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Post-Senior Bowl QB Draft Status


Just Want A Title

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I read the article below today and it had a pretty harsh evaluation of this year's QB class.  It basically says that none of the QBs this year are not legitimate starting QB prospects:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/2022-nfl-draft-evaluators-crush-173658284.html

It seems like any QB that isn't ready to start in their first year are now judged pretty harshly.  Is the group of top QBs really that bad?  Personally, it seems like Pickett could be a Joe Flacco-type QB.  Willis needs to sit for a year to get used to running an NFL offense and work on his accuracy but does have a lot of potential.  Ridder needs to get stronger and get used to the speed of NFL games.  

The rest of the QBs don't seem to be that talented.  Is the talent-level really that bad?

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1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

I read the article below today and it had a pretty harsh evaluation of this year's QB class.  It basically says that none of the QBs this year are not legitimate starting QB prospects:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/2022-nfl-draft-evaluators-crush-173658284.html

It seems like any QB that isn't ready to start in their first year are now judged pretty harshly.  Is the group of top QBs really that bad?  Personally, it seems like Pickett could be a Joe Flacco-type QB.  Willis needs to sit for a year to get used to running an NFL offense and work on his accuracy but does have a lot of potential.  Ridder needs to get stronger and get used to the speed of NFL games.  

The rest of the QBs don't seem to be that talented.  Is the talent-level really that bad?

I watched as much of the Senior Bowl as I could, which wound up being maybe half of the game (it was 13-0 and Howell was our QB at that point). 

Willis essentially looked to me like 'Lamar Jackson without the passing'. He was running around and making plays but he couldn't throw if his life depended on it. Ridder seemed to be the best guy out there but he also comes with his own faults/question marks.

This is a really good year for us to have someone like Jared Goff and his last 6 weeks as our QB as opposed to having been force fit to try and find one in the draft and/or some mid-tier FA or trade for a bust (like Panthers and Darnold) hoping to spark something. We can build out the roster and (ideally) get some competent (albeit not dominant) QB play and then plug someone into a strong foundation. I've been hearing not great things about the 2023 class outside of Stroud and Young but Burrow came out of nowhere and Herbert has vastly surpassed expectations. We have the draft capital to acquire 'the guy' when we identify them. 

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I like Willis and Pickett, but probably not enough to take them at 2. At the same time, I think they'll both go before the Rams pick, so we're in a pickle. Willis could certainly be a good fit on a run-first team and turn into a Lamar Jackson type for us. I love his potential and what he could do to the offense. Pickett I think will be solid, possibly even a Kirk Cousins type when it's all said and done. 

If they like the tools of one of these guys (or one of the other QB's in the draft) then we are a good fit, IMO, as we wouldn't need to force someone to start this year. Goff can hold down the fort until they're ready. We also have a pretty strong offensive line and it looks like we'll be adding some weapons - a good line and a run first offense make it a lot easier for a young QB to step in. Maybe they like the arm talent of someone like Strong, for instance - if he's going to succeed anywhere it's on a team with a good line. 

I guess the fear is that I think we add enough talent to the roster to not end up with a top pick next year. If we end up picking somewhere like...12th, for instance, you end up having to give up a ton of future ammo to move up and get Young/Stroud. 

I don't think that '22 is as horrible as people are saying. Willis is a legit prospect, and I think that Pickett is a Mac Jones type of prospect. I'm pretty confident that a couple of the top guys (Pickett/Willis/Corral/Ridder/Strong/Howell) will be good, it's just really hard to figure out who...

Right now I'd go...

Tier 1: Willis, Pickett (Top 15)
Tier 2: Corral (Round 1)
Tier 3: Howell, Ridder, Strong (Round 2-3)

Edited by Lions017
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I like Willis and Pickett, but not in the first round. I think either could go in the first round just because this draft class lacks quality QBs. None of them are worth #2. I don't like any of the guys projected after them. I'd rather sign a FA backup and go into next years draft looking for a QB. 

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3 hours ago, Lions017 said:

I like Willis and Pickett, but probably not enough to take them at 2. At the same time, I think they'll both go before the Rams pick, so we're in a pickle. Willis could certainly be a good fit on a run-first team and turn into a Lamar Jackson type for us. I love his potential and what he could do to the offense. Pickett I think will be solid, possibly even a Kirk Cousins type when it's all said and done. 

