CW21's Green Bay Packers Mock Offseason v2022.01

[CWood21]

Probably only going to do two mock offseasons, one where Rodgers is traded and one where he returns.  I'll probably be more interested in talking picks and situations rather then constructing a full offseason.  But here's the first one...

Scenario:
Aaron Rodgers announces on the Pat McAfee show that he is returning to Green Bay.

This one seems the most likely scenario in which Rodgers wants to return.  I do think that IF Rodgers returns, I think he's going to get a new long-term contract something in the neighborhood of a 3 year deal with a pair of void years to help spread out the cap hits.  Right now, the Packers are $50.7M over the cap.

 

Free Agency

Release:
EDGE ZaDarius Smith - $15,281,250 ($35,389,720)
K Mason Crosby - $2,395,000 ($32,994,720)
WR Randall Cobb - $6,748,038 ($26,246,682)

There's going to be a LOT of tough cuts here, but the Packers save nearly $25M alone by cutting those three.  Obviously, Za'Darius Smith was the emotional leader of the Packers' defense the last few years, but a $27.7M cap hit for a pass rusher coming off an 18 snap season isn't going to happen.  And there's probably only going to be one of the Smith Bros. coming back to Green Bay when it's all said and done.  I think there's a possibility that the Packers will renegotiate a new deal with Mason Crsoby that pays him significantly worse, but given his age it's probably better to move on sooner rathe then later.  And Randall Cobb was instrumental in bringing Rodgers back to camp, but at $8M+ cap hit next year he's simply not coming back at that price tag.  A potential Rodgers' extension could open the door for a Cobb return, but at significantly less.

 

Restructure:
OT David Bakhtiari - $2,800,000 Base Salary & $10,800,000 Roster Bonus ($18,224,721)
DT Kenny Clark - $7,215,000 Base Salary & $7,650,000 Roster Bonus ($8,347,074)

Nothing really crazy here.  Kenny Clark is an obvious restructure here, and he's going to get that max restructure.  The integrity of David Bakhtiari's knee is probably going to be key in the decision to restructure his contract, but in an offseason in which every penny counts the Packers are going to need to restructure his base salary as well.

 

Tenders & Tags:
WR Davante Adams - $19,127,000 ($27,474,074)
WR Allen Lazard - $2,433,000 (ROFR) ($29,907,074)
ILB Krys Barnes - $895,000 (ERFA) ($30,802,704)
OT Yosh Njiman - $895,000 (ERFA) ($31,697,074)
TE Dominique Dafney - $825,000 (ERFA) ($32,522,074)

Timing here isn't right, but that's because of dramatic effect.  Davante Adams is going to get franchise tagged.  The Packers will make sure it will happen.  They're not letting him walk as a FA, and I think he and Aaron Rodgers are tied together for good and for bad.  I don't think Allen Lazard gets a 2nd round tender, and if someone is dumb enough to offer him a bloated contract I'd let them sign him and save the nearly $2.5M.  I don't think anyone even seriously considers tendering him an offer if the Packers attach a SRP tender to him.  Krys Barnes and Yosh Njiman are all at least fringe starting-caliber players, so they're an easy re-sign.  And I think the FO likes Dafney enough to bring him back as well.  The rest of the ERFA probably don't get tendered.

 

Extensions:
EDGE Preston Smith (3 years, $37.75M, $10M signing bonus, $13.35M GTD) ($25,401,486)
2022: $3,000,000 | $9,250,000 | $350,000 | $12,650,000M
2023:  $10,350,000 | $2,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $15,350,000
2024: $9,500,000 | $2,000,000 | $1,150,000 | $12,650,000
2025: $0 | $2,000,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026:  $0 | $2,000,000 | $0 (VOID)

CB Jaire Alexander (5 years, $90M, $20M signing bonus, $40M GTD) ($15,582,486)
2022: $2,500,000 (GTD) | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $7,000,000
2023: $13,500,000 (GTD) | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $18,000,000
2024: $15,000,000 (Partial GTD) | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $19,500,000
2025: $17,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $21,500,000
2026: $19,500,000 | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $24,000,000

S Adrian Amos (3 years, $27.5M, $10M signing bonus, $14.5M GTD) ($12,182,486)
2022: $1,500,000 (GTD) | $6,582,000 | $500,000 | $8,582,000
2023: $6,000,000 (GTD) | $3,582,000 | $1,000,000 | $10,582,000
2024: $7,500,000 | $3,582,000 | $1,000,000 | $12,082,000
2025: $0 | $4,664,000 | $0 (VOID)

