Pre-combine Mock offseason

[StartBarr]

StartBarr Presents…

Mock Offseason v1.0

 

Initial cap: -$28.2 million

Spotrac has us at $28.2 million over the cap after the recent restructures of Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari, and Kenny Clark.

 

Using estimates in the ballpark of this article from USA Today’s Packers Wire and a million other places: https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lists/packers-salary-cap-contracts-2022-offseason-aaron-rodgers-all-in-savings-restructure-cut-extension/

 

Cuts:

ZaDarius Smith (saves $15.3m)

Randall Cobb (saves $6.7m)

Marcedes Lewis (saves $2.4m)

Mason Crosby (saves $2.4m)

 

Total Savings: $26.8 million

New cap: -$1.4 million

 

Restructures & Extensions:

Extend Aaron Rodgers (saves $16m)

Extend Jaire Alexander (saves $6m)

Extend Adrian Amos (saves $5m)

Extend Preston Smith (saves $8m)

Restructure Dean Lowry (saves $3m)

Restructure Billy Turner (saves $3.5m)

 

Total Savings: $41.5 million

New cap: $40.1 million

 

Free Agents:

Davante Adams: 4 years / $100 million ($16m 2022 cap hit)

DeVondre Campbell: 3 years / $19 million ($4m 2022 cap hit)

Rasul Douglas: 3 years / $16 million ($3m 2022 cap hit)

Allen Lazard: 3 years / $12 million ($2m 2022 cap hit)

Corey Bojorquez: 1 year / $1 million ($1m 2022 cap hit)

Yosh Nijman: $950k RFA deal

Krys Barnes: $895k ERFA tender

Dominique Dafney: $895k ERFA tender

 

Total 2022 cap impact: $28.74 million

New cap: $11.36 million

 

Outside Free Agents:

Harrison Phillips, DT: 3 years / $19 million ($4 million 2022 cap hit): Stealing this from a few other posters who brought him up as a potential FA add for our defense. I like it a lot, as he provides the depth and early-down run stuffing ability we need for our D-line. This move brings the improvement we’ve needed against the run for so many years, improving our already top-tier defense into a Top 5 league-wide unit.

 

New cap entering draft: $7.36 million

 

2022 NFL Draft:

 

1.28. Treylon Burks / WR / Arkansas 

(6’3”, 225 lbs)

Green Bay makes an unorthodox move (for them) and grabs a WR in Round 1 to provide further support for Rodgers entering another “all-in” season. Despite the tendency to value other positions in Round 1 historically, the value is just too great as Burks slips to them at #28 after an average combine performance. I know some will object on the basis of Burks being projected Top 15-20 by most, but we’ve seen far crazier slides on draft day. Burks is a great fit for this offense and should become a great perimeter blocker in this scheme with his size of 6’3” 230 lbs. Although he primarily lined up in the slot at Arkansas, the Packers see him as a weapon to be used all over the offense and will swap him with Davante between outside & the slot to keep defenses off balance.

 

2.59. Arnold Ebiketie / EDGE / Penn State 

(6’3” / 250 lbs)

Ebiketie is a perfect match for Green Bay’s current needs at EDGE. A guy loaded with potential who is best contributing as a pass rushing specialist behind established veterans. This will allow Ebiketie to contribute doing what he does best as a promising young player - get after the QB. Time behind Gary & Preston Smith allows him to improve his strength and work on his ability to defend the run so he can develop into Gary’s long-term sidekick.

 

3.92. Alec Pierce / WR / Cincinnati

(6’3” / 208 lbs)

Pierce is a great outside weapon to add to our offense. He had a knack for making big plays at Cinci and his addition gives us several talented wideouts that can be moved all across the formation in various roles. Also gives us a lot of options in the red zone between Adams, Burks, Lazard, and Pierce if we want to go 4 wide. Rodgers is out of complaints with this wideout group heading into 2022.

