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OzPackfan off season mock v2.0


OzPackfan

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Given the first domino has fallen with Hackett going to Denver, time for version 2.0 of my mock off season

Pre start of the league year (Over the cap by 57.024m after ERFA options are taken up)

  • Max 14.865m restructure of Kenny Clark's salary/roster bonus - Saves 11.148m of cap space
  • Restructure 10.5m of David Bahktiari's roster bonus - Saves 7.875m of cap space
  • Restructure 5m of Adrian Amos salary -  Saves 3.75m
  • Restructure 4.5m of Aaron Jones roster bonuses - Saves 3m of cap space
  • Restructure 3.6m of Billy Turner's salary - Saves 2.7m of cap space
  • Restructure 3.6m of Dean Lowry's salary - Saves 2.7m of cap space
  • Cut Randall Cobb - Saves 6.858m of cap space
  • Extend Jaire Alexander on a 4 year 76m deal - Saves 7.6m of cap space
  • Cut Za'Darius Smith  - Saves 15.281m of cap space
  • Cut Preston Smith - Saves 12.5m of cap space
  • Cut Mason Crosby - Saves 2.395m of cap space
  • Cut Mercedes Lewis - Saves 2.445m of cap space
  • Tag Davante Adams - Costs 20.12m

Net position at start of the new league is Packers are 1.44m under the cap

 

Free Agency starts:

  • Trade Aaron Rodgers to Denver for 2022 (pick 9), 2023 1st round pick, 2024 conditional 2nd round pick (increase to 1st round if Broncos win SB in either 2022 or 2023) plus TE Albert O - creates 18.922m of cap space
  • Trade Davante Adams to Denver for 2022 2nd round pick (pick 63), 2022 3rd round pick (pick 75), plus WR Jerry Juedy - creates cap space of 18.128m
  • Re-sign De'Vondre Campbell on a 2 year 21m deal (+1 void year) - Cap hit in 2022 of 7.308m
  • Re-Sign Rasul Douglas on a 2 year 10m deal (+1 void year) - Cap hit in 2022 of 3.5m
  • Re-sign Robert Tonyan on a 2 year 11m deal (+1 void year) - Cap hit in 2022 of 5.379m
  • Re-Sign Allen Lazard  on a 2 year 8.5m deal (+ 1 void year) - Cap hit in 2022 of 3.35m
  • Re-sign Za'Darius Smith on a 2 year 35m deal (+2 void years) - Cap hit in 2022 of 7.25m

Net position at end of free agency is that Packers are 13.803m under the cap (top 51 rule) and have 54 players under contract 

 

Draft

Taking into account projected compensation picks, Packers head to the draft with the following picks: 9,28,60,63,75,92,125,133,164,198,236,240,251

Packers trade picks 28,63,92 to New Orleans for pick 18

Packers trade picks 133,240,251 to Houston for pick 127

 

Pick 9 selection - David Ojabo Edge Michigan

Pick 18 selection - Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa

Pick 60 selection - Kyler Gordon CB Washington

Pick 75 selection - Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan

Pick 125 selection - Damarri Mathis S Pittsburgh

Pick 127 selection - Justyn Ross WR Clemson

Pick 164 selection - Sevyn Bank CB Ohio State

Pick 198 selection - Luke Tenuta OL Virgina Tech

Pick 236 selection - Dontario Drummond WR Ole Miss

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This is literally the exact path I don't want Packers to go down, its the worst of all worlds.  We need to either:

  • 1.  Retain Rodgers and use whatever restructures and cap kicking options we can use to make the team as strong as possible in 2022
  • 2. Move on from Rodgers, go with Love and clean the cap. Minimal cap kicking and void years and so on

We aren't contending with Love, that is no knock on him, Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year as a starter. 

Every restructure and void year makes the team worse in 2023 and 2024. It makes no sense to me to do a load of cap kicking in a year when you aren't going to challenge.  Weakening the 2023 team to turn a 5-12 into a 7-10 in 2022 is really bad use of resources. If we move on from Rodgers then fine but we need to live within our means in 2022. Don't expect miracles from Love, just want to see potential he can be good in 2023. If he fails then you go QB in the draft.

