AZ’s Pre-Combine Mock Offseason

[AZBearsFan]

2022 CAP SPACE (per OTC): $28.65M 

 

RELEASE:

DT Eddie Goldman (saves $6.66M)

ILB Danny Trevathan post-6/1 (saves $3.3M)

OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (saves $1.9M)

RB Tarik Cohen (saves $2.25M)

 

EXTEND:

ILB Roquan Smith 4/70M extension (5/$79.735M deal in total). $20M signing bonus. Base salaries 2022-2026 of 1.5/10/13/16/19.235 (first 2 years salaries fully guaranteed, year 3 mostly guaranteed) for cap hits 5.5/14/17/20/23.235. Massive deal for a great player at the beginning of his prime. 

 

CAP SPACE: $46.99M

 

RE-SIGN:

WR Jakeem Grant 3/9. $2.25M signing bonus. Base salaries 1.5/2.375/2.875. First 2 years guaranteed. Cap hits 2.25/3.125/3.625. Pro bowl returner with gadget play upside on offense gets a contract commensurate with that. Here Grant essentially replaces Cohen on the roster both in role and salary (year 1 cap hit and Cohen cut savings are identical). 

P Pat O’Donnell 2/4 (2/2). He’s a solid but unspectacular punter who’s become more consistent, and as a holder he has good chemistry with Santos.

TE Jesse James 2/3.5 (1.5/2). A move about chemistry. He and Fields clearly had it last year. He’s a solid TE2 option who adds value in the RZ. The TE market is saturated with really talented players this offseason so I think we can get good value here. 

S DeAndre Houston-Carson 2/3 (1.3/1.7). 4-phase ST player for us who’s also played in big nickel situations, and has pretty consistently flashed. I’m not sure he’ll ever get a real defensive opportunity outside of attrition (perhaps this changes with a new regime) but he’s a must keep IMO for his ST value alone. 

S Deon Bush 1/1.5. Very similar to DHC for me - experienced depth and 4-phase ST contributor. In that role he’s a known adequate commodity, and frankly, it’s a position where we need bodies. 

LB Alec Ogletree 1/1 (minimum salary benefit deal)

ERFA:

C Sam Mustipher 1/700k

TE Jesper Horsted 1/700k

 

CAP SPACE: $35.79M

 

FREE AGENCY: 

Offense:

C Brian Allen 5/43.5, $10M signing bonus. Base salaries 3.5/6.25/7.25/7.75/8.5. First 2 years base fully guaranteed. Cap hits 5.5/8.25/9.25/9.75/10.5. Allen is a top 10 center who’s just entering his age 27 season. We need a solid fixture to anchor our line and Allen fits that. We pay a bit of a premium salary-wise here but the need necessitates it IMO. 

WR Will Fuller 2/15, $2M signing bonus. Base salaries 5.5 (guaranteed)/7.5. Cap hits 6.5/8.5. Essentially a prove it deal (we can cut bait after 2022 with just $1M dead next year) for a guy coming off a lost season to injury but who fits the vertical passing offense really well. 2nd tier signing for an experienced starter fits Poles’ stated strategy.

WR Demarcus Robinson 1/1.5. Depth WR who’s started on and off in KC lands here as a depth piece. What you’re getting in him is pretty steady - he’s good for about 30 catches with some red zone ability, he’s played ST, and he’s going to suit up every Sunday (zero missed games in 6 years). He’s basically a placeholder here and an insurance policy knowing we’re going to draft a WR. 

OT Dennis Kelly 1/2. Veteran swing tackle here gives us a fallback option should Jenkins or Borom falter or be injured. Kelly played solid football at RT in GB last year so there’s Getsy familiarity here. 

OG Lucas Patrick 1/1.5. Veteran OG depth can start if needed (28 starts the past 2 seasons in GB due to injuries to others). Talent-wise he’s pretty replacement level. This is a floor setting signing, again with Getsy familiarity. 

Defense:

CB Mike Hughes 4/23, $8M signing bonus. Base salaries 1.5/3.5/4.5/6. First 2 years guaranteed. Cap hits 3.5/5.5/6.5/8. Former 1st rounder for MIN had some injuries earlier in his career but was healthy in 2021 and was pretty effective for KC in their NB role. 4 FF last year, and 7 FF in 41 games from that position is a definite plus. Poles connection. 

CB Patrick Peterson 1/6. CB is without a question IMO our biggest defensive need, and one where we can’t afford to go into 2022 without a clear, established starter. But, it’s also a position that is super pricey in FA. Peterson allows us to split the middle on filling immediate need with a known and the long term outlook as an established, durable short term starter for 2022 while we develop legitimate options behind him. I liked what I saw from Thomas Graham quite a bit but didn’t see enough to feel comfortable turning the keys over to him just yet. 