 

4.130. Mario Goodrich / CB / Clemson

(6’0” / 188 lbs)

Goodrich was All-ACC 1st team this past season alongside Andrew Booth Jr. and would be a great add for the Packers in Round 4. Goodrich thrives in zone coverage with great vision and the ability to break on the ball. He is also a strong tackler in run support, a skill that as a Packers fan I find to particularly important after years of watching corners embarrass us with their tackling attempts. Not great in man but hopefully he can be coached up into a rotational CB at first & more in the future. 

 

4.139. Cole Turner / TE / Nevada

(6’6” / 246 lbs)

At 6’6”, Turner immediately adds a completely different look to our current TE group. The Nevada TE brings a lot more than just size to our offense. As per PFN, “Turner has the athleticism to line up all across the field, whether in the slot, out wide, or in-line. He also has some vertical-leaping ability. He elevates and adjusts his leverage in midair.” With Davante & Lazard returning and Burks, Pierce, & Turner scooped up on draft day, the Packers offense is now loaded with big, athletic, versatile talent for MLF to get creative with his play-calling. Our RZ efficiency also projects to bump back to top of the league level after some regression in 2022. The rookie class is a big part of that.

 

5.170. Cordell Volson / OL / NDSU

(6’6” / 319 lbs)

Swing tackle offering versatility to add depth to our line and develop for the future. May end up replacing fellow NDSU alumni Billy Turner long-term but for now he can learn from him.

 

6.219. Smoke Monday / S / Auburn

(6’3” / 200 lbs)

Core special teamer who can make an impact in that phase of the game now and hopefully can one day contribute as a rotational safety.

 

7.227. Micah McFadden / ILB / Indiana

(6’2” / 232 lbs)

He may not be the biggest and most athletic but McFadden’s instincts more than make up for any lack of size & athleticism any doubters would point to. After a productive career at Indiana, McFadden improves our depth at LB, which is pretty weak after Campbell & Barnes. Probably can contribute on ST as a rookie also.

 

7.248. Shaun Jolly / CB / Appalachian St

(5’9” / 180 lbs)

Athletic but undersized corner provides needed depth after King, Sullivan, and others leave in free agency. Some long-term potential to take over at nickel with his short-area quickness, but Jolly can pitch in on special teams from Day 1.

 

 

2022 Roster 

Offense

QB: Aaron Rodgers / Jordan Love / Kurt Benkert

RB: Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon / Patrick Taylor / Kylin Hill 

OL: David Bakhtiari / Billy Turner / Yosh Nijman / Elgton Jenkins / Jon Runyan / Royce Newman / Josh Myers / Cordell Volson

WR: Davante Adams / Treylon Burks / Allen Lazard / Alec Pierce / Amari Rodgers / Juwan Winfree 

TE: Josiah Deguara / Cole Turner / Dominique Dafney / Tyler Davis 

 

Defense

DL: Kenny Clark / Dean Lowry / Harrison Phillips / TJ Slaton / Jack Heflin 

EDGE: Rashan Gary / Preston Smith / Arnold Ebiketie / Jonathan Garvin / Tipa Galeai 

ILB: DeVondre Campbell / Krys Barnes / Isaiah McDuffie / Micah McFadden / Ty Summers

CB: Jaire Alexander / Eric Stokes / Rasul Douglas / Mario Goodrich / Shemar Jean-Charles / Shaun Jolly 

S: Adrian Amos / Darnell Savage / Vernon Scott / Smoke Monday

 

Special Teams 

K: Dominick Eberle

P: Corey Bojorquez

LS: Any human not named Steven Wirtel

 

Any feedback is appreciated! Will probably do another one in the next few months so I’d like to hear any likes / dislikes and what I got wrong for tweaking the next one. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by StartBarr

[Sandy]

Smoke Monday?? Nope. No way. That's not a real guy. That's a made up name.

But as for the actual mock...

I like how conservative you went on the savings estimates for cuts/extensions, and possibly a little high on the cap hits for resignings and free agents. Helps ensure that the cap situation is realistic - if anything I think we might save even a few million more than you estimated.

Interesting that you would opt for the three year deal for Lazard and not just the second round tender. I don't think anyone would give up a second for him but this does ensure he gets a real shot to earn a starting spot instead of being the default option.

Love the draft, had Burks in my mock too because I definitely see a world in which he's the 4th or 5th wr off the board due to a slower-than-he-plays 40.