Signing someone like Z. Smith (who is old and coming off a back injury) on a heavily backdated contract with void years, in a season we aren't competing is just a horrible move in my opinion.  I could maybe live with some cap kicking to keep a young guy with the arrow up.  If we kept Rodgers and it was all in again then still wouldn't bring him back but it would make a bit more sense.

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7 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

This is literally the exact path I don't want Packers to go down, its the worst of all worlds.  We need to either:

  • 1.  Retain Rodgers and use whatever restructures and cap kicking options we can use to make the team as strong as possible in 2022
  • 2. Move on from Rodgers, go with Love and clean the cap. Minimal cap kicking and void years and so on

We aren't contending with Love, that is no knock on him, Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year as a starter. 

Every restructure and void year makes the team worse in 2023 and 2024. It makes no sense to me to do a load of cap kicking in a year when you aren't going to challenge.  Weakening the 2023 team to turn a 5-12 into a 7-10 in 2022 is really bad use of resources. If we move on from Rodgers then fine but we need to live within our means in 2022. Don't expect miracles from Love, just want to see potential he can be good in 2023. If he fails then you go QB in the draft.

Signing someone like Z. Smith (who is old and coming off a back injury) on a heavily backdated contract with void years, in a season we aren't competing is just a horrible move in my opinion.  I could maybe live with some cap kicking to keep a young guy with the arrow up.  If we kept Rodgers and it was all in again then still wouldn't bring him back but it would make a bit more sense.

The void years kick 9.95m down the road to 2024 and 3.75m down the road to 2025. Given the new TV deal, it isn't a lot of money to kick down the road

The restructures required to get under the cap kick more down the road then the void years.

Both combined, the Packers would still have approx 65-70m of cap space in 2023 and 135m of cap space in 2024 (that's before any additional rises in cap due to the new tv deal or re-signing of Jenkins, Gary, Savage, Love)

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The thing I don't get is you are cutting Z.Smith which costs you 12.4m then you are resigning him on a 2 year 35m deal with a cap hit of 7.25m, thus you are paying him out almost $20m in cap charges for 2022. I would prefer to do an extension where his 14.5m salary is converted to a signing bonus, add a couple of years to the deal pay him something like 35m that you mentioned, plus the 12m signing bonus for a three year deal in essnce and bring his cap charges down to around 6m for 2022.

Also I'm firmly in the camp that you don't trade Adams and Rodgers. This model, as others and you have shown, is how you comfortably get under the cap without blowing up the roster. I would get Rodgers and Admas deals that are cap friendly for 2022 which should lead to similar if not more cap space for 2022. You can't trade away your best assests. We don't need to do a hard reset to keep ourselves competitive. And as much as everyone is pissed at Rodgers in playoff football mode, he is still our best chance of winning it all and it is too soon to move on from him.   

Edited by Brit Pack
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3 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

The thing I don't get is you are cutting Z.Smith which costs you 12.4m then you are resigning him on a 2 year 35m deal with a cap hit of 7.25m, thus you are paying him out almost $20m in cap charges for 2022. I would prefer to do an extension where his 14.5m salary is converted to a signing bonus, add a couple of years to the deal pay him something like 35m that you mentioned, plus the 12m signing bonus for a three year deal in essnce and bring his cap charges down to around 6m for 2022.

Also I'm firmly in the camp that you don't trade Adams and Rodgers. This model, as others and you have shown, is how you comfortably get under the cap without blowing up the roster. I would get Rodgers and Admas deals that are cap friendly for 2022 which should lead to similar if not more cap space for 2022. You can't trade away your best assests. We don't need to do a hard reset to keep ourselves competitive. And as much as everyone is pissed at Rodgers in playoff football mode, he is still our best chance of winning it all and it is too soon to move on from him.   

There is no way you can get Za’Darius Smith’s cap charge below 12.38m (this is the dead cap charge for cutting him)

Cutting him helps you get under the cap to tag and trade Adams, and you then bring him back once that is done.

As for Rodgers/Adams, I’m of the belief we keep as good a defensive unit as possible and reset on offence with Love and a rushing game plan

Edited by OzPackfan
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2 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

There is no way you can get Za’Darius Smith’s cap charge below 12.38m (this is the dead cap charge for cutting him)

Cutting him helps you get under the cap to tag and trade Adams, and you then bring him back once that is done.