WR Davante Adams (3 years, $75M, $35M signing bonus, $45.5M GTD) ($3,555,486)
2022: $3,000,000 (GTD) | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $10,500,000
2023: $16,000,000 (Partial GTD) | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $23,500,000
2024: $19,500,000 | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $27,000,000
Y4 (void): $0 | $7,000,000 | $0 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000
Y5 (void): $0 | $7,000,000 | $0 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000

QB Aaron Rodgers (3 years, $135M, $65M signing bonus, $65M GTD) ($8,935,102)
2022:  $2,000,000 | $32,173,568 | $0 | $34,173,568
2023:  $28,500,000 | $20,673,570 | $0 | $49,173,570
2024:  $39,500,000 | $13,000,000 | $0 | $52,500,000
2025: $0 | $13,000,000 | $0 (VOID) 
2026: $0 | $13,000,000 | $0 (VOID)

I'm going to piggy back off of Basarki's contract projections.  I think he's in the ballpark of the right deals.   I know that he used Olivier Vernon as his contract comparison for Preston Smith, but I think Romeo Okwara is a better comparison even if he's a bit younger when he signed the deal.  Okwara was a bit up and down like Smith has been with 19 sacks over the previous 3 seasons before the new deal.  Preston Smith has 25 sacks over the previous 3 seasons for comparison  If you want to add a bit more to inflate his AAV, you could tack on a couple of extra million to his 2024 salary.  Likewise, the market for Jaire Alexander seems pretty set.  I don't think he's getting Jalen Ramsey money, but he's in that Mashon Lattimore, Marlon Humphrey, Tre'Davious White, etc. level and getting around $18M.  Again, you can bump up later years if you want to boost that AAV.  I did like the Jordan Poyer/Micah Hyde comparisons for Adrian Amos.  Don't save a ton of money, but they get their stalwart back there at safety.

Davante Adams new deal is something I've thrown out there a while ago, and I think it's a reasonable middle ground for all parties.  I don't think he's getting that $27.5M that DeAndre Hopkins got as part of his extension, and he's definitely not sniffing $30M/year unless he hits FA.  But as I mentioned, the Packers probably are going to tie Rodgers and Adams together, and this deal does exactly that.  Davante Adams becomes a FA in 3 years when he's 32 years old for one last big payday, and for Green Bay they won't recoup anything more than a 5th round pick because of the Alan Faneca rule.  Which is where the Rodgers' extension comes into play.  I think Rodgers has a very clear timeline as far as when he wants to play until.  This takes Rodgers into his age 41 season, and he and Adams can leave Green Bay together (Adams as a FA, Rodgers retires).  Unfortunately, these maneuvers drastically hurt the Packers' future cap so the Packers can effectively use his 2023 and 2024 salary as a loan and restructure to create extra cap space.  If they pretty much max restructure Rodgers' base salary in 2023 to create cap space, the Packers can an additional ~$22M in cap space if they choose to do so.  They can repeat that in 2024 as well for an additional ~$30M in cap space, but by doing those restructures it'll create a reckoning in 2025 which is when all the contracts are set to expire anyways.  They may compete for the Lions and Browns for worst season in NFL history that year.

 

Re-Sign:
TE Robert Tonyan (1 year, $3.5M, $0M signing bonus, $2M GTD) ($6,844,502)
2022: $3,000,000 | $469,800 | $500,000 | $3,969,800
2023: $0 | $469,800 | $0 (VOID)
2024: $0 | $469,800 | $0 (VOID)
2025: $0 | $469,800 | $0 (VOID)

ILB DeVondre Campbell (3 years, $22M, $8M signing bonus, $12M GTD) ($4,350,502)
2022: $1,000,000 | $1,802,000 | $500,000 | $3,802,000
2023:  $5,900,000 | $1,802,000 | $500,000 | $7,302,000
2024:  $6,500,000 | $1,802,000 | $500,000 | $8,802,00
2025: $0 | $1,802,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026: $0 | $1,802,000 | $0 (VOID)

P Corey Bojorquez (2 year, $3.5M, $1M signing bonus) ($3,150,502)
2022: $1,000,000 | $200,000 | $0 | $1,200,000
2023: $1,400,000 | $200,000 | $100,000 | $1,7000,000
2024: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)
2025: $0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026:$0 | $200,000 | $0 (VOID)