Good edge pick there, man we should be able to get someone like him there that can contribute right away.  Lets hope. 

Not sure about going back to the WR well there in 3 and only would if the value was too good to pass up - the re-signing of Lazard and the possible emergence of Rodgers might mean we'd have bigger needs for depth or a possible starter elsewhere on the roster.

Solid looking prospects in the later rounds for me to look into and learn more about. Except Smoke Monday.  That dude doesn't exist.

[NFLGURU]

1 hour ago, StartBarr said:

 

6.219. Smoke Monday / S / Auburn

(6’3” / 200 lbs)

Core special teamer who can make an impact in that phase of the game now and hopefully can one day contribute as a rotational safety.

 

 

I hope this guy can play or else his name becomes the offenses game plan.

[Brit Pack]

Great job! Love it!!!

[OneTwoSixFive]

I have nothing to say about the money side of things, not something I understand well enough.

I did like the addition of DT/NT Harrison Phillips. Not ideal height, but strongly built, powerful, with a wrestling background and only 26. Once his PCL tear has had an offseason to heal, he will be back to his best. I was liking DT Perrion Winfrey in this draft, but you found a way to free up the first round pick for a WR instead, which is fine.

My (projected) top 4 needs were Edge, WR, TE, DL, and they were all addressed in some fashion. I might have taken a TE before a second WR but that is fairly inconsequential. I liked how you were able to keep Campbell and Douglas. Overall I do like this effort and the priority you placed in where you drafted the position groups. The addition of an OT was a good move, there was never much chance of a starter level OT, with probably 6 available in the first two rounds and four of them in the top 15 picks, so it had to be a more developmental guy. That could help in the future, with Turner gone in your projection.

One point for your next draft. I would be looking for a good return guy on day three. My favourite is CB Marcus Jones (Houston), who is only 5'8", but has plenty of quick twitch moves, as often is the case with smaller guys. He should be a huge upgrade as kick and punt returner (I'm thinking a 4th or higher 5th round pick) and he isn't awful as a CB either. If this is too high a pick for you for a returner, then there is WR Kyle Phillips (UCLA) 5'11", 191, as a 5th or 6th round pick.

PS Ebiketie might be a little light at 250lb for what the Packers look for in an edge, but if he can be another KGB, he'll do fine.

Edited February 27, 2022 by OneTwoSixFive

[StartBarr]

4 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

One point for your next draft. I would be looking for a good return guy on day three. My favourite is CB Marcus Jones (Houston), who is only 5'8", but has plenty of quick twitch moves, as often is the case with smaller guys. He should be a huge upgrade as kick and punt returner (I'm thinking a 4th or higher 5th round pick) and he isn't awful as a CB either. If this is too high a pick for you for a returner, then there is WR Kyle Phillips (UCLA) 5'11", 191, as a 5th or 6th round pick.

Good feedback right here. I think I may go that route in my second mock with Phillips, who can offer value immediately in the return game and maybe pitch in as a 3rd or 4th wideout one day also. Definitely a void that could be addressed right there. I like Jones but I’d likely have to sacrifice adding Volson to include him. May take a TE earlier rather than a second WR, which could offer a spot for drafting Jones.

Appreciate the feedback from everyone!

[StartBarr]

12 hours ago, Sandy said:

Solid looking prospects in the later rounds for me to look into and learn more about. Except Smoke Monday.  That dude doesn't exist.

He’s very real and brings very enticing jersey options for the day after a big win…or when we play on MNF!

[Jaire_Island]

Love It. Enough of defense heavy drafts year over year…

If you are bringing Arod back, give him weapons. 
 

[CWood21]

Honestly didn't spend too much time looking at this mock, but what's the logic with taking Alec Pierce if you're re-signing Davante Adams to a big money deal AND selecting Treylon Burks in the first round?  You have us re-signing Allen Lazard to a 3 year deal, so either Pierce is on the bench or Lazard is being paid a bunch of money to be on the bench for the foreseeable future because the Packers really haven't run much 4 WRs set with LaFleur.

