PRE-SENIOR BOWL MOCK WITH A LOOK AT 2023

[Karnage84]

LET WALK

• Trey Flowers - post June 1st cut designation ($7.2M cap hit; $16M cap room)
• Alex Anzalone
• Nick Williams
• Tyrell Crosby
• Khadarel Hodge
• Will Holden
• Shaun Dion Hamilton
• Joel Heath
• David Blough
• CJ Moore
• Tim Boyle
• Matt Nelson
• Ryan McCollum
• Dean Marlowe
• Rashod Berry
• Tom Kennedy

RE-SIGN

• Tracy Walker - 3 years x $2.25M
• Charles Harris - 3 years x $8.6M (2022 Cap Hit $4M)
• Josh Reynolds - 2 years x $2.5M
• Jalen Reeves-Maybin - 2 years x $1.3M
• Jason Cabinda - $2.4M (OR Tender)
• Evan Brown - RFA Tender - $965k
• Jack Fox - ERFA Tender - $895k
• Jessie Lemonier - ERFA Tender - $895k
• Godwin Igwebuike - ERFA Tender - $895k
• Brock Wright - ERFA Tender - $825k
• Tommy Kraemer - ERFA Tender - $825k
• Jalen Elliott - ERFA Tender - $825k
• Riley Patterson - ERFA Tender - $825k
• Mark Gilbert - ERFA Tender - $825k
• Bobby Price - ERFA Tender - $895k
• Scott Daly - ERFA Tender - $825k

2021 Cap Room - $9.8M

2022 Cap Room (including above moves): $31.1M

Total Cap Space = $40.9M

FREE AGENCY ($11M to Draft - $25M available)

• Marcus Williams, FS - 4 years x $14M ($6M 2022 Cap Hit)
• DJ Chark, WR - 4 years x $11M ($4M Cap Hit)
• Anthony Walker, ILB - 3 years x $6M ($4M 2022 Cap Hit)
• Maliek Collins, DT - 2 Years x $4M ($4M 2022 Cap Hit)
• Maxx Williams, TE - 2 Years x $6M ($3M 2022 Cap Hit)
• Trevor Siemian, QB - 1 Year x $1M

Total Free Agency = $22M

Total Cap Room = $7.9M + $11M Draft

 

DRAFT

1 (2) - Aidan Hutchinson, OLB, Michigan

1 (32) - Drake London, WR, USC

2 (34) - Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State

3 (66) - Chad Muma, ILB, Wyoming

3 (97) - Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State

5 (176) - Jesse Luketa, Edge, Penn State

5 (180) - Cade Mays, IOL, Tennessee

6 ( 217) - PJ Mustipher, DT, Penn State

7 (230) - Juanyeh, Thomas, S, Georgia Tech

7 (238) - D'Jordan Strong, CB, Coastal Carolina

 

OFFENSE

QB - Goff, Siemian

RB - Swift, Williams, Reynolds, Igwebuike

FB - Cabinda

WR - Chark, Cephus

SWR - ARSB

WR - LONDON, Reynolds

TE - Hockenson, Williams, RUCKERT, Wright

LT - Decker

LG - Jackson, MAYS

OC - Ragnow, Brown

RG - Vaitai, Kraemer

RT - Sewell

 

DEFENSE

LEO - HUTCHINSON, J. Okwara, LUKETA

DT - Collins, Onwuzurike

DT - Brockers, McNeill, MUSTIPHER

REO - Harris, R. Okwara, Bryant

ILB - Barnes, Reeves-Maybin

ILB - Walker, MUMA

CB - Oruwariye, Melifonwu, Price

SCB - Parker

CB - Okudah, Jacobs, Gilbert, STRONG

FSL - Walker, BRISKER

FSR - Williams, Harris, THOMAS

ST

K - Patterson

P - Fox

LS - Daly

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Karnage84

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

• Tracy Walker - 3 years x $2.25M
• Charles Harris - 3 years x $8.6M (2022 Cap Hit $4M)
• Josh Reynolds - 2 years x $2.5M
• Jalen Reeves-Maybin - 2 years x $1.3M
• Jason Cabinda - $2.4M (OR Tender)