I think there's mutual incentive for Robert Tonyan to return to Green Bay on a 1 year, prove-it deal.  Coming off a torn ALC in a "down" year after posting really good numbers the previous years, it'd behoove Tonyan to return and try and have a strong year to parlay that into a long-term contract in 2023 when his market should be significantly stronger.  After not finding a long-term deal last offseason, DeVondre Campbell signed a 1 year deal with Green Bay and parlayed that into an All-Pro season under Joe Barry.  I think there's mutual incentive for the Packers to re-sign Campbell, but I think the money needs to be right.  I think something around $8M/year is about the right amount for his market, and I think he could probably get a bit bigger deal out of another team, but compares similarly to the one that Jordan Hicks signed.  Noticeably, Rasul Douglas isn't re-signed and that was one that I think Basarki massively undervalued.  I get the quote from Douglas said he wasn't looking for a huge payday, but I'm a big believer that when it comes down to it money talks more then anything else.  I think a 4 year, $36M deal is what he's going to get rather then the 3 year, $12M deal that he used.  I would LOVE to be wrong on this one, but I just don't think the Packers will find a deal to meet his demands but also fit the Packers' salary cap structure.  Similarly, I'd love to have MVS back but I just don't see the Packers offer getting anywhere close to getting a deal done.

 

Cap Space Implications:
2023: $3,150,502
2024: $3,876,100
2025: $33,518,362

This series of moves puts the Packers under the cap with their core in place and enough cap space to sign their own draft picks.  The Packers will almost certainly need more cap space for in-season moves, so possible restructures include Billy Turner ($3.51M saved), Dean Lowry ($3.39M saved), and Aaron Jones ($2.88M saved).  I believe the savings could be even greater IF they tacked on extra void years to those deals.  I think in the order of likelihood is the way I listed them.  As I mentioned earlier, the Packers can use Aaron Rodgers' base salary effectively as a loan by converting his base salary into a signing bonus when they need cap space.

 

2022 NFL Draft

Round One (28th Overall)
Travon Walker [DL/EDGE; Georgia]

Right now, I've got Travon Walker as a mid-to-late Day 1 pick but with a strong Combine I think he's going to solidly be a mid FRP.  If you were to ask me today, I think he's EDGE 5/6.  I think he can slide into that Za'Darius Smith role where he's an EDGE on an early downs, but roles into that 5T on obvious passing situations.  His pass rush numbers don't pop out with just 7.5 TFL and 6 sacks, but his versatility is glaringly obvious.  Similarly to Rashan Gary, I don't think Georgia did a poor job featuring him as a pass rusher even as Georgia fielded an elite defense.   He's not quite that elite athlete that Rashan Gary was coming out of Michigan, but he's a damn good athlete and he has a bright future especially if you give him the right coaching staff.  The Packers seem to prefer their EDGE on the bigger side and Walker fits that mold.

 

Round Two (59th Overall)
Kyler Gordon [CB; Washington]

Joe Barry talked about the STAR position in his defense and this year we never really got a chance to see that with Jaire Alexander missing majority of the seasons.  Enter Kyler Gordon who can fit that STAR role and really thrive.  Kyler has the ability to play both on the boundary and in the corner, but his willingness to come up in run support sets him apart from majority of the corners in this year's class.  Kyler is a guy I think is going to fly up the draft boards once the whole process is completed.  But for now, I think he's a mid-to-late second round guy who is flying under the radar of his teammate, Trent McDuffie.  After letting Rasul Douglas walk as a FA and giving Jaire Alexander a mega-contract, the Packers hopefully invest one final top pick into a CB and have their secondary set pending what they opt to do with Darell Savage.  I think the Packers ideally would like to add another DL here, but the board is going to be wiped at this point.

 

Round Three (92nd Overall)
Alec Pierce [WR; Cincinnati]

The Packers are going to have to replenish their WR room this offseason regardless of what happens with Davante Adams.  MVS is an UFA and Allen Lazard is a RFA, and I think both are likely potential casualties depending on how the Davante Adams situation turns out.  Enter Alec Pierce who will fit into the WR room quite well and will develop more chemistry with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love even if he won't get immediate snaps.  I'd imagine by the end of the season that he'll eventually get a starting WR role, but it wouldn't surprise me if he took the MVS role as a deep threat.  Pierce was a big play threat in college averaging 17.5 YPC, and could help open up the offense for others.