MLB Anthony Walker 3/10. $1.5M signing bonus. Base salaries 2.25/2.75/3.5. Cap hits 2.75/3.25/4. Flus’ 2020 MLB is a solid player who had a solid but unspectacular last year in CLE. Scheme fit is apparent and the price is manageable, which is key here. 

DT Maliek Collins 3/15. $2.25M signing bonus. Base salaries 2.25/4.75/5.5. Cap hits 3/5.5/6.25. Experienced starter at 3-technique will give some flash plays. Here I’m basically giving him what I’d be willing to give Bilal Nichols financially to stay, but getting a player I know is a solid fit for the scheme instead of projecting/hoping for a fit.

S Andrew Sendejo 1/1. Floor setting veteran stop gap at age 35. Was a starter in IND last year under Flus due to attrition. 

 

CAP SPACE: $5.79M

 

DRAFT: 

Trade: 2-39 to IND for 2-47, 4-121 and 5-159. Trade value chart 510-508.2. IND trades up for their QB of choice since they have no 1st round pick. We get 2 additional picks for a small move down. 

2-47 OL Tyler Smith, Tulsa. As a tackle Smith has a lot of technical flaws that make him a more long term project. I’m not putting him there - I’m putting him at LG. He’s a big, strong, nasty SOB who’s super athletic for his size. He next to Jenkins will give us a left side to run behind that will be out to kill people. We stabilized the roster here in FA. I’m drafting for impact players. The upside for Smith at LG is MASSIVE. 

Trade: 3-71 to HOU for 3-80 and 4-136. Trade value chart 235-228. 

3-80 WR George Pickens, Georgia. I love what Pickens brings to the table. Size (6’3” 200 lb) should make him an early RZ asset. Deep threat. Big play ability. He’s a nasty run blocker at the position too, which will endear him to his teammates, to Poles and to the fans. I think he has Alshon Jeffery upside, but with a mean streak Alshon lacked. In a less loaded WR class he’s significantly higher on the board, but I have him somewhere near WR12 in this group. That’s NOT a knock on him. 

4-121 DT Haskell Garrett, Ohio State. Prototypical 3T for the scheme. Garrett should be able to be a part of the rotation right away on passing downs. 

4-136 CB Josh Jobe, Alabama. Prototype boundary corner size (6’1” 194 lb). An aggressive run game defender on the boundary who excels in zone coverage. I think he needs some seasoning before getting a starter gig. Here he’s competing with Graham for top backup reps and is probably in a position battle with him in 2023 to start opposite Johnson. 

5-148 LB Troy Andersen, Montana State. Pick on development potential. Anderson has prototype size and plays fast but has FBS awareness right now. He’ll be a core ST player right away but has longer term starter potential. 

5-150 S Kolby Harvell-Peel, Oklahoma State. Jacked up SS prospect in the Adrian Amos mold. Solid tackler with good eyes. Lacks center fielder skills but has enough range as a split safety. Not a ball hawk, but will make the plays on the ball that present themselves to him. In the scenario laid out here I think he has a shot to earn early reps. 

5-159 RB Brian Robinson, Alabama. Large, feature back size (6’2” 226 lb) with low wear for his ability due to Bama’s steady stream of NFL talent at RB, Robinson is a battering ram with adequate hands who needs some pass blocking refinement. Here he should have some development time behind Monty and Herbert. 

6-185 OG Justin Shaffer, Georgia. Another OL addition of a player who plays with an edge. Like most, Shaffer can use some technical refinement, but he’s got starter potential. Here he’s a depth option and likely game day inactive in 2022 but a potential Whitehair replacement down the road. 

UDFA

QB D’Eriq King, Miami. We need to develop a long term QB2 with a skill set more similar to Fields. 

FB Clint Ratkovich, Northern Illinois. Versatile lead blocker/H-back is a passing game asset.  

 

DEPTH CHART: 

 

QB Fields, Foles, King 

RB Montgomery, Herbert, Robinson, Ratkovich

WR Mooney, Fuller, Pickens, Robinson, Grant, Newsome

TE Kmet, James, Horsted (Ratkovich)

OT Jenkins, Borom, Kelly

OG Whitehair, Smith, Patrick, Shaffer

C Allen, Mustipher 

 

EDGE Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Kamara

DT Collins, Tonga, Garrett, Edwards, Blackson

LB Smith, Walker, Ogletree, Anderson, C Johnson, Snowden

CB Johnson, Peterson, Hughes, Jobe, Graham

S Jackson, Bush, Harvell-Peel, Houston-Carson, Sendejo

 

K Santos

P O’Donnell 

LS Brinkley

******

- Poles wants to build through the draft, and that’s really what I’m doing here. Outside of Allen and Hughes, and to a lesser extent Collins, these additions are one-year plug ins. I wanted to get us to competent everywhere, then swing for difference makers at the top of the draft. 