• Walker: Can be brought back at a reasonable rate. There's room in this defensive scheme to run 2-3 safeties
• Harris: Had a nice year last year. Brought back at somewhat of a reasonable rate. Gives the team flexibility in being able to move off of Romeo Okwara in 2023
• Reynolds: Was a significant contributor in the improvement of Goff and the offense. Brought back on a reasonable deal
• JRM: Brought back as a reliable option in the middle on a cheap deal
• Cabinda: The Lions are one of the few teams using a true FB. Cabinda was a decent contributor. Signed at Original Round Tender

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

FREE AGENCY ($11M to Draft - $25M available)

• Marcus Williams, FS - 4 years x $14M ($6M 2022 Cap Hit)
• DJ Chark, WR - 4 years x $11M ($4M Cap Hit)
• Anthony Walker, ILB - 3 years x $6M ($4M 2022 Cap Hit)
• Maliek Collins, DT - 2 Years x $4M ($4M 2022 Cap Hit)
• Maxx Williams, TE - 2 Years x $6M ($3M 2022 Cap Hit)
• Trevor Siemian, QB - 1 Year x $1M

• Williams: Seems to be the consensus #1 FA target for the group. Would be the QB of this defense and is paired back with Glenn. Instant impact in coverage. 
• Chark: A WR1 candidate that can be paired with Reynolds and ARSB. Gives the Lions a more potent target on the offense
• Walker: Our interior LB's need major improvement, especially in coverage. 69.1 OVR PFF with 78.2 Coverage Grade (compared to Anzalone's 35.4 and 50.2 Coverage Grade)
• Collins: Our defensive interior needs a replacement for Nick Williams. Collins is a young (27) veteran that comes in with decent size (6'2, 308) that also comes in with some pass rushing ability - 31 pressures (Williams - 15) and 3 sacks (Williams - 1) with a pass rushing grade of 71.0. 
• Williams: Brought in as a compliment to Hock and some future proofing as TJ is up for his 5th year option this season. 
• Siemian: Comes in from New Orleans (despite missing DC's tenure) to back up Goff. Jared played well enough down the last stretch to be viewed as the QB for 2022. Lions eye the 2023 draft for a potential QBOTF

[Karnage84]

14 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

DRAFT

1 (2) - Aidan Hutchinson, OLB, Michigan

1 (32) - Drake London, WR, USC

2 (34) - Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State

3 (66) - Chad Muma, ILB, Wyoming

3 (97) - Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State

5 (176) - Jesse Luketa, Edge, Penn State

5 (180) - Cade Mays, IOL, Tennessee

6 ( 217) - PJ Mustipher, DT, Penn State

7 (230) - Juanyeh, Thomas, S, Georgia Tech

7 (238) - D'Jordan Strong, CB, Coastal Carolina

1 (2) - Aidan Hutchinson, OLB, Michigan: Great local talent at a premier position. Should lock down a significant role on this defense for years to come

1 (32) - Drake London, WR, USC: Premier WR in the mold of Mike Evans/Michael Pittman. A great trio of Chark/ARSB/London with depth (Reynolds, Cephus)

2 (34) - Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State: Tons of opportunities to play as the 3rd safety in the slot. Replaces Harris (who played a ton of snaps in 2021) as a SCB, SS, Nickel LB

3 (66) - Chad Muma, ILB, Wyoming: Stout run defender (91.1) that offers a lot in coverage (77.7) with great size. Will either get paired up with Barnes or replace him

3 (97) - Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State: A possible Hock replacement in the event he may want to explore FA. Gives the team flexibility at the position. Has ability to develop (as opposed to picking a guy at #8)

5 (176) - Jesse Luketa, Edge, Penn State: Played a ton at LOLB at Penn State. Future replacement for Austin Bryant. Has some versatility to also play inside