 

Round Four (130th Overall)
John Ridgeway [DT; Arkansas]

I really would have liked to have gone DL earlier (and probably often), but this DL class isn't anything special and I think we're going to see some big guys go off the board a bit earlier than anticipated.  I think what the Packers think of TJ Slaton is going to go a LONG way into determining how high they go DL.  IF they view Slaton as a potential starter on the DL, they'll probably take a DL somewhere late Day 2, early Day 3.  If they view him as a rotational piece at best, then they may take on on Day 1.  John Ridgeway is a nose tackle prospect that allows the Packers the flexibility to move Kenny Clark around the DL, and put him in a position to make plays.

 

Round Four (139th Overall)
Charlie Kolar [TE; Iowa State]

I personally believe Charlie Kolar lost himself some money by returning to Iowa State for another season, and if he would have came out after last year probably would have been a top 96 pick pretty easily.  Unfortunately, he returned for another year and came out in a very strong TE class.  Still, I'd be happy to have him as a reliable pass catcher and I think he'd quickly develop into a favorite of Aaron Rodgers with his ability to find the soft spot in zones.

 

Round Five (170th Overall)
Gabe Brkic [K; Oklahoma]

After releasing Mason Crosby, the Packers are going to need a kicker so I'd imagine they'll draft one and compete with JJ Molson for the starting kicker position.  Honestly, I'll probably spend some time actually looking at kickers this offseason.

 

I'm not going to spend too much time on our three projected 7th round picks, but choose some developmental types you like.  Probably another RB, IOL, and DB.  And with that, I've hit 70k posts with FF.

[MacReady]

If Aaron Rodgers comes back and the Packers do not go all out to bring in a free agent WR or tight end and they sit tight with their original three draft picks instead of using everything they can to move up in the draft as far as they can...

It will be the single dumbest decision in Green Bay Packer history.

If every single player on our end-of-year roster came back and played and was healthy all year and the Packers only added draft picks, they would not win a Super Bowl.

[Leader]

Well done 👍

[coachbuns]

That was a lot of time and effort you put into your mock ... I enjoyed reading it.  Don't know much about any of the players you drafted but the thought process in the positions and how to get under the salary cap was enlightening.    

[squire12]

7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Extensions:
EDGE Preston Smith (3 years, $37.75M, $10M signing bonus, $13.35M GTD) ($25,401,486)
2022: $3,000,000 | $9,250,000 | $350,000 | $12,650,000M
2023:  $10,350,000 | $2,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $15,350,000
2024: $9,500,000 | $2,000,000 | $1,150,000 | $12,650,000
2025: $0 | $2,000,000 | $0 (VOID)
2026:  $0 | $2,000,000 | $0 (VOID)

CB Jaire Alexander (5 years, $90M, $20M signing bonus, $40M GTD) ($15,582,486)
2022: $2,500,000 (GTD) | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $7,000,000
2023: $13,500,000 (GTD) | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $18,000,000
2024: $15,000,000 (Partial GTD) | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $19,500,000
2025: $17,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $21,500,000
2026: $19,500,000 | $4,000,000 | $500,000 | $24,000,000

S Adrian Amos (3 years, $27.5M, $10M signing bonus, $14.5M GTD) ($12,182,486)
2022: $1,500,000 (GTD) | $6,582,000 | $500,000 | $8,582,000
2023: $6,000,000 (GTD) | $3,582,000 | $1,000,000 | $10,582,000
2024: $7,500,000 | $3,582,000 | $1,000,000 | $12,082,000
2025: $0 | $4,664,000 | $0 (VOID)

WR Davante Adams (3 years, $75M, $35M signing bonus, $45.5M GTD) ($3,555,486)
2022: $3,000,000 (GTD) | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $10,500,000
2023: $16,000,000 (Partial GTD) | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $23,500,000
2024: $19,500,000 | $7,000,000 | $500,000 | $27,000,000
Y4 (void): $0 | $7,000,000 | $0 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000
Y5 (void): $0 | $7,000,000 | $0 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000

QB Aaron Rodgers (3 years, $135M, $65M signing bonus, $65M GTD) ($8,935,102)
2022:  $2,000,000 | $32,173,568 | $0 | $34,173,568
2023:  $28,500,000 | $20,673,570 | $0 | $49,173,570
2024:  $39,500,000 | $13,000,000 | $0 | $52,500,000
2025: $0 | $13,000,000 | $0 (VOID) 
2026: $0 | $13,000,000 | $0 (VOID)

