Which QB's are worth "insane" Cap Numbers for 2022 post-Rams SB win?

[Broncofan]

This is going to become a hot topic with extension talk for players like Kyler Murray / Lamar Jackson, and possible trades/extensions for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, etc.    Given DEN's interest in getting A-Rod & Wilson as plan A, this is already a topic of frequent discussion in the DEN forum.   Figured it becomes even more relevant to the Main Forum offseason discussion given the LAR W and how it changes the historical precedents, and with Kyler/Lamar & the trade QB's likely to get extended when they go to their new teams.

 

I think we all recognize that the Holy Grail is the elite top 10 ceiling rookie-contract QB.    You find the Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, or Patrick Mahomes - it's such a great advantage.   And why teams keep trying to hit.    But we're also now about to see QB's who aren't seen quite at the elite level, and the extension AAV numbers sound insane.   Mahomes' 40M hit (which is more built as year-to-year deals with ability to push cap hits further back) is going to be market-rate for non-Mahomes guys pretty soon.    CW has always said - don't do it.  And I'd argue if the guy isn't truly elite, then don't do it (the trap most teams fall into).

But the Rams just showed if you can get elite play, you can also make the cap hit work even at what sound like "crazy" numbers.    Yes, Stafford "only" cost 20M for 2021 - but the kicker is that Jared Goff had 24.7M in dead money - so the Rams used 44.7M at QB...and yet, still won the crown.  They also were able to buy talent at the trade deadline.    

Now, how was this possible?   2 major reasons:

1.  Future cap year totals are known to be increasing by a large amount - so this allows restructures to push the cap hits back.   Still, this could only be done for 2+ seasons in the 2010's, and then the numbers got really ugly.  GM John Dorsey was notorious for creating cap hell that teams often were on the hook for just as he left (ironically enough, Sashi Brown's great cap work prevented that from happening in CLE, but fair to say Dorsey got the least return for Brown's amazing cap maneuvering). 

2.  The big thing that allows teams to delay the cap hell problem is the introduction of voidable years.   Basically, even a player in his final year of his contract (who in the past, you couldn't restructure) - can now restructure their entire salary, and then spread the hit over 4 more voidable years - and save 80 percent of the current-year cap hit, and push it over the next 4 years.    This is how teams get under the cap when they're 50, 60, 70M over...and still have room to sign some guys.   

Now, eventually - the butcher's bill comes due.   But 1 & 2 are why NO was able to extend their cap hell due date for 4+ offseasons until next year (and still can manage it if they want - they may just eat it though if Payton is gone and QB situation puts them in rebuild year mode).    

TL:DR bottom line - the Rams just allocated 45M to QB this year..and still won the SB.   Now, it's not worth it if you aren't a contender.  And obv your GM has to be great at evaluating talent to fill the roster   And it's not worth it to spend even 30-35M if you don't get true elite QB play.   But if you do have that elite level QB.....teams likely aren't going to sweat those 30, 35M or even 40M cap numbers - if they have the elite guy and they see themselves as legit contenders. 

So with that in mind, players I'd see where teams aren't going to blink on getting that 35M-40M number - A-Rod, Wilson, Watson (duh).    Burrow/Herbert obv as well.  

The guys where it's going to be a Q - Kyler Murray, and yes, Lamar Jackson.    I think we know guys like Wentz / Mayfield blew their shot to be in any extension convo.   But if you wonder why teams will go that high - LAR kinda shows why it's very do-able (and we're seeing a lot of teams already doing it).

Edited February 14, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So, to move the offseason discussion forward, let's assume teams are going to be asked to pay 35-40M and still hope to contend?

With LAR's new cap allocation of 45M in 2021 and winning the SB, who's worth it & who isn't?

My answers:

Duh, Yes

-ARod, Wilson, Watson (duh)

-Extension guys with own team - Josh Allen, Justin Herbert (can't be extended yet, not in last year of rookie deal obv), Joe Burrow (same as Herbert) - again, pretty duh choices

Close, but No Cigar

-Kirk Cousins (being 34, worried he's maxxed out, and he's never been close to elite)

 

Maybe think 30M

-Kyler Murray (and obv Cousins)

30M?  I wouldn't go there

-Lamar (in BAL's case, I think they have a cheap alternative)

-JimmyG (wouldn't even go 20M TBH, really think Shanny & SF's cast propped him up)

 

 

I posted a poll at both the 35-40M level, and the 30M level, and listed ppl, figured it would be a nice QB discussion for offseason.   Have at it!

Edited February 14, 2022 by Broncofan

[HerbertGOAT]

Mahomes

Herbert

Rodgers

Josh Allen

Wilson

That's it. If Lamar returns to form and stays healthy next year, he's there too. Kyler and Dak would need to take a step up to reach there. I'm not saying they can't get to that point, but at the moment they look just a step below those big shot guys. Burrow needs to do more, he was effective this postseason but didn't make enough big plays. He likely gets into that top tier next season however.

Edited February 14, 2022 by HerbertGOAT

[Pandrew87]

11 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

-Extension guys with own team - Josh Allen, Justin Herbert (not yet obv), Joe Burrow (not yet obv) - again, pretty duh choices

For herbet and burrow what do you mean by not yet obvious? 