- I’m really happy how the CB position transitions here. We have 3 sure fire established starters heading into the season, with 2 competing mid-rounders waiting in the wings to take over from Peterson, who isn’t what he was but at bare minimum he’ll be a competent starter. The dead weight of Shelley, Vildor and Burns are distant memories.

- I wanted to do more with S but ran out of resources. I think there’s enough to work with there for a season if Harvell-Peel isn’t ready for reps right away. I’ve thought for a while that DHC deserved a shot and maybe he gets that now. 

- If we’re not getting a front line WR then I’m happy we ended up with pretty decent depth at the position. Fuller was as much about fit as value, and I loooooove Pickens for us. 

- I don’t love the LB depth but I do like where we’re at with the starters.

- We’re tight against the cap as I have it here, so if need be we can tweak some of the guarantees or maybe add a void year or two onto Peterson’s deal if we have to make any emergency cap space moves. I’d rather we not touch Mack’s or Quinn’s deals for that if possible so as to preserve max value on any potential trade asset for next offseason. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by AZBearsFan

[Madmike90]

This is a real mixed bag for me...hate the FA man...but would crawl over broken glass for that draft 😂

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

This is a real mixed bag for me...hate the FA man...but would crawl over broken glass for that draft 😂

Can you be more specific about what you hate about the FA? 

[Madmike90]

1 minute ago, AZBearsFan said:

Can you be more specific about what you hate about the FA? 

I just don't see enough impact in that FA...Allen I think is being a little overrated...I think as much as we will be a zone team I think we will be one of the bigger zone blocking OLs in football next year so 6-1" 303lbs Brian Allen doesn't really float my boat at that price...the other two OL wouldn't have started over our guys this season...I don't really rate Fuller...have to give Fields someone with consistency...Robinson would be a nice depth pick up...

I like Walker as MLB but not a fan of Peterson these days or indeed Hughes...Collins would be a decent pick up but for less...Don't see any reason to bring on Sendejo given his age and level of play.

[Bowler1215]

Pretty good, I'd like us to draft 2 WRs.  Otherwise looks solid

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

I just don't see enough impact in that FA...Allen I think is being a little overrated...I think as much as we will be a zone team I think we will be one of the bigger zone blocking OLs in football next year so 6-1" 303lbs Brian Allen doesn't really float my boat at that price...the other two OL wouldn't have started over our guys this season...I don't really rate Fuller...have to give Fields someone with consistency...Robinson would be a nice depth pick up...

I like Walker as MLB but not a fan of Peterson these days or indeed Hughes...Collins would be a decent pick up but for less...Don't see any reason to bring on Sendejo given his age and level of play.

FWIW the other 2 OL (Kelly and Patrick) aren’t being signed to start - they’re experienced depth pieces with whom our OC has familiarity. They’re floor setting signings. My personal preference would be for Bozeman over Allen but I think he gets significantly more money.

I’m not totally tied to the idea of Peterson but I was looking for a placeholder there with the longer term investment at NB. That could have been a lot of guys tbh. The Sendejo spot could be any experienced player on a minimum salary benefit deal and fill the same purpose.

[AZBearsFan]

5 minutes ago, Bowler1215 said:

Pretty good, I'd like us to draft 2 WRs.  Otherwise looks solid

I thought about it but I’m intrigued by Newsome as a long term potential slot, and another drafted WR probably forces him off the roster. 

[blkwdw13]

Nit picky but I am not signing O'Donnell for what you have. It is almost double his cap hit last year and it would be the most he has ever made, for an average punter I am looking to up grade and also get cheaper.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, blkwdw13 said:

Nit picky but I am not signing O'Donnell for what you have. It is almost double his cap hit last year and it would be the most he has ever made, for an average punter I am looking to up grade and also get cheaper.

Spotrac shows POD made $1.75M on a 1-year deal last year, after making $1.75M each of the two prior years (2/$3.5M contract 2019-20). They show a $1.075M cap number for last year but I assumed that was a typo unless specialists have a different minimum salary benefit than position players.

The $1.75M salary last year made him the 14th highest paid punter. $2M this year would make him 13th. Average deal for an average punter. I’m not thrilled with O’Donnell and I’d like a better punter too. I’ve been advocating for him to get legit competition in camp for years. But I also value that he’s part of a successful kicking battery with Santos and I don’t want to mess that up either. Changing punters may not impact Santos at all, but after our PK woes post-Gould, now that it’s working I don’t really want to mess with it. 