I'm going to piggy back off of Basarki's contract projections.  I think he's in the ballpark of the right deals.   I know that he used Olivier Vernon as his contract comparison for Preston Smith, but I think Romeo Okwara is a better comparison even if he's a bit younger when he signed the deal.  Okwara was a bit up and down like Smith has been with 19 sacks over the previous 3 seasons before the new deal.  Preston Smith has 25 sacks over the previous 3 seasons for comparison  If you want to add a bit more to inflate his AAV, you could tack on a couple of extra million to his 2024 salary.  Likewise, the market for Jaire Alexander seems pretty set.  I don't think he's getting Jalen Ramsey money, but he's in that Mashon Lattimore, Marlon Humphrey, Tre'Davious White, etc. level and getting around $18M.  Again, you can bump up later years if you want to boost that AAV.  I did like the Jordan Poyer/Micah Hyde comparisons for Adrian Amos.  Don't save a ton of money, but they get their stalwart back there at safety.

How much in new $$ is Amos and Preston Smith getting in these contracts?

I might be mis-interpreting how you are showing it, but the new money seems light for them.  

[squire12]

I think the WR room would look like

Adams

Pierce

Amari Rodgers

MVS hits UFA and with a no compensation tender on Lazard, he gets signed by another team pretty easily to a contract that GB can't match due to cap issues

[jleisher]

Very well done!  The only thing I could nit pic on is not resigning MVS and Lazard.   What about keeping those two and let Tonyan walk?

Edited February 17, 2022 by jleisher
add

[15412]

A lot of work, good work.  That being said I pray this does not happen for the long term health of this team...

I greatly look forward to your option 2...

[Sandy]

Really solid mock. I appreciate the effort you go through with exact figures. Anyone who opens their response with a complaint is just rude.

I think this is a pretty realistic outcome too. I'll echo the above comment on how the WR/TE room could use a facelift after losing several contributors, but given our cap situation some area of the roster will need to be left unfilled. Here's to hoping Tonyan recovers well and either Amari Rodgers or Pierce emerges as a solid contributor in the passing game in this situation.

[thrILL!]

Letting Rasul Douglas walk will be a colossal mistake by the FO. 

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, squire12 said:

How much in new $$ is Amos and Preston Smith getting in these contracts?

I might be mis-interpreting how you are showing it, but the new money seems light for them.  

Assuming my math is correct, Preston Smith is going from 1 year, $19.7M deal to a new 3 year, $37.75M deal.  In terms of actual cap flow, he's set to get $12.47M this year on his previous deal, but his new deal gets $13.35M this year.  It effectively turns his base salary and roster bonus into a lower base salary, but a sizeable signing bonus.  That's $13M in base salary and other bonuses in 2023, and only $10.65M in 2024.  You could always bump up the back end of the contract a few more million, but I think it's in the market.

Structured pretty similarly to Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.  He's got 1 year, $7.9M left on his contract and he's receiving a 3 year, $27.5M deal with a $10M signing bonus.  His actual cap flow would be $12M in 2022, so he'd actually be getting a pretty sizeable pay bump.  This deal effectively adds an extra 2 years at that second tier safety market value.

[15412]

Your mock is conceivable in every way cwood and the amount of work detailed to the nth degree.  I think you could see I just hope we move on, and anticipate your next mock will be far more to my liking.  It is really funny and telling at the same time that some might just need a good cry..

[Packerraymond]

Damnit I finished my mock and was going to post it today, didn't you hear me yelling from the basement ? 

I think they can find a bit more money than you have IMO. A Rodgers returns scenario I believe also brings back MVS/Douglas on 2 year deals with void years.

As far as the draft, without a Rodgers trade it's really quite boring. Not anything you did, just the reality of picking in the final 4...again. Positions are good, haven't looked to much into Walker or Gordon, but they'll be soon on my list. 

[pgwingman]

Great work CW, and congrats on the 70k

I share the same gripes as most folks, I'm not happy about the void years coming up or letting guys like Lazard (possibly) or Rasul walk, but this is a dang fine attempt at keeping the band together and hoping for some luck in 2023.

Also, kudos on the work with the contract valuations. I'm not sure I agree 100% on them, but they are dang reasonable.

Finally, kudos on the formatting. Completely clean and easy to read 

[beekay414]

Kolar is fine but I think we're going to have a ton of interest in Greg Dulcich. He's an ideal replacement for Marcedes.