As for Rodgers/Adams, I’m of the belief we keep as good a defensive unit as possible and reset on offence with Love and a rushing game plan

It's pretty much in Rodger's hands.  If he still wants to be "be paid" to stay then make the "package" deal with Adams to Denver.  That being said, I hope he stays but if not there had better be some type of QB competition plan as Love is a HUGE unknown.   Don't like the idea of trading a 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounder for a mid 1st round pick .. #18; 3 players for 1 just doesn't cut it for me.  Good effort though. 

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A few comments

I think if you intend on tagging and trading Davante, you aren't required to account for that cost. The tag would be applied, but Adams would just not sign it. Players aren't penalized for not signing the tag until camp starts, if I recall correctly. It would be a handshake agreement to send him to Denver, and Denver would have an understanding of how much he would play for. So long as you traded him before free agency, he wouldn't count anything against GB's cap. That being said, I think you're expecting a lot for the Adams trade. Even big name pass rushers who get tagged and traded only fetch a couple mid round picks, and you're expecting a 2nd, 3rd, and a 15th overall pick. for the right to negotiate with Adams. 

I hate the restructure of Jones, Turner, and Lowry. Pushing dead cap into void years just makes me cringe, why prolong a rebuild? Especially with Jones, are we really going to take a  $9-10m dead cap hit with him when he's cut in 2023? Talk about painful. I'd much rather cut who we need and get on with the rebuild.

As far as a restructure of Bakh, I understand it. Heck, I've done it myself,  and its probably a necessary move this offseason. But I'm starting to have serious concerns about his knee, and I'm hesitant to push his cap hits out any farther than absolutely necessary. 

What is the purpose of signing Lazard to a long term deal? A 2nd round tender for him is only $4m, your deal only saves 650k, and ends up costing a little more on the back end. I just don't see how it benefits the Lazard or the Packers.

Tonyan, I would think he plays on a 1 year prove it deal. 

Rasul and Campbell, I would think they both want something longer than 2 year deals

Z Smith - You have a net savings of $8m from his cut and resign. Did you compare this cost to extending Preston? I would think it would be cheaper to extend Preston and a better value, given their production. Additionally, what's the point of keeping defenders over the age of 30 going into a rebuild? Z Smith will be on the downslide when this team is ready to compete again, won't he?

Overall, on the cap moves I'm pretty sour. I know you (and a lot of others in this forum) are optimistic about the TV deal money coming to save us, but I'm not. That money will be needed to handle new deals for people like Gary, Jenkins, or even Jordan love (when he tears up the league). I want every resource available to this team in 2023 to know for sure that it wasn't the team that holds back Love.

The draft seems ok, but what's the direction? Adding a top-100 pick to be the 4th CB? Mathis would play behind Savage and Amos? I'm all for depth in the secondary, but using a top 100 pick seems like a odd use of resources. I also worry we left the Dline a little bare. We would lose Mercilus, Preston, and Keke and replace that with just a single pick.

Sorry for the long comment, I just feel like you tried too hard to rebuild and reload in the same offseason. I'd love to hear more about your strategy going into the offseason.

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12 hours ago, pgwingman said:

 Even big name pass rushers who get tagged and traded only fetch a couple mid round picks, and you're expecting a 2nd, 3rd, and a 15th overall pick. for the right to negotiate with Adams. 

They aren't simply trading for Adams though. They are trading for an ingrained part of Packer (institutional) memory, which has been wildly successful. No NFL team wouldn't give up 3 first rounders to get the combo of Rodgers and Devante, I promise you. Yes, there are better players that have been traded for, but the time those two have spent together is literally priceless.

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On 1/28/2022 at 12:40 AM, OzPackfan said:

The void years kick 9.95m down the road to 2024 and 3.75m down the road to 2025. Given the new TV deal, it isn't a lot of money to kick down the road

The restructures required to get under the cap kick more down the road then the void years.

Both combined, the Packers would still have approx 65-70m of cap space in 2023 and 135m of cap space in 2024 (that's before any additional rises in cap due to the new tv deal or re-signing of Jenkins, Gary, Savage, Love)

Why sign Z. Smith if you are rebuilding?

It makes zero sense.  Adding a void year just makes it even more ridiculous. In my opinion.  And I'm sorry but I strongly disagree with any buy now, pay next deal if we are  rebuilding. 

