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What do we do at Edge in 2022?


Karnage84

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The Lions have a lot of interesting questions for the upcoming year. We hold the #2 spot in the draft and are expected to take either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux. What would this mean for the other guys on the roster?

1) Charles Harris: Had a breakout season and is still relatively young. It is hard to see the Lions not trying to bring him back (assuming he doesn't get a monster deal elsewhere). 

2) Romeo Okwara: Coming back from injury with a $14M cap hit, he played principally on the left side (but has shown versatility). What do we do with him with the drafting of Hutch/KT and/or signing of Harris?

3) Trey Flowers: He has a cap hit of $24M. Very strong cut or trade candidate for this season. Still played generally well

4) Austin Bryant and/or Julian Okwara

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I'd try to bring back Charles Harris. Cut Flowers. Personally, if a team was willing to offer a good deal for Hutchinson or Kayvon, I'd be willing to trade out of #2. I'd love for the Lions to get Kyle Hamilton. I think he's special. Him and Eric Berry are the two best safety prospects since Sean Taylor. I like the EDGE talent in the 30 to 50 range. Jermaine Johnson from FSU is a guy I particularly like. Great run defender who has the potential to be a good pass rusher as well.

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8 hours ago, jrry32 said:

I'd try to bring back Charles Harris. Cut Flowers. Personally, if a team was willing to offer a good deal for Hutchinson or Kayvon, I'd be willing to trade out of #2. I'd love for the Lions to get Kyle Hamilton. I think he's special. Him and Eric Berry are the two best safety prospects since Sean Taylor. I like the EDGE talent in the 30 to 50 range. Jermaine Johnson from FSU is a guy I particularly like. Great run defender who has the potential to be a good pass rusher as well.

What about Romeo Okwara? Good player but feels like a good chunk of change for his production

Romeo 

2021 - 73.3 OVR; 58.0 RDEF; 79.7 PRSH - 1 sack; 16 pressures on 90 pass rush snaps > 1.1% sack rate; 17.8% pressure rate

2020 - 68.8 OVR; 45.0 RDEF; 84.5 PRSH - 10 sacks; 61 pressures on 424 pass rush snaps > 2.3% sack rate; 14.4% pressure rate

2022 Cap Hit = $14.5M ($1.45M/sack; $237,705/pressure > using 2020 stats)

*If we scaled up his 2021 year production with the # of snaps (424/90 = 4.7x) = 5 sacks; 75 pressures

Charles Harris

2021 - 68.2 OVR; 60.7 RDEF; 78.6 PRSH - 8 sacks; 52 pressures on 447 snaps > 1.8% sack rate; 11.6% pressure rate

---------------------------------------------

Compared to some other top pass-rushers

TJ Watt, Pittsburgh

2021 - 89.5 OVR; 70.1 RDEF; 90.6 PRSH - 22 sacks; 62 pressures on 413 pass rush snaps > 5.3% sack rate; 15% pressure rate

2022 Cap Hit - $31M ($1.41M/sack; $500k/pressure)

Shaquil Barrett

2021 - 82.6 OVR; 74.3 RDEF; 81.0 PRSH - 11 sacks; 75 pressures on 485 pass rush snaps > 2.3% sack rate; 15.5% pressure rate

2022 Cap Hit = $19.75M ($1.8M/sack; $263,333/pressure)

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3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

What about Romeo Okwara? Good player but feels like a good chunk of change for his production

Romeo 

2021 - 73.3 OVR; 58.0 RDEF; 79.7 PRSH - 1 sack; 16 pressures on 90 pass rush snaps > 1.1% sack rate; 17.8% pressure rate

2020 - 68.8 OVR; 45.0 RDEF; 84.5 PRSH - 10 sacks; 61 pressures on 424 pass rush snaps > 2.3% sack rate; 14.4% pressure rate

2022 Cap Hit = $14.5M ($1.45M/sack; $237,705/pressure > using 2020 stats)

*If we scaled up his 2021 year production with the # of snaps (424/90 = 4.7x) = 5 sacks; 75 pressures

Charles Harris

2021 - 68.2 OVR; 60.7 RDEF; 78.6 PRSH - 8 sacks; 52 pressures on 447 snaps > 1.8% sack rate; 11.6% pressure rate

---------------------------------------------

Compared to some other top pass-rushers

TJ Watt, Pittsburgh

2021 - 89.5 OVR; 70.1 RDEF; 90.6 PRSH - 22 sacks; 62 pressures on 413 pass rush snaps > 5.3% sack rate; 15% pressure rate

2022 Cap Hit - $31M ($1.41M/sack; $500k/pressure)

Shaquil Barrett

2021 - 82.6 OVR; 74.3 RDEF; 81.0 PRSH - 11 sacks; 75 pressures on 485 pass rush snaps > 2.3% sack rate; 15.5% pressure rate

2022 Cap Hit = $19.75M ($1.8M/sack; $263,333/pressure)

Okwara's contract basically guarantees he's back. We'll see how he looks coming off the injury. Prior to it, I'd call him a good but not great EDGE. If he can be that again, the Lions are in a good spot with him, Harris, a draft pick, Julian Okwara, and other depth.

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Just now, jrry32 said:

Okwara's contract basically guarantees he's back. We'll see how he looks coming off the injury. Prior to it, I'd call him a good but not great EDGE. If he can be that again, the Lions are in a good spot with him, Harris, a draft pick, Julian Okwara, and other depth.