[StLunatic88]

15 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Allen I think is being a little overrated...

Id say way more than a little. Dude has improved from his garbage rookie year, but is still a liability. Dont fall for the SB winner thing, he was extremely masked by McVay. All that on top of how small he is.

As for the mock, I think you are being very generous to yourself on some of these Free Agent contracts. Feels like youve got alot of guys taking peanuts in year one to come here, it doesnt often work like that unless you are a Super Bowl favorite.  

Not sure why we would spend money on a guy like Gant any further, a soon to be 30 at best gadget guy? 

Not going to get too worried about the Punter position, at most you are saving like $1.5m if you go with a rookie. 

I wouldnt touch Fuller, its just a mess. And I feel like Robinson can get that exact deal from the Chiefs, so why would he take that here?

I liked your attack at the CB spot, but not necessarily the guys you went with for it.

 

**Also, can we get a ruling on our starting cap apace? You called out $28.65 from OTC, but oin the Bears page Im seeing $25.33 from OTC, and Ive even seen some articles try to cite amounts above the $30m mark

Edited March 1, 2022 by StLunatic88

[AZBearsFan]

48 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

As for the mock, I think you are being very generous to yourself on some of these Free Agent contracts. Feels like youve got alot of guys taking peanuts in year one to come here, it doesnt often work like that unless you are a Super Bowl favorite.  

They’re not taking less money at all year 1. The deals are structured with signing bonuses so the cap hits are low but the up front money isn’t at all. Roquan’s deal is a $5.5M cap hit but his year 1 cash is $21.5M. Allen year 1 cap hit $5.5M but year 1 cash is $13.5M. Hughes year 1 cap hit $3.5M but $9.5M year 1 cash.

52 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I wouldnt touch Fuller, its just a mess. And I feel like Robinson can get that exact deal from the Chiefs, so why would he take that here?

The thought with Robinson was that he’s got a chance at a bigger role here than in KC. He was essentially phased out last year in favor of Pringle, who I expect them to bring back. I also think they’ll draft a WR high with Hill and Kelce starting to age. I agree Fuller is a risk. He’s a pretty well down on my choice of who I’d actually want. He’s a skill set fit for a vertical passing attack though, and from Poles’ comments I think guys like Mike Williams, Chark, Gallup, Godwin and Adams are well off his radar. 

53 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

**Also, can we get a ruling on our starting cap apace? You called out $28.65 from OTC, but oin the Bears page Im seeing $25.33 from OTC, and Ive even seen some articles try to cite amounts above the $30m mark

It showed $28.65M when I started writing this a few days back. It’s changed sporadically for reasons I haven’t figured out. We haven’t made any moves since I saw it at $28.65M so I didn’t re-check it before posting.

[AZBearsFan]

Listening to Poles’ combine presser made me like my first mock better 😂 

[beardown3231]

Free agency isn't sexy which is fine because a lot of teams win without big spending, but I don't like Allen or Fuller. Allen is only a big name because he plays for the Rams. For that money they can bring in Bozeman. Saying Fuller had a lost season due to injury isn't doing all of his other lost seasons due to injury any justice. 

Otherwise I can see it playing out. They have cap space but that's only because of so many UFA's and RFA's. I can't see them making a big move.

For the draft I like it a lot. I like Pickens, Harvell-Peel and Smith a lot

Edited March 1, 2022 by beardown3231

[blkwdw13]

20 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Spotrac shows POD made $1.75M on a 1-year deal last year, after making $1.75M each of the two prior years (2/$3.5M contract 2019-20). They show a $1.075M cap number for last year but I assumed that was a typo unless specialists have a different minimum salary benefit than position players.

The $1.75M salary last year made him the 14th highest paid punter. $2M this year would make him 13th. Average deal for an average punter. I’m not thrilled with O’Donnell and I’d like a better punter too. I’ve been advocating for him to get legit competition in camp for years. But I also value that he’s part of a successful kicking battery with Santos and I don’t want to mess that up either. Changing punters may not impact Santos at all, but after our PK woes post-Gould, now that it’s working I don’t really want to mess with it. 

The holding is the least of my worries, they get to practice it enough that they'll get it sorted out. But at your price just having a punter that will make $750,000 will save over a million to be used some where else and also have a chance to improve on the position. I just really think him at $2 mil is way over spending on the position for his caliber.

[Sugashane]

This is a good mock. There are some pieces to build around and to give Poles and Eberflus another full offseason to mold the team how they want. Fuller's speed would be great if we can keep Fields upright and he can stay healthy. 

 

Love getting Pickens but even with how much WR talent I feel like he will be off the board if his combine medical look promising.