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TCMD '18 GM mock draft build (open discussion)


ny92mike

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It's November and I'm slowly getting things together for next years mock draft.  Lots of things going on and several new features I'm looking to add. 

Should anyone have interest in helping me out, it would be much appreciated.  Need to nail down the rules/ guidelines so that I can start building the docs, doing this takes some time so the sooner the better.

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Sure I've missed some names, but everyone is welcome to join in the discussion.

 

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Should we have a pre-june 1st end date within this mock draft?  If so, when?  

OverTheCap explains it pretty well here, if you aren't familiar with the seperation.

Quote

 

One of the questions I get a lot deals with what a “post June 1” cut is and how designating someone a June 1 cut helps my team. So lets talk a bit about that today.

What we are talking about here deals strictly with the acceleration of prorated bonus money onto the current years salary cap. The NFL essentially breaks up its salary cap accounting for bonuses into two periods with June 1 being the trigger date. When a player is removed from a players roster prior to June 1st all his remaining unamortized bonus money immediately accelerates onto the salary cap. To illustrate this we see how the Kansas City Chiefs gave Steve Breaston a $5 million dollar signing bonus in 2011, which was accounted as $1 million in yearly expenses over the course of his 5 year contract. When he was released just the other day he had only completed 2 years of his 5 year contract meaning the Chiefs salary cap had only accounted for $2 million of the $5 million paid in 2011. The balance of $3 million dollars immediately accelerates onto the Chiefs 2013 salary cap.

After June 1 the NFL changes the way the acceleration works.  After June 1st only the current years expense remains on the books after the player is released. The balance accelerates onto the following years salary cap. So in Breastons case had the Chiefs waited until June 1st to release him his salary cap charge in 2013 would have been $1 million and in 2014 he still would be on the books at $2 million dollars.

This rule is really another way in which the league holds tremendous power over the players.  In some cases the acceleration of bonus money could throw a teams salary cap into chaos, if higher than the players current cap charge as an active player. Since teams need to remain under the cap at all times once the League Year begins the potential of the acceleration onto the current years cap would prevent a players release and allow them to continue earning their salary for the year. Instead they are thrust into a pool of summertime free agents when most teams are strapped for cap space and have made many of the decisions about their roster.

I think where many people get confused, though, is when they hear that “player x” could be designated a June 1 cut and immediately jump to conclusions that it means a spending spree in March. The league allows each team to designate up to two players per year as a June 1 cut for cap purposes prior to June 1. It’s the one concession that was given to the players as it allows a player to be cut in March and have time to explore free agency but have his cap hit spread out over two seasons, thus creating more cap space in the current year.   The issue though is the mechanism by which this works.

When you designate someone as a June 1 cut the player and his current contract remain on the books until June 1. Going back to the Breaston example has he been designated a June 1 cut his cap charge today would not be $1 million with $2 million on the books in 2014. His cap charge would be $5 million dollars, the same cap charge as if they never cut him at all. When June 1st hits his cap then moves down to $1 million and the other $2 million accelerate into the 2014 season. By that point in time free agency is finished and the extra cap room does not do the team much good. They would have been in a far better cap position during the important time of free agency by releasing Breaston outright as the Chiefs did.

The real purpose of the June 1 designation option is to benefit teams that have poor salary cap situations and need to either create space for rookie signings over the summer months or to cut players from the roster whose dead money charges are greater than their charge to remain on the team. In recent years this would be teams like the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders who have entered into some overpriced contracts for multiple players leaving them tight against the cap every season. The acceleration from one of these underperforming players would put the team over the cap or close enough to it to make it difficult to sign the draft class. Often waiting until June 1 is not an option because of offseason bonus money that would be due to the player if he is on the roster so the only option is to designate him a June 1 cut. So the rule gives the team the ability to avoid paying the player a bloated salary while also avoiding more cap problems. But by no means is it going to be a way to spend more money in the early stages of free agency and it does nothing to improve a teams cap position in March.

 

 

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14 hours ago, IDOG_det said:

I can always try to help where I can

Thanks man.

This is the time of year when I'm overthinking the structure of this mock draft in looking for ways to create enhanced game planning and such.  

Earlier I was trying to create a Pre-June and Post June 1st separation within the mock that was actually moving away from realism so I've decided to can this idea.

Currently @MKnight82and @jrry32are looking over how to refine the formulas used to determine the highest bid as well as looking for possible ways to use base guarantees.  Figuring out base guarantees is proving harder to use than originally thought.  I remember a few years back in the ffmd mock draft that they used this and it just seemed that the majority of the contracts that were submitted, the teams just maxed out this option where several of the contracts were 100% guaranteed.  

The trick to using base guarantees and really the entire contract outside of the current year really falls on monitoring the future cap spending to limit the amount of money that is pushed into the future.  To manage this without help with updating rosters, would require expanding the turnaround time for each free agency bidding round.  Personally, I'd hate to have to alter the turnaround times, when if I had someone helping me out for an hour after each bidding round is announced to help me update rosters would resolve this, so I'm asking for help with this event.