If they like the tools of one of these guys (or one of the other QB's in the draft) then we are a good fit, IMO, as we wouldn't need to force someone to start this year. Goff can hold down the fort until they're ready. We also have a pretty strong offensive line and it looks like we'll be adding some weapons - a good line and a run first offense make it a lot easier for a young QB to step in. Maybe they like the arm talent of someone like Strong, for instance - if he's going to succeed anywhere it's on a team with a good line. 

I guess the fear is that I think we add enough talent to the roster to not end up with a top pick next year. If we end up picking somewhere like...12th, for instance, you end up having to give up a ton of future ammo to move up and get Young/Stroud. 

I don't think that '22 is as horrible as people are saying. Willis is a legit prospect, and I think that Pickett is a Mac Jones type of prospect. I'm pretty confident that a couple of the top guys (Pickett/Willis/Corral/Ridder/Strong/Howell) will be good, it's just really hard to figure out who...

Right now I'd go...

Tier 1: Willis, Pickett (Top 15)
Tier 2: Corral (Round 1)
Tier 3: Howell, Ridder, Strong (Round 2-3)

If the QB class is viewed to be as weak as has been reported, we'll probably see more moves to acquire veteran guys and that the group will drop in favour of more talented players at other positions. 

2021 - 5 Starters; 3 Backups

2020 - 4 Starters; 1 Backup

2019 - 3 Starters

None of the 2022 class seems to be "staring year 1" material, but someone is going to try and force it. 

Teams that don't have a starting QB

1.Tampa Bay - Brady has retired. Trask is unproven and Gabbert is a career backup.

2. Pittsburgh - Roethlisberger is retired. Going to need to acquire someone

3. New Orleans - Winston and Hill are options; need a better option but are in cap trouble and build for the future

4. Denver - Bridgewater and Lock, can use an upgrade

5. Carolina - Darnold is an option, can use an upgrade

6. Washington - Heinecke is an option, could use an upgrade

 

Atlanta and Minnesota are probably going to try and find a guy to develop for the future. 

Veterans who could/should be available

  • Jimmy G - Already looking for a trade partner
  • Aaron Rodgers - Seems to be on his way out of GB but undecided at this time
  • Kyler Murray - Has taken down all of his Cardinals related social. Could be made available if things sour in Arizona
  • Russell Wilson - Could try to force himself out of Seattle
  • Derek Carr - Seems to be involved in trade rumours; could be a reliable veteran upgrade 
  • Lamar Jackson - Hasn't worked out his contract situation with Baltimore. Could be a trade target if things stall
  • Deshaun Watson - Depending on his legal issues could be viewed as a major upgrade

SF - Has Lance on the roster

GB - Has Love on the roster

ARI - Would need to add a QB

SEA - Would need to add a QB

LV - Would need to add a QB

BAL - Huntley on roster

HOU - Davis Mills played well enough to be given a shot to compete but could be replaced with a veteran option

This would add 3 other teams into the mix but arguably could satisfy their needs with these trades (6 QB's for 3 new spots). 

 

 

 

Edited by Karnage84
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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

If the QB class is viewed to be as weak as has been reported, we'll probably see more moves to acquire veteran guys and that the group will drop in favour of more talented players at other positions. 

2021 - 5 Starters; 3 Backups

2020 - 4 Starters; 1 Backup

2019 - 3 Starters

None of the 2022 class seems to be "staring year 1" material, but someone is going to try and force it. 

Teams that don't have a starting QB

1.Tampa Bay - Brady has retired. Trask is unproven and Gabbert is a career backup.

2. Pittsburgh - Roethlisberger is retired. Going to need to acquire someone

3. New Orleans - Winston and Hill are options; need a better option but are in cap trouble and build for the future

4. Denver - Bridgewater and Lock, can use an upgrade

5. Carolina - Darnold is an option, can use an upgrade

6. Washington - Heinecke is an option, could use an upgrade

 

Atlanta and Minnesota are probably going to try and find a guy to develop for the future. 