5 (180) - Cade Mays, IOL, Tennessee: A developmental OG. Could eventually replace Vaitai

6 ( 217) - PJ Mustipher, DT, Penn State: Stout run defender at 6'4, 326. Developmental guy that can play either DT spot or NT

7 (230) - Juanyeh, Thomas, S, Georgia Tech: A developmental LB/S prospect. Excellent on ST

7 (238) - D'Jordan Strong, CB, Coastal Carolina: Developmental outside CB prospect. I believe we should try to add pieces at RB and/or CB every year or every other year. Let's our coaches continue to develop with an eye on possibly having to replace Okudah down the road

[Louis Friend]

I love it. 

Everyone you let walk, I would as well.

Lions Free Agents- I think Walker gets a bigger contract, but for that price, I bring him back.

I like the draft picks. I pray Drake London falls to #32. I've been advocating for either London or Burks since day 1. But now others have caught up and they are projected to go mid-1st rd. I like Brisker, Muma, Ruckert and Mays as well. If that were to happen, it would be a damn good draft. I am salivating over this draft. 

Free agency- Marcus Williams, backup QB, backups TE, depth along the DL. Solid as hell.

Overall, great job and realistic. Kudos. 

[Lions017]

It's cute that you think that Walker signs for anywhere near that. $2.5M? I wouldn't be shocked if he gets three to five times that, no joke. 

[Karnage84]

Just now, Lions017 said:

It's cute that you think that Walker signs for anywhere near that. $2.5M? I wouldn't be shocked if he gets three to five times that, no joke. 

Over The Cap has him valued at $2.9M. We've seen safeties get undervalued at times and with a 65.1 PFF score, Walker is good but he's not a game changer in the same way that someone like Marcus Williams can be.

https://overthecap.com/player/tracy-walker/6967/

[Karnage84]

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2023

KEY CUTS

• Michael Brockers - $1.95M Dead Cap; $10M of New Cap Space

KEY RE-SIGNINGS OF FREE AGENTS

• TJ Hockenson - 4 years x $13M
• Amani Oruwariye - 4 years x $8.4M
• Craig Reynolds - ERFA

LET WALK

• Will Harris
• Austin Bryant
• Jamal Williams

QUESTION MARKS

• Jared Goff - $10M Dead Cap; $20M New Cap Space
• Hal Vaitai - $3.4M Dead Cap; $7.7M New Cap Space

TEAM NEEDS (PROJECTED)

QB, IOL, RB, OT, DT, CB

2023 DRAFT

QB'S:https://www.profootballnetwork.com/early-look-at-2023-nfl-draft-qb-prospects-bryce-young-cj-stroud/

• Tier 1: Bryce Young (Alabama) > Pick 1 - 5, CJ Stroud (Ohio State) > Pick 2-4
• Tier 2: Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) > Pick 3, Jake Haener (Fresno State) > Pick 7, Jaren Hall (BYU) > Pick 32
• Tier 3: Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina) > N/A; Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) > N/A; Will Levis (Kentucky) > Pick 12; DJ Uiagelelei (Clemson) > N/A
• Not Listed: Phil Jurokovec (Boston College) > Pick 8 - 22; Tyler Van Dyke (Miami - FL) > Pick 27; Anthony Richardson (Florida) > #5

One mock has seven 1st round QB's; most have 2-3. 

Assuming that the Lions finish around 0.500 with our pick at #16 and the Rams finish in the bottom, pick #29. 

