and I think Carrie wins that one.

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17 minutes ago, SimonGruber said:

Bruce Irvin is another potential goner no ?

Not without another competent edge to take his place. There is a potential out in 2018 which would save the Raiders over $8 million, but I’d say Irvin is worth about that much to the team right now. He’s not making the pass rushing impact he was brought in to be but he’s still been a competent starter opposite Mack.

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I would rather just cut Amerson and save the $6 million if all we get is a 7th.  His contract is fully guaranteed the 3rd day of the league year 2018.  He has zero dead money if cut prior.

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3 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I would rather just cut Amerson and save the $6 million if all we get is a 7th.  His contract is fully guaranteed the 3rd day of the league year 2018.  He has zero dead money if cut prior.

You're right, I was looking at the 2017 figures. I don't think Amerson should be cut if Carrie isn't re-signed. Even if Carrie is re-signed Amerson would be a tough cut.

I'd only feel comfortable cutting Amerson if the team lands at least one veteran corner in free agency.

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What about Penn? He's not playing well this season.

And i'm not quite sure why we felt the need to give Roberts a new contract before this season

Edited by oakdb36

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2 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

What about Penn? He's not playing well this season.

And i'm not quite sure why we felt the need to give Roberts a new contract before this season

Without a trustable heir, I think he plays out his contract. The Raiders should be in range of drafting a starting left tackle (Brown, Williams, McGlinchey), but I think they believe Sharpe can develop into that.

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1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

Without a trustable heir, I think he plays out his contract. The Raiders should be in range of drafting a starting left tackle (Brown, Williams, McGlinchey), but I think they believe Sharpe can develop into that.

None of the players who received extensions are playing to the level of their new contracts.  If there is a top talent LT we need to take them and not rely on Sharpe.  If he is developing to the point you feel comfortable having him as the LT of the future then they should not have extended Penn.  He would probably be an improvement over Penn so far even if he is not that good.

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2 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

None of the players who received extensions are playing to the level of their new contracts.  If there is a top talent LT we need to take them and not rely on Sharpe.  If he is developing to the point you feel comfortable having him as the LT of the future then they should not have extended Penn.  He would probably be an improvement over Penn so far even if he is not that good.

False. Penn hasn’t been a problem. He’s not elite like he has been but he’s still pretty good. That being said he’s on a decline and it would be nice to have a succession plan in place and that’s not Sharpe. The Raiders need to have an elite offensive line because if they don’t Carr’s going to be much worse. 

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I agree with the most part!

 

FA:

A.Smith probably will stay where he is...with the team, without pay...I can't see him returning to football tho

Nelson needs to retire IMO, he is just too slow.

Jano is good to go with Tavecchio...just business you know...

Lee Smith could be back as you suggest, but I don't like the penalyties he collects this year...we were just fine with the 6OL formations last year without him...

Autry should be back if he accepts a reasonable deal. He is no real starter, he is a solid situational piece.

Condo still good, so should be back IMO

Manuel should be back IMO

McCray will probably stick till TC at least

Ellis should be back if he accepts a solid NT money. He is that, a 2 down NT. If he wants heavy DT money, he will be gone.

McGill could be back as an ST guy IMO. If Karl and Obi can be the starting duo, McGill might be able to stick as depth with Luani. We will need to bring in competition don't get me wrong...

Carrie should be back! He is our best CB right now, we need to keep him!

Bowman could be back, he seems to be solid, however there is no improvement to our D play, so he is not essential IMO.

 

Cuts:

Sean and Amerson needs to go IMO.

Walford and Roberts should stick IMO. We need to bring in guys to their positions, but should not dump them before we have upgrades in place.

Lynch will retire or stick at least till TC IMO.

 

I can't see us being players in FA with Mack, Carrie, maybe Autry, Jelly, Bowman...

Keep ours and nail the draft Reggie!!!

 

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Let Walk:

Nelson - Past the expiration date. Great leader, but with Obi, Luani coming up no need to resign.

McGill - No value added, you can find depth/ST players elsewhere

Janikowski - Nothing but respect and admiration for this man. I will tear up when he leaves, but have to get younger and think long term

Resign:

Smith - Inexpensive and adds toughness you want.

Ellis - Like McGee before him, if another team wants to overpay, let them. But he's a good rotational player

Carrie - Still young, plays focused and is the teams best open field tackler. He has a role here

Manuel - Solid backup. Cook looks like a 1 contract player. Maybe has some trade value at some point.

Autry - Like it here, solid role player. Underrated to some degree

Bowman - Replace leadership role voided by Nelson. Good 2 down LB and great for a young unit. 

TBD:

Amerson - Hard to say 'cut him' when the CB depth is so poor. Only 25, let's see if a new DC (please football gods, let there be a new DC) can reignite him. He has skills but playing down like a number of players this season.

Smith - Easy cut. Overpaid and struggling. 

Lynch - Good story, but c'mon.... he's not the guy he was and the Raiders are thirsty for lead back. They screwed up IMO bringing him in when the RB class was so robust. Obi better be a star, because I was banging the table for Kamara from day 1 and he's becoming a legit weapon in NO. 

Penn - He's serviceable, has another year on his deal. Unless there is value in moving on, 1 more year is okay. But find a younger depth player.

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Patterson was a waste of money. How much is he making? 6 or 7 million... imagine signing a stud defensive starter for that money. Patterson is a flashy and talented, but a luxury. He made a couple of big plays, but just a hand full. Hell, we had jaydon mickens for dirt cheap and now is a stud for the jaguars 

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24 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

Patterson was a waste of money. How much is he making? 6 or 7 million... imagine signing a stud defensive starter for that money. Patterson is a flashy and talented, but a luxury. He made a couple of big plays, but just a hand full. Hell, we had jaydon mickens for dirt cheap and now is a stud for the jaguars 

He's making $5.6 this year and $3.25 next. He's a candidate for sure but I'd rather keep him for that price. He's been good on special teams and provides the occasional big play.

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