Veterans who could/should be available

  • Jimmy G - Already looking for a trade partner
  • Aaron Rodgers - Seems to be on his way out of GB but undecided at this time
  • Kyler Murray - Has taken down all of his Cardinals related social. Could be made available if things sour in Arizona
  • Russell Wilson - Could try to force himself out of Seattle
  • Derek Carr - Seems to be involved in trade rumours; could be a reliable veteran upgrade 
  • Lamar Jackson - Hasn't worked out his contract situation with Baltimore. Could be a trade target if things stall

SF - Has Lance on the roster

GB - Has Love on the roster

ARI - Would need to add a QB

SEA - Would need to add a QB

LV - Would need to add a QB

BAL - Huntley on roster

This would add 3 other teams into the mix but arguably could satisfy their needs with these trades (6 QB's for 3 new spots). 

 

 

 

I mostly agree. I think that there will be a lot of movement this year. Even many of the teams looking to draft a guy will probably sign a veteran. 

I do think that Pickett can potentially step in and be serviceable. He seems a bit more experienced and polished than the other guys. Willis is a project (but a very talented one) and I think that guys like Howell/Corral have some bad habits to unlearn with how often they scramble. 

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6 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

I mostly agree. I think that there will be a lot of movement this year. Even many of the teams looking to draft a guy will probably sign a veteran. 

I do think that Pickett can potentially step in and be serviceable. He seems a bit more experienced and polished than the other guys. Willis is a project (but a very talented one) and I think that guys like Howell/Corral have some bad habits to unlearn with how often they scramble. 

  • Pickett - 52 Starts, 6'3, 217 Lbs; 1998 Birthday (24) < As of September 1st, 2022
  • Willis - 35 Games; 6'0, 220 Lbs (23)
  • Howell - 37 Games; 6'0, 221 Lbs (22)

In contrast, Lamar Jackson is going to be 25 years old (drafted at 21 with 4 years in league) while Josh Allen will be 26 (drafted at 22 with 4 years in league). 

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2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:
  • Pickett - 52 Starts, 6'3, 217 Lbs; 1998 Birthday (24) < As of September 1st, 2022
  • Willis - 35 Games; 6'0, 220 Lbs (23)
  • Howell - 37 Games; 6'0, 221 Lbs (22)

In contrast, Lamar Jackson is going to be 25 years old (drafted at 21 with 4 years in league) while Josh Allen will be 26 (drafted at 22 with 4 years in league). 

This feels like a draft where 1 or 2 guys will come out of this as being "not bad" to "average" starters while the rest of the teams will be looking to find a replacement in 1-3 years. There's also going to be that one "Derek Carr/Jalen Hurts/Dak Prescott/Russell Wilson" guy that will be taken middle of the pack and just come out of nowhere. 

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10 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

This feels like a draft where 1 or 2 guys will come out of this as being "not bad" to "average" starters while the rest of the teams will be looking to find a replacement in 1-3 years. There's also going to be that one "Derek Carr/Jalen Hurts/Dak Prescott/Russell Wilson" guy that will be taken middle of the pack and just come out of nowhere. 

Carr was taken at the top of the 2nd and it wasn't a huge shock if I remember correctly.  I could see us doing something similar if one of these guys falls that we really like.  I like Strong or Zappe in the third.  Also wouldn't mind Levis there.  I don't see any of these guys as starters but we need a back up and all have solid backup with potential to be a starter type prospect.  

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2 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

I like Willis and Pickett, but not in the first round. I think either could go in the first round just because this draft class lacks quality QBs. None of them are worth #2. I don't like any of the guys projected after them. I'd rather sign a FA backup and go into next years draft looking for a QB. 

I basically agree with all of this.


I pretty much don't want anything before the third and would prefer to wait until next year unless one of these guys falls to the 5th or below. Then I could stomach it better. I really would much rather we see what we have in Goff and surround him with talent. There really are only 3 qb's in the draft I would be willing to kick the tires on and it's Pickett, Willis and Howell. I think Pickett is a poor mans Goff. Willis has huge bust potential imo, but I do admit he has some crazy athleticism. I honestly don't think he will be in the league 5 years from now. Howell is my dark horse in this race, I could see him being a quality backup. At best I feel like this year you take the qb who can come in and get you some wins in a backup role, but I don't want to spend any capital before the 3rd if at all.

