The Improbable Rams Superbowl Run

[stl4life07]

I dont think we all truly know how improbable the Rams winning the Superbowl was this season. I can truly say the Rams won the Superbowl not even playing to their full capabilities. I might not be as accurate when explaining so if I miss out on some of these facts please feel free to correct me and if Im missing something then add to it but this is how improbable the Rams Superbowl run was:

1) Only one team has won the Superbowl after having a 3 game losing streak in the regular season. That was the Saints back in 2009. The Rams had a 3 game losing streak this season (Titans, Niners, Packers)

2) Stafford has never won a playoff game (0-3). He beat the Cards in the Wildcard round. Ultimately going (4-0) in the playoffs. 

3) Brady was (19-2) all-time in the divisional round. Double down, a Brady led team that forced 4 takeaways his team is (49-0) in his career. Rams played Brady and the Bucs and turned the ball over 4 times and won.

4) McVay lost 6 straight times to Kyle and the Niners. McVay was (4-16) trailing after halftime. McVay never won a game when trailing by 10pts entering the 4th quarter. I think he was like (0-14). Stafford was (0-26) when trailing by at least 10pts entering the 4th quarter. No team has ever won the NFCCG when trailing by at least 10pts entering the 4th quarter. Rams were down 7-10 at halftime and trailed by 10pts (7-17) and still beat the Niners.

5) Stafford was (0-3) in his career against the Bengals. Teams that didnt turn the ball over in the Superbowl was (19-2) and the Bengals had no turnovers. The Rams turned the ball over 2x thus the Bengals was +2 in the turnover battle. The last team to lose the Superbowl with a +2 turnover advantage, you have to go back to the 1979 Steelers. That was 43yrs ago. The Steelers lost to guess who? The Rams. The Rams beat the Bengals and won the Superbowl.

 

And a added bonus is Boyd dropped a big 3rd down right before the Rams longest drive of the Superbowl for the game-winning td. Boyd hasnt dropped a pass all season long. Doubling down, the Bengals had a 2nd and 1, 3rd and 1, and 4th and 1 on their potential game-tying or game-winning drive. They were stopped each time. Turn over on down and the Rams officially are the Superbowl champs. As a Rams fan this is better than the Kevin Dyson being inches in 1999 and the Rams beat the Titans to win the Superbowl.

Edited February 15, 2022 by stl4life07

[adamq]

They mortgaged the entire future to go all in for this year and next. It's really not that improbable.

[FrantikRam]

4 minutes ago, adamq said:

They mortgaged the entire future to go all in for this year and next. It's really not that improbable.

 

What exactly do you mean by this? For the sake of this discussion we will assume that McVay and Donald are sticking around.

The Rams will have 8 draft picks in the upcoming draft so I'm curious what people mean when they say this.

[stl4life07]

28 minutes ago, adamq said:

They mortgaged the entire future to go all in for this year and next. It's really not that improbable.

When I say improbable Im strictly talking about what history suggests what the Rams had to overcome. Obviously the team is talented and thus we know If there was one team to pull all of that off it would be this team.

I’m not going to be that guy to say “if the Rams had Goff they wouldn’t have pull it off” or as I heard ridiculous a ridiculous rake by Ron Parker saying “10-12 other QBs would’ve won the Superbowl with the Rams including Tannehill”. I think that’s ridiculous bc Tannehill had true homefield advantage, his running game gave him 140yds, his top two receivers gave him 200yds receiving total, his defense sacked Burrow 9x holding the Bengals to 19pts and they still lost. So Ron missed me on the Tannehill could’ve beaten the Bengals in the Superbowl take bc he was in a better position than Stafford was against the Bengals. Unlike Stafford, he was the reason the Titans didn’t beat the Bengals. 
 

Now I can’t say if other QBs could’ve won the Superbowl with this Rams team but all I know is Stafford did. If I had to guess though just based off of what I saw in these playoffs I think Allen and Brady could’ve won other than Stafford. Everyone else I’m not going to be convinced they would win. What Stafford did though was special considering all the pressure he had on him from the second the Rams made that trade till the ball in his hands down by 4pts knowing it was td or lose. And the thing about this Rams team is I had confidence he would score the td and I had confidence AD wouldn’t allow the Bengals to tie or score a td to win. There is no better feeling than that.

Edited February 15, 2022 by stl4life07

[adamq]

49 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

When I say improbable Im strictly talking about what history suggests what the Rams had to overcome. Obviously the team is talented and thus we know If there was one team to pull all of that off it would be this team.