[Les Punting]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly didn't spend too much time looking at this mock, but what's the logic with taking Alec Pierce if you're re-signing Davante Adams to a big money deal AND selecting Treylon Burks in the first round?  You have us re-signing Allen Lazard to a 3 year deal, so either Pierce is on the bench or Lazard is being paid a bunch of money to be on the bench for the foreseeable future because the Packers really haven't run much 4 WRs set with LaFleur.

There's always a certain amount of money sitting on the bench. Lazard's '22 cap hit is $2M and his deal likely doesn't have much guaranteed money. He's insurance against slow development by Burks/Pierce. When those guys transform the offense, Lazard can be traded/cut/renegotiated.  

Overall, it would be a fine offseason. IDL and EDGE were must have additions. There are new bodies in the secondary pipeline and a pair of quality receivers to definitively complete the overdue WR rebuild.  

The problem is that neither Burks nor Pierce should fall to those spots, particularly Pierce.

[Norm]

29 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly didn't spend too much time looking at this mock, but what's the logic with taking Alec Pierce if you're re-signing Davante Adams to a big money deal AND selecting Treylon Burks in the first round?  You have us re-signing Allen Lazard to a 3 year deal, so either Pierce is on the bench or Lazard is being paid a bunch of money to be on the bench for the foreseeable future because the Packers really haven't run much 4 WRs set with LaFleur.

So when we lose in the playoffs after a Rodgers choke nobody can blame his skill positions. 

[StartBarr]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly didn't spend too much time looking at this mock, but what's the logic with taking Alec Pierce if you're re-signing Davante Adams to a big money deal AND selecting Treylon Burks in the first round?  You have us re-signing Allen Lazard to a 3 year deal, so either Pierce is on the bench or Lazard is being paid a bunch of money to be on the bench for the foreseeable future because the Packers really haven't run much 4 WRs set with LaFleur.

Dang it, I was counting on you for contract and salary cap criticism!

You make a very good point tho, especially when you bring the lack of 4 wideout sets in MLF’s system. I just really like Alec Pierce as a player and prospect…I think his ceiling is very high and it’s possible he develops into a true WR1 in the NFL given a couple years. But you may be right, its a bit of an over-investment at the position.
 

Next go I’ll likely grab a guy for the DL in place of double dipping at wideout. Thanks for the feedback!

Edited February 28, 2022 by StartBarr

[StartBarr]

48 minutes ago, Norm said:

So when we lose in the playoffs after a Rodgers choke nobody can blame his skill positions. 

This guy just gets it

[StartBarr]

49 minutes ago, Les Punting said:

The problem is that neither Burks nor Pierce should fall to those spots, particularly Pierce.

Where do you anticipate Pierce going? Mid to late 2nd round? I’ve seen a lot of mocks and rankings with him going at the bottom of the Top 100, which is downright thievery for whoever ends up with him in that scenario.

[CWood21]

20 minutes ago, StartBarr said:

Dang it, I was counting on you for contract and salary cap criticism!

Honestly don't see anything too outrageous on your contracts.  I think you're a tad optimistic on the Rodgers' extension, but nothing crazy.  My projected extension saved the Packers ~$12M, so $16M saved isn't crazy by any means.  Think you'll need to use some money to re-sign Marcedes Lewis and Randall Cobb too since you're going to be appeasing Aaron Rodgers.  And honestly, I think you can backload the Adams' contract to even it out, so a net zero-ish there.  The Rasul Douglas' contract seems short.  I think his agent should be asking for 3/$24M, and if the market keeps going up I think he could push Trae Waynes' contract (3/$42M).  I don't think it gets that far.

25 minutes ago, StartBarr said:

You a very good point tho, especially when you bring the lack of 4 wideout sets in MLF’s system. I just really like Alec Pierce as a player and prospect…I think his ceiling is very high and it’s possible he develops into a true WR1 in the NFL given a couple years. But you may be right, its a bit of an over-investment at the position.

Just doesn't make sense to sign him to a long-term deal only to bench him.  Let him play out his tender and then roll with Adams/Burks/Pierce as your trio.  So unless you're saving money with him, there's no real motivation to sign him to a long-term deal until after the draft.