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, HerbertGOAT said:

Mahomes

Herbert

Rodgers

Josh Allen

Wilson

That's it. If Lamar returns to form and stays healthy next year, he's there too. Kyler and Dak would need to take a step up to reach there. I'm not saying they can't get to that point, but at the moment they look just a step below those big shot guys. Burrow needs to do more, he was effective this postseason but didn't make enough big plays. He likely gets into that top tier next season however.

To be fair, I didn't include Dak because DAL already made their bed and extended him for 4 years at 40M AAV.

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, Pandrew87 said:

For herbet and burrow what do you mean by not yet obvious? 

Not yet - as in teams can't extend Burrow/Herbert.  By league rules you can only extend 1st round draft picks as they enter their last year of their rookie deal (4th year for Rd2+, and Year 5 if teams take the 5th year option).   It's not happening this offseason for either guy.  Wasn't implying they weren't worth it.   Either way, to avoid confusion - revised lol.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Broncofan

[Pandrew87]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Not yet - as in teams can't extend Burrow/Herbert.  By league rules you can only extend 1st round draft picks as they enter their last year of their rookie deal (4th year for Rd2+, and Year 5 if teams take the 5th year option).   It's not happening this offseason for either guy.  Wasn't implying they weren't worth it.

Oh ok just was looking for clarification, completely agree with your assessment. Thank you!

Both will be worth big money I'm sure. Glad Mike Browns daughter is spending the money now

Edited February 14, 2022 by Pandrew87

[Jakuvious]

$40M+ - Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen

$35M+ - Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson (IF and only if literally everything is dropped and disappears)

$30M+ - Russel Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Kyler Murray (IF the claims of poor leadership and personality are not legit, and only Arizona would know this)

Top 3 guys I would feel make most any team an automatic superbowl contender. The next tier probably does, but a bigger sample size would make me more comfortable with it. Tier 3 are quality guys that I would see as a bit more environmentally dependent. I probably wouldn't throw money at them to turn my team around, but their current teams, or a team capable of competing would feel fine paying them. Basically anyone else, I would either consider them a stopgap, a developmental piece, or I would be looking to improve the position. But, I am very outspoken on thinking most teams need to be far pickier at the position and far more willing to move on and attempt to aggressively upgrade. I would not be comfortable with Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, etc., as my long term solution. Giving guys like Cousins and Carr 8 years worth of starts as they struggle to hit .500 is mindblowing to me.

[AlexGreen#20]

$40+ per for a guy who has never gotten an MVP vote (Russell Wilson) is . . . a lot.

[BayRaider]

As suspected, no one thinks Carr should be making 30M a year, and I agree. But the Raiders will extend him 30-33M per year anyways in the next few weeks. Commitment to Mediocracy continues. 

[FrantikRam]

One thing to consider is that we don't win this game without Von Miller, who we gave the Broncos an extra pick to pay most of his ealay and he was elite in the playoffs.

Should probably be thought of as offsetting part of that QB money

Edited February 14, 2022 by FrantikRam

[Broncofan]

51 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

As suspected, no one thinks Carr should be making 30M a year, and I agree. But the Raiders will extend him 30-33M per year anyways in the next few weeks. Commitment to Mediocracy continues. 

I added Carr to the 30M list, with only 1 year left, definitely a guy who will get discussed on his worth too.

[Forge]

3 hours ago, BayRaider said:

As suspected, no one thinks Carr should be making 30M a year, and I agree. But the Raiders will extend him 30-33M per year anyways in the next few weeks. Commitment to Mediocracy continues. 

If he signs between 30-33, I think you got a bit of a deal for the market

[ronjon1990]

Tier 1:

Rodgers...obviously

Allen and Burrow probably already earned it. 

Dak and Mahomes already got paid. 

That's it for me. 

Tier 2:

Wilson....close to big time, but age and some down seasons where he wasn't elevating the team to success.

Carr...LV can't afford to risk losing him, and someone out there would pay 30. 

Herbert when he can be extended, barring a SB next year. 

That's it for me. 

 

Cousins is too old and not elite. He's got some good but not great years left. 

Jimmy G isn't sniffing 30. 

Kyler has maturity issues and his obsession with the almighty dollar is going to be a problem. I see ugly talks looming, and I'd cut bait if I were Arizona. Let him flop for someone else. 

Lamar Jackson will never be worth it to me. He's just not a good enough QB. Baltimore will pay him because they're sort of stuck, but dude has 1 great season, 1 good season, 1 did. That said, I don't think any other legitimate team would pay Jackson 30+ to come in and play QB with his obvious limitations.

 

 

[jonnguy2015]

Worth $35-$40M:
Rodgers
Watson(personally I wouldn't want him anywhere near my team but assuming the allegations don't result in any serious penalties he as a player is definitely worth it)
Allen
Herbert 
Burrow

Will probably have to give them $35-$40 million although they're probably better in the $30 million range
Wilson(he's getting older and has declined a bit recently)
Murray
Jackson 

Will probably have to give them $30 million although they're probably better in the $20-$30 million range
Carr
Cousins

Not worth anything more than $10-$15 million
Garoppolo