I’m not going to be that guy to say “if the Rams had Goff they wouldn’t have pull it off” or as I heard ridiculous a ridiculous rake by Ron Parker saying “10-12 other QBs would’ve won the Superbowl with the Rams including Tannehill”. I think that’s ridiculous bc Tannehill had true homefield advantage, his running game gave him 140yds, his top two receivers gave him 200yds receiving total, his defense sacked Burrow 9x holding the Bengals to 19pts and they still lost. So Ron missed me on the Tannehill could’ve beaten the Bengals in the Superbowl take bc he was in a better position than Stafford was against the Bengals. Unlike Stafford, he was the reason the Titans didn’t beat the Bengals. 
 

Now I can’t say if other QBs could’ve won the Superbowl with this Rams team but all I know is Stafford did. If I had to guess though just based off of what I saw in these playoffs I think Allen and Brady could’ve won other than Stafford. Everyone else I’m not going to be convinced they would win. What Stafford did though was special considering all the pressure he had on him from the second the Rams made that trade till the ball in his hands down by 4pts knowing it was td or lose. And the thing about this Rams team is I had confidence he would score the td and I had confidence AD wouldn’t allow the Bengals to tie or score a td to win. There is no better feeling than that.

I mean I suppose every super bowl that's ever been won is by definition improbable, but LA were considered favorites in the NFC well before the playoffs even started, then they lucked out by getting to play Cincinnati.

 

Also there is some sour grapes here because I'm a 49ers fan 😅

[adamq]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

What exactly do you mean by this? For the sake of this discussion we will assume that McVay and Donald are sticking around.

The Rams will have 8 draft picks in the upcoming draft so I'm curious what people mean when they say this.

They don't have any picks in the first 4 rounds this year, and 2023 they dont have a 1st or 4th 

 

Sure the team is talented but with age and larger cap #s for the stars, the rest of your roster will take a big hit.. for example you already had to bring Weddle off the couch to fill a glaring hole

Edited February 15, 2022 by adamq

[stl4life07]

1 minute ago, adamq said:

I mean I suppose every super bowl that's ever been won is by definition improbable, but LA were considered favorites in the NFC well before the playoffs even started, then they lucked out by getting to play Cincinnati.

 

Also there is some sour grapes here because I'm a 49ers fan 😅

Hey I feel the same way that the Rams were fortunate to play the Bengals than the Chiefs or Bills. Taking nothing away from the Bengals but their weakness was easy going to be their downfall no matter how many times that game is played. This game was actually the best case scenario for the Bengals to be in the game with a shot at the end. Again if OBJ didn’t get hurt the Rams score at least 27pts and win by 10pts. Once OBJ got hurt the Rams offense stalled for just about all of the game except for that last possession. When OBJ was out there the Rams went 3 and out on the first possession then td and td from OBJ then Kupp.

 

But yeah you can say every team had improbable runs but the Rams overcame a lot of personal demons with McVay finally beating Kyle, Stafford finally getting a playoff win, him finally beating the Bengals, McVay and Stafford finally winning a game when trailing by at least 10pts in the 4th quarter. Winning a playoff game committing 4 turnovers and it was on the road too. Winning the Superbowl committing two turnovers and not even getting a single takeaway. It still feels surreal lol. 

[stl4life07]

6 minutes ago, adamq said:

They don't have any picks in the first 4 rounds this year, and 2023 they dont have a 1st or 4th 

 

Sure the team is talented but with age and larger cap #s for the stars, the rest of your roster will take a big hit.. for example you already had to bring Weddle off the couch to fill a glaring hole

They have a 3rd round pick this upcoming draft. The thing is too that the Rams truly don’t have any holes on their roster. My guess is they either keep the 3rd pick in hopes to find the next Kupp or Johnson III type player who fell in the draft but has tremendous upside to be a star at their position or they trade back and pick up extra picks. Snead loves to will and deal to make the most out of the draft. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by stl4life07

[Broncofan]

Every SB run is improbable, unless it's TB12 & BB.

Let's take Tampa's 2020 SB win:

1.   No team had ever won a SB playing 3 games on the road before the SB.

2.   Tampa had been absolutely destroyed by New Orleans twice, and had to face them at home.

3.   Tampa had the recurring theme of avoiding major injuries to key positions with no good replacements - it seldom happens each year to more than 1-2 teams.    Other than losing Vita Vea, Tampa didn't lose a single key guy - and they got Vea back in time for the playoffs (which was massive).  