 

 

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Since I'm rebuilding the majority of the docs this year, I need to work out a few things as soon as a can.  Just so that I'm not scrabbling to rebuild the docs a month out from the start date.

I'm mainly because the previous ones have had things added in based on rule changes or just enhancements that are likely slowing down the processing times.  Rebuilding the docs using the proper formulas should speed things up a little as well as make it easier for me to track each transaction, so it is something that needs to be done.

Most of the items that I want to discuss pertains to using base guarantees, current and future salary cap accounting that could limit the age old debate of overbidding.  Other things pertain to the look and operation of the google doc workbooks.  Getting these two things squared away would allow me to start building these docs without fear of running out of time.  So rather than keep blasting many of you with questions via private message, I'm going to use this thread to have an open discussion about it.

Proposals

Problem:  One of the issues has been overbidding, typically this isn't an issue under this system.  Most contract offers don't exceed 20% of the expected APY however the more valued players do get contract offers that are well above this figure.

Resolve:  The current rule allows teams to bid slightly over what they currently have and are required to be under the cap before heading into the following bidding round.  What I'd like to do is to expand upon this rule.  So if you created a contract that exceeded the current year's available cap over X percentage it would be rejected immediately.  Since I don't have a formula that would easily calculate the Top 51 within the transaction workbook and I believe doing so would create too many calculations that would slow it down to the point of crashing, the percentage would need to be higher than the displayed available cap.  I will definitely look to see if creating an exact top 51 amount is possible without bogging the system down and if I can figure that out, we could use that number to limit the amount being offered.  Now this would be applied to each individual bid and not a running total for all three UFA offers.

Future salary cap would be used in similar fashion, will post more about this later.  

Questions, concerns or suggestions?

 

 

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Over the past, there has been the minor issue with some teams releasing higher paid players late in the fa rounds, only to resign them at a discounted rate.  Some cases for as cheap as the vet min, saving the team millions. 

I've got a couple options to close this loophole, the first is probably the easiest and would carry the least amount of issues, in that if you release a player from your roster, you must wait 3 or 4 rounds before being allowed to resign, regardless when the player is released.  So if the player is released during the 3rd FA round of bidding, they wouldn't be allowed to make an offer on the player again until round 6 or 7.  If released during round 10 of fa bidding, the team wouldn't be allowed to resign him since there is only 12 rounds of bidding.

This process would at least allow the player to potentially get signed by another team without being overlooked.

The other process, is to use a 48 hour duration before the free agent takes a deduction in preferred income.  So if a player is released at any point in the mock draft, they would enter the free agency wanting the maximum in salary.  While I think this would allow for more talent for the later rounds, it could create some issues with chasing the clock.  

Thoughts?

 

Also, anyone wanna wager if or when the front office of the Giants, fire their head coach?

 

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Ok...This is what I've got and plan to use as the free agency bidding sheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RtcmJjcZzbss7Q2BugaiW-bUHu2DTR7NP3Pdtz_ZZ88/edit?usp=sharing

As for the layout and design, I've really only changed a couple things, but feel that these will make it easier on you guys.

  • Using the drop down list to select the player now contains the players expected APY and contract length.
  • I've expanded the validations for approving the contract.
  • The drop down list to select the number of contract years is limited to equal to or less than the players preferred contract length.

Guaranteed Roster Bonuses

I'm on the fence about adding this, because really all this has created is the need to use guaranteed funding to improve your odds of being rewarded the player.  Nonetheless, this is what we've come up with.  

The first year, the roster bonus cannot go over 200% of the base salary, meaning if you offer 2 million in base salary you can't offer more than 4 million in year one.  Years two & three 100% and year four 50% anything after that the roster bonus cannot be used.  

Contract Value to determine "highest bid"

We use the Net Present Value formula or NPV to determine the highest bid.  The most important salary in a contract is the signing bonus, the second is guaranteed base salary (in this case Roster bonuses) and last non-guaranteed funding in the form of base salary or workout bonuses.  The NPV uses percentages to devalue future salaries.  The current percentages are seen in the doc, cell range E16 to F21.  Cell F24 displays the adj. contract amount that will be used with all the other contracts being offered to determine the "highest bid".  

Because we've included guaranteed funding, you'll want to structure the contract that provides the player with the most guaranteed funding as possible as both Signing bonus NPV (0%), and Guaranteed Roster Bonus (4%) are valued over Base Salary (12%).

This doc allows you to test it out, all cells colored in light blue are unlocked to allow you to edit them, so please check it out and let me know what you think.

quick note that the link for the instructional video isn't active.

Any questions concerns or suggestions let me know otherwise I'll assume that this is ok and I'll press on with other work.

 

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