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Just sharing this for anyone else that might be curious. I know completion % is always brought up at this time as an issue for guys moving up. 

Howell 

  • Completion %: 63.8%
  • Y/A: 9.2
  • TD:INT: 4:1 (92:23)

Pickett

  • Completion %: 62.4%
  • Y/A: 7.3
  • TD:INT: 2.5:1 (81:32)

Willis

  • Completion %: 62.8%
  • Y/A: 8.4
  • TD:INT: 2.67:1 (48:18)

 

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33 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Just sharing this for anyone else that might be curious. I know completion % is always brought up at this time as an issue for guys moving up. 

Howell 

  • Completion %: 63.8%
  • Y/A: 9.2
  • TD:INT: 4:1 (92:23)

Pickett

  • Completion %: 62.4%
  • Y/A: 7.3
  • TD:INT: 2.5:1 (81:32)

Willis

  • Completion %: 62.8%
  • Y/A: 8.4
  • TD:INT: 2.67:1 (48:18)

 

For some context about Malik Willis, consider Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.  He played at the University of Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference.  That wasn't exactly the highest level of competition.  Now, consider his stats from https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html.  I think Malik Willis has shown similar potential to Josh Allen.  Personally, I get the feeling a lot of folks will be kicking themselves on this one.

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Wyoming         365 649 56.2 5066 7.8 7.7 44 21

137.

2015 Wyoming MWC SO QB 2 4 6 66.7 51 8.5 8.5 0 0 138.1
*2016 Wyoming MWC SO QB 14 209 373 56.0 3203 8.6 8.3 28 15 144.9
*2017 Wyoming MWC JR QB 11 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8
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4 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

For some context about Malik Willis, consider Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.  He played at the University of Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference.  That wasn't exactly the highest level of competition.  Now, consider his stats from https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html.  I think Malik Willis has shown similar potential to Josh Allen.  Personally, I get the feeling a lot of folks will be kicking themselves on this one.

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Wyoming         365 649 56.2 5066 7.8 7.7 44 21

137.

2015 Wyoming MWC SO QB 2 4 6 66.7 51 8.5 8.5 0 0 138.1
*2016 Wyoming MWC SO QB 14 209 373 56.0 3203 8.6 8.3 28 15 144.9
*2017 Wyoming MWC JR QB 11 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8

Size isn't everything but we're talking about a guy who is 6'5 and 235 lbs (running a 4.76) vs 6'0 and 220 lbs. Wyoming is still a FBS school while Liberty is a FCS. 

For context, MWC record in 2021

  • Record vs Power 5: 6-12
  • vs Other FBS: 13-5
  • vs FCS: 9-2

Willis could be the best QB out of a bad bunch but we shouldn't be comparing him to Josh Allen and expect similar results.

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48 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Size isn't everything but we're talking about a guy who is 6'5 and 235 lbs (running a 4.76) vs 6'0 and 220 lbs. Wyoming is still a FBS school while Liberty is a FCS. 

For context, MWC record in 2021

  • Record vs Power 5: 6-12
  • vs Other FBS: 13-5
  • vs FCS: 9-2

Willis could be the best QB out of a bad bunch but we shouldn't be comparing him to Josh Allen and expect similar results.

I agree with but I think the issue with Malik Willis's accuracy might be getting over-blown.  For a different perspective, Matthew Stafford's college completion percentage was 57.1%.  He seems to have done OK.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matthew-stafford-1.html

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I don’t like any of the QB’s in this class. If the Lions were to draft a QB I would hope it’s Willis however Detroit is poorly positioned to draft him. There are much more impactful players at #2 and Willis won’t be there for the Rams pick. So moving up from there would be costly and I don’t think the Lions currently have a roster that allows moving picks to move up.

I don’t see a QB in this class with a ceiling higher than Goff. So I would far prefer to see them wait until next year. Someone will suggest the Lions, if improved won’t be able to get a quality QB. I think they will be well positioned next year and have sufficient draft capital to move up as required. I don’t think it will be necessary as I think next years group is more than just Young and Stroud.

Now if Holmes does do something unexpected I see no reason to question his judgement.

 

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