4.   Tampa got absolutely hammered by KC's O, and the score was only close at the end because KC kinda called off the dogs in the 3Q/mid-4Q being up 20+ .   KC's injuries on the OL in the SB (combined with Vea's return) created the improbable 180 turn - for which so many KC fans (and FF fans in general) had KC as the heavy favorite (and yes, I was on the TAM side from the get go lol).

5.  No team had won a SB with a QB in the first year on the team, except for rookie Russell Wilson (and I think we can agree the Legion of Boom and Marshawn Lynch were big reasons this happened).    It's no coincidence that TAM struggled on 3rd downs the entire season until after their 2nd NO drubbing and the bye - when Gronk joined, and HC Arians allowed TB12 to incorporate more crossing routes / option RB routes he was used to having in NE.  

If we look at KC's win - they hadn't overcome the "beat NE bugaboo", never had won a SB before.   There are a few others, but you get the idea.    More importantly, when we look at the next year post-win for both KC - neither avoided injury to key spots, and it absolutely was a big part in their downfall the following year.     #4 is a big reason why SB teams win that's improbable each year but for 1-2 teams, but for the winning team, it's a recurring theme.

As for LAR, there are some important reasons to cover the improbabilities, a couple of which are very similar to TAM in 2020.

1.   Like TAM in 2020, LAR never suffered an irreplaceable injury.   They lost Woods & Akers - but RB is the most replaceable position, and by sheer luck, the day before, they signed OBJ.    It took 2-3 weeks, but once they got OBJ back into the O, they were back on track.

2.   The Rams 3-game losing streak coincided with playing the #1 seeds from both conferences, and their nemesis, the 49ers.    And most importantly, without Woods, and with OBJ new to the system.     If anything, it highlights how important OBJ was to keeping that O humming (and no coincidence to the 2H struggles without him in the SB).  This coincides with TAM's getting destroyed by NO (and then KC), where the lack of Vea, combined with TB getting 4 TO’s, flips that script. 

3.  Re: divisional game, TAM's OL was absolutely crushed.   And their secondary was a terrible matchup for LAR's O.   It's why smart bettors backed LAR hard that week (and yes, I was one of them...even though I took TAM to win the 2020 SB, I faded them hard because of the OL decimation and the matchups with other NFC teams this year).

4.  Some teams just match up well vs. each other - and that's SF vs. LAR.   But Stafford & co. absolutely shredded SF in Week 18 - then McVay, as he's done many 2H's - let off the gas.    Frankly, the only reason LAR lost week 18 was because of that - and even worse, McVay ran the ball 3 straight times at the 2 min warning, when a 1st down would have won the game - and then SF & Deebo's heroics tied it up, and went to OT.   The narrative going forward is LAR/Stafford vs. SF - and it's 1-2, and it should be 2-1.  Not really that surprising with a deeper dive. 

5.  2nd Most importantly - Stafford 0-3 record was absolutely BUNK narrative.  The DET teams were clearly inferior, non-legit SB contenders except 1 season.  And that year, the famous non-DPI killed what would have been a heroic comeback drive.     Stafford didn't reinvent himself in LAR - since 2015, he's been a great QB on a terrible team (and the best teams were just mediocre).   0-3 is a small sample size.  THAT's the lesson there.

6.  Finally, LAR doesn't win without the acquisition of Stafford, Von Miller & OBJ.    And having a healthy WR corps, Aaron Donald & secondary for sure.    But that's the roster that won.   It's not exactly a "OMG I can't believe that team won it" roster.

 

 

Frankly, the only reason ppl doubted LAR was because of the bunk narrative that Stafford wasn't that much of an upgrade on Goff.   Much like how ppl thought Tampa couldn't win 3x on the road, and wouldn't get by NO, and wouldn't get by GB.     Now, Super Bowl wins by their nature must come with improbable events.   That's exactly why so few teams win more than 1x in their peak phase of contention, and many legit contenders don't win.   But when you look at why it happened, the reasons aren't that improbable at all...that year.   The big thing is that some of the reasons are almost certainly not happening again to that team at all...but to the next SB champion (avoding key crippling injuries being the huge X factor).

Edited February 15, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

The one thing a look at the "improbabilities" for each SB winner does - it makes you appreciate NE's run of excellence.   And I say that as a Broncos fan who roots against NE pretty much every matchup that doesn't affect me (they've had enough rings for a lifetime lol).