OPTION A - TRADE UP INTO TOP 5; CUT JARED GOFF

Pick #16 - 1000 pts

Pick #29 - 640 pts

Pick #5 = 1700 pts

Select 

CJ Stroud - 92.5 OVR

Bryce Young - 92.4 OVR

*Likely would need to include another pick (2nd or 3rd)

OPTION B - PICK AT ORIGINAL  #16; KEEP JARED GOFF 

• Spencer Rattler, South Carolina - 86.1 OVR
• Anthony Richardson, Florida
• Jake Haener, Fresno State - 78.9 OVR
• Will Levis, Kentucky - 90.6OVR
• Tyler Van Dyke, Miami - 75.5 OVR
• Jaren Hall, BYU - 89.2 OVR

[NFL_Fan]

CANT COMPLAIN. GOOD WORK!!! I like FA...draft...signings and cuts...and 2023. Good job man

[Just Want A Title]

You did some really great work with this.  I agree with all of your let-walks except Matt Nelson (he may still have some upside).  I would sign Folunroso Fatukasi instead of Maliek Williams.  Your draft was pretty good.  I am a big fan of Jaquan Brisker.  Drake London is a skilled receiver but I am hoping we bring in a legitimate vertical threat.  Chad Muma would be a solid pick-up in the 3rd.  

[Louis Friend]

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Over The Cap has him valued at $2.9M. We've seen safeties get undervalued at times and with a 65.1 PFF score, Walker is good but he's not a game changer in the same way that someone like Marcus Williams can be.

https://overthecap.com/player/tracy-walker/6967/

I think Walker is very overrated amongst Lions fans/media. He is average at best. The only way I would be okay with re-signing him is if it was a cheap deal like you provided. 

[Karnage84]

32 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I think Walker is very overrated amongst Lions fans/media. He is average at best. The only way I would be okay with re-signing him is if it was a cheap deal like you provided. 

Safeties in general are undervalued. Adams is the top guy at $17M. Diggs is around $6-8M. I like Walker and the pairing of him and Williams but he's not worth $6-8M. If he gets a Jarrad Davis deal, I'm ok if he walks. 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

You did some really great work with this.  I agree with all of your let-walks except Matt Nelson (he may still have some upside).  I would sign Folunroso Fatukasi instead of Maliek Williams.  Your draft was pretty good.  I am a big fan of Jaquan Brisker.  Drake London is a skilled receiver but I am hoping we bring in a legitimate vertical threat.  Chad Muma would be a solid pick-up in the 3rd.  

Appreciated. Nelson might be a guy kept around in a revision. He didn't rate high and I felt we could find other developmental guys. 

I wanted to improve our pass rush up the middle. Fatukasi had a down year but was really good last year especially against the run. Collins provides more as a pass rusher. 

Reynolds is only signed to a 2 year deal and WR5 is Cephus. There's room to add a deep threat.

[diehardlionfan]

👍 That is probably the best overall mock I’ve seen. Really, really good job. You have no idea how thrilled I would be with the first three picks.

You've even detailed an excellent QBOTF strategy if they want to move on from Goff.

[Karnage84]

7 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

👍 That is probably the best overall mock I’ve seen. Really, really good job. You have no idea how thrilled I would be with the first three picks.

You've even detailed an excellent QBOTF strategy if they want to move on from Goff.

I really appreciate high praise, especially coming from yourself. Means a lot. 

I just had a bunch of thoughts running through my head and I'd start putting together different mock scenarios that didn't seem to make a ton of sense. I always felt like I was double dipping or I'd forget about guys coming back like Romeo. So I started breaking it all out in the other draft pick thread and worked out the spots that were up for grabs. I looked at what I wanted to improve and how to accomplish that. I also wanted to build a foundation of young talent mixed in with younger veterans. Focus on defense was to shore up against the run and improving our coverage. Walker and Muma are both vast improvements over Anzalone (and Barnes) in this area. Having that QB of the D in Williams helps to shore things up. Let Okudah compete for a spot. If not, we have guys who can fit the role. Oruwariye continues his ascension to being a legit NFL CB1. Lots of young guys in that secondary who have been developing and showing a lot. 

In terms of Goff, if he can play like he did the last few weeks and he's surrounded with better talent then he can be "the guy" in 2022 and in 2023. He's signed up until 2024. He's not a PFF darling by any means but he did win NFC player of the week and still wound up with a 60.0 something rating from PFF. I use PFF quite a bit but it is just one tool of many and not fully indicative of what happened on the field.