I just figured the $14M is a bit on the high side but compared to what you get for your money, it's not bad. With his return and Harris' emergence there is somewhat of a logjam at the LEO/REO position especially if you bring in Hutchinson or Thibodeaux. It's a good problem to have but certainly something to be worked out. 

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This staff has said they will play a system that best suits it’s players opposed to fitting a square peg in a round hole. I think if we have a lot of edge players, we may have to switch up the scheme a bit to get them all snaps.  I think Flowers and Romeo O are not in the long term plans so this year we will be fine if we don’t have to rush our top pick into a full time role.  Hopefully they earn it by the end of the year but it’s ok to have depth in case they don’t.  I’d like to see Harris back if he signs a reasonable deal but if not he is an easy choice to leave.  He had a solid year but Okwara if healthy and #2 should be better and Julian O is looking ready to step up.  Sucks losing production but not sure he is worth the money to bring back. 
 

 

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Just now, Sllim Pickens said:

This staff has said they will play a system that best suits it’s players opposed to fitting a square peg in a round hole. I think if we have a lot of edge players, we may have to switch up the scheme a bit to get them all snaps.  I think Flowers and Romeo O are not in the long term plans so this year we will be fine if we don’t have to rush our top pick into a full time role.  Hopefully they earn it by the end of the year but it’s ok to have depth in case they don’t.  I’d like to see Harris back if he signs a reasonable deal but if not he is an easy choice to leave.  He had a solid year but Okwara if healthy and #2 should be better and Julian O is looking ready to step up.  Sucks losing production but not sure he is worth the money to bring back. 
 

 

Spotrac has Harris' valuation at $8.6M. 

If we do draft Hutch or Thibodeaux at #2, presume their 2022 cap hit would be around $6.5M (based on Chase Young's contract). 

  • Romeo - $14.5
  • Harris - $8.6* Estimate
  • #2 Pick - $6.5
  • Julian - $1.3
  • Austin - $1.1

Total = $32M (15% of cap)

If you keep Flowers at his cap hit, you're looking at 27% of the whole cap tied up in Edge guys. You can get off of Romeo's contract next year much easier. 

I'm thinking that Flowers is going to get cut with a post-June 1st designation and wind up in Houston (assuming Flores is hired there). 

 

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9 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Spotrac has Harris' valuation at $8.6M. 

If we do draft Hutch or Thibodeaux at #2, presume their 2022 cap hit would be around $6.5M (based on Chase Young's contract). 

  • Romeo - $14.5
  • Harris - $8.6* Estimate
  • #2 Pick - $6.5
  • Julian - $1.3
  • Austin - $1.1

Total = $32M (15% of cap)

If you keep Flowers at his cap hit, you're looking at 27% of the whole cap tied up in Edge guys. You can get off of Romeo's contract next year much easier. 

I'm thinking that Flowers is going to get cut with a post-June 1st designation and wind up in Houston (assuming Flores is hired there). 

 

I don’t mind having 27% tied up on edge guys if they produce.  Also having cheaper talent elsewhere helps.  Drafting right and getting guys like AO to produce on rookie deals is how to win and be able to afford studs like LA did.  They have drafted well and then splurge on Von Miller and Ramsey.  Once their youth needs second contracts, they are in trouble though. 

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On 1/31/2022 at 2:13 PM, Karnage84 said:

The Lions have a lot of interesting questions for the upcoming year. We hold the #2 spot in the draft and are expected to take either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux. What would this mean for the other guys on the roster?

1) Charles Harris: Had a breakout season and is still relatively young. It is hard to see the Lions not trying to bring him back (assuming he doesn't get a monster deal elsewhere). 

2) Romeo Okwara: Coming back from injury with a $14M cap hit, he played principally on the left side (but has shown versatility). What do we do with him with the drafting of Hutch/KT and/or signing of Harris?

3) Trey Flowers: He has a cap hit of $24M. Very strong cut or trade candidate for this season. Still played generally well

4) Austin Bryant and/or Julian Okwara

1.  I think it is pretty much a certainty that Trey Flowers will be released.  He is a great locker room guy and a solid player but we can't afford to pay him for his production level.

2. Austin Bryant should be released Austin Bryant hasn't consistently produced despite being healthy.  He had plenty of opportunity to step up.  He hasn't shown that he is anything more than a rotational player.

3.  Charles Harris needs to be re-signed.  He signed a prove-it deal and he proved it.  He was pretty solid against the run and provided a steady pass-rush presense.He is 26 years old and three-year deal would keep him here in his prime years.

4.  This is a critical off-season for Julian Okwara.  He was finally healthy and flashed here and there but much like Austin Bryant, hasn't become a consistent force on our D-Line.  He needs to show he can be something more than a rotational player

5.  Romeo Okwara's game was built on speed and translating speed to power.  When healthy, he is a disruptive presence off the edge.  Assuming he can come back from his Achilles injury.  I think for the Lions to maximize his effectiveness, they need to have a consistent disruptive presence on the interior of their defense.  Alim McNeil can provide part of that but they need another player to provide more interior D-Line disruption.

6.  At this point, there seem to be six consensus first-round edge players:  Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, George Karlaftis (under-rated), David Ojablo (raw), Travon Walker (could slide out of Rd 1) and Jermaine Johnson.  Any of these players would be impact players on our team at this point but who the better long-term fit happens to be what Brad Holmes has to figure out.  Logan hall might be a power-DE that will be available after the first round.

We could use a power DE and a fast/dynamic edge rusher so it really depends how Brad Holmes evaluates the various prospects.  Personally, if they could swing a trade-back but still stay in the top 8 picks that would be a solid outcome for the Lions.

 

Edited by Just Want A Title
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