Edited February 15, 2022 by Broncofan

[notthatbluestuff]

2 hours ago, adamq said:

They mortgaged the entire future to go all in for this year and next. It's really not that improbable.

Absolutely. I mean, they traded quality picks to rent Von Miller for two months. It's hard to think of more of an "all-in" move. The idea that their run was any more "improbable" than any other Super Bowl run is pretty absurd. They were among the NFC favorites at the start of the year and even more so when they acquired Miller and OBJ. If anything, it's more surprising that they were as low as a #4 seed. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by notthatbluestuff

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

They don't have any picks in the first 4 rounds this year, and 2023 they dont have a 1st or 4th 

 

Sure the team is talented but with age and larger cap #s for the stars, the rest of your roster will take a big hit.. for example you already had to bring Weddle off the couch to fill a glaring hole

We went all in, but we're not going anywhere next year. We haven't used a first round pick since 2016, so that's nothing new. And we do have the last pick of the 3rd round this year. And we brought in Weddle because we lost both our starting safeties in Week 18.

[Soggust]

9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If we look at KC's win - they hadn't overcome the "beat NE bugaboo", never had won a SB before.   There are a few others, but you get the idea.    More importantly, when we look at the next year post-win for both KC - neither avoided injury to key spots, and it absolutely was a big part in their downfall the following year.     #4 is a big reason why SB teams win that's improbable each year but for 1-2 teams, but for the winning team, it's a recurring theme.

 

 

But otherwise, I agree with your take =p

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Absolutely. I mean, they traded quality picks to rent Von Miller for two months. It's hard to think of more of an "all-in" move. The idea that their run was any more "improbable" than any other Super Bowl run is pretty absurd. They were among the NFC favorites at the start of the year and even more so when they acquired Miller and OBJ. If anything, it's more surprising that they were as low as a #4 seed. 

The other take-home message - seeding other than having the bye, is overrated.

Having 1 home game helps a LOT.   But it's not insurmountable.   TAM did it in 2020 as the 5 seed (although no crowds helped, it's the travel IMO that's even more important - it's actually been researched).    

There's no doubt having the 1 seed is an advantage, guaranteed home games and 1 less game to play.  But it's no guarantee. 

Let's also recognize it came down to 1 game between the 4 seed and 1 seed in the regular season.   LAR beats GB, they're the 1 seed.   Big difference in that kind of separation, and say GB/LAR/TAM & PHI this year (worlds apart IMO).

[FrantikRam]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

They don't have any picks in the first 4 rounds this year, and 2023 they dont have a 1st or 4th 

 

Sure the team is talented but with age and larger cap #s for the stars, the rest of your roster will take a big hit.. for example you already had to bring Weddle off the couch to fill a glaring hole

 

We had to bring Weddle in because both our starting safeties got hurt. Every team would have to bring someone in in that scenario.

Comp picks my man. We will have the following in this years draft between comps and our own:

3rd

4th

5th

6th (3)

7th (2)

 

Not ideal, but not nearly the issue people think it is. The last time we these types of draft picks, we came out with this class:

• 3.89 - Joseph Noteboom, OL, TCU.
• 4.111 - Brian Allen, C, Michigan State.
• 4.135 - John Franklin-Myers, DE, SF Austin.
• 5.147 - Micah Kiser, LB, Virginia.
• 5.160 - Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE/OLB, Oklahoma.
• 6.192 - Jamil Demby, OL, Maine.
• 6.195 - Sebastian Joseph-Day, DL, Rutgers.
• 6.205 - Trevon Young, DE, Louisville

 

From 2018. Let's do a "where are they now":

Noteboom - started and dominated at LT against the Bucs in the NFC divisional round. Starting caliber LT who has filled in at multiple spots.

Brian Allen - starting C

JFM - sack/fumble of Brady in the Super Bowl that year, then Rams cut him and now a contributor for the Jets (I believe he even got a contract extension)

Micah Kiser - started and played well for the number one defense last year, but ultimately too injury prone. Got plucked off our practice squad by the Broncos

Obo - pass rush rotation

SJD - injured this year, but good starter for us the past two years

This draft got hammered by fans and the media, but ultimately produced two starters and two key contributors on a Super Bowl winning team.

We will lose quite a few FAs this year - SJD, possibly Noteboom or Allen, Darious Williams, Von Miller, Austin Corbett - who will fetch us 3-4 comp picks for the following season. It's the model. We will likely end up with a few 4/5/6 comp picks, so really next year we'd just be missing our first round pick. After next year? We have all our picks currently.