Edit - Everyone's entitled to their opinion and appreciate not everyone wants a full rebuild which is fair enough. Just like I said, for me its the opposite of what we should be doing. Its not going to produce a winning team in 22 and its hurting the team from 23+ so the worst of all worlds. 

Edited by mikemike778
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On 1/28/2022 at 11:06 AM, pgwingman said:

A few comments

I think if you intend on tagging and trading Davante, you aren't required to account for that cost. The tag would be applied, but Adams would just not sign it. Players aren't penalized for not signing the tag until camp starts, if I recall correctly. It would be a handshake agreement to send him to Denver, and Denver would have an understanding of how much he would play for. So long as you traded him before free agency, he wouldn't count anything against GB's cap. That being said, I think you're expecting a lot for the Adams trade. Even big name pass rushers who get tagged and traded only fetch a couple mid round picks, and you're expecting a 2nd, 3rd, and a 15th overall pick. for the right to negotiate with Adams. 

I hate the restructure of Jones, Turner, and Lowry. Pushing dead cap into void years just makes me cringe, why prolong a rebuild? Especially with Jones, are we really going to take a  $9-10m dead cap hit with him when he's cut in 2023? Talk about painful. I'd much rather cut who we need and get on with the rebuild.

As far as a restructure of Bakh, I understand it. Heck, I've done it myself,  and its probably a necessary move this offseason. But I'm starting to have serious concerns about his knee, and I'm hesitant to push his cap hits out any farther than absolutely necessary. 

What is the purpose of signing Lazard to a long term deal? A 2nd round tender for him is only $4m, your deal only saves 650k, and ends up costing a little more on the back end. I just don't see how it benefits the Lazard or the Packers.

Tonyan, I would think he plays on a 1 year prove it deal. 

Rasul and Campbell, I would think they both want something longer than 2 year deals

Z Smith - You have a net savings of $8m from his cut and resign. Did you compare this cost to extending Preston? I would think it would be cheaper to extend Preston and a better value, given their production. Additionally, what's the point of keeping defenders over the age of 30 going into a rebuild? Z Smith will be on the downslide when this team is ready to compete again, won't he?

Overall, on the cap moves I'm pretty sour. I know you (and a lot of others in this forum) are optimistic about the TV deal money coming to save us, but I'm not. That money will be needed to handle new deals for people like Gary, Jenkins, or even Jordan love (when he tears up the league). I want every resource available to this team in 2023 to know for sure that it wasn't the team that holds back Love.

The draft seems ok, but what's the direction? Adding a top-100 pick to be the 4th CB? Mathis would play behind Savage and Amos? I'm all for depth in the secondary, but using a top 100 pick seems like a odd use of resources. I also worry we left the Dline a little bare. We would lose Mercilus, Preston, and Keke and replace that with just a single pick.

Sorry for the long comment, I just feel like you tried too hard to rebuild and reload in the same offseason. I'd love to hear more about your strategy going into the offseason.

The bolded is incorrect, if a player is tagged the cap space must be available to do so. 

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1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I thought teams had until the first day of the new league year to get under the cap?  The franchise tag can be applied a few weeks prior to that date. 

He stated tag and trade, a trade cannot be done until the new league begins. So, if he is tagged the money will need to be accounted for regardless of if he is trade one second into the new league year. There is no way to get around not accounting for the cost of the tag.  

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8 minutes ago, R T said:

He stated tag and trade, a trade cannot be done until the new league begins. So, if he is tagged the money will need to be accounted for regardless of if he is trade one second into the new league year. There is no way to get around not accounting for the cost of the tag.  

You cant tag a guy you cant afford.

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18 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

Why sign Z. Smith if you are rebuilding?

It makes zero sense.  Adding a void year just makes it even more ridiculous. In my opinion.  And I'm sorry but I strongly disagree with any buy now, pay next deal if we are  rebuilding. 

Edit - Everyone's entitled to their opinion and appreciate not everyone wants a full rebuild which is fair enough. Just like I said, for me its the opposite of what we should be doing. Its not going to produce a winning team in 22 and its hurting the team from 23+ so the worst of all worlds. 

IMO the rebuild happens on offence.

 

We should be keeping the same defence together for as long as possible so that we still have a chance at the playoffs whilst the offence is being rebuilt around Love

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